ajs723

Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

This guy is basically the same size as Aaron Jones, so I dunno if he's exactly too small, or anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Corleone said:

So your take is that Duke Johnson's stats are inflated because he was facing a soft defensive box and the defense was playing the pass...
...even though the majority of his runs of 10+ yards were on 1st or 2nd down.

More specifically, 20 of the 39 runs for 10+ yards were on 1st and 10.

So even though that's a traditional run down, defenses were just allowing Duke to face less defenders than a "running running back" because Duke is a "passing running back"? And they were doing that even when the Browns weren't losing?

Because half of those runs - 10 of 20 - were when the Browns were either leading or tied in the game. Of the other 10 carries, 5 came when the score was within a touchdown or less. But despite those actual game situations that Duke faced (versus any generalities), the defenses were just daring Duke to run free?

Towards the question you asked me, yes, I am comfortable with that type of draft pick (6th round, creeping towards 5th). Duke has already been an RB1 in fantasy, in 2017. I think in 2019 he can be at least a solid RB2 (and perhaps more) in Houston, for reasons and projections I've already mentioned in this thread. There's no guarantees it will work out. I'm not at all assuming that he maintains his very good efficiency, as that will likely decline somewhat. But with greater volume and a drop from very good efficiency to good efficiency, he can still be an asset IMO. 

 

Yes.  Unless it's 3rd and short, defenses will play the pass vs Duke in the backfield.

It's not specific to just Duke, it's the nature of being a specialist in the league.  Defenses game plan all week long.  A career high of 14 means that the defense got gouged less than once a game.  So statistically speaking, playing the pass against Duke means they give up maybe 1 big (10+) per game.  That's an easy sacrifice.

40 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I looked up every one of the RB's you mentioned, to see how it worked out once these RB's were thrust into a full time role.

To start, Cohen, White, Vereen & Gerhart never have been the lead RB to date, so we can eliminate all 4 of them from the discussion.
Let's tackle the other 4 players...

Dion Lewis
--First 4 years of his career, his career-high in carries was 64.
--Then in 2017, he was the lead RB, receiving 180 carries. 
--He put up a 180 - 896 (5.0 YPC) rushing line. He was the #13 RB in PPR (after being the #58 RB in ADP).

Jerick McKinnon
--First 2 years of his career, his career-high in carries was 113.
--Then in 2016, he was the lead RB, receiving 159 carries.
--He put up a 159 - 539 (3.4 YPC) rushing line. That seems ugly. But he was still the #26 RB in PPR (after being the #52 RB in ADP).

Andre Ellington
--First season of his career, his career-high in carries was 118.
--Then in 2014, he was the lead RB, receiving 201 carries.
--He put up a 201 - 660 (3.3 YPC) rushing line. That seems ugly. But he was still the #19 RB in PPR (after being the #11 RB in ADP).

CJ Spiller
--First 2 seasons of his career, his career-high in carries was 113.
--Then in 2012, he was the lead RB, receiving 207 carries.
--He put up a 207 - 1244 (6.0 YPC) rushing line. Wow! He was the #6 RB in PPR (after being the #25 RB in ADP).

So the guys you mention as examples of needing to proceed with caution, 3 of 4 were major successes by their end-of-season rank compared to ADP. Ellington was 8 spots off based on his ADP, but he still was an RB2. 

 

No offense, I appreciate your posts and analysis, as I value the statistical side of fantasy football more than the vast majority of this forum... However all this does is solidify to me that you haven't been playing fantasy football for more than 2 years.

While you may fool some of the casual posters, the veterans here will all know what I'm talking about.  You're just looking at past stats and assuming what was a full time role based on total touches.  You don't remember Gerhart, or Vereen getting drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds.  You don't remember which year CJ Spiller actually became a lead back(2013) and which year F.Jax was just injured and missing games(2012).  Spinning McKinnons 159\539 and Ellington's 201\660 as good RB seasons as a lead back... Speaks for itself.

I trust the people reading know which of us is using stats as facts, and which of us is using football as facts, with stats to back it up.  A very important difference to discern.

 

Best of luck to you and to Duke.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Yes.  Unless it's 3rd and short, defenses will play the pass vs Duke in the backfield.

