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CrypTviLL

Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

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Going for under $20 in yahoo auction leagues.

 

Was HUGE in 2018 with 35 Home runs, 108 RBI, and a 275 batting average.

But is a complete question mark. What will we get out of him this year? 

 

Is there any reason why he won't get playing time?

 

If he adds on to his 2018 he could be an absolute steal this year in drafts. 

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34 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Going for under $20 in yahoo auction leagues.

 

Was HUGE in 2018 with 35 Home runs, 108 RBI, and a 275 batting average.

But is a complete question mark. What will we get out of him this year? 

 

Is there any reason why he won't get playing time?

 

If he adds on to his 2018 he could be an absolute steal this year in drafts. 

 

I think the presence of Eric Thames puts a minor damper in his value. Thames will get ABs, although maybe some of those will come at the cost of Ryan Braun in OF rather than Aguilar.

 

As for Aguilar's ability, he's done it two years in a row now, so it doesn't look like a fluke. I think this is a situation the ability will sort out the playing time and Aguilar will be fine.

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Damn man I don't want to believe due to late bloomers scaring me. Common sense says last year was his outlier season, but he had the Hard contact%, FB%, LD% to mostly back up his season. BABIP and HR/FB% were normal too.

 

I think he still gets 550-600 PAs

 

One concerning thing is that it's been 2 years in a row where his 2nd half was considerably worst than his first. Maybe a case of draft and and then trade in June?

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55 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Damn man I don't want to believe due to late bloomers scaring me. Common sense says last year was his outlier season, but he had the Hard contact%, FB%, LD% to mostly back up his season. BABIP and HR/FB% were normal too.

 

I think he still gets 550-600 PAs

 

One concerning thing is that it's been 2 years in a row where his 2nd half was considerably worst than his first. Maybe a case of draft and and then trade in June?

 

Was it an outlier though? He had a .265-16-52 line in 279 AB (a 550-AB pace of 31-102) after hitting 30 HR in AAA in 2016. I don't see it so much as an outlier as I do establishing himself. That said, I'm pegging him at 30-35 HR with 550 AB this season, hoping for a .260 BA and another 100+ RBI season. 

 

Also, I think it may have had more to do with being blocked at 1B in Cleveland rather than being a late bloomer. He put up some solid numbers from 2011-16 in the minors. I tend to think it was more opportunity...maybe, lol. 

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I think the presence of Eric Thames puts a minor damper in his value. Thames will get ABs, although maybe some of those will come at the cost of Ryan Braun in OF rather than Aguilar.

 

As for Aguilar's ability, he's done it two years in a row now, so it doesn't look like a fluke. I think this is a situation the ability will sort out the playing time and Aguilar will be fine.

 

Thames didn't threaten him last year once he completely seized the moment.  Also Thames fell off a lot as well.

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I have concerns about Jesus Aguilars performance v Non-Fastballs, and I’m worried his second half tail off may be more indicative of his future. 

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40 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Was it an outlier though? He had a .265-16-52 line in 279 AB (a 550-AB pace of 31-102) after hitting 30 HR in AAA in 2016. I don't see it so much as an outlier as I do establishing himself. That said, I'm pegging him at 30-35 HR with 550 AB this season, hoping for a .260 BA and another 100+ RBI season. 

 

Also, I think it may have had more to do with being blocked at 1B in Cleveland rather than being a late bloomer. He put up some solid numbers from 2011-16 in the minors. I tend to think it was more opportunity...maybe, lol. 

I agree. I used the word outlier incorrectly, I just think it was his peak season.

 

260 30 100 I could definitely see. Just shave about 10% off what he did this season.

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22 minutes ago, taobball said:

I have concerns about Jesus Aguilars performance v Non-Fastballs, and I’m worried his second half tail off may be more indicative of his future. 

 

He hit .246-16-54 in 272 ABs in the second half (July-Sept). I'd like a better BA, but overall, I'm good with that. Double that and you get .246-32-108 in 544 ABs. 

He hit .268-10-34 in 183 ABs in the Aug-Sept. Project that out to a full six-month season, and you get .268-30-102. I'm good with that, too. 

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1 minute ago, Ecofolux said:

I agree. I used the word outlier incorrectly, I just think it was his peak season.

