Flyman75

2019 Fantasy Strategy Thread

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Del Rio said:

Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

There's a guy on Fantasy Pro's that is big on this strategy and just wrote an article touting it, I think he calls it the "Marmol Strategy."  He really believes in it, but I have trouble seeing how beneficial it is.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, soccerphysio said:

There's a guy on Fantasy Pro's that is big on this strategy and just wrote an article touting it, I think he calls it the "Marmol Strategy."  He really believes in it, but I have trouble seeing how beneficial it is.

I did a yahoo pro 250 league last year and someone drafted sale, max, Chapman and Kimbrel. When you use this strategy you basically have to get lucky with your hitters and he did by drafting story and yelich in the 8th and 11th rounds. Ended up finishing 2nd. I get the concept but still would rather avoid an extreme strategy. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, jay2491 said:

I did a yahoo pro 250 league last year and someone drafted sale, max, Chapman and Kimbrel. When you use this strategy you basically have to get lucky with your hitters and he did by drafting story and yelich in the 8th and 11th rounds. Ended up finishing 2nd. I get the concept but still would rather avoid an extreme strategy. 

In a Pro 100 league I was in, someone drafted deGrom, Jansen, and a bunch of other relievers and loaded up on offense while hitting on Story and Acuna breakouts. He still finished 5th.

I'd rather do what I normally do: draft BPA (or draft for value in auction), pay minimal money for closers, and pounce on the wire when the closer volatility strikes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Del Rio said:

Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

It works. Tried it last year. Now going to try it in Roto leagues. In my 6x6 NL only league I'll dominate saves, holds, era, whip. Might finish low at Ks and Ws but I won't be spending nearly as much on pitching and I could load up on offense. For example, give me Diaz, Hader, and Dominguez and I will end up spending 1/3 of 3 top end SPs like Corbin, Taillon, Hamels. 

People will bash it but it works. Only problem is if you have an innings limit. But most leagues aren't too strict from my experience. In a 10 pitcher slot league the highest I have seen is 800 which is easily attainable by just using your 9-10 spots for SP matchups on the wire. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Ry34No said:

It works. Tried it last year. Now going to try it in Roto leagues. In my 6x6 NL only league I'll dominate saves, holds, era, whip. Might finish low at Ks and Ws but I won't be spending nearly as much on pitching and I could load up on offense. For example, give me Diaz, Hader, and Dominguez and I will end up spending 1/3 of 3 top end SPs like Corbin, Taillon, Hamels. 

People will bash it but it works. Only problem is if you have an innings limit. But most leagues aren't too strict from my experience. In a 10 pitcher slot league the highest I have seen is 800 which is easily attainable by just using your 9-10 spots for SP matchups on the wire. 

 

Well if your league has Holds its a completely different story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

only works if you get the closers for fair value. if your using your rds 3-6 picks on closers then your punting 2 categories and you will also have one of the bottom tier offenses (after the draft atleast). you will also have a lot of trouble with teams that stack offenses and don't focus much on sp ratios. gift them wins and ks and they also have a much better offense then you. they also have the ability to cherry pick their sp matchups and try and win the ratios and always fall back on wins and ks

you will have a rough time. throw in the weeks where one or two of your closers gets bombed and that's a recipe for 2-8 or 1-9 weeks

Edited by colepenhagen
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's everyone's general strategy of you have a good keeper list?  In my Al only league I have around 220 dollars of "value" being kept at 120 dollars of my available 260.  Would you steer clear of riskier investments? Or take some more risks, since if they bust you already have a solid base to recover from it.  Would you invest for example in someone like Miguel Sano or Asdrubal Cabrera if they cost the same?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

What's everyone's general strategy of you have a good keeper list?  In my Al only league I have around 220 dollars of "value" being kept at 120 dollars of my available 260.  Would you steer clear of riskier investments? Or take some more risks, since if they bust you already have a solid base to recover from it.  Would you invest for example in someone like Miguel Sano or Asdrubal Cabrera if they cost the same?