It's not specific to just Duke, it's the nature of being a specialist in the league.  Defenses game plan all week long.  A career high of 14 means that the defense got gouged less than once a game.  So statistically speaking, playing the pass against Duke means they give up maybe 1 big (10+) per game.  That's an easy sacrifice.

 

No offense, I appreciate your posts and analysis, as I value the statistical side of fantasy football more than the vast majority of this forum... However all this does is solidify to me that you haven't been playing fantasy football for more than 2 years.

While you may fool some of the casual posters, the veterans here will all know what I'm talking about.  You're just looking at past stats and assuming what was a full time role based on total touches.  You don't remember Gerhart, or Vereen getting drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds.  You don't remember which year CJ Spiller actually became a lead back(2013) and which year F.Jax was just injured and missing games(2012).  Spinning McKinnons 159\539 and Ellington's 201\660 as good RB seasons as a lead back... Speaks for itself.

I trust the people reading know which of us is using stats as facts, and which of us is using football as facts, with stats to back it up.  A very important difference to discern.

 

Best of luck to you and to Duke.

 

 

Lmao. “Hasn’t been playing for longer than 2 years.” So you’re “that guy” huh. Great analysis bruh. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

Lmao. “Hasn’t been playing for longer than 2 years.” So you’re “that guy” huh. Great analysis bruh. 

 

Typically I would agree with you.  Unfortunately for THIS specific debate, it's the equivalent of telling someone World War 3 won't happen because WW1 and 2 never did.

Everyone starts somewhere, but if the discussion at hand is 100% rooted in the past success or failures of similar RBs and you don't know who those RBs are or when they took lead back roles... It's impossible to have any ground to stand on.  He's trying to disprove facts, with years of data that literally don't apply, and by erasing names of the list because he wasn't around when they were being drafted\hyped as starters.  That's extremely relevant.

His FFB experience, or lack thereof, does NOT disqualify him from analysis for 95% of most discussions.  But for this very specific one, it really, really, matters.  I genuinely meant it when I said I appreciate his stats, analysis, and posts.  Sadly the current discussion requires more than just past stats.  Sorry if logic offends you.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Typically I would agree with you.  Unfortunately for THIS specific debate, it's the equivalent of telling someone World War 3 won't happen because WW1 and 2 never did.

Everyone starts somewhere, but if the discussion at hand is 100% rooted in the past success or failures of similar RBs and you don't know who those RBs are or when they took lead back roles... It's impossible to have any ground to stand on.  He's trying to disprove facts, with years of data that literally don't apply, and by erasing names of the list because he wasn't around when they were being drafted\hyped as starters.  That's extremely relevant.

His FFB experience, or lack thereof, does NOT disqualify him from analysis for 95% of most discussions.  But for this very specific one, it really, really, matters.  I genuinely meant it when I said I appreciate his stats, analysis, and posts.  Sadly the current discussion requires more than just past stats.  Sorry if logic offends you.

 

Except that you use no logic, or should I say, statistical analysis, in your argument. It seems to me statistics only matter to you if it fits your narrative. In this particular case, you’ve completely dismissed the fact that the game has changed dramatically. Since you apparently have been playing for “longer than 2 years” you would probably know this. You’re also ignoring the fact, or at least haven’t mentioned, that Duke is coming from probably one of the worst run franchises in the last 10 years. From inept coaches, to personnel decisions, you name it, they’ve been horrible (however, finally turning around). Just b/c a s---y franchise utilized him as a COP back, doesn’t mean that’s all Duke is. You’ve obviously already pigeon-holed him as such. 

 

But hey, you keep being that guy. You obviously seem to enjoy it. 

 

Edited by Sonny_D
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

No offense, I appreciate your posts and analysis, as I value the statistical side of fantasy football more than the vast majority of this forum... However all this does is solidify to me that you haven't been playing fantasy football for more than 2 years.

While you may fool some of the casual posters, the veterans here will all know what I'm talking about.  You're just looking at past stats and assuming what was a full time role based on total touches.  You don't remember Gerhart, or Vereen getting drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds.  You don't remember which year CJ Spiller actually became a lead back(2013) and which year F.Jax was just injured and missing games(2012).  Spinning McKinnons 159\539 and Ellington's 201\660 as good RB seasons as a lead back... Speaks for itself.

