BrianM

2019 TE Draft Strategy

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23 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Hernia is a nothing injury. He'll be fine. 

He had surgery on it so I think it’s more than a nothing injury. He’s not even going to be training until the start of Tc 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Trey burton has a hernia. Opening the door for shaheen?

I was a big preseason believer in Burton thought he would be a kelce lite soaking up targets in the middle  paired with a mobile trubisky  but was outbid on him and now Nagy  and his unpredictability has turned me off completely to any Bears players until I can figure out the predictability of his unpredictability. . .😂 

Edited by dashoe
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Don't sleep on Adam Shaheen.  A lot of TD upside there.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I was a big preseason believer in Burton thought he would be a kelce lite soaking up targets in the middle  paired with a mobile trubisky  but was outbid on him and now Nagy  and his unpredictability has turned me off completely to any Bears players until I can figure out the predictability of his unpredictability. . .😂 

 

Same. I saw kelce with reid and ertz with doug peterson and just knew burton was next. I drafted burton then trubisky late hoping for a nice stack. Ended up not using either. I'm out on all bears guys too except maybe.. maybe david Montgomery 

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

He had surgery on it so I think it’s more than a nothing injury. He’s not even going to be training until the start of Tc 

 

It doesn't repair itself on its own. Your walls are busted inside. They open you up and slide some mesh inside you and tell you to take it easy for a few weeks. 

 

Surgery is necessary, but it is a fairly easy surgery IMO when you're otherwise referring to knees, feet, ankles, and shoulders. 

 

Hernia surgery is the surgery you hope you land on if you're an athlete and you spin a wheel that's full of injuries and necessary surgeries. 

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On 3/26/2019 at 1:05 PM, BrianM said:

I also feel like this year, in auction in particular, the top 3 TE's will cost even more than they have in the past.  I expect Kelce to be the most expensive TE ever in my auction, and Ertz will be just a little cheaper than him, Kittle just a little behind them.   That'll raise the stakes in terms of opportunity cost if you want to take the plunge.   I still think there's value in it, but in a deep league, its more of a sacrifice.   

I can't see myself spending 12-15 on anyone in the next tier, the usual going rate in my league.   Last year that group was Graham, Burton, Doyle, Walker, Rudolph, Olsen, and Engram.  Kittle was surprisingly a little cheaper than those, he's the only real success story (maybe Hooper i guess).  Ebron and Cook were undrafted.     

What do you expect the top 2-3 to go for?  We have some new owners and I fear one bidding overly high...I am hoping to get one of the top 3 for $15 or less. If I don't, I'll lay back and get someone on the cheap late because it's a mess after that.

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On 5/29/2019 at 12:29 PM, BrianM said:

FFC as well is my app.    Love that i can basically jump in a mock, its random enough to be both fun and informative, and if nobody else is there, i'm done in three minutes.  

Seeing that 7.05 when i look now makes me wonder if i've just gotten a lot of the outliers.    I've been active for a few weeks there, it could just be that he's risen recently.

Agree FFC is not bad for a litle info on relative worth (as the summer goes on hoping actual people will be doing it). ESPN has mock auctions but the prices are nuts and the computer simulated owners are a joke, so don't get much out of those. 

As for TEs, I am also wondering about the bargain basement approach, but hoping a mid-tier guy will be in that mix that shouldn't be.

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On 5/29/2019 at 1:33 PM, BrianM said:

 

I'll play too.  My whole reason for starting the thread was because i flamed out in that midrange last year.  

Guys I'd consider spending more than a buck on that i feel are not top guys, in order of preference- Graham, Herndon, Reed, Walker, Rudolph

Guys I'd consider as perfect for the 1 dollar or less thing (if they go higher, no thanks):  Doyle, Andrews, ASJ, Eifert, Woller, Fant, RSJ,  

Not pictured here because I dont really like them/expect them to cost more than I'd care to pay:  Greg Olsen, TJ Hockenson.  

 

 

I like Olsen as a $1 flyer. His big years are gone but if he stays healthy, should give some decent production. Not sure I'd touch any rookie TE though, they're almost always a bad play.

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, bomont said:

What do you expect the top 2-3 to go for?  We have some new owners and I fear one bidding overly high...I am hoping to get one of the top 3 for $15 or less. If I don't, I'll lay back and get someone on the cheap late because it's a mess after that.

If that's on a $200 budget, I would say no way. I don't see how Kelce goes for less than 40, and Kittle/Ertz should be only slightly cheaper.

$15 should net you Engram or Howard though, with a bit of luck.

Edited by Boudewijn

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2 hours ago, bomont said:

What do you expect the top 2-3 to go for?  We have some new owners and I fear one bidding overly high...I am hoping to get one of the top 3 for $15 or less. If I don't, I'll lay back and get someone on the cheap late because it's a mess after that.

 

Is your Budget $100?