 

260 30 100 I could definitely see. Just shave about 10% off what he did this season.

 

Yeah, it could very well be his peak, and I'd be good with that projection for this season (as a 23rd round keeper, lol). 

Edited by Flyman75
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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

He hit .246-16-54 in 272 ABs in the second half (July-Sept). I'd like a better BA, but overall, I'm good with that. Double that and you get .246-32-108 in 544 ABs. 

He hit .268-10-34 in 183 ABs in the Aug-Sept. Project that out to a full six-month season, and you get .268-30-102. I'm good with that, too.

I hear ya, it's just I play in a OPS league and his .760 OPS in the 2nd half was no good, also he had a 101 wRc+  :unsure:

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Yeah, it could very well be his peak, and I'd be good with that projection for this season (as a 23rd round keeper, lol).

Oh hell yeah dude, that's a complete steal

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Justin Smoak called and he wants this thread to know that he's available an astonishing 150 picks behind Aguilar.  Yes, that's one hundred and fifty picks later in NFBC ADP (Aguilar #80, Smoak #238) and for likely a very similar stat line.  Just sayin...

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59 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Justin Smoak called and he wants this thread to know that he's available an astonishing 150 picks behind Aguilar.  Yes, that's one hundred and fifty picks later in NFBC ADP (Aguilar #80, Smoak #238) and for likely a very similar stat line.  Just sayin...

 

Cringe 

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14 hours ago, chud12 said:

 

Cringe 

 

That's what I said, then I looked it over and all the projections are nearly identical.  Here's Steamer's, for example:

Aguilar: .242/.317 - 28 - 84 - 71

Smoak: .239/.336 - 26 - 80 - 76

 

You can look them all over but basically Aguilar gets a handful more HRs and RBIs while Smoak gets better OBP.  Is that worth 150 ADP difference?

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16 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

He hit .246-16-54 in 272 ABs in the second half (July-Sept). I'd like a better BA, but overall, I'm good with that. Double that and you get .246-32-108 in 544 ABs. 

He hit .268-10-34 in 183 ABs in the Aug-Sept. Project that out to a full six-month season, and you get .268-30-102. I'm good with that, too. 

 

I mean define good with that.  I didn't say he was undraftable or wouldn't hit 30 HRs. But if he returns at a .240+ BA he's not going to return on his ADP. I'm not arguing he's trash, I'm just saying there's other players I like more in his range. I think there's a chance his numbers represent closer to Yonder Alonso or, as En Votto Veritas said, Justin Smoak than we think. 

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36 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

That's what I said, then I looked it over and all the projections are nearly identical.  Here's Steamer's, for example:

Aguilar: .242/.317 - 28 - 84 - 71

Smoak: .239/.336 - 26 - 80 - 76

 

You can look them all over but basically Aguilar gets a handful more HRs and RBIs while Smoak gets better OBP.  Is that worth 150 ADP difference?

 

If you don’t agree with the projections it’s still cringe. In lu and park Aguilar plays half his games In I just think he can walk into 30/100/85 honestly. 

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14 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean define good with that.  I didn't say he was undraftable or wouldn't hit 30 HRs. But if he returns at a .240+ BA he's not going to return on his ADP. I'm not arguing he's trash, I'm just saying there's other players I like more in his range. I think there's a chance his numbers represent closer to Yonder Alonso or, as En Votto Veritas said, Justin Smoak than we think. 

 

I wasn't arguing...just offering my perspective. You said you were worried about his 2nd half being indicative of his future, and just looking at his numbers in July-Aug-Sept and Aug-Sept, I decided that I was good with what I saw. Good with that is defined as willing to accept it at the right price.

 

Personally, I don't believe he'll finish in the .240s range because I feel that he's a .260s hitter. 

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41 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

That's what I said, then I looked it over and all the projections are nearly identical.  Here's Steamer's, for example:

Aguilar: .242/.317 - 28 - 84 - 71

Smoak: .239/.336 - 26 - 80 - 76

 

You can look them all over but basically Aguilar gets a handful more HRs and RBIs while Smoak gets better OBP.  Is that worth 150 ADP difference?

