Flyman75

2019 Fantasy Strategy Thread

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4 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

This is being discussed a little in the closer thread right now and I thought it was better suited to bring it here to get some opinions. With the landscape of the the traditional closer drying up how are people approaching saves this year? I suspect the answers will differ but I would like to hear both H2H and Roto opinions, though I prefer to play H2H myself.  

That being said in more recent years I have waited out the first closer run and gone for 1 or, at most, 2 middle of the pack closers. Then I seek out elite K% MRs later in the draft and normally end up with about 3-4 MRs in addition to my 6-7 SPs (most of my bench is pitching in H2H). I like how the higher innings, elite K's and ratios of these guys combine for ace-like numbers and sometimes they earn the right to close, which is just a bonus. Then I'll use these forums to seek out WW saves throughout the season. 

As a result I usually have one of the better teams in terms of pitching ratios, k's and wins while also competing in saves each week. Not spending money on those closers in the first run or 2 also allows me to load up on bats while others seek the saves. The one issue I have found with this is that often times these middle tier closers are the target of trades and wind up setting up on contending teams, thus leaving me scrambling for much of the summer for saves just to stay afloat each week in that category.

After all this thought, I may take this strategy a step further and only seek MRs and then play the WW using these threads to find closers. MRs I really like this year based on their composite ADP are Seranthony, Andrew Miller, Stripling (who may start), Betances, Chad Green, Trevor May, and Brad Peacock to name a few.

What are your thoughts?

I usually take the wait on closers approach; however, with the trend towards closer committees, I feel like it's more important to draft 2 top 15 closers with secure jobs to ensure you are getting save opportunities. Similar to how speed guys are getting more valuable because of the decline of the SB.

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As a long time H2H standard player, how do you transition to Roto? 

In H2H I almost always went with elite hitters and basically forego-ed SP entirely... relying on bargain bin guys instead.

But in ROTO, this doesn't work out well. I need quality pitching. As someone who spends their wad in auctions on hitting, what would you suggest I do to balance it? Do I grab a tier 1 ACE or two, or do I spread it around to like 4-6 more balanced SP's? 

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12 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

As a long time H2H standard player, how do you transition to Roto? 

In H2H I almost always went with elite hitters and basically forego-ed SP entirely... relying on bargain bin guys instead.

But in ROTO, this doesn't work out well. I need quality pitching. As someone who spends their wad in auctions on hitting, what would you suggest I do to balance it? Do I grab a tier 1 ACE or two, or do I spread it around to like 4-6 more balanced SP's? 

 

Auction i always go for 2 top 15 SP kinda deal then go bargain hunting, need 2 reliable SP that you can take to the bank

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16 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

As a long time H2H standard player, how do you transition to Roto? 

In H2H I almost always went with elite hitters and basically forego-ed SP entirely... relying on bargain bin guys instead.

But in ROTO, this doesn't work out well. I need quality pitching. As someone who spends their wad in auctions on hitting, what would you suggest I do to balance it? Do I grab a tier 1 ACE or two, or do I spread it around to like 4-6 more balanced SP's? 

 

I'm no roto expert but I've been making the transition a bit recently. What I've noticed is in roto you really CAN'T ignore a category or position.  Being near the bottom of any category makes winning the league very difficult.  In general the easiest method to win is aim to be in the top third in every category, which means you #1) have to have a plan for every category and #2) safe mediocrity won't cut it. 

As far as pitchers, I wouldn't say it universally makes them more valuable overall but it changes the outlook especially if you have any type of innings limit. Typically I aim for 1-2 top level guys, 1-2 mid level "poised to take the next step", then really go heavy on high upside late round guys. In roto I really try to avoid the inning-eater low-mediocre k/9 type of pitchers.  I like having a few guys to stabilize my staff and smooth over any bumps incurred by those late round gambles, but overall what wins you in roto is "hitting" on a mid level guy like Nola last year or a late round crapshoot like Snell.  High K upside young guys and people transitioning from relief to starter are my typical favorite targets late. 

More than one way to skin a cat, but that's my personal strategy. Good luck. 

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would you care about being really weak in sb or SP if players you like and value highly keep on falling to you in the draft? 

how much do you focus on being balanced in stats vs getting players you value highly or players you view as returning value

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

would you care about being really weak in sb or SP if players you like and value highly keep on falling to you in the draft? 

how much do you focus on being balanced in stats vs getting players you value highly or players you view as returning value

 

I assume this question pertains to categories leagues, since "balance" really doesn't matter in points.

Even if we limit the discussion to 5x5 roto, the answer depends on a lot of factors.  In no trade leagues (draft and hold, etc.) you're in trouble if you don't have at least some balance.  In leagues where you can trade, especially in leagues with a lot of active traders, it's not a terrible idea to go best players available and trade your way into a squad that has balanced production across the roto categories.

