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CrypTviLL

Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

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I think Aguilar will easily outperform Smoak. Batting in the middle of the Brewers lineup is a much better situation, not to mention Miller Park. I'm keeping him for a 15th round pick, but there is a risk of him regressing, I honestly don't think I'd consider him before round 8 or so in a redraft.

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I think he has another 30 and 100 this year.  But I think he will wear down again down the stretch due to his lug of a body.

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15 hours ago, brooklynfinest42 said:

what round do you take him in? i seen him go in the range btw 5-10th round.. i think him dropping past 5th round is kind of a steal. any thoughts?

 

Dropping past the 5th a steal? I don't agree with that. I wouldn't spend a 5th rd pick on him, and I kept him in a league. The regression potential with him is very much there, creating too much risk to draft him in the 5th or earlier. His average ADP is 77th right now (12th 1B), which puts him in the 7th round of a 12-teamer. If you go by ADP, that makes the 5th a reach. 

Now personally, I believe Aguilar has a .260-30-100 season in him with potential for more. Those are solid numbers, but I don't see them as Rd 1-5 numbers. Just my opinion. 

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I think the potential is certainly there for a big season but I am a tad concerned that he'll be rested more than most 1B will be because of the presence of Thames and the Brewers depth as a whole.

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Aguilar got his opportunity last year because of an injury to Thames. He took advantage of that opportunity and had a break out season. Now Thames is healthy and is OPSing 1.032 this spring. Aguilar is hitting well also OPSing .929. I'd expect some kind of a platoon at 1B with Thames also getting some PT in the outfield. With Thames being the lefty, he may well get more of the platoon. Whoever performs the best will play the most, but I don't think Aguilar is necessarily a lock to be that person.

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Aguilar out of the lineup with Thames playing 1b, 3 games into the season. This is why I was worried about drafting Aguilar, really regretting it

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1 minute ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Aguilar out of the lineup with Thames playing 1b, 3 games into the season. This is why I was worried about drafting Aguilar, really regretting it

They're platooning him?  I got him really late in the league I have.  But I have Voit on that bench to replace him so not a big deal if I need to replace him. Very surprising he'd platoon though.

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3 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Aguilar out of the lineup with Thames playing 1b, 3 games into the season. This is why I was worried about drafting Aguilar, really regretting it

 

1 minute ago, MrBrown said:

They're platooning him?  I got him really late in the league I have.  But I have Voit on that bench to replace him so not a big deal if I need to replace him. Very surprising he'd platoon though.

 

I'm maybe the most negative on Aguilar. This isn't a platoon. This is the first week of the season. 

 

Aguilar still has quite a bit of leash, IMO. 

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4 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Aguilar out of the lineup with Thames playing 1b, 3 games into the season. This is why I was worried about drafting Aguilar, really regretting it

 

What round did you draft him in? I kept in as a 23rd keeper (30 rounds), and I won't regret it even if he platoons. But I also gave myself some options at 1B in case I needed to. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

I'm maybe the most negative on Aguilar. This isn't a platoon. This is the first week of the season. 

 

Aguilar still has quite a bit of leash, IMO. 

 

Agreed. Flaherty and Mikolas are both RHP, and he started against both. 

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Dude had 35 HR and 108 RBI last year in 492 AB. Is it surprising he's sitting already the third game into the season? Yeah. Managers do weird things though. I can't see him splitting time with Thames. 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

What round did you draft him in? I kept in as a 23rd keeper (30 rounds), and I won't regret it even if he platoons. But I also gave myself some options at 1B in case I needed to. 

 

I drafted him right around his adp, which was 77. If I thought he was going to play everyday I wouldn’t mind it, but I’m concerned he’ll sit for Thames one out of every 3 or 4 games 

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Don't forget that Thames has started each of the last two seasons like he was shot out of a cannon. This is likely just Counsell seeing if he can catch a little more early magic from Thames. Not likely to be a platoon, but if Thames catches fire, Aguilar will sit some until Thames cools down.

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9 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

What round did you draft him in? I kept in as a 23rd keeper (30 rounds), and I won't regret it even if he platoons. But I also gave myself some options at 1B in case I needed to. 

 

Well you ahve to understand you are teh exception and not the rule.

 

--

 

FWIW, I DO Believe this will be a platoon lol.  I just don't think it at all is yet 😘

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Thames 0-4, 4 Ks. Crackin’ start.

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42 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Thames 0-4, 4 Ks. Crackin’ start.

 

Thames was also called for a balk...

 

And no I am not kidding

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10 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

Is Aguilar a sell or a buy right now?

 

There's very little reason to have changed your opinion on Jesus Aguilar. 

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9 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

Is Aguilar a sell or a buy right now?

 

imo he's a hold, but you need to find another 1B. Once you find a 1B that can reasonably play the position and is given regular ABs (unlike Jesus) then you drop/trade Aguilar. I have my doubts anyone would trade for a 1-dimensional platoon bat at 1st but may as well try.

Obv MIL doesn't think much of him - maybe he gets traded.

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9 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

imo he's a hold, but you need to find another 1B. Once you find a 1B that can reasonably play the position and is given regular ABs (unlike Jesus) then you drop/trade Aguilar. I have my doubts anyone would trade for a 1-dimensional platoon bat at 1st but may as well try.

Obv MIL doesn't think much of him - maybe he gets traded.

 

There is literally no reason to see him as a one-dimensional platoon bat that did not exist when his ADP was 77. 

 

Like don't get me wrong, I was out on Aguilar before it was trendy, but he got sat once in the first three games of the season and you're acting like everything has changed. 

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11 minutes ago, taobball said:

he got sat once in the first three games of the season

Yes - yes he did. I don't think I have anything else to say. He was way overdrafted (including by me) because his own team does not see him as an every day starter.

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8 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Aguilar out of the lineup with Thames playing 1b, 3 games into the season. This is why I was worried about drafting Aguilar, really regretting it

Again managers like to get every single member of their 25 man roster into a game early in the season.  Talk about the poster child post for over reaction.  Geez.

2 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

Is Aguilar a sell or a buy right now?

No one is selling him unless he is crazy and he can't be bought because no one is selling him.

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Can’t say I’m crazy about him sitting already but Thames is no world beater. I got him in the 7th round so as long as he at least gets me something like 25 bombs and 85 rbis I’ll be happy. 1B is a kind of shallow this year for the first time in forever. I liked him as one of the last few guys with upside and a big power profile at the position who you could still wait on in drafts.

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