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Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

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Not in the lineup tonight. 😩

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Just now, fletch44 said:

Not in the lineup tonight. 😩

 

Looks like the Brewers are resting several regulars with a full slate ahead this week. Aguilar's starting to come out of it.

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Dudes a huge bust, Is this going to be another example of eating himself out of a job?

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Walk rate is up and strikeouts are down quite a bit. Contact is up as well.

His hard hit % is down while soft hit % is up, though. 

I think he could be a guy you could legit buy low on right now. 

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22 hours ago, Bit711 said:

Walk rate is up and strikeouts are down quite a bit. Contact is up as well.

His hard hit % is down while soft hit % is up, though. 

I think he could be a guy you could legit buy low on right now. 

You could buy low from me. His mediocre second half combined with this start has me itchy.

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I think it's possible his breasts are interfering with his swing.

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14 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I think it's possible his breasts are interfering with his swing.

Do you feel like a manzier might help??

I was at the game yesterday, he made some loud contact but also had some awful looking swings, like really bad. They resulted in soft pop-ups.

He's gonna need to figure it out ASAP though, this team has plenty of other paths to give good players his ABs.

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18 hours ago, fletch44 said:

You could buy low from me. His mediocre second half combined with this start has me itchy.

 

This is a good lesson.  Owners will give credence to second half breakouts but rarely to second half swoons.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, B&F said:

 

This is a good lesson.  Owners will give credence to second half breakouts but rarely to second half swoons.

 

This is the complete wrong lesson. Players need to be evaluated individually. If your reaction to this is to remove every second half swoon from your draft board, you're making a grave error.

 

I'm not going to say what "the lesson" is either, b/c Aguilar is still on the roster (i.e. not Pivetta) and it's April 18th. And that statement could be an error for me. 

Edited by taobball
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1 hour ago, B&F said:

 

This is a good lesson.  Owners will give credence to second half breakouts but rarely to second half swoons.

But he didn't have a 2nd half swoon, he had 1 bad month, July... that's it, he performed well in August and September. 

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24 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

But he didn't have a 2nd half swoon, he had 1 bad month, July... that's it, he performed well in August and September. 

His 2nd half slash line was .245 - .324 - .436. Sept/Oct was .266-.324-.447 so I wouldn't say he performed well then either.  That's Kendrys Moralesesque.

Now if this were Freeman or Arenado who put up that 2nd half and came out of the gate limping I wouldn't be worried in the least but JA doesn't exactly have a large body of work to make me feel so secure. 

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Anyone else on the verge of cutting him? I might be forced to drop if he doesn't show me something or ends up sitting out again tonight. 

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55 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

But he didn't have a 2nd half swoon, he had 1 bad month, July... that's it, he performed well in August and September. 

 

13 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

His 2nd half slash line was .245 - .324 - .436. Sept/Oct was .266-.324-.447 so I wouldn't say he performed well then either.  That's Kendrys Moralesesque.

Now if this were Freeman or Arenado who put up that 2nd half and came out of the gate limping I wouldn't be worried in the least but JA doesn't exactly have a large body of work to make me feel so secure. 

 

This. September was far better than July on many surface stats but he still was a .770 OPS. That's not great for 1B. As a whole, he struggled late last year. 

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11 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

His 2nd half slash line was .245 - .324 - .436. Sept/Oct was .266-.324-.447 so I wouldn't say he performed well then either.  That's Kendrys Moralesesque.

Now if this were Freeman or Arenado who put up that 2nd half and came out of the gate limping I wouldn't be worried in the least but JA doesn't exactly have a large body of work to make me feel so secure. 

 

You're leaving out info. Yes, his overall 2nd half line looked rough, but it was because of a .202 BA in July. Period. He still hit 16 HR and drove in 54 RBI in July-Aug-Sept/Oct, and he had 10 HR and 34 RBI in Aug-Sept/Oct (with a .268 BA). That Aug-Sept still projects to .268-30-102, which is what most people reasonably hoped for. 

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I'd just bench for now. The ABs I've seen from him haven't looked bad and he doesn't look like a player that's flailing. Still walking and hitting the ball hard. I don't think any of us think he's this bad. If it keeps up for another week or two I could see bailing in 10-teamers, but right now he seems like a guy that will wind up doing something on an opponent's team the minute he's claimed.

