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LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, AirForceOne said:

Anyone else have McCoy as a prime bounce-back candidate? 

No. In fact there are no Bills on my draft sheet.

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3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Mccoy had more than 500 yards last season and that team was dreadful on offense.  would be extremely disappointing in what could be his final campaign.   It was survival mode for Allen and McCoy had zero room to work.   Actual qb play from the pocket would be a great thing for shady and the bills.  

 

If McCoy gets the carries he got last year, 500's no problem, but if they're rotating in 3 guys he might not get as many attempts..     The overall point of the Allen sidebar was that his presence can hurt the backs.   

 

One potential thing to look at- they have a soft first few weeks- Jets, Giants, Bengals.   McCoy's likely getting first crack here, and he's got a chance to do damage on early season fresh legs.  He had maybe one actual strong game last year, it was vs the Jets.  If you get him for peanuts and he starts hot, he's a potential sell high player.  

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On 6/14/2019 at 4:01 PM, BrianM said:

If McCoy gets the carries he got last year, 500's no problem, but if they're rotating in 3 guys he might not get as many attempts..     The overall point of the Allen sidebar was that his presence can hurt the backs.   

One potential thing to look at- they have a soft first few weeks- Jets, Giants, Bengals.   McCoy's likely getting first crack here, and he's got a chance to do damage on early season fresh legs.  He had maybe one actual strong game last year, it was vs the Jets.  If you get him for peanuts and he starts hot, he's a potential sell high player.  


I don't think Buffalo has any intention of rotating in 3 guys. I've been following this training camp pretty closely, and one thing that's surprised me is that Singletary is getting a good amount of first-team reps -- and looking good doing it. He's busted some big plays, and the coaching staff is gaining confidence in him. 


To me, this means McCoy is very likely still on the cut/trading block. Entering training camp, you don't really know what you have in a rookie. If he's not quite ready, then obviously you have to keep guys like McCoy and Gore. But if Singletary really is exceeding expectations (and to a further extent, if Yeldon is showing to be capable), then McCoy becomes much more expendable. It's a smart decision to see what happens in training camp before deciding McCoy's fate, as injuries happen (not just with Buffalo, but other teams) and a need may suddenly arise. 

Remember Buffalo shocked everyone 2 years ago by cutting Jonathan Williams prior to week 1. At the time, Williams was considered by many to be one of the top backups in the league, and he was a popular handcuff. My point is the Bills have no problem making tough decisions, and it's very possible that the front office starts to seriously consider offers for McCoy after the first couple preseason games. You have to wonder if a reunion with Andy Reid is a possibility in KC, or maybe even San Diego or Dallas. 
 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


I don't think Buffalo has any intention of rotating in 3 guys. I've been following this training camp pretty closely, and one thing that's surprised me is that Singletary is getting a good amount of first-team reps -- and looking good doing it. He's busted some big plays, and the coaching staff is gaining confidence in him. 


To me, this means McCoy is very likely still on the cut/trading block. Entering training camp, you don't really know what you have in a rookie. If he's not quite ready, then obviously you have to keep guys like McCoy and Gore. But if Singletary really is exceeding expectations (and to a further extent, if Yeldon is showing to be capable), then McCoy becomes much more expendable. It's a smart decision to see what happens in training camp before deciding McCoy's fate, as injuries happen (not just with Buffalo, but other teams) and a need may suddenly arise. 

Remember Buffalo shocked everyone 2 years ago by cutting Jonathan Williams prior to week 1. At the time, Williams was considered by many to be one of the top backups in the league, and he was a popular handcuff. My point is the Bills have no problem making tough decisions, and it's very possible that the front office starts to seriously consider offers for McCoy after the first couple preseason games. You have to wonder if a reunion with Andy Reid is a possibility in KC, or maybe even San Diego or Dallas. 
 

Good take-  thanks for the updates.  A few thoughts piggybacking off your post :

 

Totally agree they should trade Shady.   Don’t see them cutting him.  J Williams has done nothing but bounce around the leagues practice squad circuit since his release.   He wasn’t any good.    Buffalos OLine just made it look that way.  Also wouldn’t expect the old war horses to get a ton of reps in camp.   Shady needs to be fresh...not camp reps.  If nothing changes he will easily lead the rbs in touches.  

Edited by Impreza178

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I'm in the camp of "they would've cut Shady by now if that was going to be the end", and i think i'm still there.  I did say that maybe Singletary having a good camp will cause them to revisit this somewhere (I think on the zero RB board), but i still think its a no.   They get asked about Shady in every.single.press.conference and the answer is the same.   He's a popular guy with his teammates, and while its economically smart to retain 6 mil or so to roll over for next year, it'll do a little morale damage to those who now can't trust what the coach/GM say about them no matter what.   

Another thing worth pointing out amongst the local beat writers i trust most (basically two guys)-  TJ Yeldon is not looking good at all.   For them to really get bold, i think you need confidence in both Singletary and Yeldon.   Gore's fine and not going anywhere, but having an underperforming Yeldon and a raw rookie behind him are tough selling points.   

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Is there anything to see with that rugby player, Christian Wade?  He busted off a 65 yard TD run on his only touch of the game.  Apparently he was a top pro rugby player and is an outstanding athlete.  I don't know much at all about his situation, and it sounds like he's pretty far off from actually competing for a spot on the 53-man roster.  But he's another intriguing athlete in that backfield.

