ktierne3

Nomar Mazara 2019 Outlook

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Posted this in the sleeper thread and then realized he didn't have a 2019 Outlook.

 

I'm pretty high on Mazara in 2019 given his ADP and will be targeting him in most of my drafts.

 

He has been super consistent, hitting 20 HR for each of the last three seasons, but was on pace to buck that trend until a thumb injury at the All Star break derailed his 2018 season.

 

He is still just twenty three years old, and so I think his floor is 20 HR but he has plenty of room for power upside given his young age. The biggest room for improvement could be his launch angle which was an average of just 8 degrees last year. I think if he can bring that up we could see a big power breakout.

 

Additionally the rangers have hired a new hitting coach Luis Ortiz specifically to "coax" more power out of him. Perhaps part of this might entail raising Mazara's launch angle.

 

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/02/07/rangers-spring-training-projectsthe-big-adjustment-nomar-mazara-must-make-season

 

Depth Charts likes him for 26/80/91/.271. which I think is reasonable, but I think he is capable of homers in the low thirties. Prior to the thumb injury last season he was on pace for 30 homers so I think that is a reasonable number to shoot for. If his hitting coach is successful with him then there could be room for more.

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The thing I don't like about Mazara's 2018 season is his 10 HR in May. Outside of that, he had 10 HR and 54 RBI in 378 AB (5 HR in April and June...197 AB). His peak will probably get him around 30 at some point, but I don't see it this year. I'm even a little concerned he might just hit 18-22. 

 

If he can recapture production similar to May, then look out. But I'm skeptical. Even before he was hurt, he was pretty "meh" apart from May. 

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3 hours ago, ktierne3 said:

Posted this in the sleeper thread and then realized he didn't have a 2019 Outlook.

 

I'm pretty high on Mazara in 2019 given his ADP and will be targeting him in most of my drafts.

 

He has been super consistent, hitting 20 HR for each of the last three seasons, but was on pace to buck that trend until a thumb injury at the All Star break derailed his 2018 season.

 

He is still just twenty three years old, and so I think his floor is 20 HR but he has plenty of room for power upside given his young age. The biggest room for improvement could be his launch angle which was an average of just 8 degrees last year. I think if he can bring that up we could see a big power breakout.

 

Additionally the rangers have hired a new hitting coach Luis Ortiz specifically to "coax" more power out of him. Perhaps part of this might entail raising Mazara's launch angle.

 

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/02/07/rangers-spring-training-projectsthe-big-adjustment-nomar-mazara-must-make-season

 

Depth Charts likes him for 26/80/91/.271. which I think is reasonable, but I think he is capable of homers in the low thirties. Prior to the thumb injury last season he was on pace for 30 homers so I think that is a reasonable number to shoot for. If his hitting coach is successful with him then there could be room for more.

 

i am also high on mazara hes still just 23 years old until the end of april.  i still think he can turn into a 30 homerun guy with upside. im loving where hes going thus far and wouldnt mind him as OF 3 or 4

 

 

1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

The thing I don't like about Mazara's 2018 season is his 10 HR in May. Outside of that, he had 10 HR and 54 RBI in 378 AB (5 HR in April and June...197 AB). His peak will probably get him around 30 at some point, but I don't see it this year. I'm even a little concerned he might just hit 18-22. 

 

If he can recapture production similar to May, then look out. But I'm skeptical. Even before he was hurt, he was pretty "meh" apart from May. 

 

ya but hes just 23.  what if he puts that may together for a full year?  im willing to take a risk its this year based on his ADP right now

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10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

The thing I don't like about Mazara's 2018 season is his 10 HR in May. Outside of that, he had 10 HR and 54 RBI in 378 AB (5 HR in April and June...197 AB). His peak will probably get him around 30 at some point, but I don't see it this year. I'm even a little concerned he might just hit 18-22. 

 

If he can recapture production similar to May, then look out. But I'm skeptical. Even before he was hurt, he was pretty "meh" apart from May. 

He had a sore wrist after June 10th and missed some time. He only hit 1 HR after that until he sprained his thumb in July.

 

I didn't think his April was bad and its coolest month of the year. I dunno what to make of him but for the price its worth a gamble

 

 

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Three straight 20 HR seasons looks like no progress to the naked eye, and most are going to write him off as "he is what he is".

 

He'll only be 24 in April, the breakout is coming. 

