Flyman75

Jesse Winker 2019 Outlook

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There was some discussion about Winker in the sleeper thread, and I thought he deserved his own thread :). 

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He's had a bum shoulder since 2014! Adjusted his swing to make it work so that he could get to the show. Prospect guys always wondered why his power suddenly disappeared in the minors and that is the answer. 

 

Guy could be a hitting savant for all we know. He was 6th in OBP last year. His xWOBA was 36th last year. Career OBP is .397 without being a "power threat". That tells you how good his eye is. Because pitchers were not nibbling on him. 

 

His June/July last year were outrageous before he decided to get the surgery. Who the hell goes on a 1.000 OPS tear with a bum shoulder? This guy is a wide awake sleeper. 

 

He could be the 70 hit tool, 60 game power type hitter he was always pegged to be. 

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Does he play? Not looking like there is a spot with him in CIN with the new acquisitions and Senzel shifting from INF to CF.

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He doesn't hit lefties as of yet. That's his only wart. Righties not gonna like facing the Reds. 

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22 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Does he play? Not looking like there is a spot with him in CIN with the new acquisitions and Senzel shifting from INF to CF.

 

Why? Even if Senzel plays CF from day 1, it’s still fairly likely that at least v RHP we see Winker — Senzel — Puig, and I don’t think that’s unlikely as an everyday OF, at least at some point 

 

Theres just no reason to not play him v RHP.

Edited by taobball
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27 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Does he play? Not looking like there is a spot with him in CIN with the new acquisitions and Senzel shifting from INF to CF.

 

Remains to be seen whether Senzel can play CF. Scooter is a FA next year so they might scrap CF and start working him in at 2B a bit as well. 

 

Kemp is an annoying problem but if Senzel doesn't play CF, the solution is clear (hopefully the Reds would agree): 

 

vs. RHP - Winker LF, Schebler CF, Puig RF

vs. LHP - Kemp LF, Puig CF, Winker RF

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The likelihood of kemp, puig, and schebler making it through April healthy is pretty low 

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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

The likelihood of kemp, puig, and schebler making it through April healthy is pretty low 

 

Hope Puig keeps those hammies warm when playing in 30 degree weather this spring. 

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I normally steer clear of guys in their first season back after a significant shoulder surgery like the one he had, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him in spring training to see how he looks. I’d normally prefer the guy with a full offseason of weight training and unrestricted bp than the guy forced to train with rubber bands and ice packs. But I do see the appeal with Winker at his current ADP.

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As I said in the sleeper thread his combination of high BA, high BB, and low K is truly rare and special.  He is primed for a breakout so try to get a read on his health in spring training.  I comped him to vintage Michael Brantley but without the steals.

Edited by Weekday Warrior
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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

I normally steer clear of guys in their first season back after a significant shoulder surgery like the one he had, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him in spring training to see how he looks. I’d normally prefer the guy with a full offseason of weight training and unrestricted bp than the guy forced to train with rubber bands and ice packs. But I do see the appeal with Winker at his current ADP.

I heard he had shoulder discomfort for like 4 years and then finally got the surgery.   Could be a massive leap forward in terms of power.  

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7 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I heard he had shoulder discomfort for like 4 years and then finally got the surgery.   Could be a massive leap forward in terms of power.  

It generally takes a little longer for the power to return after shoulder surgery. While most players are hitting the gym aggressively right now to build strength, he’s probably working under restrictions and not maxing out yet. Michael Conforto from last year is a good example. He was fully healthy to start the year, but it took a couple months for the power to really show up.

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1 hour ago, Weekday Warrior said:

As I said in the sleeper thread his combination of high BA, high BB, and low K is truly rare and special.  He is primed for a breakout so try to get a read on his health in spring training.  I comped him to vintage Michael Brantley but without the steals.

 

Brantley can hit lefties

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.400+ OBP last year....Playing in one of the most stacked lineups in the game....in one of the best power hitting smallparks in the game.....why is nobody talking about this guy?

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19 minutes ago, Kirito-Sama said:

.400+ OBP last year....Playing in one of the most stacked lineups in the game....in one of the best power hitting smallparks in the game.....why is nobody talking about this guy?

Everyone is talking about him. He’s a wide awake sleeper.

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17 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Everyone is talking about him. He’s a wide awake sleeper.

 

In this thread maybe, but not in general. 

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Stud hitter, but for fantasy purpose lacks the HR/SB upside. Also doesn't have counting stats to help. Maybe this year counting stats could be better. Plus injury prone at such a young age. Has already had a wrist and shoulder injury (to be fair, wrist injury was a freak injury off the field). He's a great hitter with great discipline though. Wouldn't be surprised if he broke out in a big way.

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Yup -- was always on my watch list -- I worry about the stats as jspeco stated... for him to be a worth while candidate in standard 12 team redraft leagues he will need to up his HR/SB... but otherwise he's a great hitter. 

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Reds manager David Bell says Winker will get 500 AB

Quote

WINKER WON’T SIT: Winker showed last season that he’s a professional hitter (.299/.405/.431 in 281 at-bats). The plan is to get him 500 at-bats if he’s healthy

“Not so much does he need it ...,” Bell said. “He does need to continue to develop, but we want him to contribute at that level and as an everyday player. Again, it’s challenging having a lot of guys that can contribute, but I’m confident that it will work out. I really am. He’s going to be a big part of what we’re doing.

 

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Sportsfreak brought up a good point with his previous comment about his struggles vs lefties.

Granted SSS (57AB)  his hard-contact% plummeted, soft-contact% skyrocketed, GBs shot way up, K% went up 7.5% (although still good at 19.7)...still taking mad BBs though (16.9%) and had a .244 BABIP.

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2 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Sportsfreak brought up a good point with his previous comment about his struggles vs lefties.

Granted SSS (57AB)  his hard-contact% plummeted, soft-contact% skyrocketed, GBs shot way up, K% went up 7.5% (although still good at 19.7)...still taking mad BBs though (16.9%) and had a .244 BABIP.

 

Like you said, it's small sample and his numbers weren't horrible but with Kemp, Ervin and Puig the Reds could go with all RHH against lefty starters pretty consistently. 

 

I think Winker has enough of an eye to be at least average against lefties but with the Reds having options I wonder if they'll let him have the ABs to prove it or if they'll play it safe and platoon him.

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On 2/6/2019 at 9:44 AM, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Brantley can hit lefties

Brantley's first four years against LHP:

 

Season    PA    AVG    OBP    OPS    wRC+
2009        31     .462   .533    1.072    195
2010        70     .172   .217      .467    26
2011       158    .214   .282      .525    51
2012       202    .265   .327      .680    89

 

Let's give Winker a little time.

 

Edited by Wubbie075

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On 2/24/2019 at 2:36 PM, Wubbie075 said:

Brantley's first four years against LHP:

 

Season    PA    AVG    OBP    OPS    wRC+
2009        31     .462   .533    1.072    195
2010        70     .172   .217      .467    26
2011       158    .214   .282      .525    51
2012       202    .265   .327      .680    89

 

Let's give Winker a little time.

 

 

I didn't mean to say that Winker won't hit lefties, just that he hasn't shown the ability yet and with the Reds having the option to go all RHH OF with Puig, Kemp, Ervin he may not be given much of an opportunity to fight through growing pains.

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