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CrypTviLL

Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

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I can't see how you could hang on to him over guys you could replace him with like Dozier, Walker, J Bell, or heck even Smoak at this point. I cut him last week, I felt if I wated any longer, there wouldn't be any alternatives left on the WW.

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33 minutes ago, Resident A-hole said:

I can't see how you could hang on to him over guys you could replace him with like Dozier, Walker, J Bell, or heck even Smoak at this point. I cut him last week, I felt if I wated any longer, there wouldn't be any alternatives left on the WW.

 

Replace him with those guys? Not in a deeper league. Threee of those guys were drafted in both of my leagues, and Dozier didn’t last long on the wire. For me, there was no replacing him with Dozier, Walker, Bell, or Smoak. 

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Riding the pine again tonight. Looks extremely bleak.

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53 minutes ago, Resident A-hole said:

I can't see how you could hang on to him over guys you could replace him with like Dozier, Walker, J Bell, or heck even Smoak at this point. I cut him last week, I felt if I wated any longer, there wouldn't be any alternatives left on the WW.

You can replace him with Chris Davis still, he only has a .004 lower average and has more home runs

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And now they got Grandal playing 1st

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15 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

You can replace him with Chris Davis still, he only has a .004 lower average and has more home runs

 

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Posted (edited)

Why are they giving up in him?

His K rate is down from both 2017 & 2018. His walk rate is also up from both years. It’s early and this guy was a 3.1 war player last year.

 

Edited by BustHerPosey

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21 minutes ago, BustHerPosey said:

Why are they giving up in him?

His K rate is down from both 2017 & 2018. His walk rate is also up from both years. It’s early and this guy was a 3.1 war player last year.

 

They're most likely giving him time off to get his head straight. He'll get his shot again. If he continues to struggle after that, then it'll prob be time to move on. 

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1 hour ago, BustHerPosey said:

Why are they giving up in him?

His K rate is down from both 2017 & 2018. His walk rate is also up from both years. It’s early and this guy was a 3.1 war player last year.

 

 

Also: Exit velo almost the same as last year, line drive % looks good, .180 babip. This is a buy-low opp on steroids as long as he gets regular playing time. Jesus will be back before you know it, and it will be glorious. 

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Posted (edited)

This is a special feat right here.  In 21 games he’s amassed a near -1 WAR (-0.9), that’s insanely hard to be this horrible at baseball.  To achieve such a number you literally have to be stuffing your face full of cheetos and soda in the field while your pitchers are chucking and not move an inch.  Which isn’t insanely out of the question to think is possible given this horrific body this guy has.  I can’t say I’ve watched him at all this year.  And for that judging by metrics I’m glad.  Good god.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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11 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

Also: Exit velo almost the same as last year, line drive % looks good, .180 babip. This is a buy-low opp on steroids as long as he gets regular playing time. Jesus will be back before you know it, and it will be glorious. 

His barrel rate down by 5% launch angle by 3° xWOBA from .360 to .288 wCheetos+ up by 7.3 mg

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2 hours ago, BustHerPosey said:

Why are they giving up in him?

His K rate is down from both 2017 & 2018. His walk rate is also up from both years. It’s early and this guy was a 3.1 war player last year.

 

 

30 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

Also: Exit velo almost the same as last year, line drive % looks good, .180 babip. This is a buy-low opp on steroids as long as he gets regular playing time. Jesus will be back before you know it, and it will be glorious. 

 

14 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

His barrel rate down by 5% launch angle by 3° xWOBA from .360 to .288 wCheetos+ up by 7.3 mg

 

 

Adding to this, xStats/Statcast does say that Aguilar has been unlucky (-.085 BA Diff / -.176 SLG Diff) but those numbers are still incredibly lackluster for a 1B. xStats has him as an Expected BA of .219 and an Expected SLG% of .340. That's bad. 

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Lol no Jesus again. 

