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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

It'll be interesting to see where Duke's ADP settles as we get into draft season.  Clearly it's going to rise, but by how much?  We seem to have two camps here, one side of naysayers that don't think he'll be utilized at all, and another that thinks he's going to be a very valuable fantasy RB.  If there are a few of the latter group in every fantasy draft, the price could go up in a hurry.

Maybe this is the coward's way out, but I think reality will be somewhere in the middle.  I agree that the team likely isn't making this deal to not use Duke's skillset; at the same time though, hard to think BOB is going to change the game plan so drastically that they will be able to support essentially a COP after barely being able to support a bellcow in previous seasons.  

I'd expect him to be a usable RB / Flex in PPR leagues, but I doubt he'll return value on where he'll end up being drafted after all the hype and dust settles.

I bet he'll go right around James White in PPR.  Which is basically asking you to pay for his upside. (Though I don't consider injury replacement a valid upside in terms of value)

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

It'll be interesting to see where Duke's ADP settles as we get into draft season.  Clearly it's going to rise, but by how much?  We seem to have two camps here, one side of naysayers that don't think he'll be utilized at all, and another that thinks he's going to be a very valuable fantasy RB.  If there are a few of the latter group in every fantasy draft, the price could go up in a hurry.

Maybe this is the coward's way out, but I think reality will be somewhere in the middle.  I agree that the team likely isn't making this deal to not use Duke's skillset; at the same time though, hard to think BOB is going to change the game plan so drastically that they will be able to support essentially a COP after barely being able to support a bellcow in previous seasons.  

I'd expect him to be a usable RB / Flex in PPR leagues, but I doubt he'll return value on where he'll end up being drafted after all the hype and dust settles.

 

duke's at 14.04 / 14.05 today (half-PPR and full-PPR), lamar at 5.09 / 6.03.

the hype alone for being the receiving back for the texans should drive duke into single digits soon. i expect duke and lamar to meet somewhere in the round 7 range by next week. not expecting a tarik cohen or james white ADP or anything, but the train will get rolling and it wouldn't surprise me for duke's ADP to pass lamar's in full PPR before preseason week 2.

 

34 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Make it even more likely, Duke is going to be a solid flex play option.  If Lamar goes down with injury, he could be worth even more!   Duke is going to be last years Jalen Richard.

 

in my PPR auction tomorrow, i'm all in: i like duke and feel as though he never had a real shot in cleveland. i'm hoping i can net him in the $2-$8 range as we're still in the early stages of potential hype. but i disagree with your jalen richard comparison: richard has show explosivity but duke has talent and is now linked to a real QB on a real offense.

 

4 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

He carries a $4 M cap hit next season. I'm not convinced he's a lock to make the roster next season.

 

He'll definitely need to prove me wrong in 2019 if we're even to discuss Duke as a Texan in 2020.

 

I would've honestly preferred a discounted Duke Johnson (that I know who he is and what he's capable of) in the 15th round or whatever pick 160 is to have him be him for 8 games and throw him away when hunt returns then invest in this unknown commodity that I assume gets into the sub 100s here in a couple weeks. 

 

lamar miller's 4-year $26 million contract ends this season. there is little depth in damarea crockett and karan higdon.

i think duke will do well in this offense, at least well enough to continue with his contract into 2020.

depending on draft selection in a promising 2020 RB class, we'll see if duke completes his contract (ending in 2021). i think he does: the texans have shown an affinity towards running backs who simply remain healthy (i.e. regardless of efficiency).

 

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So no one’s concerned about his hamstring?

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11 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I bet he'll go right around James White in PPR.  Which is basically asking you to pay for his upside. (Though I don't consider injury replacement a valid upside in terms of value)

 

4 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

duke's at 14.04 / 14.05 today (half-PPR and full-PPR), lamar at 5.09 / 6.03.

the hype alone for being the receiving back for the texans should drive duke into single digits soon. i expect duke and lamar to meet somewhere in the round 7 range by next week. not expecting a tarik cohen or james white ADP or anything, but the train will get rolling and it wouldn't surprise me for duke's ADP to pass lamar's in full PPR before preseason week 2.

 

If he ends up in that James White ADP range, I wouldn't touch Duke with a 10 foot pole.  I'm thinking he settles in around 7th round, maybe 8th (in the range of players like Penny, Sanders, Lat, Freeman, etc), and not sure I really like him there a lot either, compared to the other options.  If he gets into that late-8th/9th range then I think you have some room for upside.