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His breakout seems to depend on him figuring out lefties.  He's never had an OBP higher than .286 against them.  

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if Mazara could improve more vs LHP then he could elevate as a player.

 

17 vs LHP- .228/.286/.317/.603 - 5.3 BB%, 22.6 K%   

18 vs LHP- .240/.273/.425/.697/  - 3.2 BB%, 27.3 K%   

 

there is also the issue of FB%.

he had 34 FB% and 32.6 hard hit% in 2017. then he had 26.6 FB% and 37.5 hard hit% in 2018.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nomar-mazara-608577

 

he needs better launch angle for more HR.

in 2017 he had 11.3 LA. in 2018 he had 5.3 LA.

 

https://www.rotoballer.com/using-sabermetrics-for-fantasy-baseball-part-3-statcast-for-batters/449540

Quote
Batted Ball Type Launch Angle
Ground ball Less than 10 degrees
Line drive 10-25 degrees
Fly ball 25-50 degrees
Pop-up More than 50 degrees

 

 

Edited by SpecialFNK
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9 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i am also high on mazara hes still just 23 years old until the end of april.  i still think he can turn into a 30 homerun guy with upside. im loving where hes going thus far and wouldnt mind him as OF 3 or 4

 

ya but hes just 23.  what if he puts that may together for a full year?  im willing to take a risk its this year based on his ADP right now

 

Yeah, he's definitely to young to give up, and I haven't. Just looking at last year, he was scorching for a few weeks and was "meh" the rest of the way. But I've always believed the talent is there. I'd happily take a shot on him if the price is right. 

 

38 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

He had a sore wrist after June 10th and missed some time. He only hit 1 HR after that until he sprained his thumb in July.

 

I didn't think his April was bad and its coolest month of the year. I dunno what to make of him but for the price its worth a gamble

 

 

 

The encouraging thing about his April and June is that despite the lack of HR (5 in those two months), he still had a good BA and 34 RBI. 

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Mazara has been a player I've basically decided I'm keeping until my grave in dynasty. One thing I've noticed with prospects is that they can get judged unfairly depending on their first few seasons, especially when they're up early. Two examples of this I've noticed off the top of my head are Mazara and Xander Bogaerts. Both of their early season careers have been similar in my mind. Bogaerts came up early, debuting at 20 and playing full seasons at 21, 22, 23, and 24. In 2016, at 23 years old, Xander hit 21 homers. The rest of the years, he hit 12, 7, and 10. 

 

Now, obviously Mazara and Bogaerts are different players, Bogaerts the better pure hitter. But the point is that going into last year, it seemed like the book had been written on Xander that he was a good hitter, maybe 15 homer power. That provided a really nice value on Xander going into drafts last season, and if you got in on him, you made a really nice profit. I see that happening with Mazara now.

 

There are no doubt adjustments that need to be made with Mazara. Launch angle has already been brought up in this thread and he still doesn't hit lefties well. But let's not forget that he's still only entering his fourth season... and he's only just going to be turning 24 this season. Also referenced in this thread, Texas brought in a new hitting coach with a stress on working with Nomar. The jury is still out on what Mazara's ceiling is. With health assumed, I can see this season going one of two ways this year: 

1. He continues his steady improvement, slightly building on his numbers. Finishes this season around .260/80/25/100. Breakout comes later.
2. The breakout comes this year, he mashes to the tune of a .280/95/32/115 line. This conversation is very different next season. 

 

 

The nightmare scenario is that there is no breakout, he stays a consistent .250-.260/20-25 guy capable of 100 RBIs for the rest of his career. That still has value, and you're not losing your league with Mazara on your team. With that said, I think that is far less likely than either of the two scenarios I laid out, and given his ADP/ranks, there's no way I'm not taking that chance this season. His ADP on ESPN, CBS, and NFBC are 153, 137, and 154, around the likes of Stephen Piscotty, Moose, and Ian Desmond. To me, there's no reason to NOT buy Mazara going into this season. 

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I really think it's as simple as lifting the ball for Mazara. He needs to increase his launch angle desperately like SpecialFNK has pointed out for years. I'd look for more signs of him adjusting his swing in spring. He's someone I have my eye on for sure

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Always has the potential to be an early-round fantasy stud. 

I own him in one of my keepers and are targeting for him 2 other keepers.

 

Although many say he is not developing, putting up 3 consecutive 20HR seasons even before hitting 25 years of age is not a think that a 'talentless' player can do.

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