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Carlos Carrasco 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

And my point is that "Carrasco has been incredibly unlucky" doesn't necessarily follow from "Carrasco has an unsustainably high BABIP in a tiny sample".  It may very well be luck that has caused so many of his batted balls to find open spaces in his first 10 IP, or it may be any number of other things.

We all know he's a good pitcher, so we all expect him to turn things around, at which point the BABIP would tend to regress toward his career norms.  But there's no fundamental law of mathematics that makes that regression happen -- it's his performance on the field that makes it happen.

 

How can Carrasco has been incredibly unlucky not follow from Carrasco's .613 BABIP?  Even if you want to argue that pitchers have some small amount of control over BABIP based on how hard of contact they are giving up (which studies have been very inconclusive on), the highest BABIP against any pitcher in baseball last year was .326 (Nick Pivetta).  So yes, I'd argue the law of averages is going to make Carrasco's .613 BABIP regress over a full season.

Last year, Carrasco walked 5.5% and struck out 29.5% of batters faced.  This year, he's walked 5.5% and struck out 30.9% of batters faced.  That is an elite strikeout to walk ratio, and it's actually slightly better this year than it was last year (or any year of his career for that matter).

Let's play a game of anonymous pitchers who were both drafted in the top 15 pitchers overall this year

Pitcher A: 5.5% walk rate, 30.9% strikeout rate, .613 BABIP, 4.85 FIP, 4.08 xFIP

Pitcher B: 12.3% walk rate, 20.0% strikeout rate, .231 BABIP, 7.25 FIP, 4.82 xFIP

Which one of these two pitchers would you be more concerned about?  Based on these numbers, I think everyone would say they are far more concerned about Pitcher B, right?

As you might have guessed, Pitcher A is Carlos Carrasco while pitcher B is Aaron Nola.  Unlike Nola, Carrasco has a long track record of consistent success over multiple years too.  I said it before and I'll say it again, Carrasco is the best buy-low in baseball in my opinion because it seems like Carrasco owners are ready to jump off a bridge right now.  I got Carrasco for Shane Greene in one league yesterday.  At that price, I'm buying all day.

Edited by FootballFan101
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2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

How can Carrasco has been incredibly unlucky not follow from Carrasco's .613 BABIP?  Even if you want to argue that pitchers have some small amount of control over BABIP based on how hard of contact they are giving up (which studies have been very inconclusive on), the highest BABIP against any pitcher in baseball last year was .326 (Nick Pivetta).  So yes, I'd argue the law of averages is going to make Carrasco's .613 BABIP regress over a full season.

 

Then you'd be wrong, because a sample of 34 total batted ball events isn't large enough to have any explanatory/predictive power whatsoever, including attributing all of the bad results to sheer luck.

Pitchers have good days and bad days with their stuff, their command, etc.  In short runs, these things can lead to fluctuations in BABIP that can't be entirely explained away by luck.  In the long run, yes, they will converge on career norms, but that only happens because the pitcher's talent and skill makes it happen.  If the skills decline, the BABIP can increase, which is not hypothetical given that BABIP increases with age.  Considering the obvious factor of survivorship bias -- pitchers who decline in effectiveness will be removed -- it's pretty clear that pitchers have some control over BABIP, along with hitters.  Not enough to lead to a .613 BABIP over a long time, of course, but enough to get them taken out of the rotation because they're not missing enough bats or inducing enough ground balls or lazy fly balls to be effective.

I have no argument with the rest of your comments about Carrasco, and agree he's a good buy low if you can find someone willing to sell low.  I don't see anything in his performance so far that leads me to think he's anything less than a good SP2 or back-end SP1.  At the same time, a single data point from one of your leagues doesn't capture what the market thinks about him, which is why we generally don't allow posting of completed trades in outlook threads.  I don't think there are actually a lot of owners out there willing to give up on a guy they probably used a 3rd round pick after three starts.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

How can Carrasco has been incredibly unlucky not follow from Carrasco's .613 BABIP?  Even if you want to argue that pitchers have some small amount of control over BABIP based on how hard of contact they are giving up (which studies have been very inconclusive on), the highest BABIP against any pitcher in baseball last year was .326 (Nick Pivetta).  So yes, I'd argue the law of averages is going to make Carrasco's .613 BABIP regress over a full season.

Last year, Carrasco walked 5.5% and struck out 29.5% of batters faced.  This year, he's walked 5.5% and struck out 30.9% of batters faced.  That is an elite strikeout to walk ratio, and it's actually slightly better this year than it was last year (or any year of his career for that matter).