Otherwise, it depends on what you mean by "really weak" in SB or SP.  I would never *not* take a SP in the first 5 rounds, but I don't always reach for top-shelf aces, either.  Meanwhile I'm not going to pay Mondesi's price, but I'll usually try to get at least one decent bet for 30+ SB and some others to chip in double digits.

One way or another, you need to find your way to a balanced squad by mid-season or you're unlikely to contend in roto.  Punting a single category like SB *can* work, but you have to hammer the other categories.  Fading SP entirely is something I've only seen work when a team hits on a bunch of real longshots.  Don't think it's a repeatable way to win.

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yea im talking h2h thought that was kinda implied as a balanced draft in roto is pretty much mandatory 

 

im talking about only 2.5 guys that steals bags something like acuna, pham, moncada for example being the only guys on your team that has a chance at 20+ bags and everyone else you will be lucky if they steal 5 bags each (standard roster 2 util)

like you said you can make trades during the year but most people are reluctant to trade sb without getting any back, same thing with ace pitchers (unless they have a surplus)

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I’m in a deep 16 team 6x6 savehold dynasty league and almost every year I try to get SP/RP relievers to pad my ratios and saveholds. I’ve found this is beneficial, the opportunity cost is usually a bench bat or bad starting pitcher. I run 6 or sometimes 7 relievers vs most teams at 4-5 (5 is max without sp/rp).

As part of roster construction, it’s almost an absolute requirement that my starting pitchers have big strikeout ability. I ultimately might have less starts than other teams.

End result is I’m usually top tier in Ks and ratios and SVHD, and below top tier but still competitive in QS. That’s got me top tier in 5 out of 6 pitching categories (ERA, WHIP, k/bb, k, svhd).

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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I'm playing in a points salary cap league that's not h2h it's season long, is it more important to invest in pitching or hitting, there are no negative points for pitching in this league.

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6 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I'm playing in a points salary cap league that's not h2h it's season long, is it more important to invest in pitching or hitting, there are no negative points for pitching in this league.

 

I'm not too familiar with points leagues but if there is no penalty for pitching I would favor pitching early. 

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One of my analyses I do every year is compare Yahoo's rankings (as all my leagues are on Yahoo) to the Fantasy Experts Consensus rankings. I'm a believer in that the consensus of experts will beat any single expert in the long term so I use this to judge who are bargains on Yahoo (ranked higher by consensus) or who are overpriced (ranked higher by Yahoo). I feel like this is always a good starting point to see how the site you are using is pricing players as you can use this to take advantage of that site's ADP or Projected Auction value on draft day.

For this analysis, because Yahoo is a pain to pull rankings into excel, I just used the 3 Yahoo experts rankings consensus, which in review of the players that stood out matched up pretty well with Yahoo's actual rankings.

 

Once I ran the reports and compared the 2 lists, 8 players stood out to me as over / under valued:

Undervalued: Jurickson Profar, Steven Matz, Amed Rosario, Joey Wendle.

Overvalued: Nick Senzel, Jonathan Villar, Wade Davis, and Masahiro Tanaka.

 

Based on this, I'm pretty confident I can get Profar / Matz / Rosario relatively cheaply in Yahoo. Rosario specifically is ranked 198 in Yahoo vs 150 in the Consensus (48 picks, 4 rounds!).  Even if I overpay a couple rounds on Yahoo, based on the consensus it still comes in as a big bargain. Profar was 160 vs 143. If he's a guy you like, you should have no problem overpaying a round or 2 in Yahoo. Wendle (289 vs 244 = 49) and Matz (303 vs 258= 45) come into play for deeper leagues.

As for the overvalued, I really like Villar so he is someone I definitely will have to scrutinize as Yahoo has him over 25 picks earlier than the Consensus, a full two rounds. Same goes for anyone that loves the other 3. Senzel specifically goes from 251 to 212, which is big for a deeper league drafting 300 players. Davis looks like the only majorly overpriced closer. 

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12 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

One of my analyses I do every year is compare Yahoo's rankings (as all my leagues are on Yahoo) to the Fantasy Experts Consensus rankings. I'm a believer in that the consensus of experts will beat any single expert in the long term so I use this to judge who are bargains on Yahoo (ranked higher by consensus) or who are overpriced (ranked higher by Yahoo). I feel like this is always a good starting point to see how the site you are using is pricing players as you can use this to take advantage of that site's ADP or Projected Auction value on draft day.

For this analysis, because Yahoo is a pain to pull rankings into excel, I just used the 3 Yahoo experts rankings consensus, which in review of the players that stood out matched up pretty well with Yahoo's actual rankings.

 

Once I ran the reports and compared the 2 lists, 8 players stood out to me as over / under valued:

Undervalued: Jurickson Profar, Steven Matz, Amed Rosario, Joey Wendle.

