PackersFan1979

LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook

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I really need to figure out a way to divest myself of this backfield.

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43 minutes ago, affliction said:

I don’t know if that will work with Tyreke and Kelce on the field 

 

It will work with Moore on the field

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Seems to have "emerged" this week and still did nothing. Bottom line is we're not gonna get a startable RB in this offense unless one of them gets hurt. 

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Last 2 games have hurt Damien's stock more than Shadys.  Depending on Mahomes injury they should lean on the run more and it's clear Shady is much more productive with his touches, and just looks better, and is coming out on the right side of the committee.  Lets hope Reid realizes this too. If anything this game didnt hurt Shady's stock even as a trade piece if anything.  Still hard to trust in your lineup unfortunately.

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1 hour ago, Yanksfan06 said:

Seems like the clear back to me. He still has some juice left too.  

He's the clear leader in the backfield but it's still a committee. McCoy has clearly lost a step compared to his Philly days but he isn't washed up as some would lead you to believe. The problem is the Chiefs (to this point in the season) do not use their RBs enough to make any of them a locked in fantasy starter. McCoy is your best bet but even still he's a Flex play.

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5 minutes ago, munde53 said:

He's the clear leader in the backfield but it's still a committee. McCoy has clearly lost a step compared to his Philly days but he isn't washed up as some would lead you to believe. The problem is the Chiefs (to this point in the season) do not use their RBs enough to make any of them a locked in fantasy starter. McCoy is your best bet but even still he's a Flex play.

 

Agreed the bigger issue is the lack of focus on the run game as a whole - rather than McCoy's snap share.  But I think Mahomes' injury helps here.  Chiefs can't just air it out vertically every game.  i think more short passes and carries are to come.  

Damien's dreadful performance should cement McCoy's lead back status.  I think he has a 70% touch ceiling going forward - decent chance he can get close to that.  

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76 yards is ok.  He didn't score.

Two things concern me.  First, it looked like Darrel was the glb.  Not good. Second, when they were way up, it was Damien killing the clock.  If that continues going forward, we will only have a between the 20s RB who can get ok yardage but needs to score from distance.

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14 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

76 yards is ok.  He didn't score.

Two things concern me.  First, it looked like Darrel was the glb.  Not good. Second, when they were way up, it was Damien killing the clock.  If that continues going forward, we will only have a between the 20s RB who can get ok yardage but needs to score from distance.

This was always all he would ever be in this offense which is why I never understood the hype. Your description is EXACTLY what he is. Sure he may get 15 rushes and a catch or two, but unless he scores from 10+ he's not having a great week. Add to that no hurry-up dumpoffs and you have a VERY low-end RB2, realistically a RB3. 

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if Reid wasn’t worried about running a QB sneak with Mahomes’ ankle banged up the way it was, I’m not worried about Reid giving his best runner (McCoy) carries when they need to punch it into the end zone. 

Mahomes’ injury seriously worries me.

According to Google, dislocated knees take 6 weeks to heal. 

I don’t see anyone in this offense producing without Mahomes. The O line isn’t great to begin with and is also missing starters including their left tackle. I don’t see any of the RBs having much success if things go like they did last night. What happens if teams stack the box because Matt Moore stinks? 😬

not good

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Still own shares in McCoy, Darrel, and Damien. 3x bench spots.

 

McCoy seemed to be the lead - but not much was done (DEN run defense has been great against the rum lately though).

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I actually dropped him in a 10 team league before the game last night. It felt (and feels) good. Not saying he shouldn’t be rostered anywhere, but there wasn’t room for him on my team and there was no trade interest. 

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8 hours ago, ColoWrex said:

I think we all need to let go of the dream that any back for KC will be meaningful this year.

I disagree with this. I think the Williams debacle ends soon and with Mahomes out they need to run the ball more. McCoy's value increased dramatically last night.

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7 hours ago, ColoWrex said:

I really need to figure out a way to divest myself of this backfield.

Yeah man. The allure is 'Kc has the best offense' but I may cut bait for a lottery ticket if Mahomes is seriously hurt.

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Just now, yanksman said:

I disagree with this. I think the Williams debacle ends soon and with Mahomes out they need to run the ball more. McCoy's value increased dramatically last night.

Sure they could run more but that could just mean more carries for Damien in the RBBC. Damien isn't going anywhere because Mccoy is not a workhorse at this stage of his career. He also doesn't look like the GLB. 

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4 minutes ago, affliction said:

Sure they could run more but that could just mean more carries for Damien in the RBBC. Damien isn't going anywhere because Mccoy is not a workhorse at this stage of his career. He also doesn't look like the GLB. 

He hasn't been a GLB in years. If you thought otherwise you were misinformed.

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1 minute ago, yanksman said:

He hasn't been a GLB in years. If you thought otherwise you were misinformed.

So his value doesn't dramatically increase with Moore under center. You think he gets 20 carries now?

He isn't even the #1 receiving option out of the backfield; his value actually decreases with Moore because you can't expect more scoring opportunities. He might get 5 more carries with Moore. You are misinformed if you think the Williams' will just fade away because Mahomes is hurt.

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13 minutes ago, affliction said:

So his value doesn't dramatically increase with Moore under center. You think he gets 20 carries now?

