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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

His FPPT are horrible for being a scat back, at only 1.01 FPPT.

 

 

Also, check this:

 

In 64 career games, on 534 career touches, Duke Johnson has only 13 career TDs. That is 0.20 TDs per game, or 3.2 TDs per season.

 

in just 5.5 games last season, on 111 touches, Damien Willams had 10 TDs. That is 1.8 TDs per game, or 29.0 per season.

 

 

This isn’t a fair comparison, as Duke is CLEARLY not even in the same stratosphere production wise as Damien Williams.

 

 

So, Browns = Chiefs?

 

giphy.gif

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

Because they have a need , and he fits the bill.   I would have to wonder that the reasons they did not pass to the RB's is because they were not very good catchers.  Lamar, Blue, Foreman were all standard specialist runners not catchers of blockers.   This could improve the offense overall, and allow the opening of those types of plays.

Duke is also a solid RB, and he will get carries as well.  Great fit for him, and great pick by team.

 

Lamar can't catch? You seen football before? 

 

Question the coaching staff hell bent on running him into walls, not the player who's been terrific at that skill set his entire career. 

 

And Duke has never ran the ball. He's 1 dimensional. He gets draws occasionally that make his YPC look better than he is. 

 

You must be new here. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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23 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

His FPPT are horrible for being a scat back, at only 1.01 FPPT.

 

 

Also, check this:

 

In 64 career games, on 534 career touches, Duke Johnson has only 13 career TDs. That is 0.20 TDs per game, or 3.2 TDs per season.

 

in just 5.5 games last season, on 111 touches, Damien Willams had 10 TDs. That is 1.8 TDs per game, or 29.0 per season.

 

 

This isn’t a fair comparison, as Duke is CLEARLY not even in the same stratosphere production wise as Damien Williams.

 

What is his ratio of air yards to target market share? I need to know so I can adjust my portfolio for regression. Pls advise. 

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1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

I get that concern, but Duke is a different player than they’ve had. He is a great route runner with the ability to run a wide variety of routes out of the backfield or the slot. Difficult to look at past numbers when they haven’t had a guy with this skill set. 

 

False.

 

Fins up... Is that Dolphins? You just become a fan of them last year? You should rewatch some of what Lamar Miller was doing there as a Dolphin when he played there. 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Agmaniacmike said:

I wouldn't discount him being insurance for the WR corps as well. Coutee and Fuller have not shown they can stay healthy. He also projects to be a very effective runner out of shotgun.

 

Who is projecting that? I guess I'm not aware of his long history of running the ball out of different formations with success. 

 

His longest run of 23 yards last season came against the Chargers when the Browns were down FOUR scores and he ran a draw play on a long down and distance when chargers were playing prevent defense. 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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29 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

 

 

So, Browns = Chiefs?

 

giphy.gif

 

Damien Williams efficiency and production per touch and TD rate all DESTROYED Duke Johnson’s, while Damien was on the Dolphins. 

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41 minutes ago, smarmy said:

He's not in a crowded CLE backfield any more, and got his wishes of a trade. Nobody loves Lamar Miller as a RB, but yet several of you think this is a bad landing spot? SMH...Duke's value just went way up no matter how you look at it.

 

His value was going to be much higher for 8 games. Now he will just be middling for a whole season. 

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41 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

 

Because A) they didn’t have a talented pass catcher out of the backfield and B )  just because they did it one way in the past, doesn’t mean they won’t change their future ways.

It’s like saying hur dur I never bought a 100,000 car before and just because I hit the lotto I guess I’ll still be driving my 15 year old Toyota Corolla. It’s a different ballgame now, now you have the means. 

Some of y’all naysayers are crazy...I think you’re just trying to push his draft capital down. Buy buy buy 

 

 

 

 

You mock me but you don't know what you're talking about. 

 

Lamar Miller is a talented pass catching back who is not used in that role because BOB is horrible and the Texans have drafted 3 "Duke Johnsons" in the last 4 years only to never utilize one of them. Not one! 

