Saucy

Deep Dynasty Draft Strategy

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Recently joined a 20 team, H2H points, keep forever dynasty league. Its my first league like this, I was wondering how people approach the first draft? Obviously its incredibly important as it lays the foundation for you team for the next several years.

 

My strategy I think is going to be avoiding pitching early as pitchers tend to be more volatile? I don't want my 2nd or 3rd round picks to be done producing for me in only a couple of years... Thoughts??

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19 minutes ago, jasonpark87 said:

Vlad Jr in the first round.

Wander Franco second.

 

Is a guy like Wander Franco really a better 2nd round pick then some other young but proven stud...?

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There are a few ways to go about first year dynasty drafts and it all depends on what you want to achieve and you also have to realize other people will be using similar strategies.

 

1st: you can not worry about age too much and get the best value available to win immediately, this could win you a few championships, but also lead to you falling out of favor in a few years and having to rebuild completely

 

2nd: Aim for players all under 28 and also aim for players that haven't hit their ceiling yet, this is the safest way to go about a draft like this, get the best talent available, but dont let yourself draft any players on their decline.  Obviously doesn't hurt to pick up a couple old guys if someone like Verlander drops to the 8th-10th round or something, but thats unlikely cause someone will be going with strategy 1.

 

3rd: Just load up on the best prospects in the game.  1st round: Vlad/Acuna/Soto 2nd round: Robles/wander/Eloy/Tatis 3rd Round: Whitley/Senzel/Adell...etc etc.  You can obviously mix in more established guys 25 and under, but this is the throw first few years to hopefully have an absolutely unstoppable team in 3-5 years.

 

I'm on year 8 of my one dynasty league and did the 2nd strategy here, won years 4 and 5 and have been in the top 3 5 of the 7 years total and am still in contention.  One team did the 1st strategy, won the first year and is just getting competitive again now.  There were 3-5 teams that drafted without any of these strategies in mind and just took best value and none have ever come close to winning.  The top 3 teams did a similar strategy to the 2nd option here and have/still are on top overall.

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2 hours ago, Saucy said:

Recently joined a 20 team, H2H points, keep forever dynasty league. Its my first league like this, I was wondering how people approach the first draft? Obviously its incredibly important as it lays the foundation for you team for the next several years.

 

My strategy I think is going to be avoiding pitching early as pitchers tend to be more volatile? I don't want my 2nd or 3rd round picks to be done producing for me in only a couple of years... Thoughts??

 

1) When people think "dynasty" more often than not owners go nuts trying to get every young prospect type that there is and have this insane thought process that they are gonna win for years and years to come by getting all the young players. That typically is a bad spot to to be in. Go for a good compromise. Some vets mixed in with some youth.

 

2). Have a "now" mentality if possible, do not discount owning veterans. I typically think about always being in a 1 to 3 year window to win. If i win this year great, if not, then I will win ( or go for for it ) to win within 3 years...

 

3) Do not always rebuild when having a down season. Not necessary .

 

I would get many bats initially, then sprinkle in some good pitching in the middle rounds. But load up on good solid bats first.

 

 

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Exactly. Vets have such a repressed value in these leagues you can really live off a team of strong mercenaries surrounded by a few studs. As long as you have a handful of foundation players. You can re-tool every year around your cornerstones.

 

Aggressively attack far off upside prospects, or very close to major prospects guys who are underrated. Basically guys who have the best potential to raise in their stock.

 

Tatis's, Juan Soto's, Ronald Acuna's before they become them.  Easier said then done, but if you trust your process you will eventually run yourself into one are many of trial and error. Path of way way less resistance then ever trying to acquire top prospects when they are top prospects.  While keeping an eye on the close to majors guys that didn't show up on prospect lists.

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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If everybody else is taking Major League talent, you can set yourself up for a good team by going VERY prospect heavy; if nobody else is doing this, you can end up with a stacked prospect team and high draft picks for the first couple years. In retrospect, nobody in our league did this when we started. The first guy who committed to tanking had a dominant team within 3 years. If I was starting over again, that's probably how I would approach it.