 

I priroritze a portion of dollars for players I love at certain prices, but build in backup and extra backup players if the price gets crazy. Also always leave some flexibility in case some guy is just forgotten about randomly, its rare but does happen and having flexibility to pounce is big.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those of you picking at the end of the 1st with the wrap around pick, what are you doing about pitching? At least in h2h or roto I don't love going SP over the options likely available at 12-15 but if you don't you're stuck waiting till pick 36-40 which is right around where I perceive the cusp of those SP1 type pitchers should be available (eg Bauer, Syndergaard, Carrasco, maybe Buehler etc).  

So all things being equal do you play it safe and nail down an ace early, or roll the dice knowing if there's a decent chance the aces are all done before your pick in round 3? (personally if that happened to me I probably end up with someone from that Clevinger/Flaherty/Taillon cluster as my first pitcher).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

For those of you picking at the end of the 1st with the wrap around pick, what are you doing about pitching? At least in h2h or roto I don't love going SP over the options likely available at 12-15 but if you don't you're stuck waiting till pick 36-40 which is right around where I perceive the cusp of those SP1 type pitchers should be available (eg Bauer, Syndergaard, Carrasco, maybe Buehler etc).  

So all things being equal do you play it safe and nail down an ace early, or roll the dice knowing if there's a decent chance the aces are all done before your pick in round 3? (personally if that happened to me I probably end up with someone from that Clevinger/Flaherty/Taillon cluster as my first pitcher).

went bat bat at pick 10/15 and buehler made it back to me in the 4th pick 39 (thor carasco, bauer were all still available)

have seen at least 2 of snell, severino, cole, buehler being available in late 3rd rd in all three 12 team snakes I have been in

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

went bat bat at pick 10/15 and buehler made it back to me in the 4th pick 39 (thor carasco, bauer were all still available)

have seen at least 2 of snell, severino, cole, buehler being available in late 3rd rd in all three 12 team snakes I have been in

Curious who the bats were. I always try to go Bat, Bat, Bat then pick my first SP1 in 4th round and I'm hoping Walker or Bauer is there. Getting 2 or 3 elite hitters is always the catalyst for my teams then get a solid SP1 then heavy hitters and wait on Pitching. If you miss out on elite SP you can always make it up by drafting SP/RP with elite K's and ratios. Easier to make up poor SP than poor hitting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

went bat bat at pick 10/15 and buehler made it back to me in the 4th pick 39 (thor carasco, bauer were all still available)

have seen at least 2 of snell, severino, cole, buehler being available in late 3rd rd in all three 12 team snakes I have been in

 

Good to know. If I'm writing a script going bat/bat then grabbing one of those guys in the 3/4 turn around would be ideal, but seems as if I've seen pitching runs earlier and earlier.  Just makes me nervous with that long wait I suppose. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Hatfieldodger said:

Curious who the bats were. I always try to go Bat, Bat, Bat then pick my first SP1 in 4th round and I'm hoping Walker or Bauer is there. Getting 2 or 3 elite hitters is always the catalyst for my teams then get a solid SP1 then heavy hitters and wait on Pitching. If you miss out on elite SP you can always make it up by drafting SP/RP with elite K's and ratios. Easier to make up poor SP than poor hitting. 

yelich and harper. fwiw  max went 4 and deGrom 9

 

6 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Good to know. If I'm writing a script going bat/bat then grabbing one of those guys in the 3/4 turn around would be ideal, but seems as if I've seen pitching runs earlier and earlier.  Just makes me nervous with that long wait I suppose. 

yea roto it might be different

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

yea roto it might be different

 

And even more so in some points leagues I'd wager but yeah I play in both roto/h2h and I guess that changes things a bit. Tried not to make it too league specific though. Just seems as if you're good you end up with that wrap around pick a lot, and with that big gap the first 4 round strategy is important.

Edited by Baur10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I play in typical 5x5 h2h. I’m thinking of not drafting any relief pitchers during the draft and picking up closers on the waiver instead. Maybe even drafting high upside middle relievers like betances and forgoing saves all together. Has anyone had any luck with these strategies? Closers are just so volatile and there’s a lot more putting the best pitcher in the most leverage situation than ever before. Also out of curiosity, how many starting pitchers do you like to have in this format? 6? 7? More?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, wcollin9 said:

I play in typical 5x5 h2h. I’m thinking of not drafting any relief pitchers during the draft and picking up closers on the waiver instead. Maybe even drafting high upside middle relievers like betances and forgoing saves all together. Has anyone had any luck with these strategies? Closers are just so volatile and there’s a lot more putting the best pitcher in the most leverage situation than ever before. Also out of curiosity, how many starting pitchers do you like to have in this format? 6? 7? More?