 

Today it all changes though I guess because you've never seen a Texans football game or are aware of what they do on the field or in the draft. 

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39 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Lamar Miller is a fine, above average pass catcher. He had 47 receptions on his own a few years ago, but the Texans as a team have gone FAR away from passing to their RBs, as the entire fricking team only had 47 total receptions go to the RB last year!!!

 

Who are you? You sound like someone that knows football. You don't belong here. 

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34 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

His FPPT are horrible for being a scat back, at only 1.01 FPPT.

 

 

Also, check this:

 

In 64 career games, on 534 career touches, Duke Johnson has only 13 career TDs. That is 0.20 TDs per game, or 3.2 TDs per season.

 

in just 5.5 games last season, on 111 touches, Damien Willams had 10 TDs. That is 1.8 TDs per game, or 29.0 per season.

 

 

This isn’t a fair comparison, as Duke is CLEARLY not even in the same stratosphere production wise as Damien Williams.

Once again a post that has stats with zero context. 

 

Since Johnson has been in the league, Browns have won under 20% of their games. They also had the worst two season stretch in the history of the NFL. The Browns were bottom 3 in scoring every year of his career outside of last season. 

 

Until playing for one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL Williams averaged an incredible 2.2 TDs per game. So it is 100% more than a fair comparison. He was even more irrelevant than Duke on Miami.

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51 minutes ago, jumper said:

Now if HOU trades for disgruntled WAS LT Trent Williams with similar compensation (e.g. like the 4th rounder given up for Duke) this trade will be a lot more useful. Otherwise it's just spending draft capital to replace the backup RB they cut in D'onta Foreman. 

It's going to cost a lot more than a 4th to get a franchise LT

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10 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

You mock me but you don't know what you're talking about. 

 

Lamar Miller is a talented pass catching back who is not used in that role because BOB is horrible and the Texans have drafted 3 "Duke Johnsons" in the last 4 years only to never utilize one of them. Not one! 

 

Today it all changes though I guess because you've never seen a Texans football game or are aware of what they do on the field or in the draft. 

I get your point, but the Texans gave up potentially a third round pick for a pass catching back. You think they're not going to use him. The disconnect from the coaching staff and the front office would have to be incomprehensible for that to be the case. 

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Posted (edited)

Lamar is not the great pass catcher some posters would suggest.  His career stats are so MEH it is not even funny.  Duke is going to help the team, and he may even put a fire under Lamar's butt.

 

Coaching is bad too, and Lamar is not used well, but Duke is a baller. Win/Win

Edited by Sivaro

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Check that. The Texans don't even have a GM. This trade was done by BOB. No way he personally executed this plan and doesn't intend to use Duke quite a bit. 

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It'll be interesting to see where Duke's ADP settles as we get into draft season.  Clearly it's going to rise, but by how much?  We seem to have two camps here, one side of naysayers that don't think he'll be utilized at all, and another that thinks he's going to be a very valuable fantasy RB.  If there are a few of the latter group in every fantasy draft, the price could go up in a hurry.

Maybe this is the coward's way out, but I think reality will be somewhere in the middle.  I agree that the team likely isn't making this deal to not use Duke's skillset; at the same time though, hard to think BOB is going to change the game plan so drastically that they will be able to support essentially a COP after barely being able to support a bellcow in previous seasons.  

I'd expect him to be a usable RB / Flex in PPR leagues, but I doubt he'll return value on where he'll end up being drafted after all the hype and dust settles.

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20 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I get your point, but the Texans gave up potentially a third round pick for a pass catching back. You think they're not going to use him. The disconnect from the coaching staff and the front office would have to be incomprehensible for that to be the case. 

 

Theres no disconnect there, because HE IS THE FRONT OFFICE!! 

 

He fired everyone and our lazy A owners let him do whatever he wants with no real track record of proven success besides backing into division wins only to get absolutely gutted in the first round of the playoffs. 

