Flyman75

2019 Fantasy Strategy Thread

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32 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

What do you think about avoiding some categories? My league is head to head and there are 10 teams. Of course, everything depends on the type of categories that each of our leagues has. In my case these are the categories of my league 9 x 9: 

 

Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Hits (H), Doubles (2B), Triples (3B), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Innings Pitched (IP), Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9)

 

I'm thinking of not taking any type of closer, at least those who are elite, I would consider taking closers in round 15 and up. Since my league does not use holds no one will be looking for the middle relievers (Peacock, Devenski, Chad Green ...), then I would take these waivers or at the end of my draft giving me the possibility of putting together good batters. I'm thinking of taking the first 4 rounds of two elite pitchers and then in round 9-10 to complete with two more. I would take 5 starters since I have 35 IP limit and then with the middle relievers balance the ERA, WHIP and K / 9.

Do you think there are other types of strategies more viable for this type of league? I consider it an interesting topic to discuss.

Since this is only a 10-team league there is absolutely no reason to punt anything.

There will be so much talent left over on the wire and on your team that punting will only hurt you.

Now, I would never take an elite closer and I would instead pile up on dirt-closers towards the end of the draft. That's perfectly find and I find that as getting the most value.

But don't punt here in a shallow league -- that only hurts you. 

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41 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

What do you think about avoiding some categories? My league is head to head and there are 10 teams. Of course, everything depends on the type of categories that each of our leagues has. In my case these are the categories of my league 9 x 9: 

 

Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Hits (H), Doubles (2B), Triples (3B), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Innings Pitched (IP), Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9)

 

I'm thinking of not taking any type of closer, at least those who are elite, I would consider taking closers in round 15 and up. Since my league does not use holds no one will be looking for the middle relievers (Peacock, Devenski, Chad Green ...), then I would take these waivers or at the end of my draft giving me the possibility of putting together good batters. I'm thinking of taking the first 4 rounds of two elite pitchers and then in round 9-10 to complete with two more. I would take 5 starters since I have 35 IP limit and then with the middle relievers balance the ERA, WHIP and K / 9.

Do you think there are other types of strategies more viable for this type of league? I consider it an interesting topic to discuss.

In general I really dislike punting categories.  It places a lot more pressure on you to win the others you don't punt every single week which isn't as sure a thing as you'd like to think.  That being said if there was ever a format in which it could work, it would be in h2h with a boatload of sometimes redundant categories. For example, if you focused here on power bat/high OPS guys and ignored speed you would be "punting" R/SB in lieu of RBI/2B/3B/HR/OBP which seems like a pretty solid trade-off. That is unless other teams follow-suit and the speedier or combo guys values get depressed. Small league size also makes this a bit less viable though as there should be solid talent on the WW unless the bench size is MASSIVE.

Pitching here is less easy to figure out.  If you go SP heavy you bump up IP,W,K, but also likely a higher BB and L unless you go elite SP early on.  Reliever heavy could give you SV, L, BB, ERA, WHIP, and K/9.  Sounds like an easy choice, but I find predicting pitching stats to be much more volatile in general.

If this is my league, I'd focus on high OPS players.  That doesn't mean ignore players with speed (4/5 of the top qualifying OPS players last year had 20+ SBs) but it does mean that 1-2 trick ponies like Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton aren't on my radar (they usually aren't anyway but hey...).  Pitching I agree I'd aim for at least 2 elite starters then I'd aim for high K/9 K/BB upside players beyond that.  I try not to say "OK i want 2 starters by round X and 4 by round Y" because then you're backing yourself into a corner if theres a run on good arms or a really good bat drops. I would identify clusters of SPs you like at their current ADP and  then tentatively aim to select one or 2 in that range (for example, I will almost definitely be grabbing a player from the Taillon/Clevinger/Flaherty cluster in 60-70 range). I don't like the idea of punting saves completely, but I will say in a 10 team league with this many ratio settings you shouldn't be chasing bad closers. If you don't want to pay up for the top guys then closers like Doolittle/Iglesias have an ADP around 130 in ESPN.  Again don't box yourself into a corner as far as a round cut-off/deadline.  Take what the draft gives you.  Then yeah I think locking up with a few top-end relievers for the ratios buffer in a 35 IP limit league makes a lot of sense.

