Flyman75

2019 Fantasy Strategy Thread

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1 minute ago, Backdoor Slider said:

My strategy (roto), seemingly forever, has been loading up on bats and piecing together a solid staff of SP2/3s/4s and rotating guys in and out based on matchup. The past two years this seems to not be working. Would love to know if it’s just me and targeting the wrong guys (very possible) or if it’s something others have noticed. 

I kinda feel as if there’s a greater gap between the haves/have nots in starting pitching, making those elite guys more valuable. And it seems like now picking up quality production from hitters is now much easier to do. One thing I’ve noticed is that even worse hitters “add” to the categories, because they’re simply counting stats (HR, SB, RBI, etc.). They only hurt you in batting average. And since the whole league batting average is down, hitters don’t really hurt you. They just produce slightly less. On the other hand, pitchers have more categories that aren’t simply counting stats. ERA, WHIP, K/BB are categories where a guy can blow up and destroy you. Negative pitchers hurt a lot more than hitters. 

I’ve moved from keeping 0 or 1 SP most seasons (out of 8 ) to looking at keeping 2, and possibly 3, next season. Seems more important than ever to have aces. And even though pitchers bust rate is higher than hitters, that includes the late round pitchers I’ve always liked to target (like Wheeler, Matz, Strahm, etc. I targeted this season). I think aces are going to continue to be in higher demand for the foreseeable future, as offense continues to flourish in baseball.

Are others seeing the same things in their leagues? Thoughts about strategy moving forward?

That's my normal strategy. I went away from it a bit this year, because I usually do well (still am) and people won't trade with me, so I wanted to acquire some things I never have that people will never trade me, namely elite base-stealers and elite closers. My team is definitely worse than it is most years. I think your strategy is sound, you just didn't draft as well as usual. I probably didn't either. The best strategy is getting the best players.

You can pick up quality production from hitters. I would argue that you can do the same with starting pitchers.

To your point about counting stats vs. ratios, this is why I always roster 6 relievers (usually 3-4 closers and a couple of elite non-closers, like Pressly). Coupled with a generally decent starting pitching staff, it allows me to stream, win every counting stat every week, and usually put up top third ratios for the season. I truly have no idea why everyone else doesn't employ this strategy, especially since you can get a couple of good closers and those non-closers for nothing, consistently, every single year.

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5 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

My strategy (roto), seemingly forever, has been loading up on bats and piecing together a solid staff of SP2/3s/4s and rotating guys in and out based on matchup. The past two years this seems to not be working. Would love to know if it’s just me and targeting the wrong guys (very possible) or if it’s something others have noticed. 

I kinda feel as if there’s a greater gap between the haves/have nots in starting pitching, making those elite guys more valuable. And it seems like now picking up quality production from hitters is now much easier to do. One thing I’ve noticed is that even worse hitters “add” to the categories, because they’re simply counting stats (HR, SB, RBI, etc.). They only hurt you in batting average. And since the whole league batting average is down, hitters don’t really hurt you. They just produce slightly less. On the other hand, pitchers have more categories that aren’t simply counting stats. ERA, WHIP, K/BB are categories where a guy can blow up and destroy you. Negative pitchers hurt a lot more than hitters. 

I’ve moved from keeping 0 or 1 SP most seasons (out of 8 ) to looking at keeping 2, and possibly 3, next season. Seems more important than ever to have aces. And even though pitchers bust rate is higher than hitters, that includes the late round pitchers I’ve always liked to target (like Wheeler, Matz, Strahm, etc. I targeted this season). I think aces are going to continue to be in higher demand for the foreseeable future, as offense continues to flourish in baseball.

Are others seeing the same things in their leagues? Thoughts about strategy moving forward?

 

I used to be HEAVY on hitters, but after a few years of 2-4th place finishes, I changed my strategy for 2019. This year I targeted a handful of SP's I can't miss, and would even jump their ADP by 1-3 rounds.This year, those guys were Glasnow, Caleb Smith, Matt Boyd, and to some extent, Ryu. It has done me very well, but I put in a ton of time into identifying these guys as undervalued in the offseason.  

 

In my league (keep 6) I think I will be keeping 4 bats and 2 pitchers, or maybe even 5/1. I hope to identify pitchers of the same ilk as I did this year, and draft them in the middle to late rounds once more in 2020.

