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Latavius Murray 2019 Outlook

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Signed with Saints. Looks like Ingrams replacement.

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Just now, joebaker23 said:

Hurts Kamara’s value now:/ was looking forward to him being a 3 down back.

Kamara will still get his. 

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Sure, why not.   Seems fine as a complimentary piece, and doesn't scare me as a Kamara investor.   I liked Kamara's efficiency without insane volume, so this is fine.  

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6 minutes ago, joebaker23 said:

Hurts Kamara’s value now:/ was looking forward to him being a 3 down back.

 

I thinkit increases kamaras value given that murray is not a better rb than ingram on this offense.

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I thinkit increases kamaras value given that murray is not a better rb than ingram on this offense.

 

Yep.  Kamara's had two great seasons riding alongside Ingram.   Murray's even less of a threat here.   He also looks like he's getting paid enough that he is the end of their Ingram replacement search.    

Only real concern is that they give Murray goal line carries- he's had that role in the past.   Kamara's done well punching in TD's though, so there's logic to keeping that in the game plan

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Murray will be that week's hot waiver pickup if Kamara gets injured, but otherwise this signing seems to say the Saints feel comfortable with Kamara in an expanded workhorse role.  It's not going to be worth it to roster Latavius and hope he punches in a TD here and there.

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1 hour ago, eg4190 said:

Murray will be that week's hot waiver pickup if Kamara gets injured, but otherwise this signing seems to say the Saints feel comfortable with Kamara in an expanded workhorse role.  It's not going to be worth it to roster Latavius and hope he punches in a TD here and there.

Murray has 14 TD's over the last two season's for a poor offense. I can easily see him with 10+ TD's this season

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34 minutes ago, phegotgame14 said:

Murray has 14 TD's over the last two season's for a poor offense. I can easily see him with 10+ TD's this season

 

Yeah but he did that behind a starter who was constantly injured, first with a torn ACL early in 2017 and then with a never-ending hamstring injury in 2018.  After the Vikings Week 10 bye last year, which is when Cook finally got healthy, Murray had 6 out of 7 games under 4 fantasy points with 1 TD.  

If Kamara gets injured at any point in 2019, Murray should easily return RB2 value.  I don't think he's going to score 10 TDs with Kamara healthy.  If they wanted to use a secondary back like that they would have just paid Ingram.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, eg4190 said:

 

Yeah but he did that behind a starter who was constantly injured, first with a torn ACL early in 2017 and then with a never-ending hamstring injury in 2018.  After the Vikings Week 10 bye last year, which is when Cook finally got healthy, Murray had 6 out of 7 games under 4 fantasy points with 1 TD.  

If Kamara gets injured at any point in 2019, Murray should easily return RB2 value.  I don't think he's going to score 10 TDs with Kamara healthy.  If they wanted to use a secondary back like that they would have just paid Ingram.

 

Perhaps they just thought they could get the same production from Murray as they did from Ingram cheaper. Kamara will be fine, he's super efficient. He will def lose some GL carries IMO.

Edited by dmb3684
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On 3/12/2019 at 4:01 PM, eg4190 said:

If they wanted to use a secondary back like that they would have just paid Ingram.

Probably, though I suspect Murray was much cheaper.  I'm guessing they lean on Kamara more, but not too heavily; Murray will get some work, but I think his value is mostly as a handcuff, not a guy who will put up enough points that you'd want to start him.

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27 minutes ago, bomont said:

Probably, though I suspect Murray was much cheaper.  I'm guessing they lean on Kamara more, but not too heavily; Murray will get some work, but I think his value is mostly as a handcuff, not a guy who will put up enough points that you'd want to start him.

 

Latavius Murray signed a 4 year, $14,400,000 contract with the New Orleans Saints, including a $3,400,000 signing bonus, $7,200,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $3,600,000.

Mark Ingram signed a 3 year, $15,000,000 contract with the Baltimore Ravens, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $6,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,000,000.

Digging deeper Murray counts 12.5 million against the cap through 2 years then they can move on or have him for dirt cheap in his age 30 and 31 seasons, while Ingram counts 9.6 against the cap through 2 years and also the Ravens can move on in year 3 of the deal which would be Ingram's 31 year old season. I'd bet a fair amount of money if someone knows of a site that takes this action that Ingram will not be a Raven (at least at that price, maybe gets reworked) in 2021 and if so through 2020 the Saints are investing more in Murray then the Ravens are in Ingram so I would have to feel like Sean Payton likes something in Murray especially for the next 2 seasons.

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Dude gets zero love... I'll happily grab him on all my teams 

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18 minutes ago, turner46 said:

through 2020 the Saints are investing more in Murray then the Ravens are in Ingram (*1) so I would have to feel like Sean Payton likes something in Murray (*2) especially for the next 2 seasons.

I inserted 2 footnotes:

(*1) It's essentially the same.

(*2) What does the Ravens contract have to do with Murray? Payton claims Ingram was suddenly gone (might well be true) and it doesn't sound like they had extensive negotiations with Ingram. It certainly doesn't sound as if they were negotiating with both, and decided to go with Murray for slightly more money.

It seems to me Ingram didn't like his situation in NO and moved on; Payton was still happy to have a veteran and signed Murray, at what happens to be a similar amount, because that's pretty much market value (*3).

