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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook

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44 minutes ago, Guwop said:

Hyde was traded for Martinas Rankin, who was drafted in the 3rd round of 2018 draft, so technically you could argue their investment in both players is equal.

 

I mean you could argue that but it'd be completely wrong since the Texans were going to cut Rankin before trading him away -> https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/08/31/texans-cut-2018-third-rounder-martinas-rankin/

 

45 minutes ago, Guwop said:

2017: Played all 16 games, finished 8th overall, with the 13th best PPG rate. 240/940/8 with another 59/350 receiving. 236 Fantasy Points, also RB11 last season.

 

Agreed, great fantasy season but a 3.9 YPC and 5.9 YPR are both below league average

 

50 minutes ago, Guwop said:

2018: With CLE, through his first 6 games, 2.5 of which came with Tyrod Taylor by the way before Browns made any offensive strides, he was RB16 with 382 yards rushing and 5TDs, on pace for 1,019/13, even with zero passing game involvement would have made him a top 20 back. (only 9 RBs last season rushed for over 1,000 yards)

 

Again, sure he might have squeaked over 1000 yards but he was averaging 3.3 YPC while Chubb and Duke both were over 5.

 

I don't think anyone can make the argument that Carlos Hyde is actually good at football, he's had a few okay fantasy seasons almost entirely based on volume. The fact is simply Duke Johnson is the better player and the Texans have shown that by actually giving up something of value for him vs picking Hyde off the trash heap.

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I don't have any Duke Johnson shares but I feel he'll do a nice job for Houston. I think he'll get the meaningful work which might only be RB2 level but unless you drafted him recently at his ADP highs you have to feel you have a bargain 

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38 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Draft was being held when Lamar ripped his knee.  Got Duke for $8.

I don’t know why. But this unsettled me. 

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I feel I overdrafted. Got him as the RB23 and my RB3 on my roster. Does he outperform No. 23? Maybe since injuries across the league happen, but I drafted hoping he’d be a James White type from last year. Not so sure now. 

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23 hours ago, AJ92 said:

 

I mean you could argue that but it'd be completely wrong since the Texans were going to cut Rankin before trading him away -> https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/08/31/texans-cut-2018-third-rounder-martinas-rankin/

 

 

Agreed, great fantasy season but a 3.9 YPC and 5.9 YPR are both below league average

 

 

Again, sure he might have squeaked over 1000 yards but he was averaging 3.3 YPC while Chubb and Duke both were over 5.

 

I don't think anyone can make the argument that Carlos Hyde is actually good at football, he's had a few okay fantasy seasons almost entirely based on volume. The fact is simply Duke Johnson is the better player and the Texans have shown that by actually giving up something of value for him vs picking Hyde off the trash heap.

 

the debate isn't about hyde being great, i never thought he was it's about how much does the coaching staff use duke johnson. I don't believe this offense is good enough to make duke a RB1 and i think hyde will muddy things as is. Just because they paid something for duke and got hyde out the garbage bin doesn't mean duke will be the next breakout star. It just depends on how much you believe in duke's ability and how much opportunity you think he'll receive. We wont know until the real games start

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What are you guys expecting for a workload week1 against the Saints? should be a high scoring game. Drafted Duke 61st in a 12-teamer and is a flex option for me.

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10 minutes ago, rahuLL said:

What are you guys expecting for a workload week1 against the Saints? should be a high scoring game. Drafted Duke 61st in a 12-teamer and is a flex option for me.

 

6 rushes

47 yards

27 catches

267 yards

5 TDs

1 Carlos Hyde tea bag

Edited by TheDoctor
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1 minute ago, TheDoctor said:

 

6 rushes

47 yards

27 catches

267 yards

5 TDs

1 Carlos Hyde tea bag

 

.... AND??!?!? WHAT ABOUT THE SECOND HALF?

🤔

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15 minutes ago, rahuLL said:

What are you guys expecting for a workload week1 against the Saints? should be a high scoring game. Drafted Duke 61st in a 12-teamer and is a flex option for me.

Last season, Houston averaged 22.94 (so basically 23) RB carries per game.
They were under 20 RB carries in 3 of 16 games (1 win and 2 losses).