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For redraft, my strategy is to address the starting pitching problem with quantity instead of quality.  I tend to do the "best player available" thing in the early rounds, so whether I get one  ace, two aces, etc. depends on many factors like draft position, how the early rounds picks from other teams go, etc. but one near certainty is that I'm leaving with multiple pitchers occupying bench slots, and probably one or two occupying RP slots.  I'll spend for a decent RP1, but I don't want anything to do with the middle tier closers, and I don't care if I have to work the wire to fill in with RPs later.  The important thing is having more tickets in the SP raffle, so I fill in as many slots as I can with starters, and worry about adding more bench bats later when I find out which starters aren't panning out.

Similar strategy in dynasty/keepers -- generally if I'm contending, I try to get to a position in the top third of the saves column and dump as many middling to bad closers as I can in the 2nd half of the season, filling in with streaming starters and upside bats that might end up being keepers.  For the next season, there's near zero chance I'm keeping one of the mediocre RPs, but there's a good chance one of those SPs has a good finish and ends up being worth keeping for upside.  (Obviously this mainly matters in deep keeper formats -- I don't like leagues where fewer than 10-15 are kept.)

 

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I’ve done something similar to @miasma16 the last few years but my only league is a keeper league so it’s slightly different. I’ve kept two SP out of 5 total keepers and they’ve been Nola and Snell for the last two years. After those two anchoring my rotation I go mostly upside pitchers and maybe one SP3 but that allows me to just get bats early on. I also usually don’t spend on top tier closers and get two solid middle of the pack guys then roster 3-4 elite middle reliever ratio and k getters. Last year it won me my regular season H2H title and the playoffs. This year Nola and Snell struggled early on digging me a hole but I’ve climbed back up to fourth and am within striking distance of the top 3 regular season spots which payout. 

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

...One thing I’ve noticed is that even worse hitters “add” to the categories, because they’re simply counting stats (HR, SB, RBI, etc.). They only hurt you in batting average. And since the whole league batting average is down, hitters don’t really hurt you. They just produce slightly less. On the other hand, pitchers have more categories that aren’t simply counting stats. ERA, WHIP, K/BB are categories where a guy can blow up and destroy you. Negative pitchers hurt a lot more than hitters...

 

This. It's usually much easier and worthwhile to stream hitting than pitching in roto.

Personally, I've been killing my roto league for a few years now just by drafting more SPs than everyone else. In 10 man roto (redraft) this year I drafted 4 of the first 14 pitchers taken (iow more than twice my share), including Scherzer #1 overall over Trout.

I went back and dug up a post I made a couple years ago during the offseason. Back then it didn't generate much discussion:

Quote

In re: drafting SPs vs. batters risk/reward (roto only)

 

It's true that drafting SPs highly is a little scarier, mostly because of all the different kinds of injury risks they bring along with them compared to batters. But I think overall, SPs make up for that difference in risk and then some because of the significance of their impact on 4 of the 10 roto stats (again, I'm talking roto only)

 

For instance, most roto leagues have a GS and/or innings limit. But batter limits tend to be a little less stringent. And many leagues don't have any at all. So you can't just add/drop to nickel and dime counting stats in pitching the way you can with hitting.

 

But even with limits, streaming hitting is still less risky in traditional 5x5, since there is only one hitting ratio (BA) vs. two pitching ratios (ERA/WHIP) to be negatively impacted.

 

Anyway, let's set aside streaming, which obviously can be limited depending on format.

 

Most leagues have more batter slots than pitcher slots, which combined with a GS limit, increases the impact of any given SP.

 

i.e. standard ESPN has 13 batter slots and only 9 pitcher slots with a 200 GS limit. So over the course of a season, that's about 7 SPs starting about 29 games to get you there (obviously all of these won't come from the draft, I'm just saying 7 SPs/slots, averaged out).

 

So that would make 4 pitching stats being affected by 7 SPs, vs. 5 hitting stats being affected by 13 batters.

 

Basically, the point I'm trying to make is that a -single one- of those 7 SPs for those 4 roto stats is more significant in terms of -overall impact on the standings- when compared to the same impact on the standings of a -single one- of 13 batters on 5 roto stats. I mean yeah, the batter is affecting an extra category. But there are almost twice as many batters, which waters down the significance of any particular one.

 

Now, you've probably noticed that I didn't factor in closers/saves. I'm assuming for the purpose of this analysis that the saves chase ends up having a neutral impact on ratios, Ks, and Ws for each team in any given roto league, which is certainly a significant assumption, but I think a fair one for the purposes of weighing SPs and batters for overall draft value in roto. I certainly wouldn't mind feedback on that or any other part of the analysis though.

