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Max Kepler 2019 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, MathieuVirtuoso said:

I have no clue what to make of Kepler. Some weeks he looks like a stud, some weeks he pops up seemingly 3 times per game. 

That crash into the wall was pretty dumb considering the score of the game. 

Yea... I was just thinking this. I dropped him in two leagues and don’t really regret it. I think he’s a solid player, but there is just better out there.

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14 hours ago, MathieuVirtuoso said:

I have no clue what to make of Kepler. Some weeks he looks like a stud, some weeks he pops up seemingly 3 times per game. 

That crash into the wall was pretty dumb considering the score of the game. 

 

It feels like he's just one minor adjustment away from jumping up a level. 10% BB 14% K almost .500 slugging. On paper you would think he's a star. Dude can put the bat on the ball, but he just doesn't hit it hard often enough. 17% popup rate, about the same as his LD rate, unreal.

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Up 16-3 and crashing into walls.   I getting playing hard no matter the score and I can appreciate that but gotta protect your body.

 

Hate criticizing others but bums me out that it hurts my fantasy teams.

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It wasn't like he was even close to the ball and he kinda looked like he wanted to jump for it but he was still running when he hit the wall. Like he didn't know there was a wall there.

Anyway, he's back as a DH. Didn't look that bad and apparently it ain't that bad.

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13 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

It wasn't like he was even close to the ball and he kinda looked like he wanted to jump for it but he was still running when he hit the wall. Like he didn't know there was a wall there.

Anyway, he's back as a DH. Didn't look that bad and apparently it ain't that bad.

 

Thank God!  Lucky he didn't get a concussion.

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Can anybody shed some light into whether the advanced metrics point to this breakout being real?

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Can anybody shed some light into whether the advanced metrics point to this breakout being real?

 

I don’t see anything that screams fluke by any means.  He has made a big jump in avg exit velo this year and the biggest factor I can see is that he is being much much more aggressive and swinging at strikes way more often.  Last year he was at 64.8% z-swing and this year he’s up to 75.2%.  And his 1st pitch swing is at 41.9% compared to 26.8%.  Along with that his pull % is at a career high of 54.7% after being at 41.9% last year.

 

His contact %’s are all steady and his new aggressiveness has led to a huge increase in exit velo, from 89.5% to 91.2%, which is most likely due to the increase in pull%.

 

He still pops up way too much, and that should keep his avg down, but he’s at .269 for xba and his xwoba is a solid .349.

 

This is the breakout many have expected for the last 2 years now and I think it’s very real.  He probably won’t be a great avg guy, but he takes enough walks to be solid in Obp and the power is just gonna keep growing.  I’ve posted in this thread quite a bit and can’t remember my predictions but an end of year line of .265/.335/.475 100r, 30hr,90 rbi seems extremely doable batting at the top of that lineup.  Gotta remember he’s still only 26, and has improved every year so no reason to think he won’t stop improving now.

Edited by BackyardBaseball
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27 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

I don’t see anything that screams fluke by any means.  He has made a big jump in avg exit velo this year and the biggest factor I can see is that he is being much much more aggressive and swinging at strikes way more often.  Last year he was at 64.8% z-swing and this year he’s up to 75.2%.  And his 1st pitch swing is at 41.9% compared to 26.8%.  Along with that his pull % is at a career high of 54.7% after being at 41.9% last year.

 

His contact %’s are all steady and his new aggressiveness has led to a huge increase in exit velo, from 89.5% to 91.2%, which is most likely due to the increase in pull%.

 

He still pops up way too much, and that should keep his avg down, but he’s at .269 for xba and his xwoba is a solid .349.

 

This is the breakout many have expected for the last 2 years now and I think it’s very real.  He probably won’t be a great avg guy, but he takes enough walks to be solid in Obp and the power is just gonna keep growing.  I’ve posted in this thread quite a bit and can’t remember my predictions but an end of year line of .265/.335/.475 100r, 30hr,90 rbi seems extremely doable batting at the top of that lineup.  Gotta remember he’s still only 26, and has improved every year so no reason to think he won’t stop improving now.

This is great, thank you. Definitely a lot to be optimistic about, and there should be more fanfare about him. This twins lineup is too potent for their leadoff hitter to be owned in just half of leagues.

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Forget about Game of Thrones, Kepler is the real story of fire and ice. Just gotta bench and wait for the next hot streak. 

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He is what he is.  He should still return value.  He shouldn't have been too costly.

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On 6/5/2019 at 7:38 PM, DownSouthWolverine said:

Looks like the ride is over.  This guy can't decide what he wants to do and he sits against lefties.  Not worth it, IMO.  I'd rather own Garcia.

 

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On 6/5/2019 at 7:38 PM, DownSouthWolverine said:

Looks like the ride is over.  This guy can't decide what he wants to do and he sits against lefties.  Not worth it, IMO.  I'd rather own Garcia.

 

Lol. 

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Time to get him back in the lineup lol.

Wonder how many owners started him today after he was 0 for June coming in.

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4 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Time to get him back in the lineup lol.

Wonder how many owners started him today after he was 0 for June coming in.

 

Thats what’s nice about an AL only league. No other choice. 

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