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fletch44

Lucas Giolito 2019 Outlook

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Aces have crappy games all the time. Look up any game log, you'll see 2-3 for anyone this season. 

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People show up in bunches to drill him when he’s not pitching great and it’s absolute crickets when he keeps one of the statistically best offenses ever to a single hit through a rain shortened 5.

 

i said before this stretch of Yankees, cubs, Red Sox, and twins that if his ERA is still under 3 at the end of it then everyone should be ecstatic and he truly should be in ace conversation. I still stand by that. Remember the season is long and you shouldn’t get caught up in a single stat line.

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What's funny is that in yahoo leagues this guy is only 87% owned... lol which means roughly 13% of yahoo ffb are dead.

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Posted (edited)

He's only at 93% on Fantrax… it's one of the silliest things someone can take into account, player ownership.

 

Yesterday's outing did a lot of good for my psyche going forward... I truly believe in the breakout 100% at this point. I nearly benched him, too, but your aces are meant to be started. Giolito's transformation into an ace has been one of the best things in baseball to follow this year.

Edited by nlm
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He did great against Houston, NYY, and now the best O in baseball had no chance against him. One run in 20 IP against those three teams, so you can't say he's just stacking up stats against the weak sisters of the AL Central. This isn't peak Pedro or Kershaw -- he'll have some bumps in the road -- but even in those starts his whiff rate and velo was very good. Nothing to worry about then, nothing to worry about now. Other than the top 2-3 pitchers in baseball, no one is consistent. No reason not to think of him as top 10-20 at this point. 

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I know the Cubs can hit but I thought he was better than this.

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On 7/1/2019 at 9:06 PM, sleepysock said:

He did great against Houston, NYY, and now the best O in baseball had no chance against him. One run in 20 IP against those three teams, so you can't say he's just stacking up stats against the weak sisters of the AL Central. This isn't peak Pedro or Kershaw -- he'll have some bumps in the road -- but even in those starts his whiff rate and velo was very good. Nothing to worry about then, nothing to worry about now. Other than the top 2-3 pitchers in baseball, no one is consistent. No reason not to think of him as top 10-20 at this point. 

 

I’m not trying to kill the man, but the jury is definitely still out. He is definitely feasting on his division. He wasn’t great against Boston either of the two games. He was great against the Yankees the second time, but bad against them the first time. Hopefully, the All Star break resets him. I wish Montas wouldn’t have been suspended. It would’ve been interesting to see how those two would have compared.

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3 minutes ago, DaGreatest said:

 

I’m not trying to kill the man, but the jury is definitely still out. He is definitely feasting on his division. He wasn’t great against Boston either of the two games. He was great against the Yankees the second time, but bad against them the first time. Hopefully, the All Star break resets him. I wish Montas wouldn’t have been suspended. It would’ve been interesting to see how those two would have compared.

 

 

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It is indeed true that he has been awful against the Cubs, but it is at least a little concerning that he's walked 16 in 4 out of his last 5 starts.  It would be a bit different if he was just getting knocked around, but most of his issues of late have been his own doing.  Seemed like he had put the control issues behind him with his brilliant start against the Twins, but then it came back even worse last night.

Not saying I think he's done or anything of the sort.  Just a disappointing stretch for the most part, but he still is going to have to get his command back for the second half.

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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

It is indeed true that he has been awful against the Cubs, but it is at least a little concerning that he's walked 16 in 4 out of his last 5 starts.  It would be a bit different if he was just getting knocked around, but most of his issues of late have been his own doing.  Seemed like he had put the control issues behind him with his brilliant start against the Twins, but then it came back even worse last night.

Not saying I think he's done or anything of the sort.  Just a disappointing stretch for the most part, but he still is going to have to get his command back for the second half.

Agreed, but I'm not too worried. He was going to have a come back down to Earth stretch at some point. I think we all knew he wasn't a 7-8 WAR pitcher.