Let's play a game of anonymous pitchers who were both drafted in the top 15 pitchers overall this year

Pitcher A: 5.5% walk rate, 30.9% strikeout rate, .613 BABIP, 4.85 FIP, 4.08 xFIP

Pitcher B: 12.3% walk rate, 20.0% strikeout rate, .231 BABIP, 7.25 FIP, 4.82 xFIP

Which one of these two pitchers would you be more concerned about?  Based on these numbers, I think everyone would say they are far more concerned about Pitcher B, right?

As you might have guessed, Pitcher A is Carlos Carrasco while pitcher B is Aaron Nola.  Unlike Nola, Carrasco has a long track record of consistent success over multiple years too.  I said it before and I'll say it again, Carrasco is the best buy-low in baseball in my opinion because it seems like Carrasco owners are ready to jump off a bridge right now.  I got Carrasco for Shane Greene in one league yesterday.  At that price, I'm buying all day.

 

If I go out there and throw my at best 60mph fastball and get clobbered to a BABIP of .600, it's not ALL bad luck. I'm a bad pitcher. While I hope you are correct about Carrasco, there is a possibility that his skills are declining, therefore his BABIP will rise if that is the case. That is what we come here to discuss.  

Edited by ComeSaleAway

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Sure—BABIP isn’t perfect, and there are various factors which can impact it for individuals.   But the dominant point is that it’s a lot more likely to move towards 300 than anything else, as several have noted all along, and that’s highly relevant to Carrasco right now.  There’s not much of a case the various exceptions and limitations explain his situation today.

Sometimes knowing the nuance can distract someone from getting the big picture—that’s seems likely to be what happened to tonycpsu in this thread.

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6 minutes ago, ComeSaleAway said:

 

If I go out there and throw my at best 60mph fastball and get clobbered to a BABIP of .600, it's not ALL bad luck. I'm a bad pitcher. While I hope you are correct about Carrasco, there is a possibility that his skills are declining, therefore his BABIP will rise if that is the case. That is what we come here to discuss.  

 

I think all agree that is possible.  But there’s not much reason to think that is what is going on—and of course he isn’t throwing 60 mph fastballs!

My point is not that everyone will always regress towards their BABIP trie talent level...but it is always the best bet absent other data.

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9 minutes ago, ComeSaleAway said:

 

If I go out there and throw my at best 60mph fastball and get clobbered to a BABIP of .600, it's not ALL bad luck. I'm a bad pitcher. While I hope you are correct about Carrasco, there is a possibility that his skills are declining, therefore his BABIP will rise if that is the case. That is what we come here to discuss.  

 

Well sure, but the average person off the street wouldn't be able to strike out 30% of the batters they are facing like Carrasco has this year.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well sure, but the average person off the street wouldn't be able to strike out 30% of the batters they are facing like Carrasco has this year.

 

True and someday Carrasco won't be able to do that either. I just hope this is not that year when that falls way off. 1 good start 2 clunkers, just hope it is him getting warmed up.

Edited by ComeSaleAway

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At Seattle next...   is it possible SEA is due to cool down?

Over/Under 2.5 homers? Over/Under runs 5.5?

 

 

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9 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

At Seattle next...   is it possible SEA is due to cool down?

Over/Under 2.5 homers? Over/Under runs 5.5?

 

 

Over/Under 2 innings?

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Anyone trusting him tonight?

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46 minutes ago, Scaramanga said:

Anyone trusting him tonight?

Mariners have cooled off a bit, Indians lineup is getting better. That said, I'm still hesitant to start him.

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Warning to y'all, I am starting him so he's got the curse of the smurf working against him too.

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We'll see how the rest of the start works out but I cannot believe people are questioning this guy after a couple of bad starts.  He's always had a weak fastball, has always been prone to random blow-up first innings, and always puts up elite numbers.  Absent an injury, you can't ever bench this guy.

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You guys can get off the ledge now. 7 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks, 0 R and 12 K’s. 

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On 4/14/2019 at 11:09 AM, tonycpsu said:

 

Then you'd be wrong, because a sample of 34 total batted ball events isn't large enough to have any explanatory/predictive power whatsoever, including attributing all of the bad results to sheer luck.