 

Very low chance you get one for less than $30 on a typical $200 budget if it's PPR. 

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George Kittle is my guy this year, especially with Jimmy G coming back. The guy is a beast on the field and probably the most explosive after the catch. 49ers are going get him the ball a lot this year. 

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Yeah but teams will key on him big time. And last year is the kind of year even the best of TEs rarely come close to 2 yrs in a row. Not saying he won't be good, but I have to wonder how much regression he will have. 

Maybe mid-teens % is a bit optimistic on the top guys. We'll see how the draft goes. Maybe if enough top RBs, WRs, and QBs go earlier I can sneak one in.

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So I am in a 2 te league wonder how that changes the draft? It’s also 2qb so looking to take te early and qb late to avoid the s--- mid tier te. Kelce 1st round pick 10-15 around?

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1 hour ago, Robrob129killa said:

So I am in a 2 te league wonder how that changes the draft? It’s also 2qb so looking to take te early and qb late to avoid the s--- mid tier te. Kelce 1st round pick 10-15 around?

In a 2 TE league, Kelce needs to go even before #10

 

There's nothing s--- about the mid tier this year.  Howard and Henry are great targets.

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9 hours ago, bomont said:

What do you expect the top 2-3 to go for?  We have some new owners and I fear one bidding overly high...I am hoping to get one of the top 3 for $15 or less. If I don't, I'll lay back and get someone on the cheap late because it's a mess after that.

 

I've always felt the TE's in my league go for cheaper than they should.   This year, Kelce is around $35, I bet.    The highest I remember Gronk going was 32.   

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3 hours ago, bomont said:

I don't agree, I think this is perfectly within the scope of this thread and this forum.

5 hours ago, Robrob129killa said:

So I am in a 2 te league wonder how that changes the draft? It’s also 2qb so looking to take te early and qb late to avoid the s--- mid tier te. Kelce 1st round pick 10-15 around?

That should be really interesting.

I think 2QB isn't too relevant, because QB20-24 right now is Cousins/Prescott/Trubisky/Carr/Stafford. All of those are still relatively safe (think 3000+ yds).

However 2TE is tougher; TE20-24 shouldn't give you much more than 300-400 yard on the season, and having a top tier TE will be a huge advantage. I think you would need to grab even a top-6 TE in the first 2-3 rounds, and I think the top-3 might be gone after pick 15 or so.

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i always tinker with dropping the $25-$35 bucks on kelce , ertz or kittle .   such a nice adv to have but there are a lot of options this year at $5 under.  

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19 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

I guess Mike Gesicki looked pretty bad last year.  No mention of him yet.  Not much at receiver in Miami...

Not much at QB either.

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20 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I don't agree, I think this is perfectly within the scope of this thread and this forum.

That should be really interesting.

I think 2QB isn't too relevant, because QB20-24 right now is Cousins/Prescott/Trubisky/Carr/Stafford. All of those are still relatively safe (think 3000+ yds).

However 2TE is tougher; TE20-24 shouldn't give you much more than 300-400 yard on the season, and having a top tier TE will be a huge advantage. I think you would need to grab even a top-6 TE in the first 2-3 rounds, and I think the top-3 might be gone after pick 15 or so.

10 team league so it’s not that bad. Where would you be drafting Kelce? Between 10-15. Ertz kittle 15-20? Howard Henry Engram in third round?

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Posted (edited)

Thinking dynasty, with the chance at production across the 2019 TE landscape on the cheap (albeit rookies don't generally perform at this position):

TE Dawson Knox Buf has been getting a lot of run in practice, setting up an apparent connection with Allen, and receiving a lot of coach praise while the other TEs are out due to injury. His college stats were inhibited due to the other mouths in the passing game to feed, Brown/Metcalf/Lodge, but Knox is physically gifted in his own right: 6'4" 254lbs, 4.58 40 and a 34.5" vertical

Another guy to monitor would be relative newcomer (only 1yr of HS football), TE Kahale Warring Hou: 6'5" 252lbs, 4.67 40, 36.5" vertical *his limited tape does show some extreme upside. *As he did play in HS, I'd wager he has a better chance than another "newcomer" at TE we all got the hots for, Rico Gathers :wacko:

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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Just read my 2018 savior Chris Herndon probably gonna get suspended.  

 

If he gets suspended and has to miss pre-season and camp then I'm probably out on him this year.  

 

Guys that miss that time are always so far behind the curve playing catch up all season, especially when there is a complete overhaul with the coaching and offense, etc.

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19 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Just read my 2018 savior Chris Herndon probably gonna get suspended.  

 

If he gets suspended and has to miss pre-season and camp then I'm probably out on him this year.  

 

Guys that miss that time are always so far behind the curve playing catch up all season, especially when there is a complete overhaul with the coaching and offense, etc.

(insert jets TE) and savior should never be used together.   I was shocked to see him taken so early in best balls thus far 

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