 

BOB fired Gaine. He then became GM. He won't sign Clowney because he doesnt like him and there's no GM in place to extend him anyways. He cut Foreman because he didn't like him and didn't have a GM in place to check him. Then he got on the phone himself to get TRAPED by John dorsey (no GM to check him). This is going to be THE most expensive RB trade in the NFL since the Trent Richardson TRAPE. The pick turns into a 3rd rounder if he plays in 10 games. That's it.

 

I got way too fired up about this because I hate my team and BOB so much and I just want them to win. 

 

Y'all are right though, maybe it all changes and he'll utilize him. I just struggle with it. This is the same BOB that traded for Ryan Mallett and gave Brock O a huge payday without ever meeting him then our former GM got tired of it and drafted D Watson who saved BOB job and he ran out our former GM anyway. I don't believe he can change, but I also have such disdain and hate when I look at him that maybe I'm too close to see without bias. 

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This is one of the worst trades I've seen in a while.  Can you imagine giving up a third-round pick for Duke ****ing Johnson?  They could have signed Theo Riddick as a 3rd-down back four days ago for nothing!

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

His value was going to be much higher for 8 games. Now he will just be middling for a whole season. 

What do you have a better chance of stealing carries from? Chubb/Hunt or Miller? Even if you don't see him as between the tackles guy, which I agree he isn't, he has a chance to touch the ball significantly more for three more seasons in HOU, rather than...maybe he'll touch the ball for 8 weeks and then never again for 2.5 years. 

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25 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

This is one of the worst trades I've seen in a while.  Can you imagine giving up a third-round pick for Duke ****ing Johnson?  They could have signed Theo Riddick as a 3rd-down back four days ago for nothing!

 

Perhaps it is because Duke is a better RB than Theo, and by no small margin.

 

I think they gave up a 4th round pick, not a third.  If they did give up a third, then ..yeah....they have no faith in Lamar at all.

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1 minute ago, Sivaro said:

 

Perhaps it is because Duke is a better RB than Theo, and by no small margin.

 

I think they gave up a 4th round pick, not a third.  If they did give up a third, then ..yeah....they have no faith in Lamar at all.

If he’s active for 10 games this season, it’s a third-rounder.

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Make it even more likely, Duke is going to be a solid flex play option.  If Lamar goes down with injury, he could be worth even more!   Duke is going to be last years Jalen Richard.

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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

 

Damien Williams efficiency and production per touch and TD rate all DESTROYED Duke Johnson’s, while Damien was on the Dolphins. 

wut.jpg.261a87185fe1e260ae2af6c2e6656833.jpg

Damien Williams:

damien.PNG.5bfb80c4f222fb29db94846a1cc2a2d9.PNG

 

Duke Johnson:

duke.PNG.cc80494e4e530db30eef04f3716886ee.PNG

 

 

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5 minutes ago, jstep13 said:

wut.jpg.261a87185fe1e260ae2af6c2e6656833.jpg

Damien Williams:

damien.PNG.5bfb80c4f222fb29db94846a1cc2a2d9.PNG

 

Duke Johnson:

duke.PNG.cc80494e4e530db30eef04f3716886ee.PNG

 

 

 

clearly if damien williams has out-produced saquon barkley he's out-produced duke.

and clearly axeroy stat-less posts are not meant to be taken seriously.

 

Axe-Roy1.jpg

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36 minutes ago, smarmy said:

What do you have a better chance of stealing carries from? Chubb/Hunt or Miller? Even if you don't see him as between the tackles guy, which I agree he isn't, he has a chance to touch the ball significantly more for three more seasons in HOU, rather than...maybe he'll touch the ball for 8 weeks and then never again for 2.5 years. 

 

He carries a $4 M cap hit next season. I'm not convinced he's a lock to make the roster next season.

 

He'll definitely need to prove me wrong in 2019 if we're even to discuss Duke as a Texan in 2020.

 

I would've honestly preferred a discounted Duke Johnson (that I know who he is and what he's capable of) in the 15th round or whatever pick 160 is to have him be him for 8 games and throw him away when hunt returns then invest in this unknown commodity that I assume gets into the sub 100s here in a couple weeks. 

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