Considering the makeup of the team in 2019 and the Week 1 opponent (road game against New Orleans), this is my guess:
12 carries for 52 yards
6 catches for 52 yards and 1 TD
Total: 22.4 points (1 point PPR)

Edited by Corleone

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Am a wee bit upset I have 0 shares of Duke. Think he's going to have a big year since he is going to see a large percentage of the snaps. Could easily see him leading all RB's in receptions. 

10 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Last season, Houston averaged 22.94 (so basically 23) RB carries per game.
They were under 20 RB carries in 3 of 16 games (1 win and 2 losses).

Considering the makeup of the team in 2019 and the Week 1 opponent (road game against New Orleans), this is my guess:
12 carries for 52 yards
6 catches for 52 yards and 1 TD
Total: 22.4 points (1 point PPR)

This sounds like it could happen, but 3-4 less carries/15 less yards. 

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5 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Am a wee bit upset I have 0 shares of Duke. Think he's going to have a big year since he is going to see a large percentage of the snaps. Could easily see him leading all RB's in receptions. 

This sounds like it could happen, but 3-4 less carries/15 less yards. 

Love Duke this year, reached for him in the draft, however Saints are great against pass catching RBs..Sitting him for DeDe week 1, whose in a dream matchup, but look foward to Dukes output this year

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I think 6 catches is a bit optomistic. Probably around 10 carries and 4 catches. 80 total yards with a chance for a score.

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17 minutes ago, Sean Tambo said:

Love Duke this year, reached for him in the draft, however Saints are great against pass catching RBs..Sitting him for DeDe week 1, whose in a dream matchup, but look foward to Dukes output this year

I was curious about how the 2018 Saints did against pass-catching RB's and took a quick look. They had several matchups against teams without any good receiving backs, but they did allow some of the better RB's to produce well enough on the receiving end. Here were the overall receiving totals:

Week 1: Peyton Barber: no catches
Week 2: Carlos Hyde: 1-7-0
Week 3: Tevin Coleman: 2-14-1
Week 4: Saquon: 6-56-0
Week 5: Adrian Peterson: 2-36-0 (and Chris Thompson: 6-45-0)
Week 6: bye
Week 7: Alex Collins: 3-10-0
Week 8: Latavius Murray: 5-39-0
Week 9: Todd Gurley: 6-11-0
Week 10: Joe Mixon: 2-24-0 (and Gio Bernard 2-30-0)
Week 11: Josh Adams: 3-19-0
Week 12: Tevin Coleman: 3-17-1
Week 13: Zeke: 6-60-1
Week 14: Peyton Barber: 1-2-0 (and Jacquizz Rodgers: 4-38-0)
Week 15: CMC: 8-67-0
Week 16: Jaylen Samuels: 3-11-1

Week 17: CMC: 1-22-0 (but remember, he left the game very early as Carolina pulled him out)

I highlighted the RB's I thought were most likely to have been active in a 12-team league at the point of the season they played. 
Overall, 7 of the 11 RB's (in green) had respectable receiving numbers, due to either a receiving TD or due to solid catch + yardage numbers.
Only 4 of the 11 RB's (in red) were busts on the receiving end.
And 5 of the RB's were not likely to have been in many fantasy starting lineups.

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I think the Carlos Hyde news is actually great.

Look, we all knew the Houston was going to add someone.  They had no intention of going into the season with Duke as their workhorse.  But the good news is they added a scrub.  Duke should get the bulk of the RB recs as well as a healthy chunk of the carries.  At the same time, the Hyde news should keep his ADP suppressed.  Houston is going to be a team racking up the yards and scores this year.  There's plenty to go around for Duke.  I think he's good value for where he's going.

In any PPR format I think he's a solid flex/RB3.  Even RB2 if you want to go WR/TE/QB heavy early.  Non-PPR I'd fade him a bit, but who the f--- plays standard anymore anyway?

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18 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

I think the Carlos Hyde news is actually great.

Look, we all knew the Houston was going to add someone.  They had no intention of going into the season with Duke as their workhorse.  But the good news is they added a scrub.  Duke should get the bulk of the RB recs as well as a healthy chunk of the carries.  At the same time, the Hyde news should keep his ADP suppressed.  Houston is going to be a team racking up the yards and scores this year.  There's plenty to go around for Duke.  I think he's good value for where he's going.

In any PPR format I think he's a solid flex/RB3.  Even RB2 if you want to go WR/TE/QB heavy early.  Non-PPR I'd fade him a bit, but who the f--- plays standard anymore anyway?