 

I don't agree with Aguilar's projections there, especially the BA. He produced mostly decent-to-good BAs in the minors. He hit .265 in 2017. He hit .270 last year, and had one month in which he hit below .266 (a horrid .202 in July). I'm sure there are sabermetrics that explain the belief that he'll hit in the .240s, but for now I view him as at least a .260-30-100-80 guy with power and potential for more. 

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27 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't agree with Aguilar's projections there, especially the BA. He produced mostly decent-to-good BAs in the minors. He hit .265 in 2017. He hit .270 last year, and had one month in which he hit below .266 (a horrid .202 in July). I'm sure there are sabermetrics that explain the belief that he'll hit in the .240s, but for now I view him as at least a .260-30-100-80 guy with power and potential for more. 

 

He has a solid approach, he isn't swinging for the proverbial fences every time he's up there. He doesn't have elite bat speed which will have a drain but he's not a hacker either. His mean average is probably around .260 - .270, but that comes with risk he can have a slight down year and be .240, also could exceed and hit .285.

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6 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He has a solid approach, he isn't swinging for the proverbial fences every time he's up there. He doesn't have elite bat speed which will have a drain but he's not a hacker either. His mean average is probably around .260 - .270, but that comes with risk he can have a slight down year and be .240, also could exceed and hit .285.

Yeah, he's a pretty solid hitter. Knows how to take pitches and get himself into good counts. Also does not sell out for power, will use RF alley a bunch.

Thames just fell apart last year, can't imagine he takes much ABs away from Jesus.

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I do like JG but I have been burned by drafting players that have had bad second halves thinking it was an aberration.

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't agree with Aguilar's projections there, especially the BA. He produced mostly decent-to-good BAs in the minors. He hit .265 in 2017. He hit .270 last year, and had one month in which he hit below .266 (a horrid .202 in July). I'm sure there are sabermetrics that explain the belief that he'll hit in the .240s, but for now I view him as at least a .260-30-100-80 guy with power and potential for more. 

 

That's cool, but Smoak could very well put up that exact line (Smoak hit .270 in 2017).  And if he doesn't, let's say Smoak puts up the low projection of .245 - 25 - 80 - 80 and let's say that Aguilar hits your projection above, well you're paying 150 picks for .015 - 5 - 20.  :unsure:

 

Aguilar isn't Jose Abreu, but I feel like the hype wants to claim he's gonna put up Abreu numbers (.275, 30+, 100+).  I'm down to see some arguments that he is Abreu-like, but if he isn't then he's simply not worth the ADP because you can get nearly all his production 150 picks later with a guy like Smoak.

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2 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

That's cool, but Smoak could very well put up that exact line (Smoak hit .270 in 2017).  And if he doesn't, let's say Smoak puts up the low projection of .245 - 25 - 80 - 80 and let's say that Aguilar hits your projection above, well you're paying 150 picks for .015 - 5 - 20.  :unsure:

 

Aguilar isn't Jose Abreu, but I feel like the hype wants to claim he's gonna put up Abreu numbers (.275, 30+, 100+).  I'm down to see some arguments that he is Abreu-like, but if he isn't then he's simply not worth the ADP because you can get nearly all his production 150 picks later with a guy like Smoak.

 

That's cool, but Smoak has hit above .242 once in his 9yr MLB career and has a .233 career BA. I tend to believe Aguilar will actually produce a BA 25-30 points better because I think Smoak is more likely to land in the .230-.235 range...maybe .240. I also believe 30 HR is the floor (with health) for Aguilar. He hit 16 in 279 AB in 2017 and 35 in 492 last year, so I think 30 in 550 AB is a conservative projection. 

 

As for Abreu, I've never mentioned Aguilar and Abreu in the same sentence (until now), so I'm not real concerned about how Abreu-like he is. I'm not even all that concerned about how he compares to Smoak. I'm not going to own Smoak, period. I don't trust him to not be a BA drain on my roster. If he hits .270 with 38 HR again, then good for him and every owner that took a chance on drafting him. I'm concerned with Aguilar, and if he's someone I consider a value when at a certain point in the draft (unlikely since I own him in a keeper league and he'll probably be kept in my other league), then I'll draft him. If someone reaches for him at a point before I'd draft him, then okay. 

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32 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Any playing time concerns with Thames still around?

 

I don't think so, I think Aguilar has earned the everyday role and will only rest for Thames once in a while.

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