I trust the people reading know which of us is using stats as facts, and which of us is using football as facts, with stats to back it up.  A very important difference to discern.

Best of luck to you and to Duke.

Now why would I possibly take offense to that comment? I don't need to prove myself to you or anyone else, but the fact of the matter is you are 100% wrong.

I began playing fantasy in 2000 and I specifically remember that as the year, because it was McNabb's first full season as an NFL starter (which I remember because I went to Syracuse at the same time as McNabb). 

And your comment on Spiller is truly something else. You're saying Spiller didn't actually become a lead back in 2012 because Fred Jackson was injured that year? Doesn't that go against the very comment you made when bringing Spiller up? You know, when you said "But if Dion Lewis, James White, Tarik Cohen, (Ellington, Vereen, Spiller, Gerhart, McKinnon the list literally goes forever) suddenly get thrust into a full time role... Proceed with caution, the odds are against you."

As for McKinnon and Ellington, I specifically stated that their lines seem ugly. And then mentioned their actual rank in PPR fantasy football.. Because I took it that you realized that stats for a RB include more than just their rushing lines. 

As for Gerhart, as I stated in a prior post, he should not have been included amongst a group of passing backs. 

But keep patting yourself on the back for being a "veteran" and making false assumptions about others.

Edited by Corleone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kmoore1521 said:

6th round all day for me and id be excited about it

 

Even top of the 6th? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
Just now, scheibler said:

 

Even top of the 6th? 

 

12 teams PPR def, Standard ehh not as excited haha

 

14 teams.....yes 

Edited by kmoore1521

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Corleone said:

I looked up every one of the RB's you mentioned, to see how it worked out once these RB's were thrust into a full time role.

To start, Cohen, White, Vereen & Gerhart never have been the lead RB to date, so we can eliminate all 4 of them from the discussion.
Let's tackle the other 4 players...

Dion Lewis
--First 4 years of his career, his career-high in carries was 64.
--Then in 2017, he was the lead RB, receiving 180 carries. 
--He put up a 180 - 896 (5.0 YPC) rushing line. He was the #13 RB in PPR (after being the #58 RB in ADP).

Jerick McKinnon
--First 2 years of his career, his career-high in carries was 113.
--Then in 2016, he was the lead RB, receiving 159 carries.
--He put up a 159 - 539 (3.4 YPC) rushing line. That seems ugly. But he was still the #26 RB in PPR (after being the #52 RB in ADP).

Andre Ellington
--First season of his career, his career-high in carries was 118.
--Then in 2014, he was the lead RB, receiving 201 carries.
--He put up a 201 - 660 (3.3 YPC) rushing line. That seems ugly. But he was still the #19 RB in PPR (after being the #11 RB in ADP).

CJ Spiller
--First 2 seasons of his career, his career-high in carries was 113.
--Then in 2012, he was the lead RB, receiving 207 carries.
--He put up a 207 - 1244 (6.0 YPC) rushing line. Wow! He was the #6 RB in PPR (after being the #25 RB in ADP).

So the guys you mention as examples of needing to proceed with caution, 3 of 4 were major successes by their end-of-season rank compared to ADP. Ellington was 8 spots off based on his ADP, but he still was an RB2. 

 

This is misleading.  I suggest you look at their game logs.

Dion Lewis was not a lead back in 2017, and certainly wasn't drafted as such.  He was their best back, but he was in a timeshare all year with Gilleslee and Burkhead.  Most expected Gilleslee to be the guy to own, as LeGarrette Blount had left and they though GIlleslee would get his 18 TDs.  Really, only the last 2 games of the season was workhorse volume.  Look at the game logs.

Jerick McKinnon was terrible in 2016.  He had like 2 good games and the other 14 were hot garbage.  They drafted Dalvin Cook because they knew McKinnon couldn't cut it as a lead back.

Ellington was decent from a fantasy perspective in 2014, but mainly because of his receiving supplemented his inefficient running.  The following year, he was relegated back to a COP role, since he clearly wasn't cut out to be a lead back.

