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Carlos Carrasco 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

I mean he played catch weeks after, while was shut down from all baseball activities immediately after. So yeah pretty sure it wasn’t that lol

 

Would be a helluva good story if this guy comes back at pitches this season. I’m rooting for him. 

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Posted (edited)

Agree with others- hard to know prognosis and when he’ll be back based on info we have.  However some good signs, starting with the announcement itself. For the Indians and Carrasco to put this out there probably means they feel good about where he’s at in treatment. He’s visiting kids with leukemia, which he probably wouldn’t do if in the middle of an intense part of his treatment. And we know he’s played catch and at least there is the possibility he will come back this year. All this points to getting past the critical phase of treatment which is obviously a good sign.

 

Really don’t think this affects his redraft or dynasty value too much. If you haven’t already, redraft I think you can move on unless unlimited IL slots. Dynasty is a hold as prognosis seems positive. 

Edited by bluefrogguy

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2 hours ago, KidDynamite420 said:

He’s been cleared for strength and conditioning and pitching workouts. 

So...I'm not a doctor or anything, and who I'm about to talk about was not an elite athlete with access to the medical care Carlos has....BUT:

Two years ago my 28 year old cousin was diagnosed out of the blue with leukemia.  He's a young, strong guy who was a gym regular and played pickup bball 3 days a week, and ran about 12 miles a week...so no couch potato/slob...just a normal athletic active guy.  He kept getting nosebleeds out of the blue and went to the doc and wala, got diagnosed after some tests.  The treatment for him CRUSHED him for 18 months...I mean he was weak and always tired and just couldn't get moving.  Always drained...always beat...always tired.  He's back on his feet now and after the last 6 months is pretty much back to normal and doing his thing again.  He's a big fantasy baller also...he texted me yesterday "There's no f*cking way Carrasco comes back this year, unless they're saving the good stuff for professional athletes that I don't know about."

 

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11 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

So...I'm not a doctor or anything, and who I'm about to talk about was not an elite athlete with access to the medical care Carlos has....BUT:

Two years ago my 28 year old cousin was diagnosed out of the blue with leukemia.  He's a young, strong guy who was a gym regular and played pickup bball 3 days a week, and ran about 12 miles a week...so no couch potato/slob...just a normal athletic active guy.  He kept getting nosebleeds out of the blue and went to the doc and wala, got diagnosed after some tests.  The treatment for him CRUSHED him for 18 months...I mean he was weak and always tired and just couldn't get moving.  Always drained...always beat...always tired.  He's back on his feet now and after the last 6 months is pretty much back to normal and doing his thing again.  He's a big fantasy baller also...he texted me yesterday "There's no f*cking way Carrasco comes back this year, unless they're saving the good stuff for professional athletes that I don't know about."

 

There are many different types of leukemia and the treatments also vary greatly. I think it’s safe to say the recovery differences between your cousin and CC has to do with those factors rather than quality of medical care.

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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

There are many different types of leukemia and the treatments also vary greatly. I think it’s safe to say the recovery differences between your cousin and CC has to do with those factors rather than quality of medical care.

 

Yea...knowing nothing about that kind of cancer you're probably right.  My Mom had non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma and it was actually a piece of cake for her to put in into remission...so, here's hoping for the best for Carlos. 

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Ya from what I’ve read there are 4 different types of leukaemia. It appears he has a manageable one and is currently in remission which is huge. Im pretty sure the only way to actually “cure” it is a bone marrow transplant if I’m not mistaken. I’m sure he’s conflicted between managing it and playing vs. Sitting out for an extended period of time and curing it. The competitor in him probably wants to play in fear he will never get a chance to take the mound again. Either way, America loves a comeback story like this. He’ll make that comeback 

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Yeah Roman Reigns the wrestler was diagnosed with Leukemia and was back within like 4 months and that’s a very physically taxing profession.

There definitely is a wide range of forms of the disease. I’ve seen the worst of it up close and it isn’t pretty. 