I've seen people say that he's reverting back to 2018 form, but let's not forget that he couldn't throw anything offspeed for a strike last year and his velo was a few ticks lower. 1 out of every 4 pitches he threw last night got a whiff. For a bad start, I'll take that. A few BS base hits also made things looks worse than they were. With his stuff, He should be a sub-4 ERA pitcher with a lot of Ks even is his command falters. This is not a season where those sorts of pitchers are growing on trees, so I won't complain even if the ceiling he showed us for a few months is quite a bit higher. I also look at his September schedule and think, "holy s---, no one has an easier path the last month of the year. Depending on how things shake out, he may have 5-6 starts against the Royals, Tigers, Indians, and Mariners to finish the season. Sign me up.

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2 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Agreed, but I'm not too worried. He was going to have a come back down to Earth stretch at some point. I think we all knew he wasn't a 7-8 WAR pitcher.

I've seen people say that he's reverting back to 2018 form, but let's not forget that he couldn't throw anything offspeed for a strike last year and his velo was a few ticks lower. 1 out of every 4 pitches he threw last night got a whiff. For a bad start, I'll take that. A few BS base hits also made things looks worse than they were. With his stuff, He should be a sub-4 ERA pitcher with a lot of Ks even is his command falters. This is not a season where those sorts of pitchers are growing on trees, so I won't complain even if the ceiling he showed us for a few months is quite a bit higher. I also look at his September schedule and think, "holy s---, no one has an easier path the last month of the year. Depending on how things shake out, he may have 5-6 starts against the Royals, Tigers, Indians, and Mariners to finish the season. Sign me up.

The problem, and it's probably our own fault in a way, is that he lead some to believe that he was becoming an ace.  With his status as a prospect and the run he was on, it very well looked like he was finally fulfilling his massive potential.  Obviously that run wasn't going to last.  Not even the best aces do that literally every single game, but I know I thought he was finally on his way to being that great pitcher people that he was going to be originally.

I'm not saying rush out and sell him before it's too late.  Just more or less saying why some people might be disappointed and/or even mildly concerned right now, myself included.

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6BB/9IP over his last 5 starts, but the uptick in velocity this year can not be understated.  Just a bit of a rough patch is all.  And whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.  Both starts vs the Cubs were comparable to a playoff games.  That might sound goofy, but it was intense as hell.  It’s better that he gets used to that type of thing in-season before the White Sox are ready to compete for a playoff spot in 2020.

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44 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

6BB/9IP over his last 5 starts, but the uptick in velocity this year can not be understated.  Just a bit of a rough patch is all.  And whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.  Both starts vs the Cubs were comparable to a playoff games.  That might sound goofy, but it was intense as hell.  It’s better that he gets used to that type of thing in-season before the White Sox are ready to compete for a playoff spot in 2020.

And unless one believes that walk rate or something close to it will persist, no reason to believe he won't settle in and have a very good second half. Even at 4BB/9 he'll be fine with 3 plus pitches and an elite whiff and K rate.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

And unless one believes that walk rate or something close to it will persist, no reason to believe he won't settle in and have a very good second half. Even at 4BB/9 he'll be fine with 3 plus pitches and an elite whiff and K rate.

So you’re buying on Giolito and selling on Tatis Jr?  Hows someone not to say you’re a monster homer?  

Edited by Cmilne23

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1 minute ago, Cmilne23 said:

So you’re buying on Giolito and selling on Tatis Jr?  Hows someone not to say you’re a monster homer?  

 

Because my decisions are common sense- and evidence-based? Gio's stock has fallen and some owners seem to be panicking. The underlying data suggests he's not, in fact, falling apart and turning into a pumpkin. So a chance has presented itself to acquire a very good pitcher for less than he's worth.

Tatis on the other hand is performing at a level that is beyond unsustainable. He's also covered in that rookie/top prospect sheen that inflates his value further.

