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Miles Mikolas 2019 Outlook

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Hard to determine if he's just a tad off from being in the range of last years excellent season, or going to have quite a drop off in 2019. He's not walking many which is a good sign, maybe he's a bit off in other areas he can improve on. 

Anyone see him pitch or any metrics guys have some insight on why he's struggling ?

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The problem with him is that he doesn’t strike people out. So he’s got less of s margin for error, IMO. Unless he turns it around in another 2-3 starts he’s droppable for me. 

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2 hours ago, professorbaseball said:

Just picked him up, was dropped in a 12 teamer QS league H2H. Think he will regain form?

 

 

My guess is yes....A SP with many years under his belt, albeit in another country, who comes back to pitch with an ERA under 3 and pinpoint accuracy typically should not fall off the map.....of course, without the Ks , he already came into the season with a limited ceiling, yet the rest of the numbers should start moving back towards last years numbers.

 

For now, I would bench until he starts showing that control again....last year he finished with k/bb of 146/29....this year he is at 19/8...definitively see some positive regression to the mean coming...I could be wrong but feels like he will turn it around.

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I assume he's a sit tonight right? There's no way this ends well for him. 

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I tried to catch him throw a few innings tonight but missed out. I was listening, the radio guys said he looked good, hit 97 a few times. 

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11 hours ago, rrrich46 said:

I tried to catch him throw a few innings tonight but missed out. I was listening, the radio guys said he looked good, hit 97 a few times. 

Indeed he did (hit 97)...I am new to following/charting him, and did not realize he was capable of this sort of velo?

Here's a look at the stuff last night:

FB- sat 94.5 MPH, very nice vertical action to the offering, threw 26 at well over 80% strike rate and over 60% swing rate with 3 whiffs

SI- sinker sat 94 MPH as well with great vertical break to it, threw 26--16 strikes with 12 swings and a whiff

CU- main secondary, averaged 79 MPH, super horizontal movement, threw 26--16 strikes with 12 swings and 4 whiffs, looks like a great pitch

SL- very firm at 88+ MPH, very solid action both dive and dart to it, threw 19--12 strikes with 4 swings and 1 whiff, this offering is key--hitters just don't pick it up

CH- also a bit firm at 88, solid actions vertically but only tossed 3--all strikes

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Coming to the early conclusion that St Louis plays much better at home than on the road. Check this out, they are 13-4 at home vs 8-10 on the road. (Philly kind of the same, 14-7 vs 5-8). Will keep this in the memory banks for now.

Mikolas is still inducing soft contact at a slightly above league average clip of 19.6% and limiting the hard contact to only 30.7%, a good bit above the league average of 37.2.

Regarding his home/road splits, he had a good game vs WAS on the road and a meh game vs CIN at home, but it looks like his beast mode really emerges at home off early numbers (.589 home OPS vs .902 road OPS, 4 starts for each). He was much better last season at home too in 16 starts for each: 2.17 era vs 3.53 era, 6 HR allowed vs 10, .581 home OPS vs .677 road OPS.

Buy low window probably closed for now, but a savvy owner might be able to acquire him for cheap after his next meh start.

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With the erratic pitching everywhere, I think he's a plug and play SP ROS.  Healthy, experienced, going to get innings and win chances. Sure not an ace, but low risk compared to many options out there.

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29 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

With the erratic pitching everywhere, I think he's a plug and play SP ROS.  Healthy, experienced, going to get innings and win chances. Sure not an ace, but low risk compared to many options out there.

 

I can’t believe people are benching him. 

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Tough matchup @Tex next Friday. Are people confident that he’s worked out his early season woes and starting him?

 

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Cardinals have broken yet another SP.  This organization is just brutal on arms. 

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43 minutes ago, professorbaseball said:

Worst SP line of 2019? lol

 

remember when Mark Melancon about 5+ years ago gave up 7 earned runs or more pitching 0.1 innings. that was bad.

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42 minutes ago, professorbaseball said:

Worst SP line of 2019? lol

I think matz was down 8-0 without recording an out.

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I wouldn't start any pitcher in Texas.  Maybe even not Cole.  

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On 5/17/2019 at 9:05 PM, treat88 said:

Cardinals have broken yet another SP.  This organization is just brutal on arms. 

What?!?! Miles was in Japan before STL, but regardless

The Cardinals are absolutely a machine at developing and drafting pitchers. They are also an elite organization and I honestly cant believe you think that it's some butcher shop on arms. I think STL has been under .500 like one time in 15 years. That's alot of October,  more innings , less off season....( actual valid point..wacha)

Pitchers are by far the most volatile to Injuries especially throwing hard and sliders all day.  Nobody has 5 man rotation all year

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5 hours ago, zstlj said:

What?!?! Miles was in Japan before STL, but regardless

The Cardinals are absolutely a machine at developing and drafting pitchers. They are also an elite organization and I honestly cant believe you think that it's some butcher shop on arms. I think STL has been under .500 like one time in 15 years. That's alot of October,  more innings , less off season....( actual valid point..wacha)

Pitchers are by far the most volatile to Injuries especially throwing hard and sliders all day.  Nobody has 5 man rotation all year

 

The fact Mikolas was in Japan, comes to STL for a year, Maddux tweaks his mechanics and hes all of a sudden having worse results isn't a great supporting argument for the organization.

Martinez, Weaver, Reyes, Mikolas, Wacha, previously Waino/Lynn...I don't know man.

They are my team also, and I agree they are an elite, successful franchise great at discovering arms, but they have had a poor track record keeping those arms healthy.

The way they have asked each of those guys to change their mechanics sure seems to result in short term gains with quick shoulder and arm issues to follow.  I see them adjusting their guys natural throwing movements moreso than any other team and I don't think it helps their guys stay healthy.

It will be interesting to see if Mikolas, who last year had some of the best throwing mechanics of any pitcher not named Verlander, stays healthy this year.  You can see they are asking him to open up his front shoulder more and its affecting his timing.  More external rotation at foot plant as well.  I don't like the combination of stresses that puts on the arm.

Don't get me wrong, Im not a pitching guru or anything, just a fan of the team that is tired of seeing these promising arms screwed with and damaged.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, treat88 said:

 

The fact Mikolas was in Japan, comes to STL for a year, Maddux tweaks his mechanics and hes all of a sudden having worse results isn't a great supporting argument for the organization.

Martinez, Weaver, Reyes, Mikolas, Wacha, previously Waino/Lynn...I don't know man.

They are my team also, and I agree they are an elite, successful franchise great at discovering arms, but they have had a poor track record keeping those arms healthy.

The way they have asked each of those guys to change their mechanics sure seems to result in short term gains with quick shoulder and arm issues to follow.  I see them adjusting their guys natural throwing movements moreso than any other team and I don't think it helps their guys stay healthy.

It will be interesting to see if Mikolas, who last year had some of the best throwing mechanics of any pitcher not named Verlander, stays healthy this year.  You can see they are asking him to open up his front shoulder more and its affecting his timing.  More external rotation at foot plant as well.  I don't like the combination of stresses that puts on the arm.

Don't get me wrong, Im not a pitching guru or anything, just a fan of the team that is tired of seeing these promising arms screwed with and damaged.

If this is true (And I have no reason to doubt you) then this would be very concerning. Its timing issues like these that have lead to elbow and Shoulder issues in pitchers (See the inverted W).

Its hard to believe the Cardinals(Or any MLB team) dont know this so maybe theres more to it .

 

Edited by RoadApple

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Can we lay Luke Weavers at the Cards feet now as well? 

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Anyone running this trash can out there tonight?

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