He isn't even the #1 receiving option out of the backfield; his value actually decreases with Moore because you can't expect more scoring opportunities. He might get 5 more carries with Moore. You are misinformed if you think the Williams' will just fade away because Mahomes is hurt.

Who might that be? Looking at raw numbers all three are neck and neck on catches. 
My take. Damien’s value is plummeting, the running back to own is McCoy. Should anybody drop Damien well that is your decision. 
 

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21 minutes ago, affliction said:

So his value doesn't dramatically increase with Moore under center. You think he gets 20 carries now?

He isn't even the #1 receiving option out of the backfield; his value actually decreases with Moore because you can't expect more scoring opportunities. He might get 5 more carries with Moore. You are misinformed if you think the Williams' will just fade away because Mahomes is hurt.

 

I definitely think he gets more carries now.  Do you think they're going to run the same pass happy offense that they did with Mahomes?

McCoy operated as the 1A yesterday.  The touch battle didn't get close until Damien had 3-4 carries in the final drive when they were up 30-6.

They'll have a 10 days to install a balanced game plan.  Rbs gonna get more work and McCoy showed last night that he should get the majority of it.  How many more games do we need to see with McCoy averaging over 5ypc and Damien under 2ypc?

The chiefs are taking a downgrade in offense but they were arguably the best offense in the league.  If Moore can be half decent, the chiefs offense can be like the jags or something.  Somewhere in the bottom half of offenses but not the bottom.  Heck they are still probably better than Denver's offense.

Edited by Brownsfan74

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16 minutes ago, affliction said:

Sure they could run more but that could just mean more carries for Damien in the RBBC. Damien isn't going anywhere because Mccoy is not a workhorse at this stage of his career. He also doesn't look like the GLB. 

 

Damien has now rushed 41 times for 70 yards which equals 1.7 ypc. You’re right... Damien isn’t going anywhere.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I definitely think he gets more Carrie's now.  Do you think they're going to run the same pass happy offense that they did with Mahomes?

McCoy operated as the 1A yesterday.  The touch battle didn't get close until Damien had 3-4 carries in the final drive when they were up 30-6.

They'll have a 10 days to install a balanced game plan.  Rbs gonna get more work and McCoy showed last night that he should get the majority of it.  How many more games do we need to see with McCoy averaging over 5ypc and Damien under 2ypc?

The chiefs are taking a downgrade in offense but they were arguably the best offense in the league.  If Moore can be half decent, the chiefs offense can be like the jags or something.  Somewhere in the bottom half of offenses but not the bottom.  Heck they are still probably better than Denver's offense.

 

Depending on which Carrie, that’s very likely more valuable than what he’s getting right now. 📈

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5 minutes ago, gufomel said:

 

Depending on which Carrie, that’s very likely more valuable than what he’s getting right now. 📈

 

Spell check is a pain.

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10 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

Damien has now rushed 41 times for 70 yards which equals 1.7 ypc. You’re right... Damien isn’t going anywhere.

 

 

Damien(i dont own him) is trash but give Mccoy (I own him) 20 touches and he will be in an ambulance.

 

I forgot I'm in the Mccoy thread though where optimism is strong.

Edited by affliction

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5 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

This was always all he would ever be in this offense which is why I never understood the hype. Your description is EXACTLY what he is. Sure he may get 15 rushes and a catch or two, but unless he scores from 10+ he's not having a great week. Add to that no hurry-up dumpoffs and you have a VERY low-end RB2, realistically a RB3. 

 

Agree/disagree. You're right that his value currently is low FLEX territory, but the problem isn't McCoy, the problem is that they're giving carries to Williams that should be going to McCoy.

 

McCoy crazily ISN'T getting 15 rushes like you suggested, in fact, if he was he'd be on pace for 80.55 yards/game and 1,289 rushing yards for the year (which is obviously better than low flex territory). Instead, he's bafflingly getting 8.6 carries a game (or 10 per game if you throw out week 5 when Reid was playing against McCoy in his fantasy league and somehow gave him literally 0 carries--and surprise, surprise--the Chiefs lost). 

 

Instead, they're giving Damien Williams 8.2 carries per game, which he's rumbled to an impressive total of 40 rushes for 71 yards. If you recall, the Chiefs ran their infamous QB sneak on 4th and 1, which suggests that they believe by literally falling forward you should be able to pick up ~1.5 yards, so Damien Williams has effectively been 0.21/yards per carry better than just falling forward. For Williams to get the prorated 1,289 yard season that McCoy would be on pace for if he actually got 15 rushes a game, Damien would need 755 carries, or 47 carries per game.

 

So yes, if Reid decides to continue with the current split, McCoy isn't a great fantasy option unless he gets a lucky TD. However, the reason I'm holding is because at some point you have to imagine that the Chiefs have to realize that they're giving nearly equal carries to a guy who is making Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy look shifty, while they have another guy who is literally doing over 3 times better per carry on the year. If they do realize that, and get him 15 carries and a catch or two per game like you suggested, then he becomes a solid RB2 with just those touches, and rather than depending on a TD for fantasy relevance, he becomes a low-end RB1 on the weeks he scores.

 

Edited by vercrazy

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