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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook

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Absolute best spot he could land in. Duke is going to be a good late round pick in PPR leagues.

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Posted (edited)

Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston. 

 

Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].

 

The Texans only produced 47 receptions TOTAL for their RBs last year! That is between Lamar Miller(25), Alfred Blue(20), and D’Onta Foreman(2), all above average pass catchers at the position. Heck, Miller had 47 catches himself in 2015 in Miami before coming over to Houston and having that part of his game minimized by the scheme.

 

So until we see otherwise, this looks like a bad fit. If they do work their playbook around Duke howver, there could be some upside, but it isn’t inherent as of now.

Edited by elroypedro
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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Image result for kudos gif

Yeah, cheers to me. But also, F me for trading him this offseason. Texans are a great landing spot. #LameStoryBro

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Texans are a joke franchise. We won't pay for any OL when tons are available but we'll overpay for a backup RB. 

 

Get this franchise a GM and get BOB out of this freaking town 

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When should i reach for hunt

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2 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston. 

 

Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].

 

The Texans only produced 47 receptions TOTAL for their RBs last year! That is between Lamar Miller, Alfred Blue, and D’Onta Foreman, all above average pass catchers at the position. Heck, Miller had 47 catches himself in 2015 in Miami before coming over to Houston and having that part of his game minimized by the scheme.

 

So until we see otherwise, this looks like a bad fit. If they do work their playbook around Duke howver, there could be some upside, but it isn’t inherent as of now.

Foreman played like 1 game last year, and Blue is the opposite of a dynamic pass catcher.

They had no one behind Miller who could play the role Duke will now play. Buy Johnson now if you can. He'll have a big role on this team. 

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1 minute ago, CABLE87 said:

When should i reach for hunt

Just pay nothing for Dontrell Hilliard. He's basically Duke Johnson lite, and he gets the role for at least half the season, if not longer. 

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31 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Absolute best spot he could land in. Duke is going to be a good late round pick in PPR leagues.

 

Texans threw to RB's less than almost everyone in the NFL. why is this the best spot? 

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Because they have a need , and he fits the bill.   I would have to wonder that the reasons they did not pass to the RB's is because they were not very good catchers.  Lamar, Blue, Foreman were all standard specialist runners not catchers of blockers.   This could improve the offense overall, and allow the opening of those types of plays.

Duke is also a solid RB, and he will get carries as well.  Great fit for him, and great pick by team.

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9 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Texans threw to RB's less than almost everyone in the NFL. why is this the best spot? 

 

I get that concern, but Duke is a different player than they’ve had. He is a great route runner with the ability to run a wide variety of routes out of the backfield or the slot. Difficult to look at past numbers when they haven’t had a guy with this skill set. 

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Duke Johnson had a fantasy point per touch of 1.52!!! With the Texans having a meh RB in miller, Duke should easily surpass him on the depth chart and assume lead back duties leading to a rb campaign the likes we have never seen before. I would t be surprised to see duke climb into the 2nd round of drafts soon.

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8 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Duke Johnson had a fantasy point per touch of 1.52!!! With the Texans having a meh RB in miller, Duke should easily surpass him on the depth chart and assume lead back duties leading to a rb campaign the likes we have never seen before. I would t be surprised to see duke climb into the 2nd round of drafts soon.

Don’t low ball him. End of first.

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I wouldn't discount him being insurance for the WR corps as well. Coutee and Fuller have not shown they can stay healthy. He also projects to be a very effective runner out of shotgun.

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It will be interesting to see where he goes. He was barely on my board till now. An RBBC thing might make sense, with him the pass-catcher and Miller still getting the bulk of carries. Neither are looking esp draftable though.

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Don't love the landing spot.

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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston. 

 

Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].

 

The Texans only produced 47 receptions TOTAL for their RBs last year! That is between Lamar Miller(25), Alfred Blue(20), and D’Onta Foreman(2), all above average pass catchers at the position. Heck, Miller had 47 catches himself in 2015 in Miami before coming over to Houston and having that part of his game minimized by the scheme.

 

So until we see otherwise, this looks like a bad fit. If they do work their playbook around Duke howver, there could be some upside, but it isn’t inherent as of now.

 

but... but... check his fantasy points per touch!

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He's not in a crowded CLE backfield any more, and got his wishes of a trade. Nobody loves Lamar Miller as a RB, but yet several of you think this is a bad landing spot? SMH...Duke's value just went way up no matter how you look at it.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Texans threw to RB's less than almost everyone in the NFL. why is this the best spot? 

 

Because A) they didn’t have a talented pass catcher out of the backfield and B )  just because they did it one way in the past, doesn’t mean they won’t change their future ways.

It’s like saying hur dur I never bought a 100,000 car before and just because I hit the lotto I guess I’ll still be driving my 15 year old Toyota Corolla. It’s a different ballgame now, now you have the means. 

Some of y’all naysayers are crazy...I think you’re just trying to push his draft capital down. Buy buy buy 

 

 

 

Edited by jstep13

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Now if HOU trades for disgruntled WAS LT Trent Williams with similar compensation (e.g. like the 4th rounder given up for Duke) this trade will be a lot more useful. Otherwise it's just spending draft capital to replace the backup RB they cut in D'onta Foreman. 

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Johnson is far better a prospect than Foreman and hardly just a backup. Worst case he'll be the 3d down pass-catcher, at best either RBBC or take the job outright and Miller will spell him. Still I don't like either for drafting. Miller's appeal was touches, now that's taken IMO a huge hit.

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3 minutes ago, warpster said:

 

but... but... check his fantasy points per touch!

His FPPT are horrible for being a scat back, at only 1.01 FPPT.

 

 

Also, check this:

 

In 64 career games, on 534 career touches, Duke Johnson has only 13 career TDs. That is 0.20 TDs per game, or 3.2 TDs per season.

 

in just 5.5 games last season, on 111 touches, Damien Willams had 10 TDs. That is 1.8 TDs per game, or 29.0 per season.

 

 

This isn’t a fair comparison, as Duke is CLEARLY not even in the same stratosphere production wise as Damien Williams.

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3 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

 

Because A) they didn’t have a talented pass catcher out of the backfield and B )  just because they did it one way in the past, doesn’t mean they won’t change their future ways.

It’s like saying welp I never bought a 100,000 car before and just because I hit the lotto I’ll still be driving my 15 year old Toyota Corolla. It’s a different ballgame now, now you have the means. 

Some of y’all naysayers are crazy...I think you’re just trying to push is draft capital down. Buy buy buy 

 

 

 

 

Lamar Miller is a fine, above average pass catcher. He had 47 receptions on his own a few years ago, but the Texans as a team have gone FAR away from passing to their RBs, as the entire fricking team only had 47 total receptions go to the RB last year!!!

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Yes and therefore they will do it again this year!

Or not.

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