CJ Spiller - your version is revisionist history.  During 2012, Spiller was in a rotation with Fred Jackson and Tashard Choice.  If you look at the game logs, it's pretty clear.  He had 207 carries in 2012 and played all 16 games, so we're talking less than 13 carries per game.  Yes he had a big year, but nobody thought he was a full timer in the preseason and he certainly wasn't drafted as such.  It was 2013 when Jackson was gone and Spiller was anointed the workhorse, and he was being drafted in the first round in fantasy.  He flopped in 2013.

So, of the 4 you evaluated, 1 of them was actually never thrust into a lead back role, and the other 3 proved that they could NOT handle it.

Edited by Brownsfan74
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They need depth. No way they don't make a move. This team is trying to win, especially with the Luck retirement, and an easy path to a div title. What if they got Jordan Howard from the Eagles? A team with a ton of rb depth and high draft picks who would love to strengthen their D. (Clowney) 🤐

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, FantasyGOAT said:

They need depth. No way they don't make a move. This team is trying to win, especially with the Luck retirement, and an easy path to a div title. What if they got Jordan Howard from the Eagles? A team with a ton of rb depth and high draft picks who would love to strengthen their D. (Clowney) 🤐

 

It would be shocking if they stood pat with Duke and a bunch of rookies.  The current discussion on Duke should be rendered moot within the next couple weeks.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Brownsfan74 said:

 

It would be shocking if they stood pat with Duke and a bunch of rookies.  The current discussion on Duke should be rendered moot within the next couple weeks.

I agree. He could quickly go from value to reach with one move, but he still does have upside in this O. Personally, I feel he is being drafted too high as it is with no moves made by the Texans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, FantasyGOAT said:

They need depth. No way they don't make a move. This team is trying to win, especially with the Luck retirement, and an easy path to a div title. What if they got Jordan Howard from the Eagles? A team with a ton of rb depth and high draft picks who would love to strengthen their D. (Clowney) 🤐

Agreed. I think Duke is capable of taking on lead back duties, and I still think they should sign another guy, especially with some veterans that have proven effective in the past on the market.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Yes.  Unless it's 3rd and short, defenses will play the pass vs Duke in the backfield.

It's not specific to just Duke, it's the nature of being a specialist in the league.  Defenses game plan all week long.  A career high of 14 means that the defense got gouged less than once a game.  So statistically speaking, playing the pass against Duke means they give up maybe 1 big (10+) per game.  That's an easy sacrifice.

 

No offense, I appreciate your posts and analysis, as I value the statistical side of fantasy football more than the vast majority of this forum... However all this does is solidify to me that you haven't been playing fantasy football for more than 2 years.

While you may fool some of the casual posters, the veterans here will all know what I'm talking about.  You're just looking at past stats and assuming what was a full time role based on total touches.  You don't remember Gerhart, or Vereen getting drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds.  You don't remember which year CJ Spiller actually became a lead back(2013) and which year F.Jax was just injured and missing games(2012).  Spinning McKinnons 159\539 and Ellington's 201\660 as good RB seasons as a lead back... Speaks for itself.

I trust the people reading know which of us is using stats as facts, and which of us is using football as facts, with stats to back it up.  A very important difference to discern.

 

Best of luck to you and to Duke.

 

The first year I ever played fantasy I knew Gerhart was gonna be a bust, and I knew very little about the game.

If anyone bought into Gerhart... well then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The only guy that would really sink the Duke ship would be Melvin Gordon. I don't see Houston making that size of a move when they also really need help at OT. Who cares if they pickup Ajayi or Hyde ... those guys suck. Watching Hyde this preseason has made my eyes bleed.

Whatever you think about Duke, there aren't really a lot of RBs available for the Texans that are upgrades on him right now.

Edited by LongBalls
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Agreed. I think Duke is capable of taking on lead back duties, and I still think they should sign another guy, especially with some veterans that have proven effective in the past on the market.

