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Leonard Fournette 2019 Outlook

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20 minutes ago, mikepferrara said:

Everybody who is knocking LF that ACTUALLY watched last night, can you honestly tell me that any other RB in the league would’ve done more with what he was given, on the short week Thursday game with the crappy weather conditions?

 

Lots of running backs wouldn't have gotten caught from behind on the 69 yard run.  He ran a 4.51 at 240 pounds.  Seems like he still runs a 4.51 at 223 or whatever his weight is now.  He should have kept the weight, maybe it would help him break more tackles.  Granted the O-Line wasn't exactly great last night.

 

 

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Henry rushed for 1,000 yards and 12 TDs last year.

 

Now let's get back to LF and how he has 0 TDs through 3 games.

 

Do me a favor and tell me when Henry scored his first TD last season.

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2 minutes ago, sSektor said:

 YPC is a garbage stat that doesn't tell the entire story.

 

Pretty sure that was Henrys ypc last night but Henry trotted Into the endzone for his 4th of the year last night.

😂

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1 minute ago, Szer0 said:

Wow, I didn't know we are still playing 2018 fantasy footsie....

 

Yeah how dare I use an example of an RB bouncing back from a slow start due to his situation in a thread where people are bashing an RB for having a slow start due to his situation.

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I don't blame LF for not breaking many tackles, I'm sure his ankles are hurting him. It's discouraging that he has 0 TDs this year and got caught from behind on his long run instead of scoring the TD. Hope this isn't a season long trend.

Without a TD he is still on pace for 172 fantasy points in a 0.5 PPR league. That would have been good for 20th last year, aka a mid/late RB2.

Add in literally 5 TDs and that would put him on pace to be an RB1.

The fact that Fournette has squeaked out 273 yards playing with this OL and 1.5 games of Gardner Minshew is incredibly impressive. 

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The problem is we aren't evaluating Fournette's performance individually.  We have to take everything into account because he has the same o-line and same team to work with all year.  

 

I think many people are overreacting a bit too much positively and negatively, but others have it right in that for right now, he probably is what he is and the touchdowns will come.  In the end he'll likely not be a bust at his draft position, but he doesn't look like the league winner we were hoping for either.  

 

Now of course the x-factor is when Foles comes back or if Minshew can keep getting better.  If the boxes loosen up, then Fournette has shown me enough this year to think that he can put up some good numbers and be a good value at his draft slot, especially towards the fantasy playoffs.  That's my hope right now, if not you have a guy that is high floor, low ceiling...could be worse.

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13 minutes ago, Illusion_J said:

The problem is we aren't evaluating Fournette's performance individually.  We have to take everything into account because he has the same o-line and same team to work with all year.  

 

I think many people are overreacting a bit too much positively and negatively, but others have it right in that for right now, he probably is what he is and the touchdowns will come.  In the end he'll likely not be a bust at his draft position, but he doesn't look like the league winner we were hoping for either.  

 

Now of course the x-factor is when Foles comes back or if Minshew can keep getting better.  If the boxes loosen up, then Fournette has shown me enough this year to think that he can put up some good numbers and be a good value at his draft slot, especially towards the fantasy playoffs.  That's my hope right now, if not you have a guy that is high floor, low ceiling...could be worse.

 

Thank you for a well thought out argument. I probably don’t agree overall with you about Fournette as a player, but I can’t disagree with anything you said. Well said.

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2 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Westbrook also dropped an easy TD pass. 

We are still looking at stacked boxes the next couple of weeks, but if Minshew continues to be borderline competent things will start to open up for Fournette. Either way, if he gets 6-8 targets a game and goal line carries, he can get 2YPC and still be productive (and of course no one thinks he will actually have another game where he goes 12 carries for negative yards only to bailed out by one big run). The titans defense is very tough against RBs even when they can't stack the box. 

 

True, I forgot about the Westbrook pass. And Minshew certainly hasn't look terrible. 

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1 hour ago, Ruut6 said:

Without a TD he is still on pace for 172 fantasy points in a 0.5 PPR league. That would have been good for 20th last year, aka a mid/late RB2.

Add in literally 5 TDs and that would put him on pace to be an RB1.

The fact that Fournette has squeaked out 273 yards playing with this OL and 1.5 games of Gardner Minshew is incredibly impressive. 

He has done it with 2.75 games of Minshew. Foles went down in the 1st quarter of game 1.

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Just a few notes from last nights game.

I don't think Fournette came off the field once. That is pretty amazing in today's game. You can think he is the worst RB, but if you get that kind of volume you should have a safe floor.

He isn't the most agile back and doesn't make people miss. I agree with most people that his runs last night were a product of bad blocking, as he was met either at or before the line of scrimmage many times. However, on a couple catches, he showed that he couldn't make people miss. They called a screen pass for him in the first half which he caught, and then kind of braced to get hit as the DB went for him. I think there was at least one other time where he caught it and simply got hit. A great RB like Bell or McCaffery can make guys miss even when they look like they should be hit.