Same can be said for Miller.  If he drops into that 8th round range or later, I think there could be value there too.  Miller will still be getting the majority of the earlier down work and can still return value.

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1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

 

Perhaps it is because Duke is a better RB than Theo, and by no small margin.

 

I think they gave up a 4th round pick, not a third.  If they did give up a third, then ..yeah....they have no faith in Lamar at all.

 

It's a third if he plays 10 games.  I don't agree Duke is substantially better than Riddick, but even if he is, the margin doesn't warrant a third round pick.  Maybe it warrants a sixth or a seventh.

Plus another way, can you imagine a team ever trading Theo Riddick plus a third round pick to acquire Duke Johnson?

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4 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

He carries a $4 M cap hit next season. I'm not convinced he's a lock to make the roster next season.

 

He'll definitely need to prove me wrong in 2019 if we're even to discuss Duke as a Texan in 2020.

 

I would've honestly preferred a discounted Duke Johnson (that I know who he is and what he's capable of) in the 15th round or whatever pick 160 is to have him be him for 8 games and throw him away when hunt returns then invest in this unknown commodity that I assume gets into the sub 100s here in a couple weeks. 

Fair enough. As a dynasty owner, I'm thrilled with today's news. I see your point for upcoming redraft leagues.

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1 hour ago, smarmy said:

Fair enough. As a dynasty owner, I'm thrilled with today's news. I see your point for upcoming redraft leagues.

As a dynasty owner you are thrilled he went to the Texans? I wouldn't be.

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I agree this move boosts his value short-term but regardless of where he goes he's going to be 2nd fiddle in a timeshare. 

Considering his skills combined with what Watson brings to the table regarding mobility I think this is a good fit for DJ. 

The fact remains however that he is small, injury prone and NOT a stick-moving RB. There will be great weeks and terrible weeks depending on game flow.

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Is he injury prone? And how do we know he isnt a stick mover, has he ever been given a chance?

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Posted (edited)

Looking for some advice....

Edited by phatrat
Bench Coach content removed, please use the Bench Coach forum for these types of questions. Thanks!

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This guy must have the worst hamstrings in the NFL.  Can he borrow Trent Richardson's since he doesn't need his?

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Gonna target him around pick 110-125. Good late round RB with upside, he is still ranked very low so he might be overseen in drafts 

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Everybody's putting it on the coach that Houston doesn't throw to its RBs, but it is more likely the QB.

Running QBs usually depress receiving numbers of their RBs, because when the play breaks down they run rather than throw the dumpoff pass.

 

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4 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

Everybody's putting it on the coach that Houston doesn't throw to its RBs, but it is more likely the QB.

Running QBs usually depress receiving numbers of their RBs, because when the play breaks down they run rather than throw the dumpoff pass.

 

 

I feel like running QBs are more likely to run when they have horrendous O-lines - look at Watson and Josh Allen last year, tons of running stats from them because they were constantly under pressure and having to scramble. If the O-line improves for Houston this year it would be huge for their RBs. I also don’t imagine Duke gets many carries anyway but maybe he will get plenty of catches lined up as a receiver? 

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Taken from a consensus fantasy sleeper article at Fantasy Pros

“I know I’m going to hear “Johnson can’t be considered a sleeper anymore,” since his trade to the Texans on August 8, but he’s still going at 153 overall (13th round in 12-team leagues) as the RB47. Even if we give him an understandable ADP in the ninth round, he’s still going to outperform his RB39 projection. Using only the “experts” that have updated their rankings since August 9, he is still being ranked as the RB44. In 2017, he finished as the RB15 in half-PPR scoring, having 82 carries for 348 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns along with 74 receptions on 93 targets for 693 receiving yards and three more receiving touchdowns.

Alfred Blue is leaving behind 150 carries for 499 yards (3.3 YPC) and, despite being an inept pass catcher, still had 27 targets. Johnson has more talent, better athletic skills, and better per-touch efficiency that Blue and Lamar Miller combined. Although Houston has had the fewest targets to their running backs over the past two seasons, Johnson is in line for over 200 touches in a prolific offense where he can also work out of the slot when Keke Coutee is on the shelf.”

