oswald737

Fernando Tatis, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, valensi24 said:

Anyone concerned about how low his xWOBA currently is?

His expected batting average is currently .234
His expected slugging is .456

Also, his BABIP is an unsustainable .415

He just seems to be tip-toeing the edge with potential of being on the verge of falling off a cliff.

 

definitely going to see some negative regression. But you have to put in mind that his sprint speed is in the top 3~5% of the entire league.

 

+ He's maintaining a hard hit % of 42~45 throughout the entire season.

+ exit velocity is not crazy, but he knows how to produce line drives and will keep on growing

+ he hits fastballs extremely well. if you see the detailed analysis, he's extremely bad at hitting offspeed pitches, he definitely must get better on that.

 

I actually think his expected stats to get better as the season progresses while his actual stats come down a little to meet at the middle.

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His true talent is probably a .260 hitter at this point when you take into account the BABIP luck and subpar plate discipline. But a .260 hitter at SS with that blend of power/speed is still very valuable in redrafts ROS and obviously he's only 20 so the plate discipline should improve going forward.

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Phenom. He’s one of the 5 most exciting players in the game already. Watch a game he’s pretty much guaranteed to post a highlight 

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15 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

Phenom. He’s one of the 5 most exciting players in the game already. Watch a game he’s pretty much guaranteed to post a highlight 

Couldn't agree more! Sad I have no shares, but watching the interview the other day before the game, just WOW. Kid TOTALY gets "it"!!! Humble, hungry, well spoken, super appreciative of the priceless time growing up on the field w/ his dad, his daily talks w/ his dad... I'm twice as excited now to see he won't go the route of another guy right next to him who has similar talent, but apparently more love for himself and bank account than baseball's legacy. He and Acuna are just 🔥!!! Must see TV on every AB. Baseball and it's recent wave of premium young talent is getting exciting again. Crazy juiced balls don't hurt either I guess... :rolleyes:

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I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post a 30/30/30/20 line. Hr/sb/2b/3b. I think he’s probably one the fastest guys I’ve seen going 3 bases reminds of a young Eric Davis in that he just glides and doesn’t look faster than those little speedsters and his numbers are off the charts

today he also has a play on mlb where he rifled a 93.7 mph fastball to 1b which was the hardest thrown ball this year. The avg fastball in mlb is 93

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

Phenom. He’s one of the 5 most exciting players in the game already. Watch a game he’s pretty much guaranteed to post a highlight 

I don't know about that. Trout, Yelich, Lindor, Bellinger, Baez, Acuna, Story all more exciting just off the top of my head - not to mention flat out better. And that doesn't take into account any pitching.

Tatis is no doubt an exciting player to watch, but your Padre homerism is super obvious

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2 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I don't know about that. Trout, Yelich, Lindor, Bellinger, Baez, Acuna, Story all more exciting just off the top of my head - not to mention flat out better. And that doesn't take into account any pitching.

Tatis is no doubt an exciting player to watch, but your Padre homerism is super obvious

 

Seems like this is a personal taste thing. Kind of hard for someone to be wrong about who they find the most exciting player to watch. Some people prefer watching young prospects, another could love power hitter, while the next guy could love pitching etc.

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34 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I don't know about that. Trout, Yelich, Lindor, Bellinger, Baez, Acuna, Story all more exciting just off the top of my head - not to mention flat out better. And that doesn't take into account any pitching.

Tatis is no doubt an exciting player to watch, but your Padre homerism is super obvious

I get your point, but to not be overly semantical, the “excitement” is a lil more for Tattis Jr., given he should very well be in AAA still. His surprise promotion (probably bad for SD, but refreshing to see from a fantasy owner and fans prospective) was a (wtf) moment, and he’s done literally everything he could to more than justify it! 

 

That said, there are probably 30 guys in the running for “most exciting”, and that in and of itself is great for the game we all love! Baseball’s willingness to get it’s future studs up quickly has piqued interest when it needed it most. The #’s vs. Football and Basketball have been kinda sad, glad to see the rebound. 

Apparently, they took “Chick’s dig the long ball” very seriously.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cs3 said:

I don't know about that. Trout, Yelich, Lindor, Bellinger, Baez, Acuna, Story all more exciting just off the top of my head - not to mention flat out better. And that doesn't take into account any pitching.