Depends on a few things: Roster Size, amount of teams, and level of competition.

If it is a very competitive league, you will have trouble acquiring closers throughout the season and will have to completely forego Saves... which kinda sucks.

If it's a very deep league, you won't get too many opportunities to grab closers so again you'll have to forego saves... sucks.

However, if it's a non competitive shallow standard league, then yes it's the best plan... I consider these leagues to be like Standard Public Yahoo 12 team leagues. In these leagues, I can easily grab 6+ closers from the wire as the season goes on and by the time the playoffs are there I'll be killing every team in saves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will not overreact to spring training stats. 

 

Rinse repeat. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anyone in here that plays in a 14-team weekly roto? I'm looking for some insight into how you'd structure a weekly pitching staff of 8. We have a slow draft coming up, and I'm thinking through how many SPs I want to target. And it starts, to me, with how many SPs I want to start in any given week. 

 

So ideally...in a 14-team weekly roto league...do you go with 5 SP, 3 RP...4 and 4...6 and 2? 

 

Last year was my first year in this league, and it had been probably 20 years since I had played in a weekly league and was my first 14-teamer. And it showed. My pitching was a trainwreck all season, and I felt like I could never catch up. In a 14-teamer, there just wasn't the depth on the wire to make much of a difference. So I languished and finished 13th in total pitching points. Funny thing is, I've always prided myself on being able to pull together a good, competitive pitching staff. That one was anything but. 

 

So thoughts or insights? I thought this might be a BC post, but since it's strategy-related and not player-specific, I place it here. Hope that's cool with the mods. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I never thought about a weekly line up Roto based league, however that is kind of awesome. It forces the managers to map out their weekly rotation.

30 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

So ideally...in a 14-team weekly roto league...do you go with 5 SP, 3 RP...4 and 4...6 and 2? 

 

I think it ultimately changes on a week to week basis and also depends who you have.

You start your studs no matter what, but if you have a good 2-start week from a mid level SP, I think you have to start him unless it's rough opponents. The mid-level starters vs. the RP's comes down to who the mid-level starters face and where. If it's an easy opponent at home or something (etc.) then start the starter. I think I'd want 3 RP starting in that league set up and choose my best 5 SP for the given week.

Just gotta make sure you reach the IP mark. In fact, what is your IP limit in that league?

 

I gotta imagine the ACEs in that league are very valuable. Must be nice to have Chris Sale and know that he will stay in one of those spots all season pretty much. etc.

Edited by CrypTviLL
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few years ago I played in a 12 team weekly roto league with 30 man rosters. Pitching is definitely a struggle in these types of leagues. The best way I've found to go about it is to map out the innings pitched based on the limits. You never want to be at a point where you are either way ahead or behind. Way ahead means you are probably wasting resources you could be using for more ABs or potential higher quality relief innings. Way behind means you will get crushed in W and K. Once you figure that out you just have to trust your evaluations and that your picks will pan out.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I never thought about a weekly line up Roto based league, however that is kind of awesome. It forces the managers to map out their weekly rotation.

I think it ultimately changes on a week to week basis and also depends who you have.

You start your studs no matter what, but if you have a good 2-start week from a mid level SP, I think you have to start him unless it's rough opponents. The mid-level starters vs. the RP's comes down to who the mid-level starters face and where. If it's an easy opponent at home or something (etc.) then start the starter. I think I'd want 3 RP starting in that league set up and choose my best 5 SP for the given week.

Just gotta make sure you reach the IP mark. In fact, what is your IP limit in that league?

 

I gotta imagine the ACEs in that league are very valuable. Must be nice to have Chris Sale and know that he will stay in one of those spots all season pretty much. etc.