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I planned to go young in my startup last year (I had first overall), but when Blackmon and Kluber were available at the 2-3 turn, I couldn't resist.

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First thing, your league uses points instead of categories, so know your scoring system. Do certain types of players score well? How do pitchers score vs. hitters? In general I think you're right that hitters are safer investments, but I've seen leagues where aces get huge points and can be worth more than even Trout or Betts.

 

As for whether to go old or young, it's best not to commit either way too early. Get some stars in their 20s in the first few rounds that will work with any strategy, then as you see the draft unfold, try to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing and go where the value is.

 

I also consider how stable the league is likely to be. People bail on dynasty leagues - sometimes real life gets in the way, other times their team just sucks and they stop caring. Nobody wants to spend 3-4 years carefully assembling an army of prospects only to watch the league go under as they all break out. If you don't know your leaguemates real well, you might want to go vet heavy and try to win the first 2-3 years. If the league folds you made the right call. If it turns out to be an awesome league, then as your old guys decline you'll have a lot of fun rebuilding.

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

First thing, your league uses points instead of categories, so know your scoring system. Do certain types of players score well? How do pitchers score vs. hitters? In general I think you're right that hitters are safer investments, but I've seen leagues where aces get huge points and can be worth more than even Trout or Betts.

 

 

FGpoints, so I think the top pitchers generally outperform the top hitters, though not by much. I still don't think that justifies going after pitching early in a dynasty because of how volatile and how short the shelf life of pitchers are.

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Aside from firmly grasping the settings, theres also something to be said about identifying the personalities of your peer group to determine team direction. Through networking/communicating with fellow league mates you can identify what players/positions are over/under valued, and proceed accordingly.  Also nice to build rapport to assist in future trade negotiations.

 

As previous contributors mentioned, the psychology in a dynasty is often (to a fault) synonymous with placing surplus value on youth.  “Contenders” & “Rebuilders” will often covet similar players, age 27 or below, which saturates the market, and creates greater  acquisition value opportunities within veteran talent.  Being north of 30 years old is not a death sentence….Don’t be afraid to take the elder statesman to accelerate your clock towards capturing a league championship.   

 

At least one owner in every dynasty league tends to put meteoric value on acquiring the “next big thing”, so capitalize off that inflation.  Players will often carry more helium as a minor leaguer, than what they ultimately materialize into at the professional level.  If you own a coveted prospect, explore trade options to optimize value.  The minor league pool is bottomless.  There will always be opportunity to backfill if you do your due diligence.   

 

Hope this helps!

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On 2/5/2019 at 11:00 AM, Saucy said:

 

Is a guy like Wander Franco really a better 2nd round pick then some other young but proven stud...?

No

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On 2/5/2019 at 10:21 AM, Saucy said:

Recently joined a 20 team, H2H points, keep forever dynasty league. Its my first league like this, I was wondering how people approach the first draft? Obviously its incredibly important as it lays the foundation for you team for the next several years.

 

My strategy I think is going to be avoiding pitching early as pitchers tend to be more volatile? I don't want my 2nd or 3rd round picks to be done producing for me in only a couple of years... Thoughts??

* I would not devert too far from traditional ADP and I would take advantage of the fact that several will "overdraft" youth and by drafting best available (most of whom are not what I would call "old") you have a really good chance to build a winner in the next couple of years. 

 

* Understand your league rules:  We have minor league draft where you essentially can take anyone you want.  I would be looking at foreign players not on prospect lists  as well as the players likely to be at the top of this years Amateur draft - these are the guys who quickly emerge in the top 100 but they can be good discounts in Dynasty and Minor League type drafts.  Some leagues dont allow this, so knowing rules and settings is important. 