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I'm holding as well considering he's able to take a walk. It still is early. Last year I cut Matt Carpenter after he started out horribly and then look what he did. He just needs a good game or two to get back into it. 

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

You're leaving out info. Yes, his overall 2nd half line looked rough, but it was because of a .202 BA in July. Period. He still hit 16 HR and drove in 54 RBI in July-Aug-Sept/Oct, and he had 10 HR and 34 RBI in Aug-Sept/Oct (with a .268 BA). That Aug-Sept still projects to .268-30-102, which is what most people reasonably hoped for. 

 

That's not really true. We're just looking at different selections differently. I think it's just as unfair to take his Aug-Sept alone and project out. He had a .770 OPS in July and September. That's not likely to get it done agaist the bats behind him. 

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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

That's not really true. We're just looking at different selections differently. I think it's just as unfair to take his Aug-Sept alone and project out. He had a .770 OPS in July and September. That's not likely to get it done agaist the bats behind him. 

 

What's not true?

So its' unfair to take out his Aug-Sept and project it out, but it's fair to point to a .245 second half BA without acknowledging that it was in large part to his July BA? Lol okay. And I didn't just project out his Aug-Sep. I also mentioned that he went 16-54 in the second half that every one is gnashing their teeth over. That projects to 32-108. 

And certainly, an OPS in the .770s is not good for a slugging 1B. I would never suggest it is, but the discussion is that we should have known this 2019 start was coming because of a second half swoon, and I disagree. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

 

What's not true?

So its' unfair to take out his Aug-Sept and project it out, but it's fair to point to a .245 second half BA without acknowledging that it was in large part to his July BA? Lol okay. And I didn't just project out his Aug-Sep. I also mentioned that he went 16-54 in the second half that every one is gnashing their teeth over. That projects to 32-108. 

And certainly, an OPS in the .770s is not good for a slugging 1B. I would never suggest it is, but the discussion is that we should have known this 2019 start was coming because of a second half swoon, and I disagree. 

 

I think I said "just as." As in I find them equal arguments. It all depends on what you choose to believe in. That's my point. 

 

FWIW, none of these surface numbers mean anything to me. He's a fastball masher who sucks on off-speed and breaking and that's why I've been down on him since June 2018 🤷‍♂️

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I think I said "just as." As in I find them equal arguments. It all depends on what you choose to believe in. That's my point. 

 

FWIW, none of these surface numbers mean anything to me. He's a fastball masher who sucks on off-speed and breaking and that's why I've been down on him since June 2018 🤷‍♂️

 

Well the surface numbers are what count in my leagues, so they mean something to me and the vast majority of his owners. I believe there's a place for saber, and I check the "inside" numbers out, too. I completely get that they can signal what is to come. And frankly, if I hadn't kept Aguilar as a 23rd round keeper (30 rds), I wouldn't have drafted him because I thought his ADP was too high for a guy I thought would end up .260-30-100 (which looks to have been shooting for the moon at this point). But when it comes down to it, it's those surface numbers that are totaled up.

Edited by Flyman75
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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Well the surface numbers are what count in my leagues, so they mean something to me and the vast majority of his owners.

 

Sure. But surface numbers are entirely past. The point of literally everything that an analyst does is the future. I'm not making the argument that Aguilar was bad last year and never have. I made the argument that he was overpriced and overrated coming into this year and that pitchers have been adjusting to him more and more. Maybe that's wrong. Maybe that's right. But that's what I believe. 

 

Also "saber" is such a crude bulking of concepts. You can call it whatever you want. I don't think of myself as a "Saber" guy or a "math" guy. But between watching baseball and writing numbers, the latter is much more easy to communicate concepts with than "I've watched him and think he's got some flaws." I don't really think Saber covers pitch-specific, but I've never really cared about what Saber is either. 

 

IN 2018 (BA)

.371 v. 4SFB

.288 v. Sinker

.163 v. Change

.188 v. Slider

.214 v. Curve

 

I'm out, make of it what you will. 

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