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23 hours ago, Baur10 said:

OK I got another question: what older vets are you targeting? I find myself always fading guys over 30, especially guys showing signs of regression, in lieu of younger sexier names.  That being said guys like Michael Brantley, Kris Davis, Nick Markakis among others were all solid investments last year. So what older guys have an ADP you like? 

On the hitting side, I like Murphy, Cruz, Edwin, Cutch at their current ADPs.  Not as many great values among older arms, but I do like Arrieta, Price, Morton, and Happ.  There are so many older guys with lots of profit to be had where they're going right now.  You don't want too many of them on your team, but like every year, it seems like so many are pushing them down draft boards to make room for young boom/bust breakouts, so you have to get at least 2-3 of your guys on your roster.

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My yearly league is a H2H-category league and this year I'm trying to really dive in and see how it's different than a roto. 

What I'm wondering this year is how much weight should I assign to OBP (or average if your league uses that)? 

 

Going by a player-rater ranking, which is just how a a player's stat is compared to the league average, all stats (HR, R, RBIs, SB, OBP/Avg) are weighted similarly. And this would be correct for roto, because over 162 games players with a higher Avg/OBP will stand out. 

But in a weekly league, where a player only gets ~25-30 plate appearances a week, a .330OBP compared to a .380OBP is 1 extra BB or hit. Therefore, assuming you have maybe 2 elite guys who have OBPs>.380, and the rest of your team has an average OBP of .340-.350, is it even worth it to target/add value to those .380OBP hitters given the variance of week-to-week stats. 

I don't know if I'm just looking at things wrong, or oversimplifying, but if I want to put together ranks, would it make sense to weight the hitting categories differently? So for example, I would still use the ESPN player rater, but then give OBP a weight of 50-75% of its actual value. This moves guys like Gallo, Schwarber up in the ranks, and devalues guys like Votto. 

 

Anybody try something similar to this? 

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On 3/6/2019 at 8:58 AM, Baur10 said:

*Slowly removes Lewis Brinson from autodraft list*

 

OK I got another question: what older vets are you targeting? I find myself always fading guys over 30, especially guys showing signs of regression, in lieu of younger sexier names.  That being said guys like Michael Brantley, Kris Davis, Nick Markakis among others were all solid investments last year. So what older guys have an ADP you like?

 

Not necessarily targeting, but keeping my eye on in case the value is too good to pass up:

 

Kershaw

Blackmon

Pollock

EE

Cano

MadBum

Donaldson

Cruz

Miggy

Smoak

Arrieta

 

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@tonycpsu and @Members_Only_76 both looking at a Arrieta "tout" at his ADP. Fantasy aside I really want to believe that he'll bounce back with his knee healthy this year.

 

Here's hoping...

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The year of the comebacks will win a lot some leagues. Correa, Bryant will be late 1st round next year IMO. Taking 2 stud SP and some undervalued hitter in 3-5 is the money maker!

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12 hours ago, bluejays95 said:

My yearly league is a H2H-category league and this year I'm trying to really dive in and see how it's different than a roto. 

What I'm wondering this year is how much weight should I assign to OBP (or average if your league uses that)? 

 

Going by a player-rater ranking, which is just how a a player's stat is compared to the league average, all stats (HR, R, RBIs, SB, OBP/Avg) are weighted similarly. And this would be correct for roto, because over 162 games players with a higher Avg/OBP will stand out. 

But in a weekly league, where a player only gets ~25-30 plate appearances a week, a .330OBP compared to a .380OBP is 1 extra BB or hit. Therefore, assuming you have maybe 2 elite guys who have OBPs>.380, and the rest of your team has an average OBP of .340-.350, is it even worth it to target/add value to those .380OBP hitters given the variance of week-to-week stats. 

