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Avisail Garcia 2019 Outlook

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This guy is very much like Corey Dickerson going into this season, except their last 2 seasons are the inverse of one another. Garcia had that batting title season in 2017 where he hit .330 in 136 games, mostly fueled by BABIP, but also by pure hitting ability. In 2018, both his BA and BABIP cratered, but he traded it for real power - he raised his launch angle by 2 degrees and his Barrel % went up to 11.6%, which puts him comfortably next to Franmil Reyes, Harper, Hoskins and Aguilar.

Conversly, Dickerson was a guy who sold out for power in 2017 and then changed his approach to hit .300 in '18. I feel like both of them are now on the verge of finding a happy medium, and fantasy owners are going to be rewarded.

Though everyone says spring stats are meaningless, I like to see if they confirm my little narratives. And they seem to:

16 games against decent Opponent Quality (8.4) = .302/.354/.558 with 3 HR and 15 RBI (usually hitting somewhere in the middle of the order).

And just to throw some love to Dickerson, 13 games against an 8.1 OppQual = .357/.386/.714 with 3 HR 8 RBI (w/ 4 2B & 1 3B).

If there's one team that knows how to get the best out of their players, it's gotta be Tampa. The concern will be playing time, as he should probably be stuck at DH because he's always been a terrible fielder. But the bat may beat out any challengers.

 

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Dude has been heating up batting .349, could he have a nice bounce back year?

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2/4 1 HR 3 RBI 1 SB tonight.

Keep an eye out for where Tampa bats him over the next few days. 

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hes heating up again fellas.  This guy goes on epic long hot streaks.  Batting in the middle of that lineup, he should be able to produce good stats.

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Is he going to continue playing every day? His PT earlier in the year was hit or miss, would sit against RHP a lot 

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2 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Is he going to continue playing every day? His PT earlier in the year was hit or miss, would sit against RHP a lot 

Unsure - also Wendle returning will cloud thinks since he is a super utility man.  There might be some strong platooning in this lineup.

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For now, I don't see how playing time would be an issue for Garcia. You don't sit a player hitting like he is right now.  If anybody will end up losing time, it would be Yandy Diaz if he doesn't start rolling again.

I own both, so obviously I'd love it if both players kept playing everyday, but Garcia has been outhitting Diaz by a large margin over the past week. 

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14 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

For now, I don't see how playing time would be an issue for Garcia. You don't sit a player hitting like he is right now.  If anybody will end up losing time, it would be Yandy Diaz if he doesn't start rolling again.

I own both, so obviously I'd love it if both players kept playing everyday, but Garcia has been outhitting Diaz by a large margin over the past week. 

 

Garcia doesnt play the infield, yandy isnt the issue for Garcia's playing time except for those Dh occasions and i dont see yandy coming out of the lineup with his OBP and ability to play diff infield positions (3B as that is completely his to lose as i think duffy is a bench guy over a starting caliber player if he can ever stay healthy) where Garcia is battling a STACKED OF rotation for playing time and DH

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Posted (edited)

Another homer from Avisail. A lot has been made about the Rays' acquisition of Yandy Diaz from the Indians, but perhaps the White Sox were overlooking Garcia as well. Last year, from June 26th to July 7th (12 games), I remember he had eight home runs but an injury took him out for a couple of weeks and he wasn't the same the rest of the season. Hopefully he can continue having regular playing time. For what it's worth, Garcia is second to Meadows (.347)  in average (.318 on the year).

Edited by PhilaFanBoy
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Over the last 30 days, hitting .319-15-5-13-1 in 91 ab. 

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I was using him but he's oddly been sitting a good amount of the time.  He'll only sit more once Meadows returns next week.  Also, he's in a mini hot streak in May which have inflated those last 30 day numbers.

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I keep going back to this well when i need a 5th OF for a week. Just seems like a solid, pro hitter who may be finding a good balance between contact and power like I mentioned in the opening post.

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Surprised this dude isn’t getting talked about more. He is currently only 10% owned in ESPN leagues and over the last 15 days he has 4 homers and 3 steals, making him in the number #14 scorer in my points league among hitters during that time. 

Batting in a weirdly exciting Rays lineup, I think this dude is pretty intriguing. Especially when mixing in the steals. Has ran on consecutive days now. 

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4 hours ago, LarryDavid said:

Surprised this dude isn’t getting talked about more. He is currently only 10% owned in ESPN leagues and over the last 15 days he has 4 homers and 3 steals, making him in the number #14 scorer in my points league among hitters during that time. 

Batting in a weirdly exciting Rays lineup, I think this dude is pretty intriguing. Especially when mixing in the steals. Has ran on consecutive days now. 

 

Yeah, Avisail is an interesting guy. He's hitting .280, which I think might be sustainable. His BABIP coming into today was .333, which is in line with his career .330 BABIP. So it's not like he's lucking into that BA, though I do expect it to ultimately fall into the .265-.270 range because I'm a fairly conservative projector, lol. 

I'd like to see more run production because he's not even on pace for 150 R/RBI. Considering he bats in the middle of their lineup and has 9 HR in 44 games, I find that a little surprising. What is more surprising is that he stole his 6th base today. He's one short of his career high, and it's May 26. I don't see him keeping this up all season, but it's looking like double-digit steals is likely. 

So if you get a .270 hitter with 25-30 HR, 10-12 SB, and 150+ R/RBI...that's pretty solid for someone most of us either got late in drafts or off the wire as a 5th OF. 

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14 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

Another solid game today. Is this sustainable?

Yes. His StatCast date indicates that he's actually been a little unlucky - StatCast says he's been the 26th best hitter this year (based on underlying metrics), but he has only the 66th best results. If he keeps hitting like he has been, he is due for some positive regression. His nearest StatCast friends are Derek Dietrich and Carlos Correa, and those guys are both having pretty solid seasons (just perhaps not solid massages).

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I don't see him as a star, but given how many injuries there are going around, you could do a lot worse for an injury replacement or third OF than Avisail for now. And since you probably got him off the wire, the cost is minimal. 

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Add Avisail to the list of waiver wire guys having insane starts. What a strange year. 

And moving foward, I could definitely see him sustaining. He's only 2 years removed from a .330/.380/.506 year. 

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as of now you could win leagues by all waiver wire and free agents.

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Third straight day out of the lineup with no explanation as to the severity of the injury, or the recovery prognosis. Anyone got any idea what's going on?

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Was this guy ever an exciting prospect with any sort of pedigree?  I don’t remember him ever being anywhere on my radar.

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