 

I think you’re exactly right about Hyde being a scrub replacement. I was envisioning a Melvin Gordon trade type total catastrophe for duke. He should be money in ppr formats. I will say he SHOT up the yahoo ranks. I drafted last week and got him in round 8 and he was still nowhere to be seen in the default ranks. Last night my draft he was sitting there at the top of the default list around round 5. I believe in him so I reached but there’s not much value left imo unless he truly breaks out. I am betting he will. 

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Duke Johnson is going to feast. He’s far more talented than people realize. Watson can extend plays and Johnson will often times be his safety valve. Once Johnson gets the ball in his hands and can improvise, he makes plays. Hyde will be essentially a non factor. He’ll spell Johnson sometimes, but this offense is going to be crafted around the explosiveness Johnson brings to the table. 

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1 minute ago, RapeandPillage said:

Duke Johnson is going to feast. He’s far more talented than people realize. Watson can extend plays and Johnson will often times be his safety valve. Once Johnson gets the ball in his hands and can improvise, he makes plays. Hyde will be essentially a non factor. He’ll spell Johnson sometimes, but this offense is going to be crafted around the explosiveness Johnson brings to the table. 

 

I don't think an offense with Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will be built around Duke Johnson, but I do believe he will perform very well nonetheless.

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4 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

I don't think an offense with Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins will be built around Duke Johnson, but I do believe he will perform very well nonetheless.

Well I don’t mean it will specifically be crafted around him, but the style of offense will be completely conducive to his strengths. They’ve been starving for what he brings to the table. I’ve watched Watson desperately seeking a valve that Johnson offers that they haven’t had. If Fuller can stay healthy, this is unquestionably a top 5 offense. Johnson is going to have some big plays. I’m entirely unsure why people are undermining his potential and overestimating Hyde’s impact. They know what they have with Johnson. 

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3 minutes ago, RapeandPillage said:

Well I don’t mean it will specifically be crafted around him, but the style of offense will be completely conducive to his strengths. They’ve been starving for what he brings to the table. I’ve watched Watson desperately seeking a valve that Johnson offers that they haven’t had. If Fuller can stay healthy, this is unquestionably a top 5 offense. Johnson is going to have some big plays. I’m entirely unsure why people are undermining his potential and overestimating Hyde’s impact. They know what they have with Johnson. 

 

I can agree with this. Lamar Miller sadly did not age well from his Miami days. His name is somehow held in higher standards than his performance. Well, I don't think that was the case going into this season, but he has not been good since he arrived. Duke should be able to be put in very advantageous situations given his skill set in space.

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4 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

I can agree with this. Lamar Miller sadly did not age well from his Miami days. His name is somehow held in higher standards than his performance. Well, I don't think that was the case going into this season, but he has not been good since he arrived. Duke should be able to be put in very advantageous situations given his skill set in space.

I’m excited to watch it unfold. I think at his ADP he’s a steal. 

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This thread has somehow recovered from the shambles it was in pre-Hyde signing. I thought it was sure to go up in flames like the DWill thread after McCoy came to town lol

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9 hours ago, yahyahtrick said:

This thread has somehow recovered from the shambles it was in pre-Hyde signing. I thought it was sure to go up in flames like the DWill thread after McCoy came to town lol

Well everything is basically on Duke to perform at this point. Hyde would appear to not credibly threaten his role (except for perhaps vulturing the odd TD), and HOU could decide to modify their offense to account for Duke's strengths and throw to the RB more often.  If the Texans can give him the James White treatment and feed him receptions he'll easily meet the RB2 target that several here are hoping for.  However if they don't adjust their offense and run the same plays for Duke they did for Lamar Miller then he's in the RB3/Flex conversation still with a few games like Lamar's 14/49/0 and 0 rec (week 4) or 14/46/0 with 2 rec/25yds (week 5) where he'll be a complete drag on your roster. 

And before the "well they didn't give up a 3rd round in trade to not use him" argument, please look up Golden Tate's stats on the Eagles box scores after they gave up a 3rd for him last year.  He only broke into double digit fantasy scoring once the rest of the year, and if god forbid you started him in the fantasy playoffs each week he got you 1/7/0, 5/43/0, and 2/13/0. 

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