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Tim Beckham 2019 Outlook

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He is white hot right now. Obviously this isn’t sustainable but could he FINALLY be a useful fantasy asset?

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Threw in a waiver bid... Who knows but better to own and ask questions later. Former number 1 pick, labelled a bust, maybe turns it around on his new team?? He did just Homer twice off Chris sale... 

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Man that swing looks so easy last night, knocking those bombs off Sale.

Not seen much of him but hard to believe he was WW fodder everywhere, at worst he's a hot schmotato I've grabbed where I can.

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7 hours ago, doctorm said:

Threw in a waiver bid... Who knows but better to own and ask questions later. Former number 1 pick, labelled a bust, maybe turns it around on his new team?? He did just Homer twice off Chris sale... 

 

There's always a few players like this every season, where they start hot and even though they can't sustain that level of production, the hot start is not a total mirage but rather foreshadowing of what will continue to be a surprising/breakout season. 

For me the key with Beckham is that the SS job is his and the Mariners have been elevating him in their lineup after each game this season. He started out hitting 8th in their opener in Japan (went 3-3 with a bomb), was moved to 7th for their next game (went 2-4 with a BB), and was moved up to 6th for the home opener vs. Chris Sale (who he took deep twice). 

And of course this is a former #1 overall pick who has shown flashes in the past. I fondly remember his scorching hot 50 game stretch for the Orioles in 2017 after he was acquired in a deadline deal:

50 games played, 216 AB - 36 runs, 10 HR, 26 RBI, .306/.348/.523

 

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2 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

There's always a few players like this every season, where they start hot and even though they can't sustain that level of production, the hot start is not a total mirage but rather foreshadowing of what will continue to be a surprising/breakout season. 

For me the key with Beckham is that the SS job is his and the Mariners have been elevating him in their lineup after each game this season. He started out hitting 8th in their opener in Japan (went 3-3 with a bomb), was moved to 7th for their next game (went 2-4 with a BB), and was moved up to 6th for the home opener vs. Chris Sale (who he took deep twice). 

And of course this is a former #1 overall pick who has shown flashes in the past. I fondly remember his scorching hot 50 game stretch for the Orioles in 2017 after he was acquired in a deadline deal:

50 games played, 216 AB - 36 runs, 10 HR, 26 RBI, .306/.348/.523

 

def agree with this assessment.

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39 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

875.gif

 

34 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Clearly Bonafacio ;)

 

1 minute ago, jb_power said:

Tuffy Rhodes

 

 

I get what you guys are trying to say here... there's a neverending list of players who had a hot week or two to start the season before fading back into anonymity. 

For a SS/MI option though, Beckham doesn't really have to be drastically better than he's been in the past to be serviceable in mixed leagues. He's got a career .179 ISO, with a .255/.307/.433 slash line. He has a 22 HR season (2017) under his belt already. Last year in 96 games he hit 12 homers. I see no roadblock to everyday playing time in Seattle, so is a 15+ HR season with something like a .260/.320/.450 line really out of the question? 

 

I could see him producing a very similar line to Jurickson Profar did last year:

82 runs, 20 HR, 77 RBI, .254/.335/.458 (146 games played, 594 PA)

Heck, that's basically identical to what Beckham put up in 2017 with the Rays/Orioles:

67 runs, 22 HR, 62 RBI, .278/.328/.454 (137 games played, 575 PA)

 

With 3B/SS eligibility, that sort of line will play nicely in deeper mixed leagues or AL Only.

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Yes, and even if the hot streak lasts for two weeks or so - he's providing more value than a guy like Nimmo in my UTIL spot. 

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2 minutes ago, remark900 said:

Dropped Dejong for Beckham and hoping to ride the hot streak for as long as Correa is out!

Think you meant to post this in the overreaction thread.

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5 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Think you meant to post this in the overreaction thread.

Negative Ghostrider

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Posted (edited)

He was decent in 2017. Then he did cut down his K%, but the Quality on contact just dropped a ton.

Since he came back from injury in late June last year.  323 PAs  .259 BA  14 HRs  6.5 BB   22.9 K  .189 ISO  .297 BABIP

That is pretty workable for 5X5 in a full season MI option. He was dealing with a groin issues early last year.