 

Jesus that’s bad news. Fire up your Bicep Boy shares for sure now. 

 

Toast. 

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I have to think the Brewers are trying to reset him with a few days off and some cage work. I still doubt his leash is this short, but backup plans have been had for a few weeks now.

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15 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

I have to think the Brewers are trying to reset him with a few days off and some cage work. I still doubt his leash is this short, but backup plans have been had for a few weeks now.

 

The problem with the leash length is... what is he to them in terms of a 25-Man contribution? No doubt, if he starts hiting at last years pace it all goes to the wayside. But if he's not SIGNIFICANTLY better than Thames v. RHP... I mean this Brewers team has too many INF as is. Too man 1B-types too. Smoeone's going to need to get put on the team's s--- list. A bad defensive, Right-handed first baseman needs to do a hell of a lot to keep his spot on a 25-Man roster being relevant. This is the same team who discarded Thames and Santana after good years in consecutive seasons. Aguilar could simply be three in a row. 

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It's funny to read all the advanced stats in this thread as someone who has watched 75% of brewers games knowing Jesus has looked hopelessly lost all year and was at the end of last year too

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

The problem with the leash length is... what is he to them in terms of a 25-Man contribution? No doubt, if he starts hiting at last years pace it all goes to the wayside. But if he's not SIGNIFICANTLY better than Thames v. RHP... I mean this Brewers team has too many INF as is. Too man 1B-types too. Smoeone's going to need to get put on the team's s--- list. A bad defensive, Right-handed first baseman needs to do a hell of a lot to keep his spot on a 25-Man roster being relevant. This is the same team who discarded Thames and Santana after good years in consecutive seasons. Aguilar could simply be three in a row. 

 

Very fair points. Obviously I'm hoping he can get back on track, but I'm not blind to how the Brewers have handled previously successful players. The team is deep and has plenty of other options, as evidenced by their willingness to play Grandal at 1B the other night.

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18 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

 

Very fair points. Obviously I'm hoping he can get back on track, but I'm not blind to how the Brewers have handled previously successful players. The team is deep and has plenty of other options, as evidenced by their willingness to play Grandal at 1B the other night.

 

Aguilar could turn it around. I also think he's closer to getting Pivetta'd than people think. 

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38 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Aguilar could turn it around. I also think he's closer to getting Pivetta'd than people think. 

 

Yep. They have multiple options they could go with this struggle. One is a platoon with Thames, they also have Shaw who can play 1B and Moose who can slide to 3B in that instance. Hiura is really hitting the ball well too down in AAA and while I dont think his promotion is imminent I could see them sliding Shaw to 1B eventually with Moose moving back to 3B and Hiura up and playing. 

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56 minutes ago, dzemens said:

 

Yep. They have multiple options they could go with this struggle. One is a platoon with Thames, they also have Shaw who can play 1B and Moose who can slide to 3B in that instance. Hiura is really hitting the ball well too down in AAA and while I dont think his promotion is imminent I could see them sliding Shaw to 1B eventually with Moose moving back to 3B and Hiura up and playing. 

Shaw was a natural 1B so what you say makes a lot of sense.  Might even help his hitting to get away from 3B.  I'd love to see Aguilar sent down because as soon as I drop him in my dynasty league someone rebuilding will swoop in and speculate and he will be lost forever to me then he will start hitting again.

But right now he is like in limboland as I wait and wait and see a valuable bench slot used up on a lump of clay as I miss out on some interesting fliers that might actually stick and take off instead.  Yoda to Milwaukee: Demote or demote not ... but tell us which way you are going later not but sooner, yes!

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Well, I've been an Aguilar supporter and defender...but I'm out. I hung onto hope as long as I could, but the time has come to just cut ties. If he gets picked up and succeeds on another team, then so be it. He just seems lost right now. I don't regret holding onto him as long as I did to see if he could wake up, but I also don't feel any regret in dropping him. Whatever's going on, I hope he gets things figured out. 

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