Sidearmer

Jonathan Villar 2019 Outlook

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Villar will be a hotly debated player in the next several weeks. He put up a very strong season last year in limited ABs. Looking at the Orioles potential lineup and depth chart, I'd think Villar will be a lock to be an every day player and bat at the top of the lineup every day. The lineup may be putrid, but batting 1-2 on an AL East team has plenty of value no matter what the talent level is.


Villar will be eligible at SS and 2B in virtually all settings. He's currently ranked 81 on Yahoo, good for the 7th round in standard leagues. This seems like a great value, especially this year where speed is extremely scarce. If I had to guess who would lead the MLB in SB I'd probably have to go with Villar. The lock for playing time can't be understated, he has a legit shot to play 155+ games and get 700 PA, all of those at the top of the lineup. If he does, that, you can book him for 45-60 SB pretty easily. Being in a terrible lineup could help him with SB, there's no one he can't run in front of. He's also good for double digit HR, especially in the AL East. Just based on the volume of PAs he should accumulate enough R and RBI to be an elite player. 

 

There's definitely a lot of risk here (See 2017), but a player like Adalberto Mondesi is going a full round above him, and he's never actually done it in a full season before. Villar has proved he can be good over a whole season. After Villar's monster 2016, he was going in the 3rd round. Because of the 2017 off year, he's discounted all the way to 7th. Even in the off year he went 11 HR / 23 SB in 400 AB (SB dropped due to drop in lineup hitting in front of pitcher). If he hits .240 with a .300 OBP he probably will still be left at or near the top of the order, there just isn't anyone else on that team that can replace him. He's also still relatively young (27 on Opening Day) so its not like the Orioles will favor playing youngsters over him late in the year.

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Honestly, 80's seems a bit high for me.  I nabbed him in my ESPN League (2B Only) at around 110 and I was pretty pleased with that.  I'm really high on him but 7th Round has a bunch of more safe bets.  With that said, I'm predicting .255, 18 HR, 40 SB ... Come to think of it that is a really good line, and realistic, I think.

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19 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

With that said, I'm predicting .255, 18 HR, 40 SB

Looks about right, I'd even say bump up the SBs. I'm still not buying though, someone will like him more than me. Can't stand players who only get 40 rbi on the season

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27 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Looks about right, I'd even say bump up the SBs. I'm still not buying though, someone will like him more than me. Can't stand players who only get 40 rbi on the season

 

If I take Arenado for example I think Villar compliments him well. 

Edited by Members_Only_76

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8 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

If I take Arenado for example I think Villar compliments him well.

I hear that. Villar is more valuable in 5x5 leagues. It's just I play 7x7 and Villar is not good in OBP or SLG

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Just now, Ecofolux said:

I hear that. Villar is more valuable in 5x5 leagues. It's just I play 7x7 and Villar is not good in OBP or SLG

 

Good point. 

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2 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

I hear that. Villar is more valuable in 5x5 leagues. It's just I play 7x7 and Villar is not good in OBP or SLG

If his OBP and SLG were good, he'd be a first round pick. Who else can you draft that late that will have a big impact on steals and not drag on OBP and SLG? 

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16 minutes ago, MayorMcCheese said:

If his OBP and SLG were good, he'd be a first round pick. Who else can you draft that late that will have a big impact on steals and not drag on OBP and SLG?

Hampson? I just don't like these types of players. I don't care about steals, but if you're in 5x5 I understand steals matter more.

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What do you guys think are the chances he gets 10 appearances at SS this season? He fell 2 appearances short of gaining SS eligibility in ESPN heading in to this season. Some guy named Richie Martin is currently slated to play SS, per Roster Resource.

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13 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Good point. 

I guess my question got deleted. not sure why but ill try to rephrase.. where does villar rank in terms of league settings... is head to head categories for villar without obp and slug the same value as 5x5? 

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[A couple of posts removed.  We really can't have this thread turning into a discussion of everyone's particular league format and how to value Villar in theirs.  In standard 5x5 roto, SBs are 20% of a player's value, so SB-heavy players are going to be valued more.  If you start adding other categories that aren't SB, those SBs are worth less, so SB-heavy players are generally less valuable.  If you want more detail beyond that, your question really needs to go in the Bench Coach forum.]

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picked right after Dee gordon in the ESPN roto mock

 

picked in the 80-90 overall range

 

seems like youll have to take him top 100 to get him with the 2B landscape this year

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Just hope he stays on Baltimore all season.  That’s the perfect environment for a guy like this.  In real life contenders will do what Milwaukee did and stuff his horrific K’s on the bench a lot.  He’s the type of guy who thrives off stuffing in garbage situations.  Which for fantasy is no problem at all.  If Baltimore starts shopping him during season I’d sell very fast.  

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He’s a better pick than Dee Gordon . Gordon will kill your OBP ,doesn’t add any power 

Villar will cost less and equal steals and quadruple hrs  . OBP not great but bareable ifvyou have a guy with high OBP 

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Just hope he stays on Baltimore all season.  That’s the perfect environment for a guy like this.  In real life contenders will do what Milwaukee did and stuff his horrific K’s on the bench a lot.  He’s the type of guy who thrives off stuffing in garbage situations.  Which for fantasy is no problem at all.  If Baltimore starts shopping him during season I’d sell very fast.  

