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Under500Forever

Which Prospect should I draft?

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Our MiLB slow draft is going on now and I pick soon. It’s a 16 team dynasty with 10 max minor leaguers.  More then half of the top 100 are gone so im Looking for a guy that has a shot to move up the rankings this year. 

There are still 3 picks ahead of me 

Current Minor leaguers: AJ Reed ;(  , Albies, Kieboom, Profar, Dahl, Tapia, Buxton, Adell 

These are some of the guys that are available. 

Yusniel Diaz 

Nolan Jones

Gavin Lux

Jon DuPlantier

Nate Pearson

Adonis Medina 

Drew Waters

Travis Swaggerty

Oneill Cruz 

Trevor Larnach

Jarrod Kelenic

Vidal Brujan 

Cavan Biggio 

Brady Singer

Luis Garcia 

Grant Lavigne 

Kevin Smith

Xavier Edwards 

or anyone I haven’t listed that may be towards the back or outside of the top 100. 

 

 

 

Edited by Under500Forever

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Diaz with Puig gone LAD will bring up their prospect to play in the OF this season 

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8 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Diaz with Puig gone LAD will bring up their prospect to play in the OF this season 

 

Diaz was traded to the Orioles in the Machado trade 

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Larnach

Kelenic 

Garcia nats

Edwards

Lux 

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While you lack pitching, I don't think any of those pitchers warrant passing on several of the hitters. Pearson is the best pitching prospect in that group. In my first pass, I narrowed your list to this:

Yusniel Diaz 

Nolan Jones

Gavin Lux

Nate Pearson

Trevor Larnach

Jarrod Kelenic

Vidal Brujan 

Luis Garcia 

Grant Lavigne

Xavier Edwards

I think each of these guys can have different arguments made for them. My personal top 4 (since you have 3 picks between you) are Brujan, Garcia, Larnach, and Lux. Brujan has the best speed, Larnach the best power, Garcia/Lux are similar across the board contributors with Lux being closer with a slightly lower ceiling. If I am picking, I am taking Brujan because of the rarity of speed/hit tool mixes plus I see a little bit of Mookie-esque power (smaller guy with uber quick hands that generates more pop that you expect). He likely won't hit 30, but 15-20 Hrs to go with 30-40+ steals seems plausible.

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In a 5x5 league I think I like Brujan a lot.  Edwards too. Jones, Diaz, Lux, Waters and Lavigne all super intersting too. I'd stay away from the pitchers, but Pearson has the most upside.

 

Gotta drop Reed at this point.

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32 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

In a 5x5 league I think I like Brujan a lot.  Edwards too. Jones, Diaz, Lux, Waters and Lavigne all super intersting too. I'd stay away from the pitchers, but Pearson has the most upside.

 

Gotta drop Reed at this point.

 

I really like Brujan but he was just selected. 

There is one more pick before me.

 

we have a 10 max ML system and after this draft is over I’ll be at 10. If I ever need a spot AJ is the first to go but no need to

drop him If I don’t have to. 

56 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

While you lack pitching, I don't think any of those pitchers warrant passing on several of the hitters. Pearson is the best pitching prospect in that group. In my first pass, I narrowed your list to this:

Yusniel Diaz 

Nolan Jones

Gavin Lux

Nate Pearson

Trevor Larnach

Jarrod Kelenic

Vidal Brujan 

Luis Garcia 

Grant Lavigne

Xavier Edwards

I think each of these guys can have different arguments made for them. My personal top 4 (since you have 3 picks between you) are Brujan, Garcia, Larnach, and Lux. Brujan has the best speed, Larnach the best power, Garcia/Lux are similar across the board contributors with Lux being closer with a slightly lower ceiling. If I am picking, I am taking Brujan because of the rarity of speed/hit tool mixes plus I see a little bit of Mookie-esque power (smaller guy with uber quick hands that generates more pop that you expect). He likely won't hit 30, but 15-20 Hrs to go with 30-40+ steals seems plausible.

 

My starting pitching is decent so I’m not really concerned with drafting any minor league pitchers right now unless there was a no brained choice left. 

I have DeGrom, Sale, Buehler, Mikolas , CMart, Bieber, Toussaint , Rodon 

Edited by Under500Forever

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I'd be happy with adding any of the following, in the order below:

 

1) Garcia (Wsh): Advanced beyond his years...More power to come as he matures.  Will fill the stat sheet nicely in his hay-day.  

2) Larnach: The jewel of last years draft class.  Sweet southpaw swing that generates easy plus power.  Future fantasy stud that performed well at multiple levels during '18 pro debut

3) Lavigne: Power hitting prospect with eyes on Coors is always worth putting on the radar, and you may have a void (or Voit) at 1B.  Friendly offensive environment of the Pioneer League inflated his numbers some, but his wRC+ ranked second among the leagues qualified hitters.    

4) Edwards:  Makes solid contact, has a stellar eye (more walks than strikeouts) and can flat out fly on the base paths.  Not likely to ever hit for much power, but ultimately we can dream on a .290 average, 10-12 home runs and 50 SB in a perfect world.    

5) Diaz:  Solid, but not spectacular skill set.  20 HR upside, an above average BA, and a few stolen bases.  Ranked higher than most due to proximity to the SHOW.  Will contribute this season.  

 

GL with your decision!

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

In a 5x5 league I think I like Brujan a lot.  Edwards too. Jones, Diaz, Lux, Waters and Lavigne all super intersting too. I'd stay away from the pitchers, but Pearson has the most upside.

 

Gotta drop Reed at this point.

 

Do you like Luis Garcia? 

I think I’m between Garcia , Waters , Edwards and Lavigne. 

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10 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

Do you like Luis Garcia? 