Tatis is no doubt an exciting player to watch, but your Padre homerism is super obvious

Story?  I could see the rest. Tatis is the most amazing dude to watch run the bases and his def at SS is highlight reel everyday. 

Tatis scores from 2nd on a ground out to the pitcher the other day. That’s the kind of thing I’m talking about. Out of the box he’s always thinking 3b

also don’t know how you can say flat out better. Tatis is pacing and 8 war season as a 20 yr old

Edited by Golden Spikes

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Future MVP.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, B&F said:

Future MVP.

 

 

Rookie of the Year first.

Edited by The_Real_Deal
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"According to Statcast, no player with at least 100 plate appearances this season has been more fortunate than Tatis. The rookie is producing plenty of hard contact (38.5 percent), but he is striking out often (28.6 percent) and isn’t hitting many line drives (15.9 percent). His .416 BABIP and 22.2 HR/FB rate is an unsustainable mark, meaning that gamers shouldn’t get too comfortable with Tatis as a five-category stud."

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/fantasy-baseball-batting-averages-separating-the-lucky-from-the-unlucky-174249060.html

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4 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

"According to Statcast, no player with at least 100 plate appearances this season has been more fortunate than Tatis. The rookie is producing plenty of hard contact (38.5 percent), but he is striking out often (28.6 percent) and isn’t hitting many line drives (15.9 percent). His .416 BABIP and 22.2 HR/FB rate is an unsustainable mark, meaning that gamers shouldn’t get too comfortable with Tatis as a five-category stud."

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/fantasy-baseball-batting-averages-separating-the-lucky-from-the-unlucky-174249060.html

WHat?! The 20 year old rookie wont hit .330?!

Theres so many of these columns out there for all sorts of players but any Tatis owner who thinks hes going to hit .330 is probably delusional anyway. I drafted him in a Keeper league for speed and some pop and hopefully many years of it.

 

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Posted (edited)

 Like I said 3 weeks ago this guy is going to be a 2nd round pick next season. Another killer week this week hes the 4th overall player over the past 7. 14th overall ranked player over the last 30 days. On the season in 5x5 on average hes the 11th overall player. This is a rookie hes going to be better next season.

All the "experts" in articles and on podcast were telling me to sell him a month ago because hes been getting lucky and will regress. I'll take the lucky +300 avg and 30 and 30 big ones on my team every season thank you. 

Edited by buzzkilloton
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He is fun to watch. Can't wait to see what he does in that dreaded sophomore slump season.

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6 minutes ago, kwelch said:

He is fun to watch. Can't wait to see what he does in that dreaded sophomore slump season.

Tatis is a slumpbuster!

Keeper league delicatessen!

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1 hour ago, dfstout said:

Tatis is a slumpbuster!

Keeper league delicatessen!

How is this confusing....Tatis is awesome and doesnt slump and a stud especially in keeper leagues...

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I hope he can stay at SS.  Would be a sight to see.

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7 minutes ago, B&F said:

I hope he can stay at SS.  Would be a sight to see.

Machado is at 3rd. He's going nowhere

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3 hit game with 11th home run

He will be a 1st rounder next year like Acuna

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I don’t think in real baseball there are 5 guys I’d take ahead of him if starting a franchise. I’m starting to think there might not be 5 fantasy guys I’d take ahead of him by the end of the year

another thing is dude gets at least 2 infield hits a week. I know straight speed he’s probably not the fastest but I’ve never seen a guy move like him on the bases since a young Eric Davis 

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He and Machado are perfect for each other.  Obviously Machado is a HOFer in his own right, but I think AJ Preller hit a grand slam bringing him in considering how he’a meshing with Tatis.  They make each other better.  

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19 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

I don’t think in real baseball there are 5 guys I’d take ahead of him if starting a franchise. I’m starting to think there might not be 5 fantasy guys I’d take ahead of him by the end of the year

another thing is dude gets at least 2 infield hits a week. I know straight speed he’s probably not the fastest but I’ve never seen a guy move like him on the bases since a young Eric Davis 

He’s must see tv right now.  Just an elite all around player.  Scouts whiffed on not having him number one overall prospect in game.  It’s not even close.  Can’t believe he was dealt for James Shields.....unreal.  Fun time to be a Pad fan.  Enjoy the rise up!

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