 

Watched a lot of his ABs last year. He bit on a lot of high cheese he couldn't handle. His success will depend on crushing FBs. Sliders will keep him from hitting for a high BA though.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Posted (edited)

I’m seeing a lot of talk about a best case scenario upside of a .260/.310 hitter with maybe 20-25 hrs and 0 steal upside?

 

He has terrible plate discipline on top of everything and while he’s 2bb/0k in his 3 games so far he has 0 bb to 12k in spring training.  Let’s stop looking at a SSS and move on.

Edited by BackyardBaseball
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18 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I’m seeing a lot of talk about a best case scenario upside of a .260/.310 hitter with maybe 20-25 hrs and 0 steal upside?

 

He has terrible plate discipline on top of everything and while he’s 2bb/0k in his 3 games so far he has 0 bb to 12k in spring training.  Let’s stop looking at a SSS and move on.

True...new team, new hitting though so you never know. Mariners are playing great ball right now with all the former prospects and castoffs

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I think it's fair to both be interested in this hot streak, while also recognizing that his plate discipline makes long term success unlikely.  3B is a wasteland, especially if like me you're waiting on Vlad. There aren't many available without warts. I don't see anything wrong with trying to ride the streak if you're desperate. Just don't be afraid to cut bait quickly once he starts to suck again.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/29/2019 at 9:46 AM, Baur10 said:

I think it's fair to both be interested in this hot streak, while also recognizing that his plate discipline makes long term success unlikely.  3B is a wasteland, especially if like me you're waiting on Vlad. There aren't many available without warts. I don't see anything wrong with trying to ride the streak if you're desperate. Just don't be afraid to cut bait quickly once he starts to suck again.

 

??? Third base is probably the deepest position out there right now. Unless you're just talking WW, but in that case any competitive league will be slim pickings at any position. Anyway I largely agree; I don't think Tim Beckham has magically figured things out. He's rosterable while on his hot streak, but this screams hot start from an otherwise mediocre player. 

Edited by phillyphan21
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Posted (edited)
On 3/29/2019 at 12:14 PM, BackyardBaseball said:

I’m seeing a lot of talk about a best case scenario upside of a .260/.310 hitter with maybe 20-25 hrs and 0 steal upside?

 

He has terrible plate discipline on top of everything and while he’s 2bb/0k in his 3 games so far he has 0 bb to 12k in spring training.  Let’s stop looking at a SSS and move on.

 

^So much this.

I’ve been following Beckham closely since day one. This is the guy that Friedman took instead of Buster Posey. While Friedman did have a lot of successes in Tampa, this Beckham pick was easily his biggest fail. It still gives me nightmares.

He’s now been playing professional baseball for 12 years. He’s never hit for average, he’s never hit for power, he’s never stolen bases (at anything other than a terrible rate when he was 20 years old) and he’s never really been dependable at driving in runs.

In 2,915 plate appearances in the minors, he slashed .266/.331/.379 with just 35 home runs. He’s now had 1,445 plate appearances in the majors and has slashed .255/.307/.433 with 51 home runs. While the power has increased, his on base prowess took a hit because of it. He’s still a low BB% and high K% guy with average power at best and abysmal base-running ability.

I am a notorious “hater” of his (as the kids would say) but I have very good reasons to be. This guy just simply isn’t a very good ballplayer and we have over a decade worth of track record to prove it. While I will concede that anything is possible, it is highly unlikely that he magically turns into anything than what he already is.

Edited by Dislimb

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42 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

??? Third base is probably the deepest position out there right now. Unless you're just talking WW, but in that case any competitive league will be slim pickings at any position. Anyway I largely agree; I don't think Tim Beckham has magically figured things out. He's rosterable while on his hot streak, but this screams hot start from an otherwise mediocre player. 

 

There are degrees.  I tend to participate in pretty average size 12-14 person leagues and looking at the WW I like the options at SS, OF, and even 1B available in all of em more than the 3B.  Hell even 2B is close.  Maybe that's different for different leagues but that's just my limited observation. That's why I'm willing to take a shot on a hot streak from a player I objectively have little faith in.

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