jfazz23

2019 Stolen Base Targets

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We had a thread like last year...and Mallex Smith was brought up which turned out to be a GREAT call   @HighHeat11 -  nice job

 

who are some people you are targeting for stolen bases outside of the first few rounds.  i like mallex smith again and i think tommy pham has great value as he can steal 20 and hit for power as well.

 

another guy i really love is jose peraza.  especially where he is going.  he has 30 sb potential and can hit 15 hrs and 290

 

anymore?

 

 

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While there aren't a ton of guys with 30+ SB upside imo there are quite a few going outside the top 100 fantasypros consensus ADP that should give you at least 20.

 

-Villar going at 102 has the best shot to reach and exceed 30. The only drain he'll have is average since he'll produce moderate HR numbers and should score a good amount of runs in that lineup. 

-Robles going at 105 could give you 20+ with double digits steals and good run scoring ability in that lineup.

-Tim Anderson going at pick 129 should produce 20+ SB and could also get you 15+ HR and decent run scoring. His issue will be average/OBP. 

-Inciarte, one of my favorite draft day values, should get 20 steals and could come owe to leading the NL in runs and he's going at pick 142. I don't really think he hurts you in any category. 

-Ahmed Rosario could get you 20 SB and hit double digits hr while also producing decent runs and he's going at pick 156. His average might be a concern. 

-Broxton can be had at the very end of most drafts at pick 400 and he should produce close to 20 sb and 15ish hr. He hurts in average and won't score many runs though. 

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8 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

While there aren't a ton of guys with 30+ SB upside imo there are quite a few going outside the top 100 fantasypros consensus ADP that should give you at least 20.

 

-Villar going at 102 has the best shot to reach and exceed 30. The only drain he'll have is average since he'll produce moderate HR numbers and should score a good amount of runs in that lineup. 

-Robles going at 105 could give you 20+ with double digits steals and good run scoring ability in that lineup.

-Tim Anderson going at pick 129 should produce 20+ SB and could also get you 15+ HR and decent run scoring. His issue will be average/OBP. 

-Inciarte, one of my favorite draft day values, should get 20 steals and could come owe to leading the NL in runs and he's going at pick 142. I don't really think he hurts you in any category. 

-Ahmed Rosario could get you 20 SB and hit double digits hr while also producing decent runs and he's going at pick 156. His average might be a concern. 

-Broxton can be had at the very end of most drafts at pick 400 and he should produce close to 20 sb and 15ish hr. He hurts in average and won't score many runs though. 

Great list, I don't think Broxton will get enough playing time to produce though.

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12 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

While there aren't a ton of guys with 30+ SB upside imo there are quite a few going outside the top 100 fantasypros consensus ADP that should give you at least 20.

 

-Villar going at 102 has the best shot to reach and exceed 30. The only drain he'll have is average since he'll produce moderate HR numbers and should score a good amount of runs in that lineup. 

-Robles going at 105 could give you 20+ with double digits steals and good run scoring ability in that lineup.

-Tim Anderson going at pick 129 should produce 20+ SB and could also get you 15+ HR and decent run scoring. His issue will be average/OBP. 

-Inciarte, one of my favorite draft day values, should get 20 steals and could come owe to leading the NL in runs and he's going at pick 142. I don't really think he hurts you in any category. 

-Ahmed Rosario could get you 20 SB and hit double digits hr while also producing decent runs and he's going at pick 156. His average might be a concern. 

-Broxton can be had at the very end of most drafts at pick 400 and he should produce close to 20 sb and 15ish hr. He hurts in average and won't score many runs though. 

inciarte stunk in the 2nd half tho (speed wise)

 

23 sb in the first

5 sb in the 2nd half with 6 caught stealing

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18 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

inciarte stunk in the 2nd half tho (speed wise)

 

23 sb in the first

5 sb in the 2nd half with 6 caught stealing

 

I think that was related to him being moved to the bottom of the lineup. After that happened he was often on base with Acuna, Freeman and Markakis coming up. Those were all guys that Snitker trusted to drive in runs and I don't think Inciarte had the green light anymore. This isn't as much of a difference in splits but in the 2nd half last year Albies was also hitting at the bottom of the lineup and he saw his steal attempts drop from 12 before the ASB and just 5 after. I could be wrong but it's my theory and I would not be surprised if Inciarte stays in the leadoff spot all year and outproduces his draft day cost by a lot. I could see a sneaky 100 run, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 30 SB, .275/.340 line this year. 

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For “sleeper” steals

 

Laureano - i think he gets to 20-30 safely, some say he’s capable of 40 but a lot would have to go right.