 

Yes I agree with this, he's definitely a volume guy as I said in the OP. If he stays in Baltimore I'm expecting 600+ PA easily with potential for 700. I don't see a trade as very likely just because I don't see any teams that would line up for him. If teams do it'd probably be because he's lighting it up, and the team would want him in a starting role. Brewers were in a playoff race and dumped him.

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21 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Yes I agree with this, he's definitely a volume guy as I said in the OP. If he stays in Baltimore I'm expecting 600+ PA easily with potential for 700. I don't see a trade as very likely just because I don't see any teams that would line up for him. If teams do it'd probably be because he's lighting it up, and the team would want him in a starting role. Brewers were in a playoff race and dumped him.

It is so hard to predict trade value. If Villar is doing Villar things someone will trade for him because he can help a team. Also, the Brewers lineup was pretty dynamic and had some unique aspects to it. Cain and Yelich were monster OBP and speed guys at the top, but they also used Thames there and went very power heavy at the top. The Brewers just didn't place a high value on Villar's speed and low OBP. But, if he is at the top of the lineup for the O's creating runs and chaos then that might be valuable to a team in contention that needs that talent. 

On the O's I expect Villar to be very intriguing. If he gets on base I see him running constantly because they need him to create runs because their lineup isn't great. Also, they are rebuilding and have zero talent. Limiting Villar's running game is pointless for his trade value. They should give him the green light just to try and flip him for a prospect or two. I like Villar's upside this season. 

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52 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

It is so hard to predict trade value. If Villar is doing Villar things someone will trade for him because he can help a team. Also, the Brewers lineup was pretty dynamic and had some unique aspects to it. Cain and Yelich were monster OBP and speed guys at the top, but they also used Thames there and went very power heavy at the top. The Brewers just didn't place a high value on Villar's speed and low OBP. But, if he is at the top of the lineup for the O's creating runs and chaos then that might be valuable to a team in contention that needs that talent. 

On the O's I expect Villar to be very intriguing. If he gets on base I see him running constantly because they need him to create runs because their lineup isn't great. Also, they are rebuilding and have zero talent. Limiting Villar's running game is pointless for his trade value. They should give him the green light just to try and flip him for a prospect or two. I like Villar's upside this season. 

 

The point I was trying to get at is that if Villar does Villar things and plays very well, a team trading for him will probably use him as a starter. If he's ordinary, Orioles will more likely just keep him and hope to rehab his value next year.

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11 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

The point I was trying to get at is that if Villar does Villar things and plays very well, a team trading for him will probably use him as a starter. If he's ordinary, Orioles will more likely just keep him and hope to rehab his value next year.

I understand, but Villar is going on his age 28 season. He doesn't have too many "next years" left before his book gets written. My post was meant to say that even though the Brewers didn't value his skillset doesn't mean that is the case for other teams. The Brewers had the luxury of Yelich and Cain pushing Villar to the later parts of the lineup and into no man's land. Not many teams have that luxury. 

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1 minute ago, thezing1 said:

I understand, but Villar is going on his age 28 season. He doesn't have too many "next years" left before his book gets written. My post was meant to say that even though the Brewers didn't value his skillset doesn't mean that is the case for other teams. The Brewers had the luxury of Yelich and Cain pushing Villar to the later parts of the lineup and into no man's land. Not many teams have that luxury. 

 

Even if a trade happens its a pretty good chance he's going to get regular ABs on his new team. Brewers were rare in that they were loaded, but Villar would be a utility guy able to player most days on most teams, especially if playing well. A trade is just something too far down the line to even worry about for a position player. There's every chance he gets traded to a better offense in need of a leadoff hitter at MI, which would bump his value.

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He has another year of team control after this so they may view him as a cog they want to keep around for at least one more year.  I wouldn't assume a trade is guaranteed.

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14 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

He has another year of team control after this so they may view him as a cog they want to keep around for at least one more year.  I wouldn't assume a trade is guaranteed.

Orioles aren’t sniffing playoffs until 2025 at soonest.  He isn’t a cog.

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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Orioles aren’t sniffing playoffs until 2025 at soonest.  He isn’t a cog.

I agree that they're terrible but he's the best player they have on their team currently.  Even though you and I know they aren't competing until 2025 doesn't mean they might want to expedite things.  Who knows.

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He is and always will be super streaky. That is the only true risk here.

He was terrible the first 4 months of 2017. As of of August 9th. He had hit .213 with 8 HRs and 20 SBs for the year. He would get hot the last month and half..but most people had ditched him by then.

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5 hours ago, MJDrocks said:

I agree that they're terrible but he's the best player they have on their team currently.  Even though you and I know they aren't competing until 2025 doesn't mean they might want to expedite things.  Who knows.

 

I don’t think it’s at all likely the Orioles view Villar as anything other than a short-term stop-gap. Calling him the “best” even is a little rough around the edges. It certainly isn’t an open and shut case outside of fantasy value, which is irrelevant to a team-based discussion. And even if he is “the best,” that doesn’t mean he’s even good— it just might mean Elias views the next Orioles competitor as being comprised primarily of players not currently on the MLB roster

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