BostonCajun

Matt Strahm 2019 Outlook

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AJ Cassavell: Chris Paddack and Matt Strahm start Monday and Tuesday in Seattle. That seemingly lines them up to start Saturday and Sunday against the Giants

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

Finished up his last start of the spring going 3 ip, 3 hits, 0 er, 0 walks, 6 k's

 

He is ready to roll. 

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

Finished up his last start of the spring going 3 ip, 3 hits, 0 er, 0 walks, 6 k's

Droooooooooool

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There's a ton of helium for this guy and Pablo Lopez, they are the 'it' Sps to grab

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He's so hot!! He's basically a cheaper Jack flaherty!!! Pick this man up!! The only reason his value was depressed was he was never confirmed as a starter until this week and most draft guides made earlier and had strahm with like only 100ip.

Comp:

Flaherty 12W 180k in 160ip, 3.60 ERA 1.21 WHIP  10k/9

Strahm 12W 170k in 150ip, 3.65 ERA 1.22 WHIP 10k/9

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, doctorm said:

He's so hot!! He's basically a cheaper Jack flaherty!!! Pick this man up!! The only reason his value was depressed was he was never confirmed as a starter until this week and most draft guides made earlier and had strahm with like only 100ip.

Comp:

Flaherty 12W 180k in 160ip, 3.60 ERA 1.21 WHIP  10k/9

Strahm 12W 170k in 150ip, 3.65 ERA 1.22 WHIP 10k/9

 

I think thats an awfully high whip for Strahm, I think more in the 1.13-1.18 range

 

 

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41 minutes ago, doctorm said:

He's so hot!! He's basically a cheaper Jack flaherty!!! Pick this man up!! The only reason his value was depressed was he was never confirmed as a starter until this week and most draft guides made earlier and had strahm with like only 100ip.

Comp:

Flaherty 12W 180k in 160ip, 3.60 ERA 1.21 WHIP  10k/9

Strahm 12W 170k in 150ip, 3.65 ERA 1.22 WHIP 10k/9

 

 

 

 

Ya except only 60 of those 150ip for Strahm were at the MLB level.

 

Compare that to Flaherty who had 150ip at the MLB level. 

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16 hours ago, Helms said:

 

Ya except only 60 of those 150ip for Strahm were at the MLB level.

 

Compare that to Flaherty who had 150ip at the MLB level. 

 

And then we wouldn't be getting Strahm at a massive discount and these posts wouldn't exist.

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17 hours ago, Helms said:

 

Ya except only 60 of those 150ip for Strahm were at the MLB level.

 

Compare that to Flaherty who had 150ip at the MLB level. 

 

The difference is that Flaherty is a 2 pitch pitcher, whereas Strahm has 4 legit offerings. Sure, Flaherty is more highly rated right now, but I like Strahm better in the long term

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, UberRebel said:

The difference is that Flaherty is a 2 pitch pitcher, whereas Strahm has 4 legit offerings. Sure, Flaherty is more highly rated right now, but I like Strahm better in the long term

 

Let’s compare each pitcher by % of pitches they use from 2018 data:

 

Strahm:

4 Seam: 58%

Curve: 12.32%

Slider: 15.33%

Change: 14.33%

 

Flaherty:

4 Seam: 39.95%

Sinker: 15.31%

Curve: 11.18%

Slider: 29.85%

Change: 3.71% 

 

Strahm does use 3 pitches around the same amount besides the four seam but Flaherty also uses the curve around the same amount and uses the sinker a decent amount too. Yes his slider and fastball are nasty so he uses them the most. But based on % it’s not really fair to just call him a 2 pitch pitcher. Unless you don’t believe his other 2 pitches are worth a s--- or could develop. I happen to think his curveball improved as the season went on. I am a cards fan so I watch a lot of his starts and may be a little biased lol

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=621381&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=03/27/2019

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=656427&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=03/27/2019

Edited by Helms
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Helms said:

Let’s compare each pitcher by % of pitches they use from 2018 data:

Strahm:

4 Seam: 58%

Curve: 12.32%

Slider: 15.33%

Change: 14.33%

Flaherty:

4 Seam: 39.95%

Sinker: 15.31%

Curve: 11.18%

Slider: 29.85%

Change: 3.71% 

Strahm does use 3 pitches around the same amount besides the four seam but Flaherty also uses the curve around the same amount and uses the sinker a decent amount too. Yes his slider and fastball are nasty so he uses them the most. But based on % it’s not really fair to just call him a 2 pitch pitcher. Unless you don’t believe his other 2 pitches are worth a s--- or could develop. I happen to think his curveball improved as the season went on. I am a cards fan so I watch a lot of his starts and may be a little biased lol

not OP, so i can't comment on the exact line of thinking, but my take would be that flaherty uses essentially two pitches 70% of the time. i feel this is pretty good representation of his future usage, based on 172 innings, with only one start coming as a relief pitcher. 

strahm on the other hand used primarily one pitch (60% of the time), but his data comes from 118 innings, with 93 of those coming as a reliever. i don't think strahm's numbers are particularly predictive of future pitch mix, since he'll be in a different role (starter vs reliever) this season. i've got a feeling his four-seam usage will come down, while all three of the other pitches will move up, giving him a more balanced approach than flaherty. 

edit: i'm not really comparing strahm and flaherty, just the claim that one has a more diverse pitch mix than the other. 

Edited by osb_tensor

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I think people are maybe missing the point... so I'll highlight it here.. the reason for my comp between Flaherty and Strahm outside of the stats and pitching is first and foremost:

Flaherty is going for $20 in mixed 12 team auctions (or 65th pick) vs. Strahm going for $1-2 (or 235th pick)...

this is why Strahm is so intriguing!  

 

If you had the choice between Flaherty vs Strahm for the SAME PRICE... then Flaherty is the obvious safer pick.

 

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Last I heard he’s taking the mound on Saturday. More than anything I’ll be looking to see how long they let him go. If he goes 5 innings I’ll be happy.

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24 minutes ago, Rho said:

strahm going monday now?

Yes

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5 minutes ago, Cheppy said:

Last I heard he’s taking the mound on Saturday. More than anything I’ll be looking to see how long they let him go. If he goes 5 innings I’ll be happy.

 

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So excited to see this kid in the rotation, after injury recovery. 

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i'm wondering if he's worth more in a QS league or less.
he is on the padres who won't win a ton of games, but he also might be a 5 inning guy.

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29 minutes ago, tesla said:

i'm wondering if he's worth more in a QS league or less.
he is on the padres who won't win a ton of games, but he also might be a 5 inning guy.

I think the Padres are going to surprise with a lot of wins this year, I really like that lineup. I do think they limit Strahm to a lot of 5 inning outings though, especially with that bullpen. 

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11 hours ago, tesla said:

i'm wondering if he's worth more in a QS league or less.
he is on the padres who won't win a ton of games, but he also might be a 5 inning guy.

Padres have better pitching then everyone expects, gold glove defenders at 3 positions, and 4 other guys with gold glove potential.  The only player who isnt +defense in Reyes

their offense is going to be top 10 in the NL

If you saw the recipe yesterday with Lauer, thats what to expect with all of the guys

 

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11 hours ago, tesla said:

i'm wondering if he's worth more in a QS league or less.
he is on the padres who won't win a ton of games, but he also might be a 5 inning guy.

 

I dropped him several pegs in our QS league. Doubt any of these new-look Padres young guys pitch deep into games often.

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2 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

 

I dropped him several pegs in our QS league. Doubt any of these new-look Padres young guys pitch deep into games often.

 

 

you did that after he posted a QS?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

 

 

you did that after he posted a QS?

 

Our draft was before that, however I still don't think 6 IP will be very common for him or Paddack. Like both, but I think there will be kid gloves. I could be wrong. San Diego seems serious about this season. We'll see how it plays out in the real games!

Edited by TribeFoo
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2 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

 

Our draft was before that, however I still don't think 6 IP will be very common for him or Paddack. Like both, but I think there will be kid gloves. I could be wrong. San Diego seems serious about this season. We'll see how it plays out in the real games!

Paddack sure, but Strahm is 27 year old, and has no history of arm trouble, they will give him everything he can handle

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