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Domingo German 2019 Outlook

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Anybody know what his fastball is topping out at?

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44 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

Anybody know what his fastball is topping out at?

 

94/95

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What's his innings limit look like this year? 150 MAX? He might not be there come playoff time....

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4 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

What's his innings limit look like this year? 150 MAX? He might not be there come playoff time....

No, there's no real need to restrict his innings.  Yankees are managing the innings as they've already skipped one of his starts.  They planned to give him and the other starters an extra day of rest this week but it didn't work out.  I don't think they'll really restrict him but they'll limit his workload when they can, which I'm not a huge fan of.

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Don't be surprised if he stinks it up on Sunday. The Twins are the top offense in the league in terms of Team OPS, which is pretty surprising.

Just a reminder of his game log so far. All softies: DET, BAL, CWS, KC, LAA, SF

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3 hours ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

Anyone else selling high in a Dynasty league? Regression appears imminent. 

I’d try to sell high for sure in a redraft, but I’m holding him in dynasty.

Regression is coming, his BABIP can’t stay under .200 for much longer. But I also think he’s really talented and has upside beyond what he’s shown so far.

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Posted (edited)

6-1, 31.67 ip, 0.87 Whip, 2.35 era,.157 bba, 32 ks, 9 bb.  Sell high.

Edited by Trexpenniebaker
stat correction
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1 hour ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

6-1, 31.67 ip, 0.87 Whip, 2.35 era,.157 bba, 32 ks, 9 bb.  Sell high.

 

i actually dont disagree with you if you are getting something big back....like if you can trade him for Judge do it.

 

 

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11 hours ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

Anyone else selling high in a Dynasty league? Regression appears imminent. 

 

I am of a similar mind to the poster who replied earlier. Maybe in redraft but no way in dynasty. He has talent and could continue to improve. Yeah there will be regression this year but how much? I can see him finishing with an ERA around 3.50 while providing 10 K/9 and plenty of wins. 

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this guy is so confusing, I want to sell but I want to hold just as bad. thing is - at least in my leagues, no one is willing to give up anything of value for him. strange considering hes a top 20 player in most leagues and is showing no signs of regression.

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14 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

this guy is so confusing, I want to sell but I want to hold just as bad. thing is - at least in my leagues, no one is willing to give up anything of value for him. strange considering hes a top 20 player in most leagues and is showing no signs of regression.

How's he confusing?  He's been filthy all year and this has always been his potential.  Not like he's doing it with garbage stuff.  If you're saying you're conflicted of what to do with him, its a pretty clear answer.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

this guy is so confusing, I want to sell but I want to hold just as bad. thing is - at least in my leagues, no one is willing to give up anything of value for him. strange considering hes a top 20 player in most leagues and is showing no signs of regression.

I’m not selling now. The offers I’ve been getting aren’t close to what he’s producing so I’m just gonna ride the wave and hope this is a breakout that lasts all year 

Edited by ty5592
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48 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

How's he confusing?  He's been filthy all year and this has always been his potential.  Not like he's doing it with garbage stuff.  If you're saying you're conflicted of what to do with him, its a pretty clear answer.

His ERA should be in the high 3s based on every estimator out there. His BABIP is .225, and his HR/9 is only 0.72 despite pitching in a homer-friendly park with only a 36.4% groundball rate. He’s had a relatively easy schedule so far, and even though the Yankees are a good team with a good pen, he’s not going to keep getting wins at this rate.

The confusing thing is that anyone who knows advanced stats sees what should be an obvious sell high situation. But his stuff is excellent (especially that curve ball) and he’s just figuring out how to put it all together. Luck is making the breakout look like it’s happening faster than it really is, but that doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

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57 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

His ERA should be in the high 3s based on every estimator out there. His BABIP is .225, and his HR/9 is only 0.72 despite pitching in a homer-friendly park with only a 36.4% groundball rate. He’s had a relatively easy schedule so far, and even though the Yankees are a good team with a good pen, he’s not going to keep getting wins at this rate.

The confusing thing is that anyone who knows advanced stats sees what should be an obvious sell high situation. But his stuff is excellent (especially that curve ball) and he’s just figuring out how to put it all together. Luck is making the breakout look like it’s happening faster than it really is, but that doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

There's so much wrong with this post.  There's nothing to indicate he's getting an unusual amount of luck.  There's also nothing unusual about that BABIP either.  He's one of the best starters in baseball even by adjusted/estimated stats.

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55 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

There's so much wrong with this post.  There's nothing to indicate he's getting an unusual amount of luck.  There's also nothing unusual about that BABIP either.  He's one of the best starters in baseball even by adjusted/estimated stats.