 

No limit. There's an 800 IP minimum, but that's it. Aces are very valuable and difficult to come by, especially since you can own a player for five years before he has to go back into the draft. My problem was twofold. One, I took over a crappy team in an established league. Two, I didn't have anything close to an ace last year, and the only pitcher I had worth making one of my 7 keepers was Marquez. So that's what I'm going into the draft with, lol. Anyway, that's getting into CSB territory.

 

Just trying to formulate a viable strategy to pull myself out of the doldrums. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I will not overreact to spring training stats. 

 

Rinse repeat. 

*Slowly removes Lewis Brinson from autodraft list*

 

OK I got another question: what older vets are you targeting? I find myself always fading guys over 30, especially guys showing signs of regression, in lieu of younger sexier names.  That being said guys like Michael Brantley, Kris Davis, Nick Markakis among others were all solid investments last year. So what older guys have an ADP you like?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Is there anyone in here that plays in a 14-team weekly roto? I'm looking for some insight into how you'd structure a weekly pitching staff of 8. We have a slow draft coming up, and I'm thinking through how many SPs I want to target. And it starts, to me, with how many SPs I want to start in any given week. 

 

So ideally...in a 14-team weekly roto league...do you go with 5 SP, 3 RP...4 and 4...6 and 2? 

 

Last year was my first year in this league, and it had been probably 20 years since I had played in a weekly league and was my first 14-teamer. And it showed. My pitching was a trainwreck all season, and I felt like I could never catch up. In a 14-teamer, there just wasn't the depth on the wire to make much of a difference. So I languished and finished 13th in total pitching points. Funny thing is, I've always prided myself on being able to pull together a good, competitive pitching staff. That one was anything but. 

 

So thoughts or insights? I thought this might be a BC post, but since it's strategy-related and not player-specific, I place it here. Hope that's cool with the mods. 

 

NFBC is like this but 12 teams(online championship) and 15 for the main event but a 1000 IP minimum and no maximum. In roto I put a huge emphasis on ERA and WHIP since unlike counting stats it is much harder to climb the standings. I would try to draft as many set and forget arms as possible and the rest would be upside arms, closers and elite ratio middle relievers and each week would be different based on the matchups. Saves or even speculation saves often become available during the year but often they hurt your ratios so that is why I like to concentrate on your ratios at the draft. It'll be different every week and fantasy pros has 2 great tools for the following week it shows every team and who they are starting for pitchers that week and who they are facing and how they fare vs that handed pitcher. They also have the same thing for hitters it'll show for instance they have 7 games 5 vs RHP, 2 vs LHP and rank them also, this can be big for a guy who mashes lefties or who struggles vs lefties when you have to lock them in for the week and you can see it all on one easy to navigate page.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

for home league (H2H cats)

1. have sick offensive keepers
2. draft elite closers with defined roles (to polish ERA and WHIP)
3. draft high-K pitchers like Darvish, Marquez -- and hope that any peripheral shortcomings are compensated by the aforementioned 'elite closers'
4. wait a bit on OF4 and OF5, and target upside guys like Bader, Margot, Kepler 
5. continue my role as objective, composed commissioner while doubling as a league GM and devouring other team's souls with a barrage of power, speed, and most importantly: OBP  <-- the secret sauce of H2H.  

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What do you think about avoiding some categories? My league is head to head and there are 10 teams. Of course, everything depends on the type of categories that each of our leagues has. In my case these are the categories of my league 9 x 9: 

 

Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Hits (H), Doubles (2B), Triples (3B), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Innings Pitched (IP), Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9)

 

I'm thinking of not taking any type of closer, at least those who are elite, I would consider taking closers in round 15 and up. Since my league does not use holds no one will be looking for the middle relievers (Peacock, Devenski, Chad Green ...), then I would take these waivers or at the end of my draft giving me the possibility of putting together good batters. I'm thinking of taking the first 4 rounds of two elite pitchers and then in round 9-10 to complete with two more. I would take 5 starters since I have 35 IP limit and then with the middle relievers balance the ERA, WHIP and K / 9.

Do you think there are other types of strategies more viable for this type of league? I consider it an interesting topic to discuss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.