Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Draft Day Targets (Reaches)

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Curious to see who you all are gunning for on draft day. Everyone has at least one or two guys they're really hoping to land regardless of their ADP. Who are you guys willing to reach for in order to get them on your squad?

 

Personally I plan on reaching for:

Aaron Judge (anything after pick 3 - Trout, Betts, Ramirez being top 3)

Walker Beuhler - I wont let this guy be any more than the 5th SP off the board. 

Josh James - Too much upside to be left on the draft pool after the first 30 pitchers are off the board. 

 

Edited by Dirty Little Birdie
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This can probably be scratched if he signs in SF or SD, but Bryce in Philly has enormous upside to me. I can easily see myself taking him at any point after Trout, Betts, Acuna, JoRam.

 

Another I've gone all in on is Jonathan Villar. @taobball did some great writeups on him over in Villar's thread that I would highly recommend reading. 

 

Mazara is another that I overdraft every season and will continue to do so this season. The monster year is coming, eventually.

 

Darvish has big time bounceback potential, and I doubt that I'll let him fall as far as he has been in any of my drafts. 

 

Lastly, I'm a big Mallex Smith guy. With speed hard to find, he's one of my favorite guys to target that won't nuke other stats. 

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Love this topic. 

I'm having a hard time this year nailing it down.

I like players like Votto, Suarez, Chapman, Mondessi (although getting harder to reach for him), Puig, Pham, Hicks, and others. Love hearing what you guys are doing based on ADP reaches. 

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13 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Love this topic. 

I'm having a hard time this year nailing it down.

I like players like Votto, Suarez, Chapman, Mondessi (although getting harder to reach for him), Puig, Pham, Hicks, and others. Love hearing what you guys are doing based on ADP reaches. 

 

Puig is a really good one. Totally forgot about him, and he should be able to do some damage now that he's away from the Dodgers. 

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53 minutes ago, adifazio27 said:

This can probably be scratched if he signs in SF or SD, but Bryce in Philly has enormous upside to me. I can easily see myself taking him at any point after Trout, Betts, Acuna, JoRam.

 

Another I've gone all in on is Jonathan Villar. @taobball did some great writeups on him over in Villar's thread that I would highly recommend reading. 

 

Mazara is another that I overdraft every season and will continue to do so this season. The monster year is coming, eventually.

 

Darvish has big time bounceback potential, and I doubt that I'll let him fall as far as he has been in any of my drafts. 

 

Lastly, I'm a big Mallex Smith guy. With speed hard to find, he's one of my favorite guys to target that won't nuke other stats. 

Love the Mallex Smith tout. Dude hit .311 and swiped 24 bags in the second half last year. Far better than Dee Gordon's numbers who seems to be going around 20 picks earlier than him. Position eligibility aside I'm taking Smith 100% of the time before I take someone like Dee. I really think he can be the type of guy who you see on a high percentage of winning fantasy teams this year. 

Edited by Dirty Little Birdie
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Its Buehler for me, in mocks and such where its a snake draft and not an auction I can see taking him where I need to, which is likely somewhere in the 3rd round and who knows he could be gone.  Ive pretty much been saying since early mocks that I felt like he was a P1, I know there was some surprise when I took him in the 4th round of Mock 1, but at that time I thought he was a SP1 in a 12-team league, basically around the 9-10 spot for me.  

 

Looking at the draft results from LABR mixed the other night, he was the 10th pitcher off the board, went early 3rd.   My one real snake draft I pick early so will have to get him on 2-3 turn area which I intend to do.  

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for the first time in years, my roster is stacked, locked and loaded so there really isn't anyone i have in mind to reach for.

 

with that said, I'm going to be looking to dish sanchez in the draft and pick up jensen if the price right.  will be aiming to do the same with albies to pick up hampson.