– Kevin Wheeler (DraftWize)

 

Duke Johnson’s ADP is likely on the rise following the trade to the Texans, and with good reason. Johnson is an elite pass-catching back, and while Bill O’Brien’s offense has typically failed to yield high-volume targets to the running back position, they simply have not had a player of his skill set. Johnson could easily put together a James White-type season during his first year with the Texans and makes for a fantastic investment in any type of PPR format.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

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had a toss up between him and dion lewis. gut said lewis but i went with duke due to new team and the fact lamar miller is on his last legs

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3 hours ago, brosephd said:

had a toss up between him and dion lewis. gut said lewis but i went with duke due to new team and the fact lamar miller is on his last legs

Between those two, I would make the same call.

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4 hours ago, brosephd said:

had a toss up between him and dion lewis. gut said lewis but i went with duke due to new team and the fact lamar miller is on his last legs

Right call IMO as well.

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On 8/21/2019 at 11:19 AM, Fabrini said:

Taken from a consensus fantasy sleeper article at Fantasy Pros

“I know I’m going to hear “Johnson can’t be considered a sleeper anymore,” since his trade to the Texans on August 8, but he’s still going at 153 overall (13th round in 12-team leagues) as the RB47. Even if we give him an understandable ADP in the ninth round, he’s still going to outperform his RB39 projection. Using only the “experts” that have updated their rankings since August 9, he is still being ranked as the RB44. In 2017, he finished as the RB15 in half-PPR scoring, having 82 carries for 348 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns along with 74 receptions on 93 targets for 693 receiving yards and three more receiving touchdowns.

Alfred Blue is leaving behind 150 carries for 499 yards (3.3 YPC) and, despite being an inept pass catcher, still had 27 targets. Johnson has more talent, better athletic skills, and better per-touch efficiency that Blue and Lamar Miller combined. Although Houston has had the fewest targets to their running backs over the past two seasons, Johnson is in line for over 200 touches in a prolific offense where he can also work out of the slot when Keke Coutee is on the shelf.”

– Kevin Wheeler (DraftWize)

 

Duke Johnson’s ADP is likely on the rise following the trade to the Texans, and with good reason. Johnson is an elite pass-catching back, and while Bill O’Brien’s offense has typically failed to yield high-volume targets to the running back position, they simply have not had a player of his skill set. Johnson could easily put together a James White-type season during his first year with the Texans and makes for a fantastic investment in any type of PPR format.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

 

I think the note about Alfred Blue is a bit misleading. I think his number of touches was a bit inflated due to Lamar's injury. How do we know that Duke is going to get volume? As much as I hate Lamar, this is still his backfield. With his ADP, Duke is definitely a stash and can end up being a steal, but I don't see the facts really pointing that it'll be anything more than that. I haven't kept up with Houston or Duke, so I could definitely be missing things.

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Duke is just way more talented then Lamar and in an offense led by Watson it just seems normal that he eventually takes over at some point. 

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30 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

 

I think the note about Alfred Blue is a bit misleading. I think his number of touches was a bit inflated due to Lamar's injury. How do we know that Duke is going to get volume? As much as I hate Lamar, this is still his backfield. With his ADP, Duke is definitely a stash and can end up being a steal, but I don't see the facts really pointing that it'll be anything more than that. I haven't kept up with Houston or Duke, so I could definitely be missing things.

That's why I stated it was from a consensus article,as for me personally I've never been a Miller fan but I thought for those following this thread that these observations from others were worth sharing.

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Add some historical perspective. 

 

It is rare for a team to trade a 3rd round pick for a RB straight up.

 

Trent Richardson trade was for a 1st. 

Corey Dillion was a 2nd

Jerome Bettis in 1996 was a 3rd. 

 

The Texans would not have done this if they didn’t have a very clear vision of him. Granted they don’t have a GM. 

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1 hour ago, Tenner said:

Add some historical perspective. 

 

It is rare for a team to trade a 3rd round pick for a RB straight up.

 

Trent Richardson trade was for a 1st. 

Corey Dillion was a 2nd

Jerome Bettis in 1996 was a 3rd. 

 

The Texans would not have done this if they didn’t have a very clear vision of him. Granted they don’t have a GM. 

Still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. They haven't been throwing to RB's and that appears to be a coach and/or QB issue. That isn't going to change. It isn't a good fit for Duke and I wouldn't expect him to even have flex value because of the offense he will be in.

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