Rosario - if he picks up where he left off in the 2nd half he’s a shoe in for 30+ this year

Buxton - Yeah yeah I’m still on the wagon.  If he gets full playing time and gets on even at a bad clip he should steal 25+

Robles - As long as he’s hitting he has monster potential for sb(30+ for sure).  I think he’s a great risk/reward value if his redraft ADP is 105 right now

Garrett Hampson - this is probably the best “sleeper” sb pick you can get.  Obviously it all depends on his playing time, but I see him as their 2B to start the year and may transition to CF if Rodgers starts hot.  He has 40 sb potential if he is playing full time.  Amazing Obp guy who should be their leadoff hitter sooner rather than later

 

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Off the radar guys.  Need PT and/or a green light 

 

roman quinn

corey spangenberg

greg allen

ketel marte

willy adames

teoscar hernandez

Wilmer difo

 

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This will be an important thread this year with big scarcity in SB this season. Here's some non-obvious guys I'll be considering:

- Jake Bauers can provide 10-15 SB at 1B

- Harrison Bader given PT can crack 20 SB

- Amed Rosario looks likely to improve his SB totals on last year, he really picked it up late.

- Given health, Wil Myers should be good for 20+ SB at 3B

- If Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever falls into playing time he can contribute 5-10 SB from C

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

This will be an important thread this year with big scarcity in SB this season. Here's some non-obvious guys I'll be considering:

- Jake Bauers can provide 10-15 SB at 1B

- Harrison Bader given PT can crack 20 SB

- Amed Rosario looks likely to improve his SB totals on last year, he really picked it up late.

- Given health, Wil Myers should be good for 20+ SB at 3B

- If Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever falls into playing time he can contribute 5-10 SB from C

 

Like this list, I think a great way to approach steals currently is to get just 1 big steal threat(a clear 30+ guy) and target a lot of players that can contribute 10-15 along with good all around numbers.  Along with your list there a few more:

 

Aaron Hicks - if he plays in 150+ games 15 sb should be very possible

McCutchen

Brantley

Odor

Profar

 

Some more guys who could contribute 20+ easily

 

Moncada

Margot

 

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Adalberto Mondesi and Tim Anderson are two sneaky players I expect to have good sb numbers.

 

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9 minutes ago, Known2bg said:

Adalberto Mondesi and Tim Anderson are two sneaky players I expect to have good sb numbers.

 

 

Mondesi isn't that sneaky, his ADP is rising fast. He's already in 5th-6th round territory.

 

 

I do like Bader as a later round SB target, I think he breaks out for 25+ SB with a full season of ABs.

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One more for all of you...Cedric Mullins.  Had a great success rate in the minors, but struggled a bit in the majors last year going just 2/5 on sb attempts.  He has the speed to go 20+ thought and can add some value with 10-15 hr potential and a decent obp as well.

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If you're going the SAGNoF method, keep an eye on Wilmer Difo, if the bat comes around enough he's got wheels. He already walks a good clip just need that bat to develop. He'll be on most waiver wires to start the year.

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2 hours ago, StevieStats said:

If you're going the SAGNoF method,

 

What is SAGNOF?  Ive seen that on Razzball and could never figure out what it was

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59 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

What is SAGNOF?  Ive seen that on Razzball and could never figure out what it was

 

Saves/Steals Ain't Got No Face

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Does Rajai Davis still play baseball? 

 

He's on a minor league contract with the Mets. He's probably their OF7-8 :lol:

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7 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He's on a minor league contract with the Mets. He's probably their OF7-8 :lol:

 

Over under for steals is still 30

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11 hours ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

What is SAGNOF?  Ive seen that on Razzball and could never figure out what it was

Like @aifan27 said, Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face... what that means is you draft your team without investing in steals or saves, either drafting those specialty players late or pick them off the wire. The thought process is many owners will inefficiently overpay for players who only contribute to a single category and you can build a stronger team without reaching for them -- instead you hawk the wire closely and and stream players for those roles as the season goes, every tear there's closer turnover and speedsters on the wire coming up.

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2 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Like @aifan27 said, Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face... what that means is you draft your team without investing in steals or saves, either drafting those specialty players late or pick them off the wire. The thought process is many owners will inefficiently overpay for players who only contribute to a single category and you can build a stronger team without reaching for them -- instead you hawk the wire closely and and stream players for those roles as the season goes, every tear there's closer turnover and speedsters on the wire coming up.

 

Should be interesting this year, the landscape is certainly changing in regards to saves, it may be warranted to overpay because there will be so many committees. With SB, there's just a sever lack of speed at top and bottom.

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Feel like we can't have a discussion regarding SB without including Billy Hamilton. I know, there's a million warts, BUT there's next to no competition for playing time and the Royals are going to need him to run because that lineup can't do much else. 

 

His ADP is currently 143 on fantasypros, and he has upside for 60+ if the average can even be semi respectable. Plus, no pitcher to hit behind him in the AL like he had with the Reds. 

 

There's a lot of things to dislike about his game, but this year might be the best time to invest. 

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On 2/16/2019 at 8:27 AM, adifazio27 said:

Feel like we can't have a discussion regarding SB without including Billy Hamilton. I know, there's a million warts, BUT there's next to no competition for playing time and the Royals are going to need him to run because that lineup can't do much else. 

 

His ADP is currently 143 on fantasypros, and he has upside for 60+ if the average can even be semi respectable. Plus, no pitcher to hit behind him in the AL like he had with the Reds. 

 

There's a lot of things to dislike about his game, but this year might be the best time to invest. 

 

That's a huge if regarding average as its something he's shown he's not capable of. And I would think he's basically guaranteed to bat 9th in the AL.

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