 

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Gallo is someone I’d take in the 60s instead of 90s

chapman + Olson could both go at least a round earlier

If you’re gonna wait on SS’s reach for Tim Anderson around pick 100

McCutchen is going around 150 while Hicks is around 110, I’d take McCutchen closer to where Hicks is and Hicks a round earlier than he is now

Schwarber at 180 is great value, he’s someone I envision getting better and better as he goes

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I think this question all depends on the interpretation of "target." Buehler, Flaherty, Realmuto (now that he's in Philly) are pretty obvious players who should continue their upward trend, and guys who will be gone in the first 7-9 rounds. If I am looking at late-round targets, guys who I think could provide value in the latter part of the draft, I'd take a look at Colin McHugh, assuming he is added to the rotation. He could be a late-round steal. Seems Garrett Hampson is pretty popular now, so you may actually have to overdraft to nab him for the steals. One guy I am keeping tabs on is Reynaldo Lopez for the White Sox as a late-round guy. Young pitcher who throws hard and brings four pitches, including a developing slider. I am not going to predict 20 wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if he delivered 15 wins and an increased strikeout rate. If that's something you can land in the 18th round and beyond, you've done pretty good. Nick Pivetta also is a guy being tabbed as "sleeper" by every publication. His numbers have improved in each of the last two years. Philly's lineup has improved around him, no worries about Hoskins in the OF, where he was a dancing bear, so the defense should be better, too. And don't forget about Kikuchi in Seattle. Depending on your league, he may be off the radar of many owners.

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I think aggressive Victor Robles drafters will look conservative at years end. I don't think he's as far away as folks think, from being an absolute fantasy beast. I felt similarly about Moncada and Devers last year, so I am exercising caution, but Robles' combination of approach / blazing speed / fantastic defense should secure him playing time, steals, and steal opportunities. I think he finishes with something like .277/.338/.446 with 13 jacks and 33 swipes... and upside for plenty more. 

I also think we are yet to see the best of Hyun-Jin Ryu... he has a superb understanding of how to pitch, and I think he is hungry and getting slept on. 

In deepish leagues I like Keston Hiura as a speculative draft pick. The Brewers aren't exactly a greenhouse of talent up the middle, and Hiura is more than ready to mash Big League pitching. I have this funny inkling that Brewers management will take note of the Vladdy Jr. news and declare - somewhat as a statement - "we promote our players when they are ready", and name Hiura the starting second baseman. Not sure if history supports that the Brewers promote aggressively. 

My #1 target might be Josh Donaldson. I predict he shows up motivated and in killer shape, and has a vintage "3rd round worthy" season with loads of power in slick lineup. It's a risky pick... but I don't think he is done mashing yet, and could provide 35 HR 100RBI. He is going around pick 95, roughly 20 spots after Andujar, 15 spots after Castellanos, and 30 spots after Matt Carpenter. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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1 hour ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I think aggressive Victor Robles drafters will look conservative at years end. I don't think he's as far away as folks think, from being an absolute fantasy beast. I felt similarly about Moncada and Devers last year, so I am exercising caution, but Robles' combination of approach / blazing speed / fantastic defense should secure him playing time, steals, and steal opportunities. I think he finishes with something like .277/.338/.446 with 13 jacks and 33 swipes... and upside for plenty more. 

I also think we are yet to see the best of Hyun-Jin Ryu... he has a superb understanding of how to pitch, and I think he is hungry and getting slept on. 

In deepish leagues I like Keston Hiura as a speculative draft pick. The Brewers aren't exactly a greenhouse of talent up the middle, and Hiura is more than ready to mash Big League pitching. I have this funny inkling that Brewers management will take note of the Vladdy Jr. news and declare - somewhat as a statement - "we promote our players when they are ready", and name Hiura the starting second baseman. Not sure if history supports that the Brewers promote aggressively. 

My #1 target might be Josh Donaldson. I predict he shows up motivated and in killer shape, and has a vintage "3rd round worthy" season with loads of power in slick lineup. It's a risky pick... but I don't think he is done mashing yet, and could provide 35 HR 100RBI. He is going around pick 95, roughly 20 spots after Andujar, 15 spots after Castellanos, and 30 spots after Matt Carpenter. 

 

I agree with Robles. He's basically already Starling Marte with fewer HRs that you could get 60 picks later. 

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Some of my favorite draft day targets are already getting pretty chalky and will probably only get more so as draft day nears, but here's Meh's Favorite Draft Day Targets:

Yasiel Puig: health permitting, he's got all of the ingredients for a monster year ahead

Daniel Murphy: signs of aging with injuries and exit velo declines, but the move to Coors hitting 2nd between Blackmon & Arenado? Sign me up?

Zack Wheeler: improved Mets team, great home park, 2nd best weak contact % last year in all of baseball, improvements in command.

Luis Castillo: I was on him last year but the 1st half was a disaster. I'm still buying that there's potential for a top 10 fantasy starter here. Did you hear he's got a new pitching coach?!

