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Flyman75

Jesse Winker 2019 Outlook

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There was some discussion about Winker in the sleeper thread, and I thought he deserved his own thread :). 

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He's had a bum shoulder since 2014! Adjusted his swing to make it work so that he could get to the show. Prospect guys always wondered why his power suddenly disappeared in the minors and that is the answer. 

 

Guy could be a hitting savant for all we know. He was 6th in OBP last year. His xWOBA was 36th last year. Career OBP is .397 without being a "power threat". That tells you how good his eye is. Because pitchers were not nibbling on him. 

 

His June/July last year were outrageous before he decided to get the surgery. Who the hell goes on a 1.000 OPS tear with a bum shoulder? This guy is a wide awake sleeper. 

 

He could be the 70 hit tool, 60 game power type hitter he was always pegged to be. 

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Does he play? Not looking like there is a spot with him in CIN with the new acquisitions and Senzel shifting from INF to CF.

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He doesn't hit lefties as of yet. That's his only wart. Righties not gonna like facing the Reds. 

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22 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Does he play? Not looking like there is a spot with him in CIN with the new acquisitions and Senzel shifting from INF to CF.

 

Why? Even if Senzel plays CF from day 1, it’s still fairly likely that at least v RHP we see Winker — Senzel — Puig, and I don’t think that’s unlikely as an everyday OF, at least at some point 

 

Theres just no reason to not play him v RHP.

Edited by taobball

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27 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Does he play? Not looking like there is a spot with him in CIN with the new acquisitions and Senzel shifting from INF to CF.

 

Remains to be seen whether Senzel can play CF. Scooter is a FA next year so they might scrap CF and start working him in at 2B a bit as well. 

 

Kemp is an annoying problem but if Senzel doesn't play CF, the solution is clear (hopefully the Reds would agree): 

 

vs. RHP - Winker LF, Schebler CF, Puig RF

vs. LHP - Kemp LF, Puig CF, Winker RF

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The likelihood of kemp, puig, and schebler making it through April healthy is pretty low 

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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

The likelihood of kemp, puig, and schebler making it through April healthy is pretty low 

 

Hope Puig keeps those hammies warm when playing in 30 degree weather this spring. 

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I normally steer clear of guys in their first season back after a significant shoulder surgery like the one he had, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him in spring training to see how he looks. I’d normally prefer the guy with a full offseason of weight training and unrestricted bp than the guy forced to train with rubber bands and ice packs. But I do see the appeal with Winker at his current ADP.

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As I said in the sleeper thread his combination of high BA, high BB, and low K is truly rare and special.  He is primed for a breakout so try to get a read on his health in spring training.  I comped him to vintage Michael Brantley but without the steals.

Edited by Weekday Warrior

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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

I normally steer clear of guys in their first season back after a significant shoulder surgery like the one he had, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him in spring training to see how he looks. I’d normally prefer the guy with a full offseason of weight training and unrestricted bp than the guy forced to train with rubber bands and ice packs. But I do see the appeal with Winker at his current ADP.

I heard he had shoulder discomfort for like 4 years and then finally got the surgery.   Could be a massive leap forward in terms of power.  

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7 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I heard he had shoulder discomfort for like 4 years and then finally got the surgery.   Could be a massive leap forward in terms of power.  

It generally takes a little longer for the power to return after shoulder surgery. While most players are hitting the gym aggressively right now to build strength, he’s probably working under restrictions and not maxing out yet. Michael Conforto from last year is a good example. He was fully healthy to start the year, but it took a couple months for the power to really show up.

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1 hour ago, Weekday Warrior said:

As I said in the sleeper thread his combination of high BA, high BB, and low K is truly rare and special.  He is primed for a breakout so try to get a read on his health in spring training.  I comped him to vintage Michael Brantley but without the steals.

 

Brantley can hit lefties

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.400+ OBP last year....Playing in one of the most stacked lineups in the game....in one of the best power hitting smallparks in the game.....why is nobody talking about this guy?

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19 minutes ago, Kirito-Sama said:

.400+ OBP last year....Playing in one of the most stacked lineups in the game....in one of the best power hitting smallparks in the game.....why is nobody talking about this guy?

Everyone is talking about him. He’s a wide awake sleeper.

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17 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Everyone is talking about him. He’s a wide awake sleeper.

 

In this thread maybe, but not in general. 

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Stud hitter, but for fantasy purpose lacks the HR/SB upside. Also doesn't have counting stats to help. Maybe this year counting stats could be better. Plus injury prone at such a young age. Has already had a wrist and shoulder injury (to be fair, wrist injury was a freak injury off the field). He's a great hitter with great discipline though. Wouldn't be surprised if he broke out in a big way.

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Yup -- was always on my watch list -- I worry about the stats as jspeco stated... for him to be a worth while candidate in standard 12 team redraft leagues he will need to up his HR/SB... but otherwise he's a great hitter. 

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