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oswald737

Chris Paddack 2019 Outlook

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14 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Basically all command and Change. The FB has velocity, but didn't impress me movement wise. Its going to play as a plus pitch due to his command and change though. If there is ever a guy that could get away with being a 2 pitch pitcher. It's going to be him for sure. Command is the 3rd pitch they sometimes say.

 

My understanding is his lack of feel for spin is going to prevent him from ever having a solid breaking ball. That doesn't mean he can't have one as a show me pitch though. Just for the sake of keeping hitters guessing and off-balance. There is probably going to some 3rd time thru the order hiccups this year in store. Still, from a WHIP and K stand point. He should be solid.

I watched him too and his arsenal reminded me of Marco Estrada. His ceiling is obviously much higher given that his velocity is about 94-95 while Estrada’s peaked at 91 in his career. As an owner I’m happy with what I saw yesterday. I think he’ll provide good value this year, health permitting.

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18 hours ago, pbjfb said:

The Padres have a fantastic rotation or they just played the Giants?

They have a rotation that has some upside and potential, but yes they also played the Giants, who when you associate the fantasy game to reality the one thing is we know fantasy is about hitters and in my 12-team auction a few weeks back that uses 5OF, and CI/Mi the Giants had only 1 hitter to go off the board - Posey.   If I were playing DFS I would be looking to face that team a lot.  

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16 hours ago, tucker26 said:

Think lower pitch counts are normal for almost everyone the first couple starts. Especially a rookie on an eventually limit. I would not worry but something to keep an eye on.  

I think his spot came up at that point as well I want to say to lead-off the inning - so it was probably a situation where it was like he was maybe going to go one more but since his spot came up, no since pushing.  

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On 4/1/2019 at 1:35 AM, 96mnc said:

 

That's going to be the norm.  5 or 6 max.  

 

So 30 or so starts = 160 or so IP in your opinion?

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2 hours ago, CraftyRighty said:

So 30 or so starts = 160 or so IP in your opinion?

 

He only pitched 90 last season between High-A and AA.  If the team is somehow able to contend, you could see them pushing him the way the Dodgers did to Buehler last year, but going from 90 to 160 would be a miracle.  Consider anything over 110 a bonus.

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Also it could very well be that the Padres use Buehler as a cautionary tale given his slow ramp up this season to date.  I'm not a strict Verducci principle guy, so 30 more innings seem like a safe baseline.  I would not expect anything over 150 innings pitched this year. I'm thinking 130-140 is a solid prognostication/guesstimate.

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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

He only pitched 90 last season between High-A and AA.  If the team is somehow able to contend, you could see them pushing him the way the Dodgers did to Buehler last year, but going from 90 to 160 would be a miracle.  Consider anything over 110 a bonus.

 

Tough to get a $ value trying to pry him away from his owner then.

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wacha was pretty good his rookie year throwing basically only fb and change.

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6 hours ago, CraftyRighty said:

 

So 30 or so starts = 160 or so IP in your opinion?

 

I can't see 30 starts.   I think they'll skip him here and there and keep it more around 25ish.  With the new schedule and the number of off days teams will be able to do some creative things with their studying starting rotation schedules.

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2 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

What happened today? Only 3.2 innings.

He had thrown 89 pitches and walked a couple batters in a row.

I was just watching the box score, but I didn't see any curveballs at all, just fastballs and changeups. Not sure if he was struggling with control or just nibbling too much because he doesn't have a third pitch.

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2 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

He had thrown 89 pitches and walked a couple batters in a row.

I was just watching the box score, but I didn't see any curveballs at all, just fastballs and changeups. Not sure if he was struggling with control or just nibbling too much because he doesn't have a third pitch.

Card team was having good AB's and fouling a lot of his pitches and working counts. He did throw a couple of curve balls but at this point in his development its just a show me pitch. 

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Its a nice slow 12-6 curve. But I only saw one of them come in as a strike. A couple were very close. Cards fouled off a lot of pitches and ran up his count. He had 32 pitches in the 2nd inning alone. Walked 4 I think. 

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

He had thrown 89 pitches and walked a couple batters in a row.

I was just watching the box score, but I didn't see any curveballs at all, just fastballs and changeups. Not sure if he was struggling with control or just nibbling too much because he doesn't have a third pitch.

 

I watched the game. I think his plan was to only go FB and CH the first time through the lineup. I wanna say he threw his CB first pitch to carpenter and first pitch to goldy the second time through through the lineup. At this point in his development it seems to be more of a show me pitch. He threw it a handful of times after that first time through. Most of them were thrown high in the zone/out of the zone outside and/or high except for maybe one in the dirt. Seemed to be a pitch he threw to to get an easy strike due to surprise factor. It’s definitely not a swing and miss pitch at this point and I honestly think all of them were taken this game.

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99% sure Paddack threw an ugly show me curve to Wong during his first time through (which was high and outside). The Cardinal batters were just too good and too patient for him today, as it seemed like most ABs lasted at least 8 pitches - Molina made him his B. He should get a little more love from the Dbacks, but we'll see... Perhaps big league hitters may be too much for him at this point in time.

Defo not dropping, but will be extra curious about the next game, as the Dbacks were holding the highest team SLG in the MLB heading into today.

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Honestly, this guy is tough to own.  The talent is there but the babying (for better or worse, your call) is going to severely limit both his wins and QS.  You're basically starting only for ratios.

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Posted (edited)

Short leash again. Very frustrating. I love what he's doing, but Ws and QSs are stats for me and WHIP isn't. He's having the same effect for me that a middle reliever would. 

Edited by Bandito

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Doesn't surprise me. They did the same thing with Lucchessi last year. He was a pain in the a** to own.

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Rough 1st inning but got out of the jam and cruised the rest of the way

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