HOU seems uninterested in Ajayi so that means they're likely out on lesser talents currently in FA like Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, etc.   I can't see why they'd refuse to sign those guys because they were waiting on someone like Carlos Hyde to be cut.  Most likely they're hoping Shady gets cut and they sign him.  I guess fallback plan would be someone like Dixon, TJ Yeldon, whoever gets cut from the Eagles RB room (Smallwood, Clement, Adams), perhaps Mostert?  I can't see how the Texans roll into the regular season with Duke and a bunch of randoms as his backup, they're not a tanking team and likely have delusions of being a SB contender with Luck having retired.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:

You’re also ignoring the fact, or at least haven’t mentioned, that Duke is coming from probably one of the worst run franchises in the last 10 years. From inept coaches, to personnel decisions, you name it, they’ve been horrible (however, finally turning around). Just b/c a s---y franchise utilized him as a COP back, doesn’t mean that’s all Duke is. You’ve obviously already pigeon-holed him as such.

 

You realize the Texans are a terribly run franchise, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jumper said:

HOU seems uninterested in Ajayi so that means they're likely out on lesser talents currently in FA like Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, etc.   I can't see why they'd refuse to sign those guys because they were waiting on someone like Carlos Hyde to be cut.  Most likely they're hoping Shady gets cut and they sign him.  I guess fallback plan would be someone like Dixon, TJ Yeldon, whoever gets cut from the Eagles RB room (Smallwood, Clement, Adams), perhaps Mostert?  I can't see how the Texans roll into the regular season with Duke and a bunch of randoms as his backup, they're not a tanking team and likely have delusions of being a SB contender with Luck having retired.

Thank you for posting a carbon copy of my post just 2 posts before yours. Great insight.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jumper said:

HOU seems uninterested in Ajayi so that means they're likely out on lesser talents currently in FA like Chris Ivory, Jeremy Hill, etc.   I can't see why they'd refuse to sign those guys because they were waiting on someone like Carlos Hyde to be cut.  Most likely they're hoping Shady gets cut and they sign him.  I guess fallback plan would be someone like Dixon, TJ Yeldon, whoever gets cut from the Eagles RB room (Smallwood, Clement, Adams), perhaps Mostert?  I can't see how the Texans roll into the regular season with Duke and a bunch of randoms as his backup, they're not a tanking team and likely have delusions of being a SB contender with Luck having retired.

O'Brien's been sniped 2-3 times in the first round alone by hoping for someone to fall into their laps on draft day, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're eyeing someone they covet more than the current free agent crop and simply trying to will it into existence. Would have to assume it's Shady if that's the case. But Duke is actually getting paid a fair bit relative to other running backs. I don't know what Houston is going to do. I don't think Houston knows what Houston is going to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone remember a 3rd down / satellite back that got put into a bellcow role and succeeded in it?  Was Maurice Jones-Drew ever just a 3rd down back?  I'm trying to come up with one but having trouble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in a keeper league i have a choice of Duke or D henry at RB in our first rd.  I have Cook, Mixon, and Freeman.  I think I like Duke's floor over Henry's ceiling.  I am probably nuts for not taking Henry in the 6th, or 1st.  I think Duke could be really good with more volume.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

This is misleading.  I suggest you look at their game logs.

Dion Lewis was not a lead back in 2017, and certainly wasn't drafted as such.  He was their best back, but he was in a timeshare all year with Gilleslee and Burkhead.  Most expected Gilleslee to be the guy to own, as LeGarrette Blount had left and they though GIlleslee would get his 18 TDs.  Really, only the last 2 games of the season was workhorse volume.  Look at the game logs.

Jerick McKinnon was terrible in 2016.  He had like 2 good games and the other 14 were hot garbage.  They drafted Dalvin Cook because they knew McKinnon couldn't cut it as a lead back.

Ellington was decent from a fantasy perspective in 2014, but mainly because of his receiving supplemented his inefficient running.  The following year, he was relegated back to a COP role, since he clearly wasn't cut out to be a lead back.

CJ Spiller - your version is revisionist history.  During 2012, Spiller was in a rotation with Fred Jackson and Tashard Choice.  If you look at the game logs, it's pretty clear.  He had 207 carries in 2012 and played all 16 games, so we're talking less than 13 carries per game.  Yes he had a big year, but nobody thought he was a full timer in the preseason and he certainly wasn't drafted as such.  It was 2013 when Jackson was gone and Spiller was anointed the workhorse, and he was being drafted in the first round in fantasy.  He flopped in 2013.

