PackersFan1979

LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

Agree/disagree. You're right that his value currently is low FLEX territory, but the problem isn't McCoy, the problem is that they're giving carries to Williams that should be going to McCoy.

 

McCoy isn't getting 15 rushes like you suggested, in fact, if he was he'd be on pace for 80.55 yards/game and 1,289 rushing yards for the year (which is obviously better than low flex territory). Instead, he's bafflingly getting 8.6 carries a game (or 10 per game if you throw out week 5 when Reid was playing against McCoy in his fantasy league and somehow gave him literally 0 carries--and surprise, surprise--the Chiefs lost). 

 

Instead, they're giving Damien Williams 8.2 carries per game, which he's rumbled to an impressive total of 40 rushes for 71 yards. If you recall, the Chiefs ran their infamous QB sneak on 4th and 1, which suggests that they believe by literally falling forward you should be able to pick up ~1.5 yards, so Damien Williams has effectively been 0.21/yards per carry better than just falling forward. For Williams to get the prorated 1,289 yard season that McCoy would be on pace for if he actually got 15 rushes a game, Damien would need 755 carries, or 47 carries per game.

 

So yes, if Reid decides to continue with the current split, McCoy isn't a great fantasy option unless he gets a lucky TD. However, the reason I'm holding is because at some point you have to imagine that the Chiefs have to realize that they're giving nearly equal carries to a guy who is making Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy look shifty, while they have another guy who is literally doing over 3 times better per carry on the year. If they do realize that, and get him 15 carries and a catch or two per game like you suggested, then he becomes a solid RB2 with just those touches, and rather than depending on a TD for fantasy relevance, he becomes a low-end RB1 on the weeks he scores.

 

Agreed. I will at least see how the touches look next week and go from there. I don't know if I trust Reid and If Damien is still in the gameplan I'm done.

Edited by affliction

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3 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

However, the reason I'm holding is because at some point you have to imagine that the Chiefs have to realize   👈

 

that they're giving nearly equal carries to a guy who is making Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy look shifty, while they have another guy who is literally doing over 3 times better per carry on the year. If they do realize that, and get him 15 carries and a catch or two per game like you suggested, then he becomes a solid RB2 with just those touches, and rather than depending on a TD for fantasy relevance, he becomes a low-end RB1 on the weeks he scores.

 

 🤣

🤔

😂

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6 minutes ago, affliction said:

Damien(i dont own him) is trash but give Mccoy (I own him) 20 touches and he will be in an ambulance.

 

I forgot I'm in the Mccoy thread though where optimism is strong.

 

Damien had 9 carries last night for 7 yards. He’s now at 1.7YPC on the season and you’re suggesting/believe that he could possibly get more carries moving forward.

All this coming from a guy that claims he doesn’t own Damien. 

The delusion is strong. 

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 🤣

🤔

😂

 

Wish the sad reaction still existed because I'd give you one, the fact that the whole hope rests on Reid realizing he's being dumb doesn't lend to heavy optimism. Still, the off-chance he does makes it so that I can't drop.

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2 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

Wish the sad reaction still existed because I'd give you one, the fact that the whole hope rests on Reid realizing he's being dumb doesn't lend to heavy optimism. Still, the off-chance he does makes it so that I can't drop.

 

It's the same every year with Reid, but usually something so bad it can't be ignored happens and he wakes up. I'd say going 1-2 over the last 3 games and losing your already injured league MVP QB because of a ridiculously stupid play call will rattle his cage. I can almost guarantee that sports media will start asking "is Reid the right guy for the job? Can he get it done? Etc...". The fire was turned up on Andy last night, the win won't keep him safe from constant criticism.

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7 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

Damien had 9 carries last night for 7 yards. He’s now at 1.7YPC on the season and you’re suggesting/believe that he could possibly get more carries moving forward.

All this coming from a guy that claims he doesn’t own Damien. 

The delusion is strong. 

And you're delusional thinking Reid is going to give a 31 yr old RB 20 touches who looks in agony after every tackle.

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20 minutes ago, affliction said:

Damien(i dont own him) is trash but give Mccoy (I own him) 20 touches and he will be in an ambulance.

 

I forgot I'm in the Mccoy thread though where optimism is strong.

People keep bringing this to the table. McCoy is old he is injury prone. 
Some of you should read the memo it has been stated numerous times. McCoy is actually a workhorse that is not injury prone. 

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1 hour ago, affliction said:

So his value doesn't dramatically increase with Moore under center. You think he gets 20 carries now?