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3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

Is there anything to see with that rugby player, Christian Wade?  He busted off a 65 yard TD run on his only touch of the game.  Apparently he was a top pro rugby player and is an outstanding athlete.  I don't know much at all about his situation, and it sounds like he's pretty far off from actually competing for a spot on the 53-man roster.  But he's another intriguing athlete in that backfield.

Apparently there's a clause somewhere in either his Bills or rugby contract that he's no allowed to be on an active NFL roster until 2020. The Bills are hoping to keep him on the practice squad this season as a red shirt year of sorts.

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1 minute ago, Olliemets said:

Apparently there's a clause somewhere in either his Bills or rugby contract that he's no allowed to be on an active NFL roster until 2020. The Bills are hoping to keep him on the practice squad this season as a red shirt year of sorts.

 

Would be interesting to see what happens if he gets a significant amount of touches in upcoming preseason games, and what happens.  If he could prove to be electric over a larger sample size, might kind of force their hands to put him on the team.  That said, it sounded like he's still even learning the position and sport, so he'd really have to be good to overcome that.

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4 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Would be interesting to see what happens if he gets a significant amount of touches in upcoming preseason games, and what happens.  If he could prove to be electric over a larger sample size, might kind of force their hands to put him on the team.  That said, it sounded like he's still even learning the position and sport, so he'd really have to be good to overcome that.

Almost no chance.   Every year these PS dynamos blow in and blow out rarely heard from again.   This team is already too deep at rb

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How sure are we that he dramatically declined last year versus was stuck in a terrible situation and unmotivated as a result? I like him as a late round flier. If he is even 70 percent of what he once was he will return a healthy profit at his draft cost.

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12 hours ago, Ace_King said:

How sure are we that he dramatically declined last year versus was stuck in a terrible situation and unmotivated as a result? I like him as a late round flier. If he is even 70 percent of what he once was he will return a healthy profit at his draft cost.

Cliffs don't work like that for RBs

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Ace_King said:

How sure are we that he dramatically declined last year versus was stuck in a terrible situation and unmotivated as a result? I like him as a late round flier. If he is even 70 percent of what he once was he will return a healthy profit at his draft cost.

Agreed. Give him 15 touches and he’ll be a bargain in the late single rounds.  And there’s always a chance for a beneficial trade. 

Edited by Impreza178
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I suppose there's a narrative here that a contract year plus a young buck behind him drives McCoy to push hard, but I honestly dont think motivation was his problem last year, I think the miles just added up plus of course the lack of anything around him.   I dont think there's any way he hits top 20 RB.  Even if he's starting to show signs of 2017 LeSean, I imagine his usage will be cut to keep him fresh.   

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Just now, BrianM said:

I suppose there's a narrative here that a contract year plus a young buck behind him drives McCoy to push hard, but I honestly dont think motivation was his problem last year, I think the miles just added up plus of course the lack of anything around him.   I dont think there's any way he hits top 20 RB.  Even if he's starting to show signs of 2017 LeSean, I imagine his usage will be cut to keep him fresh.   

 

Reflected in price. He’s one of the last starting rbs on the board 

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Reflected in price. He’s one of the last starting rbs on the board 

 

Yeah, fair enough I guess.   A late value guy?  Sure.  A bargain?  Unlikely.    Best case scenario I think is that he's a better real life player than fantasy, but maybe worth a bench spot and he pays off in the right matchups.   I've grabbed him rarely in mocks but it has happened.

I feel like i said this here already, sorry if a double post.   His one studly game last year was vs the Jets.  That's the week one opponent, and they lost Williamson already.  McCoy appears to be at full health, I don't recall even a mild injury in camp.   He should be getting first crack at this, and for me, if he doesn't have a strong week 1, I'm cutting bait.   

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He is probably worth a start week 1 against the Jets but after that its desperation to rely on him for the season

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4 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Yeah, fair enough I guess.   A late value guy?  Sure.  A bargain?  Unlikely.    Best case scenario I think is that he's a better real life player than fantasy, but maybe worth a bench spot and he pays off in the right matchups.   I've grabbed him rarely in mocks but it has happened.

I feel like i said this here already, sorry if a double post.   His one studly game last year was vs the Jets.  That's the week one opponent, and they lost Williamson already.  McCoy appears to be at full health, I don't recall even a mild injury in camp.   He should be getting first crack at this, and for me, if he doesn't have a strong week 1, I'm cutting bait.   

Fair enough.   Let’s hope for better this season.   Allen being better in the passing game and not one dimensional EVERY PLAY would be huge for shady.    

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Picked him in Round 10 of a .5 PPR 12 team redraft.  I'm not expecting much but if the QB play improves with Allen under center, and shady can get 60% of the share, he'll provide some decent to solid depth.  A possible best case scenario is he's released, or traded, and ends up on one of the teams in dire need of a RB like Houston or TB.  If the later happened he'd be in the RB2 range imo.  Still might be in Buffalo depending on how the touches get spread out.  At the point where he's getting drafted you're basically looking for bye week or injury replacement depth and/or lotto tickets. 

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McCoy is going 118th on Yahoo and 124th on ESPN. He is being drafted in the handcuff range. If he returns even RB3 value it's a solid profit on his cost.

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He's being taken at his floor, which makes him one of the better bargains around.  All you're buying is upside.  Granted, the odds of him hitting that upside are low, but there is a path.  And if he doesn't hit, you haven't lost anything.  Sort of insane how late he's going.  

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McCoy cut. Frank Gore worth a pickup? Assuming Singletary is gone...

 

 

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