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1 minute ago, KidDynamite420 said:

He says he expects to be back with the team by end of July.. 💪

Players always say they will be back by such and such time.  Never have seen one right yet.  They are always optimistic beyond belief even if it is just a blister let alone this.  I don't remotely believe he will be back this month at all.

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On 7/9/2019 at 2:12 AM, KidDynamite420 said:

Ya from what I’ve read there are 4 different types of leukaemia. It appears he has a manageable one and is currently in remission which is huge. Im pretty sure the only way to actually “cure” it is a bone marrow transplant if I’m not mistaken. I’m sure he’s conflicted between managing it and playing vs. Sitting out for an extended period of time and curing it. The competitor in him probably wants to play in fear he will never get a chance to take the mound again. Either way, America loves a comeback story like this. He’ll make that comeback 

 

Way more than that unfortunately. Especially if you're taking genetic variations of reach type into account. In general young kids get the hard and fast but mostly curable ones and older folks get more chronic smoldering kinds but there are many exceptions and a guy in his 30s could really get the whole spectrum without it being too odd.  It's definitely promising that he's out and about and talking about playing. Treatment for the more aggressive types as you'd expect are aggressive themselves and usually wipe your immune system and can require long hospital stints. 

You don't always need a bone marrow transplant to cure all leukemia. Again it depends on the type and if the treatments available are specific enough to kill cancer cells only or do they wipe out a big section of your cells (eg antibodies or in the case of APL a form of vitamin A). Also if they need to kill off all the cancer cells or can they control them. 

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They were talking about him moments ago during the All Star game. Was said he's taking some kind of oral pill to help his condition and that September he might be expected back. Who knows, at this point it's anyone's guess until something a bit more official comes out.

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5 hours ago, tonywow said:

They were talking about him moments ago during the All Star game. Was said he's taking some kind of oral pill to help his condition and that September he might be expected back. Who knows, at this point it's anyone's guess until something a bit more official comes out.

Welp I said I didn't believe the end of July perdition so glad no one else does either.  I just hope he regains his health but don't see him back at all this year.

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I hope he doesn’t end up in perdition myself!

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Most important thing, he should survive. And secondly, chances are good he will pitch in MLB again.

Wish him the best.

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The stand up to cancer thing that all the Indians did for him at the all star game was pretty cool. 

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Posted (edited)

According to this it is CML (chronic myeloid leukemia):

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27157792/fighting-cancer-carrasco-saluted-5th-asg

This is excellent news for him. Treament of CML is one of the big breakthroughs of targeted therapy the last 20 years with incredible results. If he has a garden variety CML without any negative prognostic factors, he likely has an excellent prognosis and the therapy isn't too physically taxing like for acute leukemia (oral pill). I wouldn't be surprised to see him back this year earlier than expected with that diagnosis.  25 years ago, it would have been a poor prognosis.  Fantasy wise I think his dynasty value goes up with this news (decreased concern of long term sequelae).  I think in redraft leagues with lots of IL slots, he's worth a IL stash, albeit not a high priority one. I'd consider him about like Rich Hill value in terms of IL stashes. 

Edited by bluefrogguy
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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, tonywow said:

They were talking about him moments ago during the All Star game. Was said he's taking some kind of oral pill to help his condition and that September he might be expected back. Who knows, at this point it's anyone's guess until something a bit more official comes out.

 

1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

According to this it is CML (chronic myeloid leukemia):

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27157792/fighting-cancer-carrasco-saluted-5th-asg

This is excellent news for him. Treament of CML is one of the big breakthroughs of targeted therapy the last 20 years with incredible results. If he has a garden variety CML without any negative prognostic factors, he likely has an excellent prognosis and the therapy isn't too physically taxing like for acute leukemia (oral pill). I wouldn't be surprised to see him back this year earlier than expected with that diagnosis.  25 years ago, it would have been a poor prognosis.  Fantasy wise I think his dynasty value goes up with this news (decreased concern of long term sequelae).  I think in redraft leagues with lots of IL slots, he's worth a IL stash, albeit not a high priority one. I'd consider him about like Rich Hill value in terms of IL stashes. 