I don't know if I'm just looking at things wrong, or oversimplifying, but if I want to put together ranks, would it make sense to weight the hitting categories differently? So for example, I would still use the ESPN player rater, but then give OBP a weight of 50-75% of its actual value. This moves guys like Gallo, Schwarber up in the ranks, and devalues guys like Votto. 

 

Anybody try something similar to this? 

 

I still weight them the same in preseason evaluations.  One extra BB or hit will win the OBP category some weeks, and that happens more often than you think.  Plus if you are strong in OBP (or Avg) early in a particular week, you can focus on SB or other counting stats later in the week.  You can then plug in your lower OBP bench guys with speed or power when a particular counting stat is coming down to the wire.  

 

Speaking specifically of Gallo, though, he is gold in OBP.  He's going to be .330-.340ish OBP which isn't a drag at all compared to his value in AVG leagues.  In my OBP league I had him as the #29 overall player. Schwarber also is more valuable in OBP.  

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13 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

On the hitting side, I like Murphy, Cruz, Edwin, Cutch at their current ADPs.  Not as many great values among older arms, but I do like Arrieta, Price, Morton, and Happ.  There are so many older guys with lots of profit to be had where they're going right now.  You don't want too many of them on your team, but like every year, it seems like so many are pushing them down draft boards to make room for young boom/bust breakouts, so you have to get at least 2-3 of your guys on your roster.

 

Thoughts on Joey Votto, Tony? I personally think he has a lot left in the tank still.

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On 2/24/2019 at 8:57 AM, Baur10 said:

Anyone have any under the radar OBP targets?  I have my sights on Nimmo, Pham, Carpenter and maybe Mallex Smith depending on how I'm looking speed by the time he's popping up on the board.  But always looking for tips on guys I may be overlooking.

 

Christin Stewart had a 12.8% BB rate at AAA last year, and a 13.9 rate in 17 MLB games.  His BA is projected to be in the .230-.240 range, but he could certainly pull off a Carlos Santana type season.

Omar Narvaez played 90+ games for the White Sox the last two seasons posting OBPs of .373 and .366.  He'll be Seattle's primary catcher.  

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On ‎3‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 11:27 AM, Baur10 said:

In general I really dislike punting categories.  It places a lot more pressure on you to win the others you don't punt every single week which isn't as sure a thing as you'd like to think.  That being said if there was ever a format in which it could work, it would be in h2h with a boatload of sometimes redundant categories. For example, if you focused here on power bat/high OPS guys and ignored speed you would be "punting" R/SB in lieu of RBI/2B/3B/HR/OBP which seems like a pretty solid trade-off. That is unless other teams follow-suit and the speedier or combo guys values get depressed. Small league size also makes this a bit less viable though as there should be solid talent on the WW unless the bench size is MASSIVE.

Pitching here is less easy to figure out.  If you go SP heavy you bump up IP,W,K, but also likely a higher BB and L unless you go elite SP early on.  Reliever heavy could give you SV, L, BB, ERA, WHIP, and K/9.  Sounds like an easy choice, but I find predicting pitching stats to be much more volatile in general.

If this is my league, I'd focus on high OPS players.  That doesn't mean ignore players with speed (4/5 of the top qualifying OPS players last year had 20+ SBs) but it does mean that 1-2 trick ponies like Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton aren't on my radar (they usually aren't anyway but hey...).  Pitching I agree I'd aim for at least 2 elite starters then I'd aim for high K/9 K/BB upside players beyond that.  I try not to say "OK i want 2 starters by round X and 4 by round Y" because then you're backing yourself into a corner if theres a run on good arms or a really good bat drops. I would identify clusters of SPs you like at their current ADP and  then tentatively aim to select one or 2 in that range (for example, I will almost definitely be grabbing a player from the Taillon/Clevinger/Flaherty cluster in 60-70 range). I don't like the idea of punting saves completely, but I will say in a 10 team league with this many ratio settings you shouldn't be chasing bad closers. If you don't want to pay up for the top guys then closers like Doolittle/Iglesias have an ADP around 130 in ESPN.  Again don't box yourself into a corner as far as a round cut-off/deadline.  Take what the draft gives you.  Then yeah I think locking up with a few top-end relievers for the ratios buffer in a 35 IP limit league makes a lot of sense.