 

On the other hand, maybe I'm just trying too hard to explain why I ran away with my roto league this season, when really it's just that I got lucky with SPs rather than my SP focused drafting strategy.

 

tldr: 4 roto stats for one of 7 SPs is more significant overall than 5 roto stats for one of 13 batters.

 

Looking back at this post from today though, the big difference seems to be the advent of "openers." I think if openers become more prevalent/effective as time goes on, wins could become more and more streamable, since you'd be able to stream "primary" pitchers without it counting against your GS limit. I think this would change the above analysis somewhat, depending on the quality of those primary pitchers and the risk to your ERA/WHIP by streaming them.

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17 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

My strategy (roto), seemingly forever, has been loading up on bats and piecing together a solid staff of SP2/3s/4s and rotating guys in and out based on matchup. The past two years this seems to not be working. Would love to know if it’s just me and targeting the wrong guys (very possible) or if it’s something others have noticed. 

I kinda feel as if there’s a greater gap between the haves/have nots in starting pitching, making those elite guys more valuable. And it seems like now picking up quality production from hitters is now much easier to do. One thing I’ve noticed is that even worse hitters “add” to the categories, because they’re simply counting stats (HR, SB, RBI, etc.). They only hurt you in batting average. And since the whole league batting average is down, hitters don’t really hurt you. They just produce slightly less. On the other hand, pitchers have more categories that aren’t simply counting stats. ERA, WHIP, K/BB are categories where a guy can blow up and destroy you. Negative pitchers hurt a lot more than hitters. 

I’ve moved from keeping 0 or 1 SP most seasons (out of 8 ) to looking at keeping 2, and possibly 3, next season. Seems more important than ever to have aces. And even though pitchers bust rate is higher than hitters, that includes the late round pitchers I’ve always liked to target (like Wheeler, Matz, Strahm, etc. I targeted this season). I think aces are going to continue to be in higher demand for the foreseeable future, as offense continues to flourish in baseball.

Are others seeing the same things in their leagues? Thoughts about strategy moving forward?

 

I've used the 2-3 Ace strategy the last 3 years and I have finished 1st the last two years and am in first this year, 12 teamer.  My staff last year and year before consisted of Scherzer, Verlander, DeGrom(replaced Verlander after traded), Morton, Nola(traded for when he sucked). You  most likely can only get all of these guys if you are doing auction and pay a high price for them and hit on some cheap hitters.

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Roto:

I usually always build even as possible (obvious, I know) but this is why for me...

- I'm always able to attack another category if I lose points elsewhere. Also Putting pressure on certain teams in categories and making them make tough choices is important. 

- Injuries can be much less hurtful than relying on (X) and losing that guy

- I will have a commodity or stat someone needs badly usually. So Always Make the other person be the one needing to deal, not you. Get good deals.

- You give yourself very positive potential category gains VS negative. 

Ex. If I'm able to predict or analyze I can make potential gains in 3 cats for 7 points vs only potentially being negative 1 category for 2 points. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, duke of queens said:

I've used the 2-3 Ace strategy the last 3 years and I have finished 1st the last two years and am in first this year, 12 teamer.  My staff last year and year before consisted of Scherzer, Verlander, DeGrom(replaced Verlander after traded), Morton, Nola(traded for when he sucked). You  most likely can only get all of these guys if you are doing auction and pay a high price for them and hit on some cheap hitters.

I have won with this but also play against it alot and see it fail final 2 months

The biggest mistake made is dealing away one of the aces or not able to manage the rest of the staff efficiently. 

Just watch how a few bad starts can be brutal on ratios.

Sp are 3 cat guys IMO when Wins are category.  

 

Edited by zstlj
Jddj

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Fair or foul - Cxckblocking streaming against your team?  Opponent gets up at a** crack of dawn (or works nights) and grabs two best streamers each morning for the next day.  I have a couple roster spots open right now that I could grab the best streamers for the following day ie he grabs Wednesday streamers this morning, I could grab Thursdays best streaming options today and cut them on Wednesday sending them to waiver wire so he couldn't grab them tomorrow morning sorta deal.  I have no intent to pitch them, just keep them from my opponent.  I could do this the rest of the week always being a day ahead and then dropping them to waivers preventing him from getting them. 