So, of the 4 you evaluated, 1 of them was actually never thrust into a lead back role, and the other 3 proved that they could NOT handle it.

I suggest you look at the game logs...

For Lewis, he received the most carries in 10 games and was tied for the lead in another. This was uninterrupted from Game 6 to Game 16.
Overall for the season, Lewis had 180 carries. Gillislee had 104. Burkhead had 64.
Saying that the "passing RB's" need to have been drafted as a lead RB is revisionist history. That was not part of the discussion at all.

For McKinnon, I have never said he was great in 2016. He wasn't. But he was not garbage for 14 games. He put forth 7 games that were okay to good in PPR (the format most people play in and the format which I have been referring to). 

For Ellington, yes, his receiving supplemented his inefficient running...and his receiving skill is one of the reasons he was drafted where he was. Rushing stats from a RB help your team in PPR. Receiving stats from a RB help your team in PPR. And the fact that he was relegated out of a lead role the following season is irrelevant to fantasy owners who had him in 2014.

For Spiller, he received the most carries in 8 games and was tied for the lead in another. 
Overall for the season, Spiller had 207 carries. Jackson had 115. Choice had 47. 
And again, stating he wasn't drafted as a full-timer does not prove your attempted point. He was drafted where he was (25th RB), was thrust into the lead, and ended up delivering huge value for his fantasy owners. 
If we cannot agree to call a season of 207 carries, in which Spiller had 45 more carries than Jackson/Choice combined, a case of being thrust into a lead role, then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Edited by Corleone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Does anyone remember a 3rd down / satellite back that got put into a bellcow role and succeeded in it?  Was Maurice Jones-Drew ever just a 3rd down back?  I'm trying to come up with one but having trouble.

That was a while ago. I think he sort of was? He was more of a change-of-pace guy though, with Taylor not really being a receiving threat at that point of his career. But MJD was always utilized pretty heavily though. He was also short enough to hide behind his o-line while weighing 210, so he was a pretty ideally built back imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I suggest you look at the game logs...

For Lewis, he received the most carries in 10 games and was tied for the lead in another. This was uninterrupted from Game 6 to Game 16.
Overall for the season, Lewis had 180 carries. Gillislee had 104. Burkhead had 64.
Saying that the "passing RB's" need to have been drafted as a lead RB is revisionist history. That was not part of the discussion at all.

For McKinnon, I have never said he was great in 2016. He wasn't. But he was not garbage for 14 games. He put forth 7 games that were okay to good in PPR (the format most people play in and the format which I have been referring to). 

For Ellington, yes, his receiving supplemented his inefficient running...and his receiving skills is one of the reasons he was drafted where he was. Rushing stats from a RB help your team in PPR. Receiving stats from a RB help your team in PPR. And the fact that he was relegated out of a lead role the following season is irrelevant to fantasy owners who had him in 2014.

For Spiller, he received the most carries in 8 games and was tied for the lead in another. 
Overall for the season, Spiller had 207 carries. Jackson had 115. Choice had 47. 
And again, stating he wasn't drafted as a full-timer does not prove your attempted point. He was drafted where he was (25th RB), was thrust into the lead, and ended up delivering huge value for his fantasy owners. 
If we cannot agree to call a season of 207 carries, in which Spiller had 45 more carries than Jackson/Choice combined, a case of being thrust into a lead role, then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

The point of this discussion is projecting what Duke Johnson will do as a bellcow and where he should be drafted right now, is it not?  So "when" this player became a bellcow is clearly relevant.

And the point is this....it's rare for a 3rd down back to get put into a fulltime role and succeed.  Lewis (arguably) was not in a fulltime role.  180 carries over a full season isn't a fulltime role in my eyes.  Certainly not what we would expect Duke to get with absolute no names behind him.  The other 3 flopped when put into that situation.  Each of the 3 were given a shot to be a bellcow, and the following season they were no longer bellcows.

You make a fair point about the difference between PPR and standard.  I play standard so McKinnon's year really was garbage, but we can agree to disagree on that.  I remember owning both Spiller in 2013 and McKinnon in 2016 and I hated them both with a passion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.