Overvalued: Nick Senzel, Jonathan Villar, Wade Davis, and Masahiro Tanaka.

 

Based on this, I'm pretty confident I can get Profar / Matz / Rosario relatively cheaply in Yahoo. Rosario specifically is ranked 198 in Yahoo vs 150 in the Consensus (48 picks, 4 rounds!).  Even if I overpay a couple rounds on Yahoo, based on the consensus it still comes in as a big bargain. Profar was 160 vs 143. If he's a guy you like, you should have no problem overpaying a round or 2 in Yahoo. Wendle (289 vs 244 = 49) and Matz (303 vs 258= 45) come into play for deeper leagues.

As for the overvalued, I really like Villar so he is someone I definitely will have to scrutinize as Yahoo has him over 25 picks earlier than the Consensus, a full two rounds. Same goes for anyone that loves the other 3. Senzel specifically goes from 251 to 212, which is big for a deeper league drafting 300 players. Davis looks like the only majorly overpriced closer. 

 

Digging further in, if I look at the percentage variance, I find a few more outliers:

Overvalued: Freddie Freeman 13 on Yahoo, 21 on Consensus - 8 picks that early in draft is huge. Gary Sanchez 64 on Yahoo, 78 on Consensus. Yahoo very high on Colome and Herrera oddly.

Undervalued: Carlos Carrasco 49 on Yahoo 38 on Consensus. Luke Voit 230 on Yahoo vs 187 Consensus - seems loved on these boards so that is huge. Patrick Corbin 83 on Yahoo vs 63 Consensus.

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Anyone have any under the radar OBP targets?  I have my sights on Nimmo, Pham, Carpenter and maybe Mallex Smith depending on how I'm looking speed by the time he's popping up on the board.  But always looking for tips on guys I may be overlooking.

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2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Anyone have any under the radar OBP targets?  I have my sights on Nimmo, Pham, Carpenter and maybe Mallex Smith depending on how I'm looking speed by the time he's popping up on the board.  But always looking for tips on guys I may be overlooking.

 

I really like Carlos Santana in OBP leagues especially with the drop off in 1B after the top guys. Josh Bell is another one I like at 1B. Eaton in the OF could be a steal if he can stay healthy and had a good track record with his OBP. Winker has been talked about in a lot of sleeper threads and could lead off for CIN. Catcher is a wasteland but in OBP leagues there are a few guys I wanted late that actually help a bit in OBP and provide what most catchers do it now other categories. Posey (injury risk but he's going very late), Cervelli, Chirinos and Narvaez. Those are just a few of the names I noticed from my draft yesterday that I feel hold more value in OBP leagues than in average leagues. 

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

Anyone have any under the radar OBP targets?  I have my sights on Nimmo, Pham, Carpenter and maybe Mallex Smith depending on how I'm looking speed by the time he's popping up on the board.  But always looking for tips on guys I may be overlooking.

 

Nimmo, Pham, and Carpenter aren't under the radar in OBP leagues. Everyone in OBP leagues will be looking at them.

Some guys that might not be OBP monsters but will be much more valuable are Danny Jansen, Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber. I also think Pete Alonso could be a high OBP guy with an about .250 average.

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3 hours ago, Baur10 said:

Anyone have any under the radar OBP targets?  I have my sights on Nimmo, Pham, Carpenter and maybe Mallex Smith depending on how I'm looking speed by the time he's popping up on the board.  But always looking for tips on guys I may be overlooking.

 

Miguel Sano should be poised for a comeback year. Low BA but walks a ton to go with his power

 

Don’t know if Aaron Hicks is considered under the radar but I would target him based on his plate discipline.

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Since I play in points leagues, I target hitters with low strikeout percentages, such as Ramirez, Votto, Brantley, Benintendi, etc. 

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Since I play in points leagues, I target hitters with low strikeout percentages, such as Ramirez, Votto, Brantley, Benintendi, etc. 

Good advice Fuzzy-do you want to share what pitchers you are high on in points leagues.   Thanks

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On 2/16/2019 at 4:23 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

I’m in a deep 16 team 6x6 savehold dynasty league and almost every year I try to get SP/RP relievers to pad my ratios and saveholds. I’ve found this is beneficial, the opportunity cost is usually a bench bat or bad starting pitcher. I run 6 or sometimes 7 relievers vs most teams at 4-5 (5 is max without sp/rp).

As part of roster construction, it’s almost an absolute requirement that my starting pitchers have big strikeout ability. I ultimately might have less starts than other teams.

End result is I’m usually top tier in Ks and ratios and SVHD, and below top tier but still competitive in QS. That’s got me top tier in 5 out of 6 pitching categories (ERA, WHIP, k/bb, k, svhd).