Legit strategy right?  All's fair in love, war and fantasy baseball?

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19 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Fair or foul - Cxckblocking streaming against your team?  Opponent gets up at a** crack of dawn (or works nights) and grabs two best streamers each morning for the next day.  I have a couple roster spots open right now that I could grab the best streamers for the following day ie he grabs Wednesday streamers this morning, I could grab Thursdays best streaming options today and cut them on Wednesday sending them to waiver wire so he couldn't grab them tomorrow morning sorta deal.  I have no intent to pitch them, just keep them from my opponent.  I could do this the rest of the week always being a day ahead and then dropping them to waivers preventing him from getting them. 

Legit strategy right?  All's fair in love, war and fantasy baseball?

Fair--lobby your commish for a transaction cap if you want to prevent it next year. 

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2 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Fair or foul - Cxckblocking streaming against your team?  Opponent gets up at a** crack of dawn (or works nights) and grabs two best streamers each morning for the next day.  I have a couple roster spots open right now that I could grab the best streamers for the following day ie he grabs Wednesday streamers this morning, I could grab Thursdays best streaming options today and cut them on Wednesday sending them to waiver wire so he couldn't grab them tomorrow morning sorta deal.  I have no intent to pitch them, just keep them from my opponent.  I could do this the rest of the week always being a day ahead and then dropping them to waivers preventing him from getting them. 

Legit strategy right?  All's fair in love, war and fantasy baseball?

 

It's entirely fair to use your moves any way you want imo. That wouldn't work in standard ESPN leagues though, since you need to hold a guy for a day for him to be put on waivers, otherwise he drops right back to being a free agent.

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2 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Legit strategy right?  All's fair in love, war and fantasy baseball?

Agreed; if there's room in the rules for streaming, I don't know why this wouldn't be okay. It's like outlawing defense. The streamer could always one-up you and get the guys they want two days in advance.
 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Fair or foul - Cxckblocking streaming against your team?  Opponent gets up at a** crack of dawn (or works nights) and grabs two best streamers each morning for the next day.  I have a couple roster spots open right now that I could grab the best streamers for the following day ie he grabs Wednesday streamers this morning, I could grab Thursdays best streaming options today and cut them on Wednesday sending them to waiver wire so he couldn't grab them tomorrow morning sorta deal.  I have no intent to pitch them, just keep them from my opponent.  I could do this the rest of the week always being a day ahead and then dropping them to waivers preventing him from getting them. 

Legit strategy right?  All's fair in love, war and fantasy baseball?

  Check the starting pitchers for the week and find the best guys for the next few days rather than just tommorrow.  Someone blocking streamers is costing themselves a roster spot and possibly stats.  It’s fair imo, and like someone said, if you’re allowed to stream, you should be allowed to block.

i usually get blocked by other streamers (not really blocking) but it fifes me to get creative. I love the challenge,

Edited by Cesare13

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3 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Fair or foul - Cxckblocking streaming against your team?  Opponent gets up at a** crack of dawn (or works nights) and grabs two best streamers each morning for the next day.  I have a couple roster spots open right now that I could grab the best streamers for the following day ie he grabs Wednesday streamers this morning, I could grab Thursdays best streaming options today and cut them on Wednesday sending them to waiver wire so he couldn't grab them tomorrow morning sorta deal.  I have no intent to pitch them, just keep them from my opponent.  I could do this the rest of the week always being a day ahead and then dropping them to waivers preventing him from getting them. 

Legit strategy right?  All's fair in love, war and fantasy baseball?

 

I don't see anything wrong with this. I can see how it could certainly annoy your opponent but hey if it's within the rules you can use your moves however you'd like. Most standard league rules do require you to hold onto a player for at least one full day after acquiring in order for them to be placed on waivers when you drop them. I only really do this if our pitching stats are close at the end of a weekly h2h matchup in an effort to prevent my opponent from getting k's or a win that would give him the edge in those categories. We do have a 100 move limit for the regular season and playoffs combined so if I have the extra moves why not?

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2019 FANTASY THREAD STRATEGY CONCLUSIONS

What strategy conclusions can be made now that the regular season is over?  What worked for you?  What didn’t? I’m more interested in Yahoo! standard, vanilla settings i.e. twelve team 5 x 5 roto and H2H.  I’m returning after a few years of not playing, so I feel like a newb again.

