urban2014

Omar Narvaez 2019 Outlook

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The Catcher for the Seattle Mariners, might be something here

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There's definitely some theoretical upside here, not sure how good he is but he's one of my favorite punts at catcher

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11 hours ago, al3x said:

How much playing time should we see?

 

Most likely a normal starting catcher role. He's the clear starter.

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In the wasteland that is catchers this year, he looks somewhat promising. Last year he had .275 ave, 9 home runs, 30 rbi, 30 runs, a wOBA of .348 and a wrc+ of 122 in 97 games. He had similar stats for the White Sox in 2017.  The move from the White Sox to Seattle gives him a starting role. I'm keeping an eye on him.

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He getting playing time. He is out today, but has played in 11 of Seattle''s 15 games.

Narvaez is hitting .342 with two home runs over his last 38 at-bats. He has 11 strikeouts  2 walks and 13 hits in 47 AtBats. 

Over the final four months of 2018, Narvaez hit .315/.401/.502 with nine home runs in 203 at-bats. I had him on my team at the end of 2018. But Chicago was not giving him much playing time. 

Being the primary catcher on a hot Seattle team, I think he is worth a shot. We are in a one catcher league and did not get drafted. So he is still on the waiver wire.  He is doing way better than Danny Jansen or Posey. So I think he will get picked up in our league  Monday when we have our waiver/DL day for the beginning of period 2.

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Well he’s no Mr Excitement but he plays quite a bit and isn’t totally clueless with a bat. He went yard tonight which almost feels like stealing from such wretched position. In any event I’m happy to own him at this point because it could be a lot worse heh.

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Here's what I wrote on him a while back:

On 1/16/2019 at 3:36 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

So in 2019 we're looking at about 8 catchers who will be drafted in the first 150 picks and then a giant pile of who cares.  When it comes to C, you either aim for one of the top 8 or you wait.  This post is for those who wait and thanks to @murraygd13 for reminding me about this dude a few posts back.


Deep sleeper: Omar Narvaez (C - SEA)

 

1. Narvaez current ADP via NFBC is 341.61 and he's C25.  So in a standard 12 team league he's being taken in round 28.  So not at all. 

2. He has a starting job in SEA and no real competition (David Freitas is the other SEA catcher).  Keep in mind that SEA dealt their set-up guy Colome for Narvaez, so he's definitely going to get the chance for a full season of catcher ABs.

3. He will hit in the lower third of the order, but likely in the 7 spot and possibly even the 6 spot if he hits well enough.  RosterResource says he'll have Domingo Santana, Seager, EE, Bruce, Haniger, and M Smith in front of him, and T Beckham and Gordon behind.  Not great, but not terrible either.

4. In 634 MLB ABs, Narvaez holds a .274 AVG, .366 OBP, .379 SLG.  He walks around 12% of the time and Ks around 18%.  Other than the SLG, those are sexy numbers and are largely consistent with his minor league production.

5. He spreads the ball evenly: Pull/Cent/Opp 34/37/28, but he's not hitting very hard (or soft): Soft/Med/Hard 18/53/28.

 

Steamer projection: 414 PA, .249/.332 - 7 HR - 39 RBI - 41 R - 2 SB

BaseballReference proj: 391 PA, .268/.354 - 8 HR - 33 RBI - 38 R - 1 SB

 

I think he gets those PA/ABs, but I fail to see the logic behind Steamer's AVG/OBP projection.  I say he goes: .270/.360 - 7 HR - 45 RBI - 40 R.  When you're gambling for a C you want a guy who won't hurt you and Narvaez is just that: a C that can hit for AVG.  If you're in an OBP league or points league it's even better.  Keep in mind that the bunch of catchers are all projected for a 7 - 40 - 40 line, but most hit .250 or lower.  Narvaez is a sneaky play late in the draft.

 

Looks like the power is showing up a bit more than I anticipated.  This said, he's walking less (7.2%) and K-ing more (23.2%).  Still, those aren't bad for the late round C fliers.  .270/.360 - 15 - 60 - 60 is my updated prediction.

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Soo hes already blown those power projections out of the water...what do you project as a realistic ROS statline after his scorching hot start? Is 25 bombs a possibility or has he been lucky

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Anyone concur that Omar is really under-appreciated this year? He doesn't pile up the RBI or doubles, but these are his MLB ranks among catchers:

Hits - 4th
Runs - 3rd
HR - 6th (tie)
OBP - 4th among catchers with min 200 ABs

At such an insanely thin position, consistency in avg/obp and a little pop have him in solidly in the top 5 IMO. 

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10 minutes ago, LoGo said:

Anyone concur that Omar is really under-appreciated this year? He doesn't pile up the RBI or doubles, but these are his MLB ranks among catchers:

Hits - 4th
Runs - 3rd
HR - 6th (tie)
OBP - 4th among catchers with min 200 ABs

At such an insanely thin position, consistency in avg/obp and a little pop have him in solidly in the top 5 IMO. 

 

Criminally underrated as i just got an offer for him for Bobby Bradley, in a two catcher league. 

BUT as far your sentiment regarding catcher scarcity, its probably better than its been in quite some time....https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/catcher-is-a-wasteland-no-longer/

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17 hours ago, arthurpete said:

 

Criminally underrated as i just got an offer for him for Bobby Bradley, in a two catcher league. 

BUT as far your sentiment regarding catcher scarcity, its probably better than its been in quite some time....https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/catcher-is-a-wasteland-no-longer/

 

Ya I own both he and WRamos in a 12 teamer (one catcher) and they have really little trade value as everyone has decent enough catching options themselves. 

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On 8/6/2019 at 11:15 AM, rag9876 said:

What's with all the Sits late last week? 

 

3 of the last 4, 6 of the last 11

7/28 VS LHP (Boyd)
7/30 VS RHP (Jurado)
8/2 VS LHP (Miley)
8/7 VS LHP (Lucchesi)
8/9 VS LHP (Beeks)
8/11 VS LHP (Yarbrough)


His OPS is 67 points lower (.848 to .781) and his average is 32 points lower (.296 to .264) vs LHP, but are those numbers really bad enough to platoon him to the point where he's sitting >50% of the time? Tom Murphy is hitting lefties well, so might carry on through the remainder of the season.

M's go against Boyd tonight, so expect him to ride the pine again.

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On 8/6/2019 at 11:15 AM, rag9876 said:

What's with all the Sits late last week? 

 

He and Murphy are pretty much on a straight platoon at this point. On a rare occasion they play them both, with 1 at DH. Just gotta live with it. Murphy is actually hitting well and neither are worth a s--- on defense so Seattle is playing the odds. 

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Any news on his back. 2 C league, gotta do something with my playoffs...

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