 

It is not better to use the wOBA instead of the OPS since this league uses AVG?

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Basically the strategy is to load up on hitters in the first 8-10 rounds, and only draft RPs to fill your P slots. In theory your offense should be towards the top because of how much you invested in bats early on, and your pitching should take 3/5 categories most weeks.

 

Obviously this strategy can only be done in a H2H categories league with low innings min. But I can see it working 

 

Has anyone every tried this strategy? 

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8 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:


Basically the strategy is to load up on hitters in the first 8-10 rounds, and only draft RPs to fill your P slots. In theory your offense should be towards the top because of how much you invested in bats early on, and your pitching should take 3/5 categories most weeks.

 

Obviously this strategy can only be done in a H2H categories league with low innings min. But I can see it working 

 

Has anyone every tried this strategy? 

 

I have done it 3 times, but never at the draft. I did it twice loading up on hitting then just selling whatever sp i had that were too good to drop, usually was like 2 or 3. In these instances I finished 2nd and 1st in both the regular season and playoffs. The third time I did it I had a balanced team but injuries, struggles and then 1 trade offered to me got the ball rolling, anyways in this instance I finished 3rd in regular season but 5th in the playoffs but my offense wasn't as dominant as in the other 2 instances as I didnt load up like I did there. Its a strategy that barring all sorts of bad luck I would say it is damm near impossible to miss the playoffs but once in the playoffs you could easily lose in a 1 week matchup if you struggle or if your opponent has a hot week etc...

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

I have done it 3 times, but never at the draft. I did it twice loading up on hitting then just selling whatever sp i had that were too good to drop, usually was like 2 or 3. In these instances I finished 2nd and 1st in both the regular season and playoffs. The third time I did it I had a balanced team but injuries, struggles and then 1 trade offered to me got the ball rolling, anyways in this instance I finished 3rd in regular season but 5th in the playoffs but my offense wasn't as dominant as in the other 2 instances as I didnt load up like I did there. Its a strategy that barring all sorts of bad luck I would say it is damm near impossible to miss the playoffs but once in the playoffs you could easily lose in a 1 week matchup if you struggle or if your opponent has a hot week etc...

 

 

 

I went for it this year. Not sure if my offense is QUITE good enough. But excited to see what happens. 12 team league

 

C. Realmuto
1B, Rizzo
2B. Scooter
3B. Carpenter
SS Bregman
OF JD
OF Pham
OF Nimmo
UTL Villar
UTL Meadows
UTL Schwarber

Bench: Winker, G. Polanco, Grichuk, Eaton, Senzel

SP Nola
RP Hand
RP Hader

P Knebel
P W. Smith
P. Dellin
P. Ottavino
P. Trevor May
 

Edited by to_be_quite_frank
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15 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

I have done it 3 times, but never at the draft. I did it twice loading up on hitting then just selling whatever sp i had that were too good to drop, usually was like 2 or 3. In these instances I finished 2nd and 1st in both the regular season and playoffs. The third time I did it I had a balanced team but injuries, struggles and then 1 trade offered to me got the ball rolling, anyways in this instance I finished 3rd in regular season but 5th in the playoffs but my offense wasn't as dominant as in the other 2 instances as I didnt load up like I did there. Its a strategy that barring all sorts of bad luck I would say it is damm near impossible to miss the playoffs but once in the playoffs you could easily lose in a 1 week matchup if you struggle or if your opponent has a hot week etc...

 

 

 

I'm not a H2H guy, but I used this strategy when I have played and had the same experience---good way to be a top regular season team but tough to win in the playoffs when you are not really competing in a couple categories.


This is, as an aside, why I'm not huge on H2H...the small samples are really killers.

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Does anyone else start with two catchers and run them out based on playing time?

 

Like Contreras/Alfaro

 

Or is that a waste of space

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42 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Does anyone else start with two catchers and run them out based on playing time?