This. In holds leagues I've done well soft-punting wins, splitting auction budget 75-85% towards hitters and focusing my wire attention on good ratio middle relievers and emergent setup guys. SP/RP eligible guys who get leverage are gold. It synergizes with the "openers" trend as well. This year I'm watching guys like Diego Castillo, Matt Strahm, Robbie Erlin & Drew Gagnon as guys who (like Phelps, Lugo, Devenski, Davis etc.) might contribute more fantasy value if they don't make the rotation. 

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23 hours ago, Baur10 said:

Anyone have any under the radar OBP targets?  I have my sights on Nimmo, Pham, Carpenter and maybe Mallex Smith depending on how I'm looking speed by the time he's popping up on the board.  But always looking for tips on guys I may be overlooking.

 

Jesse Winker

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Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

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7 minutes ago, Del Rio said:

Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

 

Don't see how this would work. In this environment you'd have to pay a lot to get 2 elite SP and a bunch of closers. You'd probably end up with weak hitting. And you lose the win / strikeout value you are paying for with the elite pitchers.

Edited by Sidearmer

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25 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

...And you lose the win / strikeout value you are paying for with the elite pitchers.

That was my thought; perhaps it would be to gain a W and K advantage over other teams in the league that may implement that strategy? Regardless, seems like a waste of money that could go towards hitting, like you mentioned. Either way, I haven't seen the all (or mostly) closer strategy work consistently.

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9 minutes ago, Del Rio said:

Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

 

2 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Don't see how this would work. In this environment you'd have to pay a lot to get 2 elite SP and a bunch of closers. You'd probably end up with weak hitting. And you lose the win / strikeout value you are paying for with the elite pitchers.

 

I find it really hard to do well consistently if you only get 2 SPs and spend a lot of draft picks on closers while other teams load up on hitting. I think it's fairly easy for your opponent to counter this strategy. For example, let's say your opponent has two very good starts from their pitchers to begin the week. They could easily bench the rest of their starters and play their matchups to make sure they compete with you in ratios but also pretty much guarantee they beat you in wins and k's due to their advantage in volume. That leaves you with an advantage in one pitching category, saves, which is unpredictable from week to week anyway. On top of that, they likely have a better offense than you because while you were loading up on closers they were rounding out their starting lineups, leaving you losing the majority of hitting categories. You may win a lot of weeks 6-4 or 5-4 but you will also lose a lot of week 7-3 or worse.

 

The best way to approach this strategy, imo, is to get your two elite SPs within the 1st 4 rounds. This allows you to get two elite bats while also making it so you can focus solely on hitting for the next 5+ rounds. You'll likely have a better offense than most of your opponents because they'll be draft closers and other SPs while you build you offense. That being said I never pay a high draft pick for a closer and often punt the category entirely on draft day unless there are guys late that I feel can help my ratios and pick up some saves (May and Minter are two I really liked entering this year). This seems to contradict the strategy we're talking however I get my closers by constantly keeping up with the closer thread on these forums throughout the season. Instead of grabbing closers on draft day I focus on getting 4-6 MR pitchers that have good ratios and elite K%. Guys like Betances, Jeffress, Green, Stammen, Ottavino, Kela, Trivino to name a few are extremely valuable to me when using this strategy even though they may not get saves for most of the season. I also will tend to roster a few of the best next in line guys for teams that anticipate trading their current closer or have a current closer who is on rocky ground. I also really like guys like Strahm, Peacock and Stripling because they could move back and forth between the pen and rotation giving me even more innings of elite ratios and k's. 

 

At most I carry 5-6 SPs and the rest of my bench is made up of these MRs I just mentioned. I almost never carry more than one bench bat and that one MUST have multi-position eligibility, unless I have a lot of those guys already in my starting lineup.

 

In the end I may not compete in saves for the first half of the season but I usually compete in K's and wins while winning ERA and WHIP most weeks. And since I drafted hitting while most others were taking their closers or rounding out their SP rotations I most often do very well in hitting categories. As the season progresses I wind up having at least 3 closers either because my MRs I drafted stole the role or I dropped one of my MRs for someone on the WW who took over the job. I also like this strategy because when you want to speculate on saves you don't really feel bad by dropping one of your middle relievers that most likely nobody else will snag off the WW. I usually win 6-4 or 7-3 and at worst normally lose 5-4 or 6-4.

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1 hour ago, Del Rio said:

Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

 

In standard yahoo 7 ip and standard espn 10 ip minimum, I've done this 3 times and reached the playoffs all 3 times with 1 1st and 1 2nd and I forget the other but not top 3, in a daily league focusing on hitting and also having your bench being all hitters allows you to dominate the hitting stats and when many teams stream pitching you stream hitters that play on days with less games typically monday and thursday to get a shot at more counting stats.

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