 

Honestly odds are that the league wont make it, not trying to be harsh, just a reality so dont worry about winning some league 4 or 5 years from now that experience says wont even be around. 

 

follow me on twitter @hackerschamp

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On 2/6/2019 at 5:20 AM, tingyangs6 said:

Draft the best hitters and punt on pitching 

 

I think this is what I am planning on doing, but it is a 24 team league - If I wait too long, the pitching market will be barren as hell.

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A 24-team league definitely affects the prospect strategy too.

 

In a 12-teamer you can just swing for the fences, take 17-18 year olds with huge upside and hope to strike gold, because there will always be passable MLB players on the wire to pick up. But with 24 teams replacement level will be very low, so you may want to use your prospect space on safer players closer to the majors.

 

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21 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

In a 12-teamer you can just swing for the fences, take 17-18 year olds with huge upside and hope to strike gold, because there will always be passable MLB players on the wire to pick up. But with 24 teams replacement level will be very low, so you may want to use your prospect space on safer players closer to the majors.

 

 

Yeah this was my thinking as well. I don't think I'm going to end up with many (if any) of the top, elite prospects. Just would rather have the safety of an established MLB player in the early rounds because it may prove difficult to get everyday players at every position.

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On 2/5/2019 at 5:19 PM, Hanghow said:

If everybody else is taking Major League talent, you can set yourself up for a good team by going VERY prospect heavy; if nobody else is doing this, you can end up with a stacked prospect team and high draft picks for the first couple years. In retrospect, nobody in our league did this when we started. The first guy who committed to tanking had a dominant team within 3 years. If I was starting over again, that's probably how I would approach it.

 

 

Essentially did this in year 1 of my dynasty league last year as I was the only team that blew it up so quick and stacked my team with elite prospects. Had my draft last year and absolutely hated my team 6 weeks into it as most of my guys looked horrid. Traded most of my good players who had great name value still that was off 2 slow starts but kept my elite young talent. By seasons end those same guys (Hosmer, Schoop etc.) that were off 2 slow starts absolutely stunk all year. So I obviously made the right call as I would have never been able to get the same value (Senzel, Sixto Sanchez etc.) in return if I waited another month or 2. So now I am in year 2 of this league and about 55-60 percent of my team is prospects. As I look to make deals and poss. try to compete I find myself caught in-between. A lot of my elite prospects are 2 and 3 years away so what 2 do?? I did make a trade recently where I sent Whitley, Senzel and another decent prospect in return for Snell. But like I said you really get caught inbetween now because my team is just not ready to compete. If I had 2 do it all over again I would do the same thing but I have to tell myself to trust the process really and hold back. You also get concerned that these elite prospects don't live up 2 the hype and don't pan out so sometimes you also maybe should strike and trade some of them for great elite young talent already in the majors.

Edited by chud12

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My league is 14 teams, been going for 15 years now. We added Farm Draft (started with five rounds, now we narrowed it down to just three rounds). We have eight roster slots on the farm that we can do whatever we want with as long as they are under 50 IP and 130 AB’s. 

I’ve drafted likes of : Cain, Kershaw, McCutchen , Harper etc over the years. 

I would lean towards a stud bat over an arm, but my league values SP high within our six keeper strategy (K9 H2H stat). 

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On 2019-02-09 at 6:13 PM, chud12 said:

 

Essentially did this in year 1 of my dynasty league last year as I was the only team that blew it up so quick and stacked my team with elite prospects. Had my draft last year and absolutely hated my team 6 weeks into it as most of my guys looked horrid. Traded most of my good players who had great name value still that was off 2 slow starts but kept my elite young talent. By seasons end those same guys (Hosmer, Schoop etc.) that were off 2 slow starts absolutely stunk all year. So I obviously made the right call as I would have never been able to get the same value (Senzel, Sixto Sanchez etc.) in return if I waited another month or 2. So now I am in year 2 of this league and about 55-60 percent of my team is prospects. As I look to make deals and poss. try to compete I find myself caught in-between. A lot of my elite prospects are 2 and 3 years away so what 2 do?? I did make a trade recently where I sent Whitley, Senzel and another decent prospect in return for Snell. But like I said you really get caught inbetween now because my team is just not ready to compete. If I had 2 do it all over again I would do the same thing but I have to tell myself to trust the process really and hold back. You also get concerned that these elite prospects don't live up 2 the hype and don't pan out so sometimes you also maybe should strike and trade some of them for great elite young talent already in the majors.