He looks a lot better in heavy sets with a FB leading the way. He did most his damage with a FB in front of him. Maybe we see more heavy sets going forward.

I don't really understand all the Minshew hype. He is a fun story, but take away the great completion percentage and his yards per attempt were awful, and they basically scored less than a TD in the last three quarters. One of those TD's was given to the Jags by the Titans. I don't understand the people that say Minshew will keep the box soft. Maybe he improves, but he looks like an above average back up QB to me.

I think Fournette will be fine, the TD's will come, but don't see him breaking into the RB1 category. He won't lose you many weeks, but he likely won't win you many weeks. Think he is your typical safe floor RB2. Still think he would be better off with Foles, but lets hope the offense gets better down the stretch of the season.

Edited by LionKid90

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5 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

Just a few notes from last nights game.

I don't think Fournette came off the field once. That is pretty amazing in today's game. You can think he is the worst RB, but if you get that kind of volume you should have a safe floor.

He isn't the most agile back and doesn't make people miss. I agree with most people that his runs last night were a product of bad blocking, as he was met either at or before the line of scrimmage many times. However, on a couple catches, he showed that he couldn't make people miss. They called a screen pass for him in the first half which he caught, and then kind of braced to get hit as the DB went for him. I think there was at least one other time where he caught it and simply got hit. A great RB like Bell or McCaffery can make guys miss even when they look like they should be hit.

He looks a lot better in heavy sets with a FB leading the way. He did most his damage with a FB in front of him. Maybe we see more heavy sets going forward.

I don't really understand all the Minshew hype. He is a fun story, but take away the great completion percentage and his yards per attempt were awful, and they basically scored less than a TD in the last three quarters. One of those TD's was given to the Jags by the Titans. I don't understand the people that say Minshew will keep the box soft. Maybe he improves, but he looks like an above average back up QB to me.

I think Fournette will be fine, the TD's will come, but don't see him breaking into the RB1 category. He won't lose you many weeks, but he likely won't win you many weeks. Think he is your typical safe floor RB2. Still think he would be better off with Foles, but lets hope the offense gets better down the stretch of the season.

Minshew basically had one good drive, with two 20+ yard throws including the TD to Chark. Both excellent passes. The first TD was a nice throw but was completely bailed out by the TEN muffed punt.

 

Aside from those three throws mentioned, Minshew was pretty terrible. After Tennessee’s defense settled in, they pretty much just stacked the box and dared Minshew to throw deep. IIRC he had one more 20+ pass in the second half that led to the first FG. Fournette’s 69 yarder set up the other FG.

 

Going to take some more time to unstack these boxes.

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I’m not going to go back and review the tape but it’s likely the Titans picked up on this if true. 

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18 minutes ago, yahyahtrick said:

 

I’m not going to go back and review the tape but it’s likely the Titans picked up on this if true. 

 

I thought I noticed something. I thought it was with his leg angle cause on every run play it likes multiple CBs would start running up, but this makes sense

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat

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I know outside of the garbage time run it was a horrific night, but I'm still optimistic. Minshew looks capable which is huge, and the volume is phenomenal. What we've witnessed these past three weeks is his absolute floor. That's not so bad.

If you're not worried about his health he'd be a prime but low for me. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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Regardless of his mostly anemic night on the ground vs Tennessee, if you play in PPR like I do you have to be pretty happy with what you’re seeing. Currently fifth in targets per game among RBs which gives him a very good floor. I’m sure the TDs will start to come as well as the year goes along. Also, people seem to be discounting the fact that Tennessee was pretty much getting to him as soon as he got the ball. Not really anything he can do there. I’d say he’s an RB1 ROS in PPR. 

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Just now, Rickydragon said:

Someone rage traded LF to me.  I like the receptions.  He’s going to score a td this year right?

 

Should of did the research on that before you processed that trade lol. Anyway welcome, none of us know the answer to your question lol. 

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19 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

Hopefully this week he will find the endzone. He's still averaging 21 touches a game ( over 14 carries and over 6 targets a game).

 

Not to mention he's playing practically every snap at RB for the Jags.

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My theory on the lack of big games is:

1.I think Minshew has tipped his hand.

2. First game Chiefs probably stacked the box. The other 2 defenses they played have been solid.

Trade for him and get him cheap if you can. He's gonna have over 100 yards and a td this week. Volume, volume, volume. I think he is one of the biggest buy lows out there. 

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On 9/20/2019 at 3:42 PM, BGDDYKWL said:

I know outside of the garbage time run it was a horrific night, but I'm still optimistic. Minshew looks capable which is huge, and the volume is phenomenal. What we've witnessed these past three weeks is his absolute floor. That's not so bad.

If you're not worried about his health he'd be a prime but low for me. 

 

Nah his floor is last game without the 70 yard run

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21 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

Nah his floor is last game without the 70 yard run


Are we really doing this...and his ceiling was him taking it to the house for a TD. You take away any RB/WR’s huge play and they might have a mediocre stat line. 

Edited by RunCMC
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being a workhorse and a true 3 down back are great, but what about durability? 

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