Byron Buxton: a pissed off, highly motivated, wants to prove everyone wrong, uber-talented athlete in the BSOML? He's still going late enough that if I'm wrong, it won't hurt me.

Pedro Strop: I follow the invest as little as possible in closers on draft day as your league context allows so guys like him are my favorites. I have no faith in Morrow getting or staying healthy.

Anibal Sanchez: wrote some things about him in 2019 Sleepers thread. He's reinvented himself rather impressively. Nats took notice too as guys like him aren't sniffing contracts anything close to the one he signed.

Matt Strahm: San Diego needs to give this kid a shot in the rotation. 

Joey Lucchesi; another SD hurler I'm high on. Razzball has some nice write-ups on him.

Ryan Braun: I like him in daily leagues more than weekly leagues but I don't think he's toast yet. And apparently he's remaking his swing, FWIW.

Asdrubal Cabrera: very unsexy pick here but I'm getting him in the early 300's. Multi-positional eligibily and home games in Arlington!

Michael Conforto: With his shoulder another year removed from surgery, I think we could see a .270, 30hr, 100rbi season incoming

Paul DeJong: great source for hr's and rbi's later in drafts, especially if he's hitting 3rd behind Carp and Goldy

Randal Grichuk: love this guy if you're mid-way through your draft and think you didn't draft enough hr's. He made some strides in his k rate last year and actually hit .280 with 14 hr's after the ASB. 

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54 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Some of my favorite draft day targets are already getting pretty chalky and will probably only get more so as draft day nears, but here's Meh's Favorite Draft Day Targets:

Yasiel Puig: health permitting, he's got all of the ingredients for a monster year ahead

Zack Wheeler: improved Mets team, great home park, 2nd best weak contact % last year in all of baseball, improvements in command.

Luis Castillo: I was on him last year but the 1st half was a disaster. I'm still buying that there's potential for a top 10 fantasy starter here. Did you hear he's got a new pitching coach?!

Pedro Strop: I follow the invest as little as possible in closers on draft day as your league context allows so guys like him are my favorites. I have no faith in Morrow getting or staying healthy.

Anibal Sanchez: wrote some things about him in 2019 Sleepers thread. He's reinvented himself rather impressively. Nats took notice too as guys like him aren't sniffing contracts anything close to the one he signed.

Ryan Braun: I like him in daily leagues more than weekly leagues but I don't think he's toast yet. And apparently he's remaking his swing, FWIW.

Michael Conforto: With his shoulder another year removed from surgery, I think we could see a .270, 30hr, 100rbi season incoming

Paul DeJong: great source for hr's and rbi's later in drafts, especially if he's hitting 3rd behind Carp and Goldy

 

 

 

Agree on these guys. I think Puig is in for a big year too. Dejong is in a sweet spot in the lineup. Braun has Keon and Domingo gone, so less fight for playing time.

 

Others to add:

 

Miles Mikolas - really found himself overseas, I think he Ks more this year with similar ratios to last season.

Harrison Bader - I think he has a chance to go something like 15-20HR/25+SB with a full season of ABs under Shildt. I think Shildt will let him run more than Matheny did.

Alex Reyes - If he is in the rotation or the closer, he is a bargain where he is currently going.

Sonny Gray - I like him getting out of New York, his road splits were good, the Bronx just got to him.

Kyle Freeland - think he builds on last season, great value at his current ranking.

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I think it all depends on your league format. In my 6x6 league that rewards on base and slugging percentage, I intend to target players like Joey Votto, Gallo, Santana etc. because these guys take a ton of walks. What I'm less clear about is evaluating pitchers like Scherzer and Sale. In my league, pitchers can only contribute in four of the six categories whereas in standard roto, they contribute in four of five. I initially thought of lowering the values of all my pitchers, but if the pitcher's probable replacement is also weaker, does a pitchers value in general go up, down or stay the same?

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My all reach team:

 

C - Sanchez

1b - Olson

2b - Villar

3b - Matt Chapman

SS - Trea Turner

OF - Hoskins

OF - Puig

OF - Conforto

 

SP - Bauer, Taillon, CarMart, Jimmy Nelson

RP - LeClerc

RP - Hand

Edited by ktierne3
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I like reaching on a guy like Reynaldo Lopez, AL Central is going to be a wasteland again.  Tigers are putrid, Royals are putrid, Twins should be alright, Indians lineup outside of the big 2 doesn’t seem overly impressive.  Lopez had a sub 4 ERA in his first go around in the AL.  His slider really developed well under his first year with Don Cooper.  Legit 4 pitch mix with a 95-96 MPH fastball, nice slider and developing curve and change.  If he can ever harness his drop off the table change there could be a big breakout here. Sabermetics don’t like that low BABIP but the team should be much improved and even more so if they get Machado.  He won’t win 7 games again.  He’s going at 244, there’s at least 10-15 names I’m taking him over easily.