I found that: 1) as someone stated above, you can’t punt on SB’s and expect to win.  2) I had over 300 IP’s remaining at the end, so I’m an idiot if I don’t learn from that.  There were some interesting strategies proposed here, so I’m anxious to hear what worked. 3)  I dropped a player waaaay too early  4)  It seemed like I had unlimited ADDS in the last week.  I know I used over twenty in the last week, most of them to replace SP’s

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Sysiphus said:

2019 FANTASY THREAD STRATEGY CONCLUSIONS

What strategy conclusions can be made now that the regular season is over?  What worked for you?  What didn’t? I’m more interested in Yahoo! standard, vanilla settings i.e. twelve team 5 x 5 roto and H2H.  I’m returning after a few years of not playing, so I feel like a newb again.

I found that: 1) as someone stated above, you can’t punt on SB’s and expect to win.  2) I had over 300 IP’s remaining at the end, so I’m an idiot if I don’t learn from that.  There were some interesting strategies proposed here, so I’m anxious to hear what worked. 3)  I dropped a player waaaay too early  4)  It seemed like I had unlimited ADDS in the last week.  I know I used over twenty in the last week, most of them to replace SP’s

1) make sure to use all your innings and games played.  That’s an absolute must.

2) don’t draft closers early. Instead,  Throw a bunch of crap at the wall early and see what sticks. This has worked without fail for me for 6 years.

3) avoid puzting around with holding the “minor league star” that may or may not come up this year (if it’s non keeper.) if it’s a huge blue chipper, it’s fine, or if there’s a reliable source that says otherwise. 

4) a day in the middle of May counts for just as much as the last day of the season.  This past year was so close that any of 1 less win or 1 less sb would have cost me a lot of money. Don’t get lazy.

5) try to make your team better wherever possible, whenever possible.

6) use a non closing reliever to help your ratios.  That small, free player could move you up a few points.  They’re easily replaceable in an injury run, and more likely to make a difference than a second catcher.

7) if you have a fairly replaceable/non used guy on the roster and a guy gets a sudden callup or a surprise guy gets a save....grab now and ask questions later.  

8 ) everyone on the roster should serve a purpose.

9) use this forum

10) when in doubt, just see who the orioles are playing and adjust accordingly.

Edited by Cesare13
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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

1) make sure to use all your innings and games played.  That’s an absolute must.

 

I did poorly with this in my roto league (5th place), leaving games and innings on the table.  I ran out of games and innings (except for C) in my H2H league, but managed to eek out second place.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

2) don’t draft closers early. Instead,  Throw a bunch of crap at the wall early and see what sticks. This has worked without fail for me for 6 years.

 

I didn’t really do this.  I did a little research for the draft, but not much, so I’ll check the forums for better intel next year.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

3) avoid puzting around with holding the “minor league star” that may or may not come up this year (if it’s non keeper.) if it’s a huge blue chipper, it’s fine, or if there’s a reliable source that says otherwise.

 

I think I did this for Vlad Jr., but only had to hold him for about a week.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

 

4) a day in the middle of May counts for just as much as the last day of the season.  This past year was so close that any of 1 less win or 1 less sb would have cost me a lot of money. Don’t get lazy.

 

I closely attended my teams every day, but that brings us to number five.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

 

5) try to make your team better wherever possible, whenever possible.

 

This is my biggest weakness: knowing when to ditch a player.  I guess I should use the forum to help with my decisions.  I tend to hold on to a player too long, after the damage is done, and when there are fewer alternatives to choose from.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

6) use a non closing reliever to help your ratios.  That small, free player could move you up a few points.  They’re easily replaceable in an injury run, and more likely to make a difference than a second catcher.

 

I need more info about this.  Do I sacrifice a batter to do this?  Do you have an example of players that did this well in ‘19?  How many starting pitchers do you recommend on draft day?  Throughout the season?

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

7) if you have a fairly replaceable/non used guy on the roster and a guy gets a sudden callup or a surprise guy gets a save....grab now and ask questions later.  

 

I did this reasonably well, but only starting near the All Star break.  See number five above.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

8 ) everyone on the roster should serve a purpose.

 

This is good advice.  I picked up Mallex Smith for SB’s, but it backfired.  He was too little, too late and it probably cost me in other categories.

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

9) use this forum

 

Not using this forum is probably my worst sin.

 

3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

10) when in doubt, just see who the orioles are playing and adjust accordingly.

 

Haha!  I figured this out around the middle of September.

Thanks for the advice.

 

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