He isn't even the #1 receiving option out of the backfield; his value actually decreases with Moore because you can't expect more scoring opportunities. He might get 5 more carries with Moore. You are misinformed if you think the Williams' will just fade away because Mahomes is hurt.

I think Williams will fade away because hes TERRIBLE and he always has been (except for a 4 game stretch late last year).

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2 minutes ago, affliction said:

And you're delusional thinking Reid is going to give a 31 yr old RB 20 touches who looks in agony after every tackle.

 

When did I ever say anything about 20 touches? 

But if you actually owned McCoy like you claim why wouldn’t you hope that he gets 20 touches to see what he can produce? I don’t know about you but I actually want the players that I own to get as many touches as possible. 

No Real McCoy owner was worried about scrub Damien being around long term. Especially after his performance last night... he’s probably played himself to the bench yet here you are thinking Damien might possibly get even more carries moving forward.  I can’t even. 

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Conventional logic would say since the Chiefs just lost their best player for multiple weeks (at best) they should start running their best RB into the ground regardless of age/health/whatever because:

1. They don't really owe McCoy anything beyond this season, so if he gets worn down its not a long term loss.

2. They don't really have strong competition in the division so even without Mahomes they can still win it.

3.  The urgency of the season has been intensified in that they have to become craftier to win games (assuming Moore isn't going to light it up).

unfortunately conventional logic is rare in the NFL so we will probably still be seeing 9 McCoy carries with 7 Damien carries as well

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On a more serious note, last night just further cemented McCoys status in the backfield IMO. Its becoming painfully obvious that Damien needs to be completely worked out and a 60/40 split with McCoy/Darrel. Damien offers no attributes that cannot be matched by either McCoy or Darrel. McCoy is the best runner, while not necessarily the fastest he remains shifty and elusive with great vision. Is improving in pass pro and as we all know can catch the ball well and be explosive in the passing game. Darrel offers a more bruising back who is likely the most explosive player in the backfield in short yardage situations. Darrel is at worst on par with Damien in pass pro. He has also proved to be reliable in the passing game.

Using McCoy as the 1st and 2nd down back with Darrel on 3rd down and possibly even short yardage situations makes most sense for the Chiefs IMO. 60/40 split likely makes both McCoy and Darrel fantasy relevant in 12+ teamers. 

Lastly, prayers up for Mahomes with such an unfortunate injury. Hopefully no ligament damage in his knee and he can return in roughly a month. Something I know about dislocations though, once it happens once it is more prone to happening again

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I watched the whole game and it looked like McCoy had around 60% of the snaps, probably because he was the only one in the backfield making plays. Heres the actual breakdown:

McCoy  43%

Damien  29%

Darrel   28%

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24 minutes ago, TomBradyDaGOAT said:

I watched the whole game and it looked like McCoy had around 60% of the snaps, probably because he was the only one in the backfield making plays. Heres the actual breakdown:

McCoy  43%

Damien  29%

Darrel   28%


RB LeSean McCoy led Chiefs running backs in offensive snaps (25), and the play-calling was more balanced with him on the field than it has been lately. McCoy saw 12 pass plays and 13 run plays.

McCoy beginning to eat into passing down/pass protection work? Hmmm

If McCoy eats we all eat!

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Still don't know how effective he'll be. Looks like they put in Williams in GL situations. I think teams will make Matt Moore beat them and if he is able to get the ball to Kelce and Hill, things will open up for McCoy some.

His floor is low and his ceiling seems to float around 15 points, but that TD seems more and more unlikely unless he breaks one.

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57 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

Still don't know how effective he'll be. Looks like they put in Williams in GL situations. I think teams will make Matt Moore beat them and if he is able to get the ball to Kelce and Hill, things will open up for McCoy some.

His floor is low and his ceiling seems to float around 15 points, but that TD seems more and more unlikely unless he breaks one.


Lets look at the facts here for the season inside the 10 yard line. 

McCoy: (7 games played)

9 rushing att for 13 yards, 2TD = 1.285 rushing att inside the 10 per game

1 tgt for 4 yards = .111 targets per game inside the 10 yard line.

Damien: (5 games played)

3 rushing att for 3 yards, 1TD = .60 rushing att inside the 10 per game

1 tgt for -1 yards = .20 targets per game inside the 10 yard line

Darrel: (7 games played)

6 rushing att for 4 yards, 2TD = .8571 att inside the 10 per game

0 tgts inside the 10 = 0 targets per game inside the 10 yard line.

