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Luke Weaver 2019 Outlook

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13 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Another Gem tonight. 

 

This guy is great 

Looking like it.  Adam Jones helped him out tonight, with amusingly no thanks from Weaver, but he still pitched a pretty good game.  A shame they couldn't score after they took Soroka out, but oh well I guess.

Best thing for his career being traded from St. Louis...

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Yeah 7 IP with only 3H and 1R is some fine work, esp against solid braves lineup. Here are how the pitches looked last night:

FB- sat 94.6 MPH and even pumped in 99+, great vertical action, threw 48--31 strikes with 24 swings and 4 whiffs.

CH- 84 MPH, threw 22--14 strikes with 12 swings and a whiff.

FC- just stoked he is continuing to commit to this pitch, splits his velo spectrum very nicely at 89 MPH on average, great dive and dart action to the offering as well. He threw 22--15 for strikes with 10 swings and 5! whiffs on it.

CU- another reason to buy into what he's doing...this pitch complements his repertoire well. Decent little tilt to it and comes in two ticks below the CH at 82 MPH. He spun up 14--6 strikes with 4 swings and 2 whiffs.

These metrics are showing a legit 4 pitch mix imo...I can't say I have ever really seen that before from him. Also seeing marked velo increase too. IF someone is asleep on his potential I'd be looking to buy here. He's no ace, but could be a useful guy to anchor the middle of a fantasy rotation yet.

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he was definitely bailed out by adam jones, but other than that he looked really good.

 

saw him alot while he was in st louis and he looked like a completely different pitcher than his tiem in stl.

 

not ready to eat crow on him just yet, but its cookin baby!

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I'd count on 2 starts, yes. Godley is nothing more than an 'opener' of sorts now, apparently. I think they will keep Weaver on regular schedule.

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15 minutes ago, checkers said:

is he a 2 start SP this week?

 

Curious, are you benching him if not?  He's been on fire for a month!

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3 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Curious, are you benching him if not?  He's been on fire for a month!

 

In a point league, I'd start him if he's a 2 start SP.... not to mention the opponents look favorable as well.

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So I traded him away just because his value was high, but definitely start him at this point against almost anyone. He looks awesome. Until he shows otherwise I think you treat him like a must start right now. 

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16 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

So I traded him away just because his value was high, but definitely start him at this point against almost anyone. He looks awesome. Until he shows otherwise I think you treat him like a must start right now. 

 

Agree, that's what I was getting at.  He's to the point where he's an autostart regardless of how many starts he has this week.  Obviously if he starts faltering we re-evaluating, and if you have an all star team of aces maybe it doesn't apply.  But it's odd to me to see someone questioning how many starts he gets this week.  I have him on a couple rosters and never considered benching him at this point.

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24 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Agree, that's what I was getting at.  He's to the point where he's an autostart regardless of how many starts he has this week.  Obviously if he starts faltering we re-evaluating, and if you have an all star team of aces maybe it doesn't apply.  But it's odd to me to see someone questioning how many starts he gets this week.  I have him on a couple rosters and never considered benching him at this point.

I think his biggest thing will be how he handles the inevitable implosion eventually. It’s all mental for him. 

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6 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

I think his biggest thing will be how he handles the inevitable implosion eventually. It’s all mental for him. 

But why does he have to suffer an implosion?  His stats aren't so ridiculously good that he needs any massive correction.

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2 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

But why does he have to suffer an implosion?  His stats aren't so ridiculously good that he needs any massive correction.

Maybe he doesn’t! What do I know lol. I just figure eventually it happens to everyone. 

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10 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Maybe he doesn’t! What do I know lol. I just figure eventually it happens to everyone. 

Everybody has a bad start every so often.  I was just pointing out that he doesn't necessarily have to implode, aka the "stat correction start(s)".  His stats are really good, but it's not like Soroka who has an ERA barely above 1 (not saying Mike's not still really good of course).  No big deal in the end.

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23 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

But why does he have to suffer an implosion?  His stats aren't so ridiculously good that he needs any massive correction.

 

Yup. His FIP is similar to his ERA (2.91 FIP, 2.98 ERA) and his xFIP is 3.51. His xFIP likely is a better indicator of where he will finish but if so he will turn a massive profit relative to acquisition cost. 

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I watched him on the cardinals,  and he looks dominant at times, but he throws lots of pitches with his strikeouts. He would get in trouble around the 3rd or 4th inning. He seems to be doing much better this year with that. I had him pegged in as a great long reliever almost like a hader after watching him last season. He can be really good if he is able to keep his pitch count under control. He was a big time prospect in the cardinals system.  Hopefully he will be able to put it all together for a full season. 

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4 minutes ago, CJT said:

I watched him on the cardinals,  and he looks dominant at times, but he throws lots of pitches with his strikeouts. He would get in trouble around the 3rd or 4th inning. He seems to be doing much better this year with that. I had him pegged in as a great long reliever almost like a hader after watching him last season. He can be really good if he is able to keep his pitch count under control. He was a big time prospect in the cardinals system.  Hopefully he will be able to put it all together for a full season. 

One of the biggest differences is likely the fact that he nibbled a lot with the Cardinals, but doesn't seem to be doing that anywhere near as much with Arizona.  He got behind in the count way too much, so then he'd be forced into throwing bad pitches and he'd get knocked around.   At least until he started to collapse near the end of 2017 and pretty much the whole 2018 season.

Obviously his motion is also a bit different, with him no longer having his one leg touch the ground in the middle of the windup.

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He certainly flashed plenty with the Cards, but this appears to be a different guy right now. The cutter he has been bringing out is a difference maker. The curve has been better than the get-me-over pitch from his STL days too. It also seems like he's comfortably up at least 2 ticks in velo. Then you factor in a great defense behind him and the humidor too...I think he is really gonna be profitable.

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Yeah that is not ideal. A month on the IL is prob the best case scenario. 

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Not good... Crossing fingers nothing serious he has been very good 

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Just now, hangin n wangin said:

Wow, this sucks.

Pretty much.  He's finally become the pitcher we thought he was going to be, and he's actually been one of the most consistent starters in all of baseball so far.  Might not have reached the heights of some people's best games this season, but really consistent regardless.

If he's out for even a decent length period of time, that's a huge loss.

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