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fletch44

Lucas Giolito 2019 Outlook

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Man I was really considering benching him today. The Twins have been ripping the ball. I'm going to start benching my SP2-3s when they play these tough lineups like the Sox/Twins now that its hot. Not worth the risk. 

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5 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Nervous. But at the same time even with recent mediocrity, he's earned must (non-Coors) start status at this point. Worst case I still think he's got a solid QS in him. If a line of 6IP, 3R, 6H, 3BB, 6K works for ya, start him. That's kind of borderline depending on whether a QS and Ks mean more for you at this point than the periphs. That said, since April 12, he's given up more than 3 runs only twice, against the Cubs. He has one start against the twins in there where he gave up only one hit. He's a low volatility option, so even if he isn't great you're not getting your week destroyed. Minny has been scoring in bunches again, but they're traveling to Chicago after a pretty exhausting series against the Yanks. So maybe that'll increase the chance of hm hitting 20+ whiffs tonight. Interesting to note that Gio has been very good thus far at suppressing the HR ball at the bandbox he calls home.

In retrospect, I, um,  should not have said these things. 

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The 2019 Twins offense is devastating for reasons that I can’t understand.  The once upon a time mega prospects like Sano and Buxton are gimps.  You see them on your waiver wire.  You got grandpa Cruz hitting three homers.  What a load of crap.  Plus a whole lot of other stuff that’s not worth getting into.  The White Sox are gonna smash these bums come 2020.  Lukasz will be just fine.  Don’t worry about it.

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13 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

The 2019 Twins offense is devastating for reasons that I can’t understand.  The once upon a time mega prospects like Sano and Buxton are gimps.  You see them on your waiver wire.  You got grandpa Cruz hitting three homers.  What a load of crap.  Plus a whole lot of other stuff that’s not worth getting into.  The White Sox are gonna smash these bums come 2020.  Lukasz will be just fine.  Don’t worry about it.

Max Kepler.

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14 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

The 2019 Twins offense is devastating for reasons that I can’t understand.  The once upon a time mega prospects like Sano and Buxton are gimps.  You see them on your waiver wire.  You got grandpa Cruz hitting three homers.  What a load of crap.  Plus a whole lot of other stuff that’s not worth getting into.  The White Sox are gonna smash these bums come 2020.  Lukasz will be just fine.  Don’t worry about it.

Grandpa Cruz has been one of the best home run hitters in the league for the past 7 years. Not really a load of crap when he does stuff.

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3 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Grandpa Cruz has been one of the best home run hitters in the league for the past 7 years. Not really a load of crap when he does stuff.

 

A guy hitting 200 homers between the ages of 34 and 38 (when he had a total of 157 prior to that) doesn’t quite pass the smell test.  99% of players find that their skills start to decline precipitously when they hit their mid-30s.  Cruz feels like a throwback to the 90s when guys that should have declined became even more prolific in the power department, and we all know why that was occurring.  If I sound old to some of the millennial posters here, it’s because I’m the same precise age as Nelson Cruz!

Cruz is a known shady figure that has been known to inject things into his buttocks.  This is verifiable via a google search, I am merely a messenger.

In any event, I was mostly just inebriated and ranting last night.  This dude singlehandedly made Giolito look like a bum.  No offense to Twins fans.  Kepler is a nice story.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

A guy hitting 200 homers between the ages of 34 and 38 (when he had a total of 157 prior to that) doesn’t quite pass the smell test.  99% of players find that their skills start to decline precipitously when they hit their mid-30s.  Cruz feels like a throwback to the 90s when guys that should have declined became even more prolific in the power department, and we all know why that was occurring.  If I sound old to some of the millennial posters here, it’s because I’m the same precise age as Nelson Cruz!

Cruz is a known shady figure that has been known to inject things into his buttocks.  This is verifiable via a google search, I am merely a messenger.