I think I’m between Garcia , Waters , Edwards and Lavigne. 

These guys are all within reason to me. Only one I own is Lavigne but Drew Waters seems pretty good. I'm probably low on Garcia, but I could see me being wrong there. Just haven't seen a ton to get excited about. He seems solid, not a superstar.

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53 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

Do you like Luis Garcia? 

I think I’m between Garcia , Waters , Edwards and Lavigne. 

Lavigne looks like he could be Matt stairs like body wise

 

Edwards has 50 sb  speed

Imo kelenic has highest floor of group

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52 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

Do you like Luis Garcia? 

I think I’m between Garcia , Waters , Edwards and Lavigne. 

 

Garcia is okay but likely doesn't project to be a high-ceiling contributor thanks to high GB rates which limit his game power and just above-average speed that he hasn't used effectively on the bases. Contact skills look solid with a 14.9% strikeout rate and average 10.3% swinging-strike rate but that's essentially his only true valuable tool in 5x5 so I'd lean one of the other options.

Drew Waters has been receiving a lot of hype, particularly over the off-season for his power/speed combo. Have seen some 60 hit/60 raw/60 speed scouting reports that have driven a lot of the hype. Did very well at Single-A Rome hitting .303/.353/.513 with 9 HRs and 20 SBs in 365 PAs. Pretty aggressive approach with a 5.8% walk rate along with a 19.7% strikeout rate. Doesn't get to all of his power right now due to a lower lying launch angle that is highlighted by a 51.5% GB rate at Single-A last year. Contact skills look to be about average to me to even a touch below, 11.5% swinging-strike rate is evidence. Essentially, he's extremely tooled up and should he continue to take strides forward, he could be a star.

Edwards receives 70-80 speed grades on scouting reports and knows how to use it as he stole 22 bases in just 45 games in his professional debut last year. Combines plus contact skills (elite 4.7% swinging-strike rate at A- in a league mostly made up of college draftees) with an approach that has led to more walks than strikeouts is rare. I've seen the power get some 40 grades too so he shouldn't be a zero. Might end up in CF but he's going to be an up the middle defender for sure. Game-changing speed is always valuable in 5x5 and he has a good chance to bring that AVG/OBP and be a non-zero HR wise. Upside is a better Mallex Smith.

Lavigne has a chance to be a top 100 prospect soon if he isn't considered one already. Big raw power (65 grade already and likely legit 70 grades are coming as he's still just 19) and he combines that with a plus approach and contact skills which is evidenced by more walks than strikeouts and a 7.8% swinging-strike rate respectively. He needs to learn to elevate more to get to his power but as a Northeast prep bat that didn't see very good competition in New Hampshire HS ball, he really impressed this past season and showed a special set of skills to project upon. Coors Field as his potential future home doesn't hurt either.

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I'd go Garcia first, Pearson second, only because I personally think Pearson has some of the best stuff in the minors.  If he kicks the injury bug he's going to be a big deal with a FB over 103 and a slider clocked at 95.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

These guys are all within reason to me. Only one I own is Lavigne but Drew Waters seems pretty good. I'm probably low on Garcia, but I could see me being wrong there. Just haven't seen a ton to get excited about. He seems solid, not a superstar.

 

1 hour ago, HOOTIE said:

Lavigne looks like he could be Matt stairs like body wise

 

Edwards has 50 sb  speed

Imo kelenic has highest floor of group

 

49 minutes ago, garlando said:

 

Garcia is okay but likely doesn't project to be a high-ceiling contributor thanks to high GB rates which limit his game power and just above-average speed that he hasn't used effectively on the bases. Contact skills look solid with a 14.9% strikeout rate and average 10.3% swinging-strike rate but that's essentially his only true valuable tool in 5x5 so I'd lean one of the other options.

Drew Waters has been receiving a lot of hype, particularly over the off-season for his power/speed combo. Have seen some 60 hit/60 raw/60 speed scouting reports that have driven a lot of the hype. Did very well at Single-A Rome hitting .303/.353/.513 with 9 HRs and 20 SBs in 365 PAs. Pretty aggressive approach with a 5.8% walk rate along with a 19.7% strikeout rate. Doesn't get to all of his power right now due to a lower lying launch angle that is highlighted by a 51.5% GB rate at Single-A last year. Contact skills look to be about average to me to even a touch below, 11.5% swinging-strike rate is evidence. Essentially, he's extremely tooled up and should he continue to take strides forward, he could be a star.

Edwards receives 70-80 speed grades on scouting reports and knows how to use it as he stole 22 bases in just 45 games in his professional debut last year. Combines plus contact skills (elite 4.7% swinging-strike rate at A- in a league mostly made up of college draftees) with an approach that has led to more walks than strikeouts is rare. I've seen the power get some 40 grades too so he shouldn't be a zero. Might end up in CF but he's going to be an up the middle defender for sure. Game-changing speed is always valuable in 5x5 and he has a good chance to bring that AVG/OBP and be a non-zero HR wise. Upside is a better Mallex Smith.

Lavigne has a chance to be a top 100 prospect soon if he isn't considered one already. Big raw power (65 grade already and likely legit 70 grades are coming as he's still just 19) and he combines that with a plus approach and contact skills which is evidenced by more walks than strikeouts and a 7.8% swinging-strike rate respectively. He needs to learn to elevate more to get to his power but as a Northeast prep bat that didn't see very good competition in New Hampshire HS ball, he really impressed this past season and showed a special set of skills to project upon. Coors Field as his potential future home doesn't hurt either.

 

Thanks for the help everyone! I really appreciate the feedback. 

After leaning Drew Waters for a bit I went with Grant Lavigne at the last minute. 

I will be making a new thread for my second round pick due in a few days. 

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