joebaker23

Leonard Fournette 2019 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, sSektor said:

 

They were really bad last year yeah.

 

19th in terms of RB getting past the LOS

29th in 2nd level yards

 

 But that was with Fournette out a good portion of the year and Bortles being the absolute worst version of himself.

 

Small sample size I know but through 2 weeks in 2019:

 

4th in RB getting past the LOS

13th in 2nd level yards

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

 

I literally went to the same site to see what the stats were lol.  Maybe there is hope.

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I'll be starting the bellcow. At this point of the season if you have better options your team is stacked. 

I have the option of starting a 3rd WR or a 1/3 of a committee RB. Fournette it is. I agree that after so many carries/touches, eventually a TD will occur if only by osmosis.

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Fournette is in the same camp as Bell, big workloads but held back on a weak offense. The main difference is Bell was drafted a couple rounds before Fournette.

I still don’t know if I should start him tomorrow. His volume gives him a pretty safe floor and their defense makes sure the Jags offense gets back on the field a lot. I’m debating between him and Ingram this week. They are kind of opposites. One gets all the carries but is in a weak offense, the other is in a great offense but only gets a little over half the snaps. Feels like Fournette is due for a break out game. Floor is high but his ceiling is a bit limited.

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1 hour ago, LionKid90 said:

Fournette is in the same camp as Bell, big workloads but held back on a weak offense. The main difference is Bell was drafted a couple rounds before Fournette.

I still don’t know if I should start him tomorrow. His volume gives him a pretty safe floor and their defense makes sure the Jags offense gets back on the field a lot. I’m debating between him and Ingram this week. They are kind of opposites. One gets all the carries but is in a weak offense, the other is in a great offense but only gets a little over half the snaps. Feels like Fournette is due for a break out game. Floor is high but his ceiling is a bit limited.

1:1 the same situation for me. Same opinion, same players... At the moment I would go with LF but it is a curious decision, as you totally hit the nail on the head.

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10 hours ago, sSektor said:

Robinson coming back is gonna be huge although I would still temper expectations a bit against the Titans defense. Hopefully Cashew and Chark can keep them honest. 

Titans DST against the run not good so far check it out

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Can't be any worse than the game he had against the Titans on Thursday night last season. To start the fantasy playoffs :(

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Anyone know who his cuff is?  Looking to pick up for tonight's game in case anything happens

Edited by Novaray

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6 hours ago, Novaray said:

Anyone know who his cuff is?  Looking to pick up for tonight's game in case anything happens

 

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Edited by RunCMC
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13 hours ago, Mr_Baller said:

1:1 the same situation for me. Same opinion, same players... At the moment I would go with LF but it is a curious decision, as you totally hit the nail on the head.

 

In situations like this, I tend to let Vegas break the tie.

JAX is a 38 O/U with TEN as a 1.5 point favorite.
Basically meaning they expect JAX18 TEN20 scoreboard.

BAL is a 52 O/U with KC as a 6 point favorite.
Basically meaning they expect BAL23 KC 29.

If you can't decide between 2 players, follow the points.

Hard part is if you bench Fournette and he goes off, you have to stare at those points on your bench until Sunday.
If you play him and he busts, you have to stare at those points in your lineup until Monday...

Personally, in leagues where he's your flex, I'm benching Fournette in favor of almost any of the WW WRs from the last 2 weeks. Terry McLaurin, either of the KC WRs, Hollywood, Agholor, etc.  If he's your RB2, and the replacement has to be a RB... it's a bit muddier.

Honestly both matchups look tougher than they really are.
For KC: Fournette went 13/66 against them in week 1 and Jacobs went 12/99 against them in week 2.  But because neither back scored a TD their points allowed looks tough.
For TEN: Chub went 17/75 against them in week 1 and Mack/Wilkins went 25/133 against them in week 2.  But because none of them scored a TD their points allowed looks tough.

Fournette has the higher floor, because the game should be close throughout, both teams suck.
On the other hand if KC gets ahead, there's a chance that game flow sends Ingram to the bench too often, while they throw, throw, and throw to try and stay in the game.  Inversely, if Ingram gets the goal line plunges, then his upside is higher, but floor is lower.

When that's the case, look at your opponents team this week and evaluate your matchup.  What do you need to win?  A nice safe floor?  Or do you need to incorporate some risk/reward to pull off an upset?  Then select your RB2 accordingly.  If you just have to 'not lose' go Fournette.  If you have to shoot for the moon, pray Ingram is the reason BAL stays in the game.  Strategically speaking, Ingram early and often, is how you keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible.

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Just now, Joe Odam said:

could it be....this dude just....is not good? 

 

 

Cliff notes: Yes it could

 

Nah the defense entire game plan tonight was to shut him out. To shut down the run completely. They know how much he's relied on. It's actually predictable. You can literally see it. Before he even gets the damn ball there's stacked boxes right there waiting for him. Throw in the bad play calling and the Thursday night garbage game as usual. And you have this dud.

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9 minutes ago, jclee4 said:

 

Nah the defense entire game plan tonight was to shut him out. To shut down the run completely. They know how much he's relied on. It's actually predictable. You can literally see it. Before he even gets the damn ball there's stacked boxes right there waiting for him. Throw in the bad play calling and the Thursday night garbage game as usual. And you have this dud.

you're kidding yourself

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He must have set some record tonight with 1 run accounting for 104.5% of his total yardage on 15 carries. When do you ever see something like that when a guy has 66 yards?

Edited by P@ckersFan
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5 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Don't watch the game. Just look at box score great game minus TD which he damn near had

He was bottled up pretty badly all game with 11 carries for -8 yards until he busted out a 70 yard run on their last drive. 

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On the bright side, Jags weren't lying when they said Fournette would be more involved in the pass game. He's a true 3-down back now

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Has the Jags OC ever heard of running outside and not right up the middle (on 1st down every time)?

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He looks fine. Showed some decent hands too, but Minshew was really late getting him the ball on some of those screens. Could have had a better night. Titans were only interested in stopping Fournette and nearly did until the end.

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Lol this dude crumples like a piece of wet toilet paper. Just grab his feet and he'll fall like Humpty Dumpty.

That play at the start when he just crashed to the ground off a barely tackle😂 RIP sell high to your nearest workaholic friend who only does the work football league for the networking

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Can't wait for the "YEAH BUT IF YOU TAKE AWAY HIS ONE BIG RUN" brigade tomorrow.

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