In any event, I was mostly just inebriated and ranting last night.  This dude singlehandedly made Giolito look like a bum.  No offense to Twins fans.  Kepler is a nice story.

Don't like roids for the game of baseball, but he could inject carrot juice in his butt for all I care. I would take him all day err day on my fantasy team. As long as he isn't getting suspended. 

Edited by hangin n wangin

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Honestly getting lit up by the Twins this year is like getting lit up in Coors. I never take it as reason to worry about a pitcher. Gio was coming off a really nice start. If he struggles next time out against the Mets, then I start to wonder if the league has adjusted to him to a point where he drops from a top 15-20 guys to top 50ish.

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“There’s an impulse, with pitchers in particular, to read a lot into a single start, a single bad month. Pitching is a fickle act, and pitchers change talent level all the time. One minute you’re Dodgers Rich Hill, the next you’re Atlantic League Rich Hill. In Giolito’s case, however, I think it’s a false alarm. Giolito is a new pitcher in 2019, something wholly unlike what he has been previously in his big league career, and a down month doesn’t change that.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lucas-giolitos-rough-july-was-just-a-blip/

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58 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

“There’s an impulse, with pitchers in particular, to read a lot into a single start, a single bad month. Pitching is a fickle act, and pitchers change talent level all the time. One minute you’re Dodgers Rich Hill, the next you’re Atlantic League Rich Hill. In Giolito’s case, however, I think it’s a false alarm. Giolito is a new pitcher in 2019, something wholly unlike what he has been previously in his big league career, and a down month doesn’t change that.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lucas-giolitos-rough-july-was-just-a-blip/

I think the question with Giolito is whether he's a top 10 arm or a top 25 arm. He's clearly a step up from 2018, since he's not getting blown up literally every time out. But can he consistently string together ace-like starts like he did in May? The past month or so shows us that he still has work to do, but in terms of potential there aren't many arms I'd rather have. The guy is just 25 years old and has already shown flashes of top 5 stuff.

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On 7/29/2019 at 2:55 PM, Jyeatbvg said:

I think the question with Giolito is whether he's a top 10 arm or a top 25 arm. He's clearly a step up from 2018, since he's not getting blown up literally every time out. But can he consistently string together ace-like starts like he did in May? The past month or so shows us that he still has work to do, but in terms of potential there aren't many arms I'd rather have. The guy is just 25 years old and has already shown flashes of top 5 stuff.

 

I agree with most of this but he’s still been dealing with a difficult schedule as well as the death of a really good friend. Many good pitchers would get lit up if they had to deal with the type of schedule he has had. 

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CG SO against the juggernaut Twins, three straight starts of 10+ Ks, dude's been on a roll lately plain & simple. Just in time for fantasy playoffs baby!! 🥳

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36 Ks vs 14 H and 4 BB last 3 starts. Whiffs in those three starts are all in his career top 6. Dude is peaking at the perfect time. I don't have numbers in front of me, but his changeup has to be a top 5 wipeout pitch. No one can really touch it at this point.

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Posted (edited)

Nicknames for this stud would be so much easier if he had a K in his name

 

EDIT: after watching the highlights I realized he's basically what Salazar would look like if Danny had command of his fastball. Compact delivery that probably adds some deception/surprise, fastball/changeup combo. 

 

 

Edited by UberRebel

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Just now, Del Rio said:

Officially shut down. Sucks, but he balled out for me this year. Thanks Gio

Yeah that blows, especially coming out of nowhere at playoff time. Hope he builds on his success for next year.

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Final Line in 2019-

Counting Stats: 

29 starts, 176 2/3 IP 14-9, 17 QS, 228 K, 57 BB, 131 hits, 24 HR

Rate Stats and Sabermagic:

3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 32.3% K, 8.3% BB, 3.44/3.67/3.57 (FIP/xFIP/SIERA)

 

Conclusion: 

From penny stock to Pimp Man

Thanks Luc, here's to many more!!

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