Buy low, sell high. It's a new strategy of mine. Not sure if it'll ever catch on, but it works for me 🤷‍♂️

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Just now, sleepysock said:

 

Because my decisions are common sense- and evidence-based? Gio's stock has fallen and some owners seem to be panicking. The underlying data suggests he's not, in fact, falling apart and turning into a pumpkin. So a chance has presented itself to acquire a very good pitcher for less than he's worth.

Tatis on the other hand is performing at a level that is beyond unsustainable. He's also covered in that rookie/top prospect sheen that inflates his value further.

Buy low, sell high. It's a new strategy of mine. Not sure if it'll ever catch on, but it works for me 🤷‍♂️

I wouldn’t say Giolito is a buy low though on one start.  Good pitching division but there’s not enough good data to buy IMO.  Hes a hold for me.  Not buying, not selling (unless return is crazy), just wait and see what develops in second half.

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Is anyone concerned about what I perceived as a drop in velocity last night?  Seemed to be around 93-94 and not going above that even in high pressure situations.  In the past during his hot streak I've seen him get as high as 97-98, even staying around there most of the game.

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3 minutes ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Is anyone concerned about what I perceived as a drop in velocity last night?  Seemed to be around 93-94 and not going above that even in high pressure situations.  In the past during his hot streak I've seen him get as high as 97-98, even staying around there most of the game.

 

Yes.  

 

Velocity gains rarely stick.

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4 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Is anyone concerned about what I perceived as a drop in velocity last night?  Seemed to be around 93-94 and not going above that even in high pressure situations.  In the past during his hot streak I've seen him get as high as 97-98, even staying around there most of the game.

 

I remember watching him with the high heat 95+ and then the high change. It was killer. 

 

Not seeing the same control or velocity.

 

He looks ok, but maybe those Cubs games got in his head.

 

He had an easy comebacker last night that he fielded and had all day to make the throw to first (WITH A MAN on 3rd!) and he almost threw the ball away.

 

Or maybe he's got a small case of the yips. lol

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Statcast still loves him.  

With his new motion he might be able to maintain the velocity.  Yesterday may have been a blip on the radar and he could regain the velocity.

He still should be a very good pitcher the rest of the season.

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53 minutes ago, B&F said:

Statcast still loves him.  

With his new motion he might be able to maintain the velocity.  Yesterday may have been a blip on the radar and he could regain the velocity.

He still should be a very good pitcher the rest of the season.

 

He didn't look bad yesterday and the Royals put the ball in play with some timely singles with men in scoring position. 

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7 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Is anyone concerned about what I perceived as a drop in velocity last night?  Seemed to be around 93-94 and not going above that even in high pressure situations.  In the past during his hot streak I've seen him get as high as 97-98, even staying around there most of the game.

Averaged 94 and topped out at 96. Pretty much in line with where he’s been at all year. Occasionally he flirts with 97+, but that really only occurs once or twice a game. If there is any concern over his start, it’s the lack of swinging strikes. Hopefully that’s just a byproduct of him working more aggressively in the zone after a stretch where he was rocking a pretty high walk rate. 

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Posted (edited)

How you guys feeling about tonights start vs MIN ?

 

 

Edited by tonywow

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tonywow said:

How you guys feeling about tonights start vs MIN ?

 

 

Nervous. But at the same time even with recent mediocrity, he's earned must (non-Coors) start status at this point. Worst case I still think he's got a solid QS in him. If a line of 6IP, 3R, 6H, 3BB, 6K works for ya, start him. That's kind of borderline depending on whether a QS and Ks mean more for you at this point than the periphs. That said, since April 12, he's given up more than 3 runs only twice, against the Cubs. He has one start against the twins in there where he gave up only one hit. He's a low volatility option, so even if he isn't great you're not getting your week destroyed. Minny has been scoring in bunches again, but they're traveling to Chicago after a pretty exhausting series against the Yanks. So maybe that'll increase the chance of hm hitting 20+ whiffs tonight. Interesting to note that Gio has been very good thus far at suppressing the HR ball at the bandbox he calls home.

Edited by sleepysock
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