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Sidearmer

Travis Shaw 2019 Outlook

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Shaw saw an increase in his walks, a decrease in his strikeouts, yet his average dropped 32 points (Due to a BABIP in 2018 of .242). This just doesn't seem right.

 

Two straight years of 30 HR, 70+ R, and 85+ RBI. He should be eligible at 1B / 2B / 3B in just about every league setting. He will remain in a stacked lineup in a good hitter's ballpark. He also throws in the occasional SB to boot.

 

In Yahoo, he was ranked the #34 overall player in 2017, while he slipped to #46 in 2018. Given that he only thing changing this year is that he is also eligible at 2B and 1B, how is his Yahoo Preseason rank at 112? On ESPN's top 300, he is ranked #88. A modest improvement, but still very low.

 

Is there something I am missing here? Maybe its just the fact that there are a lot of boring low average high power guys, but Shaw is different. He has potential to hit for a non-scary average. His .241 average from last year seems like a floor to me. .260-.270 makes more sense as a projection. He has multiple positions, which most of the power guys do not have. He's coming off two consecutive strong years, giving us a solid track record.

 

Is him being a terrible hitter against lefties the reason he is so underrated? If you are in a daily league and just play him against RHP and put in your worst bench hitter, you are still getting monster production overall. In 383 AB against RHP in 2018, Shaw produced a ridiculous .251 AVG / .357 OBP / 30 HR / 74 RBI. His 2017 season against RHP was similarly ridiculous over 398 AB:  .281 AVG / .361 OBP / 26 HR / 79 RBI.

 

Let's move him up the rankings.

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4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

He's coming off two consecutive strong years, giving us a solid track record.

 

In standard 5x5 he was something like 3B #17, 2B #12, and 1B #16 in 2018.  I'm not sure what your threshold for "strong" is, but that looks to me like a back-end starter or CI/MI kind of guy, which I really can't attach a label of "strong" to.

 

4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Is him being a terrible hitter against lefties the reason he is so underrated?

 

Depends highly on your format and how you play.  Most people want an everyday player in their starting 3B or 2B slot, not a guy they have to do matchup homework with.  Every day you have to sit him vs. LHP is a day you're not getting value out of him, and it reduces your flexibility by making you use a bench spot on a 3B instead of somewhere else.  With deeper benches this isn't as much of a factor, but I was very happy to move Shaw in the league where I had him last year because I got tired of having to sit him so much against southpaws.

 

The 2B eligibility does give him some significant appeal as a strong MI who can step in and start at multiple positions if a 1B/2B/3B starter goes down, but I really don't see him as a top 10 option at any of those positions.

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Yeah it's tough with him...he's really not a good hitter. Can't touch lefties and his babip will remain in that area because teams figured out he only can use half the field and thusly shift accordingly. He's a fine player, I don't mean to disparage him too much...he's got nice power and really took one for the team learning 2B on the fly last year. Still, he's not someone I'd look for outside of deep leagues.

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3 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Shaw saw an increase in his walks, a decrease in his strikeouts, yet his average dropped 32 points (Due to a BABIP in 2018 of .242). This just doesn't seem right.

 

Two straight years of 30 HR, 70+ R, and 85+ RBI. He should be eligible at 1B / 2B / 3B in just about every league setting. He will remain in a stacked lineup in a good hitter's ballpark. He also throws in the occasional SB to boot.

 

In Yahoo, he was ranked the #34 overall player in 2017, while he slipped to #46 in 2018. Given that he only thing changing this year is that he is also eligible at 2B and 1B, how is his Yahoo Preseason rank at 112? On ESPN's top 300, he is ranked #88. A modest improvement, but still very low.

 

Is there something I am missing here?

He hit .326 vs the Shift in 2017, then .234 this past year.  .234 vs the shift is closer to the mean than .326 for a dead pull lefty.

 

I'd venture teams fine tuned their shifts(and pitchers game plan) after his first 4 months in a new league. (He had a low BA the last 2 months in 2017 also)

 

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22 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

He hit .326 vs the Shift in 2017, then .234 this past year.  .234 vs the shift is closer to the mean than .326 for a dead pull lefty.