Since he apparently is taking this oral pill then why if he doesn't have to take this oral pill is he taking this oral pill?

And I would be shocked, surprised and amazed if he came back this season at all barring maybe a last day of the season "support" appearance.  Yes it would be nice if he could but sorry I'm a realist about this kind of stuff.

And you speak of dynasty value.  I dropped him in a 14 team dynasty and no one has picked him up at all.  He is also 32 years old, not too old for pitchers, but would start declining sooner than later even if healthy.  In dynasty that is when you look to trade (he had no value and this was before the illness was announced) or drop for younger arms. 

BTW I dropped him before the leukemia story broke.  I knew it has to be something bad to be out that long with no updates.  And again, no one picked him up.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2019/07/10/what-makes-major-league-baseball-pitcher-carlos-carrascos-leukemia-so-treatable/amp/

This article on the treatment of his leukaemia is very promising. I guess an NHL player had the same thing a couple years ago and resumed his career after some time off. I don’t think he’s being blindly optimistic in saying he could return end of July 😯

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23 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Since he apparently is taking this oral pill then why if he doesn't have to take this oral pill is he taking this oral pill?

And I would be shocked, surprised and amazed if he came back this season at all barring maybe a last day of the season "support" appearance.  Yes it would be nice if he could but sorry I'm a realist about this kind of stuff.

And you speak of dynasty value.  I dropped him in a 14 team dynasty and no one has picked him up at all.  He is also 32 years old, not too old for pitchers, but would start declining sooner than later even if healthy.  In dynasty that is when you look to trade (he had no value and this was before the illness was announced) or drop for younger arms. 

BTW I dropped him before the leukemia story broke.  I knew it has to be something bad to be out that long with no updates.  And again, no one picked him up.

 

I'd pick him up ASAP in that dynasty league. I would anyway. This is a good diagnosis. Plus with the fatigue and anemia it explains his lackluster performance earlier in the year.  

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1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

I'd pick him up ASAP in that dynasty league. I would anyway. This is a good diagnosis. Plus with the fatigue and anemia it explains his lackluster performance earlier in the year.  

It doesn't explain his radical up and down performances for years and years though.  And again I don't think he will ever be as good as he was when he was yo-yoing all over the place when I owned him down the years. 

I really hope I'm wrong of course but again I consider myself a realist and have no optimism about a final cure because cancer is something as is always at best in remission and never ever cured.  I hope it stays in remission for the rest of his life though.

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16 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

It doesn't explain his radical up and down performances for years and years though.  And again I don't think he will ever be as good as he was when he was yo-yoing all over the place when I owned him down the years. 

I really hope I'm wrong of course but again I consider myself a realist and have no optimism about a final cure because cancer is something as is always at best in remission and never ever cured.  I hope it stays in remission for the rest of his life though.

 

He most certainly has had and will have some age related decline in baseball ability, and the slope of that decline is one of the harder things to gauge in dynasty.  But definitely don't agree with the statement that cancer can never be cured. There are lots of kinds of cancers that can be cured. Unless there is some poor prognostic features (and doesn't sound like there is) his is one that is very treatable. I don't think his long term value changes at all.  And again, if you thought his struggles early were an indication of rapid age related decline, he has a pretty good excuse for struggling.  Heck, it's kinda impressive he did as well as he did. 

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Posted (edited)

I didn't say his yo-yoing had anything to do with his age.  He has yo-yo'ed his entire career.  I define a yo-yo pitcher as one who can flip flop between stellar starts and horrible starts and never ever managed to show consistency.  E-Rod is another example of this type of pitcher though he isn't as good as Carresco is obviously.

Age is just another thing to consider in a dynasty.  As in he may decline (visualize a player walking down a ramp but a decline isn't a yo-yo (visualize him playing with a yo-yo).  A yo-yo is what he does whether at the top of the ramp or while he descends it.  Thus ends BBT's glossary of pitching debacles.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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