 

I mean even Kershaw has a career BABIP around .270 I think and that's considered unusually low. That said, I do think he is legitimately a very good pitcher, one of the biggest mistakes I see some use is taking BABIP alone as gospel. The statcast numbers all look good, doesn't get hit too hard, has nasty spin on his fastball. He's probably not going to finish with a 2.50 ERA (I do see him getting hit around pretty badly now and then) but he is a very good pitcher and the breakout seems to be real.

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The opponents he’s faced probably needs to be considered, only legit offenses so far have been TB and Minn.  All of his other starts have been against the likes of Bal (x2), SF, Det, CHW, LAA and KC.

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5 minutes ago, soccerphysio said:

The opponents he’s faced probably needs to be considered, only legit offenses so far have been TB and Minn.  All of his other starts have been against the likes of Bal (x2), SF, Det, CHW, LAA and KC.

There’s probably only 5 legit offenses in MLB that I would be worried about my SP facing. Lots of elite pitchers are facing the same sh*tty teams and putting up worse numbers than German. 

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18 minutes ago, soccerphysio said:

The opponents he’s faced probably needs to be considered, only legit offenses so far have been TB and Minn.  All of his other starts have been against the likes of Bal (x2), SF, Det, CHW, LAA and KC.

 

11 minutes ago, aMediumPace said:

There’s probably only 5 legit offenses in MLB that I would be worried about my SP facing. Lots of elite pitchers are facing the same sh*tty teams and putting up worse numbers than German. 

 

agree with @aMediumPace  really only Boston and Houston are that tough.  i guess min and TB are decent but arent anything special tbh.

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24 minutes ago, soccerphysio said:

The opponents he’s faced probably needs to be considered, only legit offenses so far have been TB and Minn.  All of his other starts have been against the likes of Bal (x2), SF, Det, CHW, LAA and KC.

Yea this statement is just ridiculous.  KC and LAA are not bad offenses.  Neither has the CHW been either.

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2 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Yea this statement is just ridiculous.  KC and LAA are not bad offenses.  Neither has the CHW been either.

 

sometimes folks get hung up on the fact that a team in general is "bad" or "not a contender" but fail to look at recent stats which show their actual offensive output. TEX is another one that comes to mind (I didn't realize they'd been like a top 5 offense). I'd be like "sweet, my pitcher has TEX/CWS next week, I'm golden"....not so fast.

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2 hours ago, MrBrown said:

There's so much wrong with this post.  There's nothing to indicate he's getting an unusual amount of luck.  There's also nothing unusual about that BABIP either.  He's one of the best starters in baseball even by adjusted/estimated stats.

What adjusted/estimated stats are you looking at? If there’s some that suggest German hasn’t been lucky, I’d love to learn about them.

He has a 3.85 xFIP. That ranks him 39th among qualified starters. His 3.86 SIERA ranks him 34th.

His Statcast xwOBA is .297, which ranks him 34th among pitchers with at least 150 batters faced (which for some reason is the only way to filter that leaderboard). That’s 61 points higher than his actual wOBA of .236. In that group, only Jon Lester and Felix Pena have a larger difference (ie are luckier).

A .225 BABIP is very unusual. Here’s a whole article about it. Basically as someone mentioned above, .270 is about the lowest you can reasonably expect over the long term.

I’d love to be wrong since I have German in dynasty, but xFIP and SIERA have been good to me over the years. In fact, half the reason I have German in dynasty is because last season he had a 3.94 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA, which convinced me to take a flier on him this offseason.

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11 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

What adjusted/estimated stats are you looking at? If there’s some that suggest German hasn’t been lucky, I’d love to learn about them.

He has a 3.85 xFIP. That ranks him 39th among qualified starters. His 3.86 SIERA ranks him 34th.

His Statcast xwOBA is .297, which ranks him 34th among pitchers with at least 150 batters faced (which for some reason is the only way to filter that leaderboard). That’s 61 points higher than his actual wOBA of .236. In that group, only Jon Lester and Felix Pena have a larger difference (ie are luckier).

A .225 BABIP is very unusual. Here’s a whole article about it. Basically as someone mentioned above, .270 is about the lowest you can reasonably expect over the long term.

I’d love to be wrong since I have German in dynasty, but xFIP and SIERA have been good to me over the years. In fact, half the reason I have German in dynasty is because last season he had a 3.94 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA, which convinced me to take a flier on him this offseason.

That all sounds about right to me. I own him in multiple dynasty leagues and I don’t look at him as a top 20 SP going forward but I think he can fit as a 20-40 range SP , and those stats you quoted back that up. Certainly noone is offering a return in trade as if German was a top 20 SP , so I think most people have the same view on him. He’s off to a really good start, will probably normalize as the season progresses, and should end up in a good spot , which will still be far and above my expectations for him entering this season. I’m a happy dynasty owner and Yankees fan. Until he inevitably gets injured , that is, because 2019 Yankees. 

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