(*3) As a team, I would never ever invest 10M in an 30yo RB. Give me the 22yo rookie every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But that's a different discussion.

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22 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

Latavius Murray signed a 4 year, $14,400,000 contract with the New Orleans Saints, including a $3,400,000 signing bonus, $7,200,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $3,600,000.

Mark Ingram signed a 3 year, $15,000,000 contract with the Baltimore Ravens, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $6,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,000,000.

Digging deeper Murray counts 12.5 million against the cap through 2 years then they can move on or have him for dirt cheap in his age 30 and 31 seasons, while Ingram counts 9.6 against the cap through 2 years and also the Ravens can move on in year 3 of the deal which would be Ingram's 31 year old season. I'd bet a fair amount of money if someone knows of a site that takes this action that Ingram will not be a Raven (at least at that price, maybe gets reworked) in 2021 and if so through 2020 the Saints are investing more in Murray then the Ravens are in Ingram so I would have to feel like Sean Payton likes something in Murray especially for the next 2 seasons.

 

Just to make sure the ages are correct...after two years, Murray's final two years of his contract would be his ages 31 and 32 seasons (not 30 and 31). Ingram is only 28 days older than Murray. 

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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

I inserted 2 footnotes:

(*1) It's essentially the same.

(*2) What does the Ravens contract have to do with Murray? Payton claims Ingram was suddenly gone (might well be true) and it doesn't sound like they had extensive negotiations with Ingram. It certainly doesn't sound as if they were negotiating with both, and decided to go with Murray for slightly more money.

It seems to me Ingram didn't like his situation in NO and moved on; Payton was still happy to have a veteran and signed Murray, at what happens to be a similar amount, because that's pretty much market value (*3).

(*3) As a team, I would never ever invest 10M in an 30yo RB. Give me the 22yo rookie every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But that's a different discussion.

 

The thing is, it seems like Ingram moved into a situation that could give him fewer touches, between Edwards and Hill taking touches along with LJax. Part of me wonders if the Ravens gave him some assurances about touch percentage. Otherwise, would he have preferred to stay in NOLA? Unless he just didn't like Payton and/or others in the organization, which is highly possible. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

The thing is, it seems like Ingram moved into a situation that could give him fewer touches, between Edwards and Hill taking touches along with LJax. Part of me wonders if the Ravens gave him some assurances about touch percentage. Otherwise, would he have preferred to stay in NOLA? Unless he just didn't like Payton and/or others in the organization, which is highly possible. 

I can't look into Ingram's mind, but if I'm a 30yo RB, I'm looking for:

- a good contract that will take care of my pension
- a decent amount of touches: enough to have fun, not enough to be a cripple after the season
- respect. Maybe even some love.

The third one may well be a deciding factor.

Edited by Boudewijn
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Murray is a solid but not special piece of a RBBC.  I’m watching Ozigbo carefully this PS/TC because I think there might be some “it” factor there.  He’s got the size, speed, and athleticism to fit the role that Murray figures to fill, but he’ll come a whole lot cheaper to NO for the next few years if he pans out.

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56 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Murray is a solid but not special piece of a RBBC.  I’m watching Ozigbo carefully this PS/TC because I think there might be some “it” factor there.  He’s got the size, speed, and athleticism to fit the role that Murray figures to fill, but he’ll come a whole lot cheaper to NO for the next few years if he pans out.

Basically agree with this.  Main difference I see between Murray now and Ingram the last couple years, is that Ingram was a fully plausible RB1 if Kamara went down and often was a RB1 even when Kamara wasn't down.  I don't see Murray as an RB1 even if Kamara were to be IR'd. 

And Murray's main "issue" now is that James White and Tarik Cohen are both in close ADP range and I'd rather have either of those guys.  

11 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

Dude gets zero love... I'll happily grab him on all my teams 

So basically he's Lamar Miller but about a round later. You could do worse for a RB2 if you go WR or TE early, or a good Flex guy who if you want/need a guy who won't get you a zero any given week but also typically offers low upside variance with maybe a TD here and there.  

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12 hours ago, turner46 said:

 

Latavius Murray signed a 4 year, $14,400,000 contract with the New Orleans Saints, including a $3,400,000 signing bonus, $7,200,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $3,600,000.

 

Follow the money!  Saints aren't paying Murray this kind of money to hold Kamara's towel all year.  If they wanted to let Kamara run with a big increase in touches they could have filled out the depth chart with JAGs for next to nothing.  

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Any word on his goal-line role? He has had a lot of success in that area in his career.

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Just sayin, kamara has played two full seasons without missing a game. What are the chances of making it three straight? Murray might be the out of nowhere RB1 this season. 

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12 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

Any word on his goal-line role? He has had a lot of success in that area in his career.

 

Both backs will get a lot of goal line carries, the Saints mix it up but they lead the league in goal line TDs last year I believe (or at least rushing TDs).

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1 minute ago, Ryansm11 said:

Just sayin, kamara has played two full seasons without missing a game. What are the chances of making it three straight? Murray might be the out of nowhere RB1 this season. 

 

So now NON-injury prone players are injury prone? 

 

LOL, NO ONE IS SAFE

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