....................................

Now lets look at redzone (inside the 20 yard line) opportunities over the last 2 weeks

McCoy: 3 rushing att for 6 yards = 1.5 redzone looks per game

Damien: 1 rushing att for 1 yard, 1 tgt for 14 yards TD = 1 redzone look per game

Darrel: 2 rushing att for 1 = 1 redzone look per game

Only stat that would somewhat support your point is over the last two weeks, inside the ten both Darrel and McCoy have the same number of attempts and yards at 2 att for 1 yard; or 1 opportunity inside the 10 per game for both Darrel and McCoy. (Damien had 1 opp inside 10 over last 2 games; or .5 per game)

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I jumping ship here. Hate to do it but we have a 4 man bench and I'm 3-3... I just dont see Shady helping me win with my other options. The schedule gets tougher and I also dont see Reid giving McCoy a full workload. Good Luck.

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8 minutes ago, Mmiller186 said:

I jumping ship here. Hate to do it but we have a 4 man bench and I'm 3-3... I just dont see Shady helping me win with my other options. The schedule gets tougher and I also dont see Reid giving McCoy a full workload. Good Luck.

As long as Mahomes is out, I think that McCoy is an average bye week filler rb at best.  I decided to start him yesterday because I thought he would score at least a td but then the Mahomes injury happened.

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8 minutes ago, Mmiller186 said:

I jumping ship here. Hate to do it but we have a 4 man bench and I'm 3-3... I just dont see Shady helping me win with my other options. The schedule gets tougher and I also dont see Reid giving McCoy a full workload. Good Luck.

4 person bench is tough. He probably is near the cut line when benches are that small.  

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They need to give McCoy the majority of the touches and be done with it.  He's the best back they have. Dwill should never run the ball unless it's a draw on a 3rd and long.

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Everyone relax and put your faith in McCoy. KC will have a more balanced offense without Mahomes.

 

Moore will most likely use McCoy as his security blanket for those short dump-offs.

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1 hour ago, TomBradyDaGOAT said:


Lets look at the facts here for the season inside the 10 yard line. 

McCoy: (7 games played)

9 rushing att for 13 yards, 2TD = 1.285 rushing att inside the 10 per game

1 tgt for 4 yards = .111 targets per game inside the 10 yard line.

Damien: (5 games played)

3 rushing att for 3 yards, 1TD = .60 rushing att inside the 10 per game

1 tgt for -1 yards = .20 targets per game inside the 10 yard line

Darrel: (7 games played)

6 rushing att for 4 yards, 2TD = .8571 att inside the 10 per game

0 tgts inside the 10 = 0 targets per game inside the 10 yard line.

....................................

Now lets look at redzone (inside the 20 yard line) opportunities over the last 2 weeks

McCoy: 3 rushing att for 6 yards = 1.5 redzone looks per game

Damien: 1 rushing att for 1 yard, 1 tgt for 14 yards TD = 1 redzone look per game

Darrel: 2 rushing att for 1 = 1 redzone look per game

Only stat that would somewhat support your point is over the last two weeks, inside the ten both Darrel and McCoy have the same number of attempts and yards at 2 att for 1 yard; or 1 opportunity inside the 10 per game for both Darrel and McCoy. (Damien had 1 opp inside 10 over last 2 games; or .5 per game)

 

Lets sum it up with what really matters, fantasy points. McCoy has 14.3 points over the last 3 games and thats in PPR.  Drop city, there are JAGs on your waiver wire doing that and defenses are going to stack the box without Mahomes because no one on the planet is scared of Matt Moore lol  

Edited by Dexter75

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15 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Lets sum it up with what really matters, fantasy points. McCoy has 14.3 points over the last 3 games and thats in PPR.  Drop city, there are JAGs on your waiver wire doing that and defenses are going to stack the box without Mahomes because no one on the planet is scared of Matt Moore lol  


You still holding your boy Damien?

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17 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Lets sum it up with what really matters, fantasy points. McCoy has 14.3 points over the last 3 games and thats in PPR.  Drop city, there are JAGs on your waiver wire doing that and defenses are going to stack the box without Mahomes because no one on the planet is scared of Matt Moore lol  


Doesn’t seem like the right time to drop Shady.   If they’re running the football-   Chances are he’s the one doing it.   And there will be plenty of short passes to keep Moore from forcing the ball.    
 

Mccoy is either a flex start or benched...not dropped.  

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