 

I'd venture teams fine tuned their shifts(and pitchers game plan) after his first 4 months in a new league. (He had a low BA the last 2 months in 2017 also)

 

 

So maybe the shift explains his BA, and maybe I'm a little optimistic thinking .240 is his floor. His increased walk rate and decreased strikeout rate shows an overall better approach but he still pulled a ton. Will be interesting to see if there is anything that comes out of Spring Training about him trying to spray to all fields.

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Moustakas resigned to play 3rd.

 

How much does this cut into Shaw at bats? Or is he pretty much 2nd base exclusive this year?

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1 hour ago, Bigfische said:

Moustakas resigned to play 3rd.

 

How much does this cut into Shaw at bats? Or is he pretty much 2nd base exclusive this year?

 

I'd anticipate he'll mainly play 2B, but I do think this does hurt his ABs though not drastically.

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On 2/8/2019 at 7:14 PM, Whitecloud0101 said:

Underrated. esp with multiple position eligibility

 

i agree with this

 

im a big shaw fan.  that lineup, that park, that multiple pos elg.  and hes still 28 so i think he can still have "that" year

 

 

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19 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

I'd anticipate he'll mainly play 2B, but I do think this does hurt his ABs though not drastically.

Since Keston Hirua was projected to come up within a month or two, Shaw could be greatly impacted.  Or they can hold their highly touted 2B mega-prospect down longer then they were intending now.

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I think the Hiura hype is a bit overzealous at this point.  His minor league SB rate is atrocious, he could learn to work a count, he doesn’t have enormous power.  I mean really at this point he’s an average (BA) upside prospect in fantasy.  Shaw and Moustakas aren’t remotely budging in place to have a guy with a 60% minor league SB rate with skeptical plate disclipline unseat them.  He’s never been above AA.  He could use a decent amount of AAA time to develop here.  I don’t see anything in profile that suggests rushing him up.

Edited by Cmilne23
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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

I think the Hiura hype is a bit overzealous at this point.  His minor league SB rate is atrocious, he could learn to work a count, he doesn’t have enormous power.  I mean really at this point he’s an average (BA) upside prospect in fantasy.  Shaw and Moustakas aren’t remotely budging in place to have a guy with a 60% minor league SB rate with skeptical plate disclipline unseat them.  He’s never been above AA.  He could use a decent amount of AAA time to develop here.  I don’t see anything in profile that suggests rushing him up.

 

Its still a risk when considering Shaw. He's a top 20 prospect across the board so people like him. If he shows up in AAA for the first 3 months he will surely be able to kick Shaw off 2B. This move definitely knocks Shaw down a few rounds for me because I won't be taking that risk with a player already not playing against any LHP that early.

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Can Hiura play SS?  Gotta figure if he can Arcia would be the one on the bench, at least against righties.

Edited by damana

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1 hour ago, damana said:

Can Hiura play SS?  Gotta figure if he can Arcia would be the one on the bench, at least against righties.

I would say no chance he can play short. He already had a fringe arm, and he hurt his elbow in 2017 so he couldn't even throw enough to play defense at all that year.

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I don't know if this has been covered. if Shaw is going to be starting at 2B how is he defensively? the Brewers have a good offense, they don't "need" Shaw's offense every day, and if Shaw is going to be limited or platooned then that is going to impact his value.

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29 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

I don't know if this has been covered. if Shaw is going to be starting at 2B how is he defensively? the Brewers have a good offense, they don't "need" Shaw's offense every day, and if Shaw is going to be limited or platooned then that is going to impact his value.

I have no evidence (metrics wise) that shows how he performed at 2B. I watch roughly 80% of brewers games and he was OK -via the flawed 'eye test' from my vantage.