Pitchers have good days and bad days with their stuff, their command, etc.  In short runs, these things can lead to fluctuations in BABIP that can't be entirely explained away by luck.  In the long run, yes, they will converge on career norms, but that only happens because the pitcher's talent and skill makes it happen.  If the skills decline, the BABIP can increase, which is not hypothetical given that BABIP increases with age.  Considering the obvious factor of survivorship bias -- pitchers who decline in effectiveness will be removed -- it's pretty clear that pitchers have some control over BABIP, along with hitters.  Not enough to lead to a .613 BABIP over a long time, of course, but enough to get them taken out of the rotation because they're not missing enough bats or inducing enough ground balls or lazy fly balls to be effective.

 

That slamming noise heard round the world tonight was the buy-low window on Carlos Carrasco slamming shut tonight.

I still don't understand how tonycpsu can claim that I was "wrong" about Carrasco's .613 BABIP being unlucky.  How many pitchers in baseball have ever had a .400 BABIP against, let alone a .600 BABIP?  All of Carrasco's advanced stats (K rate, walk rate, etc) looked just fine even before tonight.

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29 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

That slamming noise heard round the world tonight was the buy-low window on Carlos Carrasco slamming shut tonight.

I still don't understand how tonycpsu can claim that I was "wrong" about Carrasco's .613 BABIP being unlucky.  How many pitchers in baseball have ever had a .400 BABIP against, let alone a .600 BABIP?  All of Carrasco's advanced stats (K rate, walk rate, etc) looked just fine even before tonight.

While I get what you’re saying I’m going to slightly disagree with you about the babip being solely attributed to bad luck. Before tonight’s game he was giving up hard contact at almost 60%. That’s crazy high. And he was being barrelled up at about 23%, also crazy high. So what tonyspcu was saying is quite valid. He was getting smoked when he did give up contact. When you get hit that hard, you’re babip is going to be huge.

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, dilly3307 said:

While I get what you’re saying I’m going to slightly disagree with you about the babip being solely attributed to bad luck. Before tonight’s game he was giving up hard contact at almost 60%. That’s crazy high. And he was being barrelled up at about 23%, also crazy high. So what tonyspcu was saying is quite valid. He was getting smoked when he did give up contact. When you get hit that hard, you’re babip is going to be huge.

 

Even the worst pitcher in baseball isn't going to have a .400 BABIP, let alone a .600 BABIP.  Did Carrasco suck last time out against KC?  Absolutely, but his whole career he's been wildly inconsistent from the start to start, looking unhittable for one start, then getting lit up next time out.  However, when you add all the starts up at the end of the year, Carrasco has been incredibly consistent from season to season, posting an ERA under 3.65 five seasons in a row. Even before tonight he was still striking out over 30% of batters faced, so it's not like he has no stuff left anymore.  If you don't want Carrasco, I'll gladly take him.   The two early round pitchers I'd be concerned about are Sale and Nola, not Carrasco

Edited by FootballFan101
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9 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Even the worst pitcher in baseball isn't going to have a .400 BABIP, let alone a .600 BABIP.  Did Carrasco suck last time out against KC?  Absolutely, but his whole career he's been wildly inconsistent from the start to start, looking unhittable for one start, then getting lit up next time out.  However, when you add all the starts up at the end of the year, Carrasco has been incredibly consistent from season to season, posting an ERA under 3.65 five seasons in a row. Even before tonight he was still striking out over 30% of batters faced, so it's not like he has no stuff left anymore.  If you don't want Carrasco, I'll gladly take him.   The two early round pitchers I'd be concerned about are Sale and Nola, not Carrasco

What are talking about? I never said he doesn’t have “stuff” left and I never said I didn’t want him. I own him and I started him yesterday.

I merely said if you are getting barrelled at a high rate and giving up the an astronomical amount oh hard contact, there’s a good chance that the babip isn’t pure bad luck.I certainly don’t expect him to finish with a .600 babip. I’ve owned him for years in multiple leagues. I understand what Cookie is.

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Pulled mid start with an injury after an idiotic play by Santana led him right into the base runner at 1st

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5 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Pulled mid start with an injury after an idiotic play by Santana led him right into the base runner at 1st

Sigh. 

 

What happened?

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7 minutes ago, mcbane said:

Sigh. 

 

What happened?

Looks like he might of either rolled his ankle or something hamstring related.   He looked a bit gimpy and did finish the inning so maybe after discussing in the dugout after the inning taking him out was precautionary.

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1 minute ago, BigPapi44 said:

Looks like he might of either rolled his ankle or something hamstring related.   He looked a bit gimpy and did finish the inning so maybe after discussing in the dugout after the inning taking him out was precautionary.

Thanks 

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