 

Like Contreras/Alfaro

 

Or is that a waste of space

 

If you have deep benches and games played/IP limits, it makes sense. You want to maximize games played for counting stats, and a bench catcher likely fills in more GP than most bench bats. Also allows you to use Kurt Suzuki to maximum effectiveness. 

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46 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Does anyone else start with two catchers and run them out based on playing time?

I've done it in dynasty when I have a young catcher and an older one, but it can be hard to make it work. Days off line up a lot - for example a lot of teams sit their starting catcher on Sunday because it's a day game after a night game. Sometimes I use the 2nd catcher in the UT spot, but that usually means my offense isn't very good.

Having 2 catchers from the same team can be great if you can find a pair that are decent, which is hard. Was actually planning to do this with Cervelli/Diaz for the Pirates this year, but Diaz has an awful-sounding illness so I don't think he's worth holding.

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1 hour ago, pushaZ said:

Does anyone else start with two catchers and run them out based on playing time?

 

Like Contreras/Alfaro

 

Or is that a waste of space

In redraft one catcher leagues I do not want two catchers. So No .. Usually they will hurt your stats instead of helping 

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17 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

In redraft one catcher leagues I do not want two catchers. So No .. Usually they will hurt your stats instead of helping 

 

I agree. I barely want to own one catcher with how bad the landscape is every year. In H2H leagues I’ve actually gone entire seasons without a catcher.

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11 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Does anyone else start with two catchers and run them out based on playing time?

 

Like Contreras/Alfaro

 

Or is that a waste of space

 

Its nice in theory but its a pain to manage in addition to wasting a bench spot. Your best bet if you are willing to deal with checking every day and if you have a deep bench is just getting Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes who will both be deeply discounted but on a per AB basis should provide top 8 catcher numbers each.

As far as going 1 catcher, I'm basically always punting and will be monitoring Gomes / Suzuki, because of one of them gets hurt the other becomes a top 10 option immediately.

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On 2/28/2019 at 10:09 AM, Del Rio said:

Anyone have success with closers only strategy in H2H? Or similarly, grabbing one (or two) elite SP and the rest of your pitching spots are closers. In theory, this allows you to win saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, but I haven't seen anyone implementing this strategy have much success with it in my leagues. Ratios are volatile week to week and the closer position itself is inherently volatile.

 

Contrary to what many have posted this strategy actually dominates h2h leagues, so much so that any decent league will quickly pivot to innings pitched minimums or start minimums the following season to rid itself of the tactic. You aren't necessarily looking to win saves each week, you are just looking for a clean inning early in the week so that you can win ratios. You aren't drafting closers early, you might take one - the entire point is to overload your hitting to the point where it cannot be matched.

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1 hour ago, disasterisk said:

 

Contrary to what many have posted this strategy actually dominates h2h leagues, so much so that any decent league will quickly pivot to innings pitched minimums or start minimums the following season to rid itself of the tactic. You aren't necessarily looking to win saves each week, you are just looking for a clean inning early in the week so that you can win ratios. You aren't drafting closers early, you might take one - the entire point is to overload your hitting to the point where it cannot be matched.

 

Well, sure, with no IP minimum, you implement that strategy. I guess I should have specified. I do several Y! Pro Leagues where the IP minimum is 7. That still isn't many innings, but it's enough to where one bad outing from a reliever can potentially bone you in ratios for the rest of the week. And if your offense isn't strong enough to pick up the slack, it results in blowouts. That's been my experience with it the strategy; was moreso looking to see if people had success with it in IP min leagues, but I didn't specify that in my OP.

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I'm just not a fan of the RP method. It takes way too many risks IMO even with small IP limits.

First, you need to collect the right group of RP's and you'll have to expect some terribly blown saves.

Next, your hitting has to be f***ing incredible. That is not easy to do, even with the slight advantage of extra money you spend on it.

Overall, it's just too damn volatile and an adept manager can try to counter it in a few different ways.

I prefer the Stud hitting with a few aces and resorting to streaming approach in those types of leagues as its much less volatile. 

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Auction draft question:

 

If the league settings have 60% of the players in the starting lineup as hitters (14 out of 23) should I allocate 60% of my budget to hitters?

 

 

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