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PersonUnderTheStair

Crazy to keep a closer over Gallo?

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Posted (edited)

12 team h2h 5x5 OBP/QS - $260 budget 

 

Trying to determine my 3rd keeper - is it crazy to consider keeping a $1 closer over a value bat?

 

I am keeping Jose Ramirez ($17) and Javier Baez ($2) and am choosing between...

  1. Quote

     

    1. Joey Gallo ($9)
    2. Jose Leclerc ($1)
    3. Jonathan Villar ($1)
    4. James Paxton ($15)

     

     

 

Gut leans Gallo in this OBP league, but starting my draft with an elite closer locked in tempts me

 

thoughts?

 

 

 

  1.  
Edited by PersonUnderTheStair

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Well, your not crazy, their values are very similar here considering the $. I'd be LecLerc goes for $10 or so in your auction and Gallo would go near $16 or so. 

Anyway, I'd keep Gallo, he's too good in OBP to let go back.

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I would go with Gallo. While having an elite RP is get to start the year. You can always find the diamond in the rough RP ala Leclec from last year

 

 

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I take either buck guy

Not a gallo fan

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Posted (edited)

If it’s .obp, you,should go with gallo.  You pretty much know what you’re going to get (with probable upside.) the net profit you make on gallo should outweigh the profi from lectern,who could be out of a job in 2 months for all we know. That said I’d probably take Villar.

Edited by Cesare13

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Gotta keep Gallo even though I totally get that LeClerc is really tempting here...  Gallo is way too good in obp leagues

 

Paxton definitely out with those options... Villar at $1 is kinda nice but also out.  

 

Keep Gallo.

 

 

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11 hours ago, HOOTIE said:

I take either buck guy

Not a gallo fan

Ditto...though I have no problem grabbing a $15 Paxton either. 

 

Not a fan of closers as keepers as a general rule.  Gallo and his avg are SO bad as to be laughable.  Paying for the new Dave Kingman.  Gallo had a 312 OBP last season, so I do not see what is so fantastic about that either in an OBP league.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

Ditto...though I have no problem grabbing a $15 Paxton either. 

 

Not a fan of closers as keepers as a general rule.  Gallo and his avg are SO bad as to be laughable.  Paying for the new Dave Kingman.  Gallo had a 312 OBP last season, so I do not see what is so fantastic about that either in an OBP league.

 

No his OBP isn't elite becuase of his average... but his OBP is almost exactly league average.  League average is *worlds* better then his batting average which is quite poor.  The delta between his AVG and OBP is elite, so if he can get even a smallish bump in his AVG it moves his OBP from league average to above league average/good.  

Basically using OBP for Gallo makes him an elite power bat *without* the huge drawback in the 5th category.  

Drives me nuts how people on here look at his AVG and just irrationally hate.

 

The reason Paxton should be out is that what he is doing is deciding what the biggest difference between the keeper price and the price it would likely be to redraft is.  That number will be bigger for Gallo and LeClerc than Paxton.  Hell it will probably be bigger for Villar than Paxton.  Is Paxton arguably the most valuable player of the 4?  Yes.  However, keeping a cheaper player who is more undervalued will allow for a greater improvement to the team elsewhere.

Edited by LJJr

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No way you take a closer in a 12 team keep 3.    Gallo is the choice here without a question.

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43 minutes ago, LJJr said:

 

No his OBP isn't elite becuase of his average... but his OBP is almost exactly league average.  League average is *worlds* better then his batting average which is quite poor.  The delta between his AVG and OBP is elite, so if he can get even a smallish bump in his AVG it moves his OBP from league average to above league average/good.  

Basically using OBP for Gallo makes him an elite power bat *without* the huge drawback in the 5th category.  

Drives me nuts how people on here look at his AVG and just irrationally hate.

 

The reason Paxton should be out is that what he is doing is deciding what the biggest difference between the keeper price and the price it would likely be to redraft is.  That number will be bigger for Gallo and LeClerc than Paxton.  Hell it will probably be bigger for Villar than Paxton.  Is Paxton arguably the most valuable player of the 4?  Yes.  However, keeping a cheaper player who is more undervalued will allow for a greater improvement to the team elsewhere.

Until he regress a bit, his bat slows a bit and he becomes Adam Dunn, Chris Davis, Chris Carter, etc when they fell off a cliff (at age 31 for the first 2, at age 30 for Carter).  That might be 4-5 years from now for Gallo, but Gallo is a fundamentally flawed player in the 3 true outcome mode (k, walk or HR).  200+ ks, 200 avg...it is not going to take much for that to turn ugly in a hurry.  His OPS (810) and OPS+ (107) both went down last season and are not what you would call elite either to say the least.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, secretagentman said:

Until he regress a bit, his bat slows a bit and he becomes Adam Dunn, Chris Davis, Chris Carter, etc when they fell off a cliff (at age 31 for the first 2, at age 30 for Carter).  That might be 4-5 years from now for Gallo, but Gallo is a fundamentally flawed player in the 3 true outcome mode (k, walk or HR).  200+ ks, 200 avg...it is not going to take much for that to turn ugly in a hurry.  His OPS (810) and OPS+ (107) both went down last season and are not what you would call elite either to say the least.

 

Chris Carter, Chris Davis, Adam Dunn all had useful fantasy stretches.  "That might be 4-5 years from now" to quote you.  We are talking about next year in this thread, I doubt OP cares about a maybe that is 5 years from now.  You might be right, you might not.  I see no reason to expect a decline next year.  In fact I see reason to expect a bit of a bump.  His xAVG the past two years was higher than his actual average by ~20-25 points.  If you look at his line drive %, exit velocity and batted ball profile I see an average that while not *good* has a great chance of being a bit better.  Next year.  I don't care about 5 years from now and I doubt OP does either.

 

If he bumps his avg up to the .225 mark that ought to bump his obp up accordingly as well...say .340.  That's not a liability. Based on the data I see in his profile that's a not unlikely outcome.  I don't see anything to suggest a regression (again next year) is likely.  

 

Also the 5 year track record on relievers isn't amazing either.  If you want to play the "maybe in 5 years game"  what do you think the odds are Paxton has a significant injury by the time he's 35?  

Edited by LJJr

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2 hours ago, LJJr said:

Also the 5 year track record on relievers isn't amazing either.  If you want to play the "maybe in 5 years game"  what do you think the odds are Paxton has a significant injury by the time he's 35?  

I would not bet Paxton stays healthy in the next 5 weeks let alone years lol.  Besides the point though.  Apples to oranges.  No one doubts Paxton's ability when healthy.

As to Gallo improving...maybe but again players do not fit molds and the 4-5 years I noted with the others were examples.  Adam Dunn and Chris Davis were better in their prime than Gallo probably is ever going to be.  Carter is another matter as he basically is more analogous imo.  I still think he could go at any time...maybe not this year.  I just hate guys like this and do not want them on my team.  There are better players to go after for cheap power imo.

 

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