Flyman75

Jesse Winker 2019 Outlook

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Power potential and good average. He's played with a bum shoulder for years and with his contact abilities there's understandable optimism it'll come around. 

 

But if you're not in an obp league his value takes a serious hit.

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49 minutes ago, Minnesota_Jack said:

He'll obviously start hitting and most likely have a decent average. I'm just wondering what people are realistically expecting for other stats considering.. 

Low power 

Doesn't run

Shoulder surgery 

Bad lineup 

Playing time issues 

What is this guy's upside besides on base percentage? 

 

I mean his upside is that if he can up his power output and be a 25 hr guy to go with his .300avg/400obp then he's a stud.  I love him, but am all in on him in dynasty leagues not redraft.  I see his ceiling being .300/.400 20 hrs 80/80 this year.  Thats a SOLID year, nothing crazy though and I'm talking absolute ceiling.

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9 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I’m not shaving until this guy gets a hit.

If you had started opening day that might have been an impressive Stache, but I think he'll get a hit sooner than later...not advocating to hold or drop, but he's had some bad luck and he's to talented to last much longer without a hit.  

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2 hours ago, Minnesota_Jack said:

He'll obviously start hitting and most likely have a decent average. I'm just wondering what people are realistically expecting for other stats considering.. 

Low power 

Doesn't run

Shoulder surgery 

Bad lineup 

Playing time issues 

What is this guy's upside besides on base percentage? 

I think their lineup is going to be really potent.  He will be on base with Votto, Puig, Suarez and Scooter (in a few months) hitting behind him.  His ability to get on base will be a big boost in the run category.  He’s got enough power to hit 20 to 25 home runs.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Minnesota_Jack said:

Low power 

Doesn't run

Shoulder surgery 

Bad lineup 

Playing time issues 

What is this guy's upside besides on base percentage? 

 

Do you know what “upside” means? It is the opposite of pessimistic opinions. 

I will give you he doesn’t run.

Edited by BleedRedsRed

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37 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I’m not shaving until this guy gets a hit.

 

Get the shaving cream out! 

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38 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I’m not shaving until this guy gets a hit.

Hmmmm is THAT all it take? .errr...I’m not shaving until I get a million dollars (peeks.)

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LMFAO - Reds PH artist known as "Farmer" for Winker who proceeds to get mowed down for final out of game runners 2nd/3rd.

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I'm sure Winker's confidence is sky high after that clever maneuver

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

LMFAO - Reds PH artist known as "Farmer" for Winker who proceeds to get mowed down for final out of game runners 2nd/3rd.

Hahaha...3 pitches.  Isn't winker supposed to be some mega .obp machine? And hes pinch for? Thats some prime cool hip new management right there.

Edited by Cesare13

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1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Do you know what “upside” means? It is the opposite of pessimistic opinions. 

I will give you he doesn’t run.

LOL. Easy grumpy. My whole question was what kind of upside are we talking about. And those "pessimistic opinions" are the ones people are mentioning so it begs the question given all that what are we hoping for. Just saying "upside" means nothing. 

After tonight I should add cool hip new manager to his obstacles. 

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Out of the lineup again. This is a joke. I feel like I could do a better job than some of these new managers.

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One part of me is saying "first week, don't do anything rash". 

The other part of me is saying "this dude sucks, drop and pick up someone better".

 

I'm conflicted.

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Outside of OBP leagues his appeal is limited even if he was playing every day IMO. Dropped him a few days ago

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I don’t fault anyone from moving on in shallow, 3-of leagues but if you play in deep, 5-of leagues with a decent bench I’d recommend being patient. I’ve mentioned it on these boards several times but players coming back from shoulder surgery take a while to round into form.  Stash him on your bench and be patient. Don’t expect anything out of him until May, otherwise you’ll be even more disappointed. No one should have expected him to come out of the gate mashing.

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I did a little more research after my previous post and I found this quote from orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, to be particularly relevant here:

“Trying to re-establish ones mechanics after surgery is a complex process,” says Dr. ElAttrache, speaking generally. “It’s extremely delicate. It involves rebuilding strength, and all that goes into the swing from the front shoulder. It takes perfect mechanics to regain bat speed and the swing path. Sometimes it takes a year, sometimes more.

“A player may think he is fully recovered, especially after all the work that rehab entails, but regaining the mechanics doesn’t come easily,” says the doctor. “Sometimes we can see a hitter opening up too quickly. He may step out with his front foot to catch up to pitches, and also so he doesn’t have to finish off his swing, which puts a great deal of pressure on the shoulder, especially the front of the lead shoulder.

“Sometimes those mechanics can be just a tick off, and they are hard to re-establish. I’m certain there are cases where the shoulder is never exactly the same as before an injury or the gradual wearing down process. It is mechanical. It can be mental. For the hitter, a shoulder injury isn’t really any different that a shoulder injury can be for a pitcher.”

That was from an article talking about Matt Kemps poor performance in the season following shoulder surgery. We also saw it last year with Conforto who hit 1 home run last March/April and Adrian Gonzalez several seasons ago.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/matt-kemps-surgically-repaired-shoulder-could-be-behind-his-slump/

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7 hours ago, meh2 said:

I did a little more research after my previous post and I found this quote from orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, to be particularly relevant here:

“Trying to re-establish ones mechanics after surgery is a complex process,” says Dr. ElAttrache, speaking generally. “It’s extremely delicate. It involves rebuilding strength, and all that goes into the swing from the front shoulder. It takes perfect mechanics to regain bat speed and the swing path. Sometimes it takes a year, sometimes more.

“A player may think he is fully recovered, especially after all the work that rehab entails, but regaining the mechanics doesn’t come easily,” says the doctor. “Sometimes we can see a hitter opening up too quickly. He may step out with his front foot to catch up to pitches, and also so he doesn’t have to finish off his swing, which puts a great deal of pressure on the shoulder, especially the front of the lead shoulder.

“Sometimes those mechanics can be just a tick off, and they are hard to re-establish. I’m certain there are cases where the shoulder is never exactly the same as before an injury or the gradual wearing down process. It is mechanical. It can be mental. For the hitter, a shoulder injury isn’t really any different that a shoulder injury can be for a pitcher.”

That was from an article talking about Matt Kemps poor performance in the season following shoulder surgery. We also saw it last year with Conforto who hit 1 home run last March/April and Adrian Gonzalez several seasons ago.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/matt-kemps-surgically-repaired-shoulder-could-be-behind-his-slump/

So what I get out of this is his true "return" is indefinite in time, and highly unlikely to be anytime within the next two weeks considering where we're at now. 

i.e. I think he's a safe drop in </= 12-teamers. Just keep an eye on him.

Bottom line is he'll be better sometime between now and the end of the season. Of course, he couldn't be worse in the SSS to date.

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ok guys home runs 2 days in a row are we seeing something? He was dropped in MANY leagues

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2 oppo tacos, definate products of GA. But it's a start!

He's not doing what he's known for yet though, BA and OBP.

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7 hours ago, swfcdan said:

2 oppo tacos, definate products of GA. But it's a start!

He's not doing what he's known for yet though, BA and OBP.

Showed some signs today 1-2, 2 R, 2 BB

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