They are kinda assembling the ol' beer league softball lineup--outside of CF/RF/SS...but it played fine last year, mostly because the Crew incorporate the shift with incredible success, almost no team saves more runs with their placement better then MIL. He's gonna sit versus most every LH and be subbed in late game situations for defense. CC loves him some Hernan too and uses him way too much. Hiura is a VERY good prospect, to the point if he's crushing AAA in the springs of Colorado -like he should- then I doubt Shaw stands in his way. Could very well be a trade down the line. Without injury or trade, I'd have a tough time projecting much more than 400-425 ABs.

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3 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I have no evidence (metrics wise) that shows how he performed at 2B. I watch roughly 80% of brewers games and he was OK -via the flawed 'eye test' from my vantage.

They are kinda assembling the ol' beer league softball lineup--outside of CF/RF/SS...but it played fine last year, mostly because the Crew incorporate the shift with incredible success, almost no team saves more runs with their placement better then MIL. He's gonna sit versus most every LH and be subbed in late game situations for defense. CC loves him some Hernan too and uses him way too much. Hiura is a VERY good prospect, to the point if he's crushing AAA in the springs of Colorado -like he should- then I doubt Shaw stands in his way. Could very well be a trade down the line. Without injury or trade, I'd have a tough time projecting much more than 400-425 ABs.

 

I agree with this. I'm going from really liking Shaw to probably just targeting him in DFS against righties.

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I have no evidence (metrics wise) that shows how he performed at 2B. I watch roughly 80% of brewers games and he was OK -via the flawed 'eye test' from my vantage.

They are kinda assembling the ol' beer league softball lineup--outside of CF/RF/SS...but it played fine last year, mostly because the Crew incorporate the shift with incredible success, almost no team saves more runs with their placement better then MIL. He's gonna sit versus most every LH and be subbed in late game situations for defense. CC loves him some Hernan too and uses him way too much. Hiura is a VERY good prospect, to the point if he's crushing AAA in the springs of Colorado -like he should- then I doubt Shaw stands in his way. Could very well be a trade down the line. Without injury or trade, I'd have a tough time projecting much more than 400-425 ABs.

It’s not like this is John Jay standing in the way of Eloy Jimenez, Travis Shaw has averaged 32 HRs, 93 RBIs and an .840 OPS the last 2 years, not to mention a very good baserunner also.  I don’t care how good of a prospect Hiura he isn’t touching those numbers.  Only way Hiura is sniffing that job is if someone is hurt or traded, in which case both scenarios are fairly likely.  But Travis Shaw isn’t a bat you just bench to call up a prospect, he’s a very good major league player.

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Saw on twitter a verified account mention that they are going to try moose at 2B and leave shaw at 3B this spring, was on break so not scrolling back to find who tweeted it sorry

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What was said is:

Quote

Brewers manager Craig Counsell confirmed Monday that Mike Moustakas will get a look at second base in the spring.

Moustakas has reportedly agreed to return to the Brewers on a one-year, $10 million deal. He'll likely get most of his playing time at third base, but the club wants to test his versatility and spring training is a good time to do it. Moustakas has never played second base in pro ball, but it's possible he could play there if he's comfortable. This would mean that Travis Shaw would play third base. It's a situation to watch this spring.

Source: Tom Haudricourt on Twitter                          Feb 18, 2019, 2:08 PM

There was no indication in this statement that I can see that Shaw wouldn't continue to work at 2B as well or that Moose would be tried at 2B every single day.  Shaw would play 3B on days Moose is at 2B in full squad games yeah but they both would be probably at 2B during all those endless split squad games and at practices.  And Moose may not play 2B all the time either.  "Trying" doesn't mean every game.

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37 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

What was said is:

There was no indication in this statement that I can see that Shaw wouldn't continue to work at 2B as well or that Moose would be tried at 2B every single day.  Shaw would play 3B on days Moose is at 2B in full squad games yeah but they both would be probably at 2B during all those endless split squad games and at practices.  And Moose may not play 2B all the time either.  "Trying" doesn't mean every game.

 

This probably doesn't effect Shaw much for fantasy. If anything, could be a boon for Moustakas if he gains 2B eligibility.

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