That’s a lot to give up for Snell. League heavy on keeping SPS/K9 league ?

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5 minutes ago, clutchness said:

That’s a lot to give up for Snell. League heavy on keeping SPS/K9 league ?

 

It is extremely hard to trade for pitching in this league and its not a k9 league. The prospect failure rate is huge as you know so I am just picking my spots on who I’m trading and trying to get back young talent already in the bigs so maybe I speed up my rebuild by a year or 2. 

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I did that going very prospect heavy in my first deep dynasty draft and it sucks. Many prospects don't live up to the hype and they never come to the big league at the same time ... You really are going to wait 3 to 5 + years in the minors and watch them developp and struggle in the MLB for a couple of years ? No one is like Mike Trout straight out of the gate

 

And SP prospects are soooo volatile. 

 

No more

 

Now I draft heavy on hitters in the beginning , get a couple great prospects that are crushing AT LEAST AA and AAA ball and the last rounds  I draft a s--- load of SP , there's sooooo many sleepers and under the radar guys at that position.

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge
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6 minutes ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

I did that going very prospect heavy in my first deep dynasty draft and it sucks. Many prospects don't live up to the hype and they never come to the big league at the same time ... You really are going to wait 3 to 5 + years in the minors and watch them developp and struggle in the MLB for a couple of years ? No one is like Mike Trout straight out of the gate

 

And SP prospects are soooo volatile. 

 

No more

 

Now I draft heavy on hitters in the beginning , get a couple great prospects that are crushing AT LEAST AA and AAA ball and the last rounds  I draft a s--- load of SP , there's sooooo many sleepers and under the radar guys at that position.

 

Agree completley. Got to have the prospects though to get elite talent hopefully back. 

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On 2/9/2019 at 8:13 PM, chud12 said:

 

Essentially did this in year 1 of my dynasty league last year as I was the only team that blew it up so quick and stacked my team with elite prospects. Had my draft last year and absolutely hated my team 6 weeks into it as most of my guys looked horrid. Traded most of my good players who had great name value still that was off 2 slow starts but kept my elite young talent. By seasons end those same guys (Hosmer, Schoop etc.) that were off 2 slow starts absolutely stunk all year. So I obviously made the right call as I would have never been able to get the same value (Senzel, Sixto Sanchez etc.) in return if I waited another month or 2. So now I am in year 2 of this league and about 55-60 percent of my team is prospects. As I look to make deals and poss. try to compete I find myself caught in-between. A lot of my elite prospects are 2 and 3 years away so what 2 do?? I did make a trade recently where I sent Whitley, Senzel and another decent prospect in return for Snell. But like I said you really get caught inbetween now because my team is just not ready to compete. If I had 2 do it all over again I would do the same thing but I have to tell myself to trust the process really and hold back. You also get concerned that these elite prospects don't live up 2 the hype and don't pan out so sometimes you also maybe should strike and trade some of them for great elite young talent already in the majors.

 

If you’re drafting all prospects you have to accept that your team is gonna suck for 3-5 years.  You’re literally just sitting back and waiting until they’re all around 24-27 and the core of your team.  Taking advantage of prospect stock with proximity to the majors is huge in this strategy because you can flip prospects that are high up on rankings simply due to proximity while focusing on keeping on the highest upside prospects in the meantime.  While I don’t think your Whitley for snell trade was the best, I do think trading SP prospects is a good practice as well

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