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18 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Re: Mallex Smith

He's moving from a dome with field turf to open/retractable roof with grass....

fQ3eoee.png

Good points.  Doubt he touches .300+ again, but this Mariners team will be awful so he’ll probsbly run at will.  The SB totals should be same or better this year I would imagine.

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8 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I think aggressive Victor Robles drafters will look conservative at years end. I don't think he's as far away as folks think, from being an absolute fantasy beast. I felt similarly about Moncada and Devers last year, so I am exercising caution, but Robles' combination of approach / blazing speed / fantastic defense should secure him playing time, steals, and steal opportunities. I think he finishes with something like .277/.338/.446 with 13 jacks and 33 swipes... and upside for plenty more. 

I also think we are yet to see the best of Hyun-Jin Ryu... he has a superb understanding of how to pitch, and I think he is hungry and getting slept on. 

In deepish leagues I like Keston Hiura as a speculative draft pick. The Brewers aren't exactly a greenhouse of talent up the middle, and Hiura is more than ready to mash Big League pitching. I have this funny inkling that Brewers management will take note of the Vladdy Jr. news and declare - somewhat as a statement - "we promote our players when they are ready", and name Hiura the starting second baseman. Not sure if history supports that the Brewers promote aggressively. 

My #1 target might be Josh Donaldson. I predict he shows up motivated and in killer shape, and has a vintage "3rd round worthy" season with loads of power in slick lineup. It's a risky pick... but I don't think he is done mashing yet, and could provide 35 HR 100RBI. He is going around pick 95, roughly 20 spots after Andujar, 15 spots after Castellanos, and 30 spots after Matt Carpenter. 

Donaldson is going before anduar in every yahoo mock for what its worth and he is/will be a top 75 pick. could see him going close to top 60 (don't see much difference between Donaldson and seager, ozuna, suarez, j up)

 

in on all doyer sp maeda, ryu, urias whoever gets a rotation spot

I like yoan and robles as well this year 

 

Edited by colepenhagen

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4 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I like reaching on a guy like Reynaldo Lopez, AL Central is going to be a wasteland again.  Tigers are putrid, Royals are putrid, Twins should be alright, Indians lineup outside of the big 2 doesn’t seem overly impressive.  Lopez had a sub 4 ERA in his first go around in the AL.  His slider really developed well under his first year with Don Cooper.  Legit 4 pitch mix with a 95-96 MPH fastball, nice slider and developing curve and change.  If he can ever harness his drop off the table change there could be a big breakout here. Sabermetics don’t like that low BABIP but the team should be much improved and even more so if they get Machado.  He won’t win 7 games again.  He’s going at 244, there’s at least 10-15 names I’m taking him over easily.

 

Seeing a lot of touts on this guy. I get he’s still young and developing but would like to know what about him makes him a good reach. Had a 4.65 FIP last year. Steamer is projecting a 5 ERA. Nothing in his minor league numbers screams anything special. Not saying he won’t break out but would like to know what people are seeing in this guy. 

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38 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Seeing a lot of touts on this guy. I get he’s still young and developing but would like to know what about him makes him a good reach. Had a 4.65 FIP last year. Steamer is projecting a 5 ERA. Nothing in his minor league numbers screams anything special. Not saying he won’t break out but would like to know what people are seeing in this guy. 

The classic eye test vs sabermetrics test.  Man vs machine.  It’s pretty rare finding young arms who throw 4 pitches at this point.  His first half and second half were identical, 3.91 era in both halves.  Already tossed nearly 200IP, no restrictions, full arsenal, improved team with a few giveaway spots offensively with defensive wizards.  Bad division.  I just don’t see any massive spike in era when he’ll get a ton of starts against horrific divisional rival clubs.

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My all reach team

C - contreras

1b - abreu

2b/ss - villar/peraza....maybe correa

3b - devers ?

OF - dahl,winker,inciarte

Sp- castillo,ray,darvish,gausman

Rp- hicks alvarado

 

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