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taobball

Aaron Sanchez 2019 Outlook

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What's the opposite of a Red Flag? Like a positive version. Something you watch for that keys in to the potential FOR future value. 

 

Aaron Sanchez's Curveball is something I watch entirely independently. Because he stopped using it for a while, and to me it was maybe the best offering he had. He threw the Curve 17 times in his first start via Brooksbaseball (17/92 for 18.47%), which would be the highest Curve Usage % of his career, coming off last year when it was the lowest of his career.

 

The Curve was largely ineffective on paper (11 Balls on 17 Pitches) but did manage 2 Whiffs on 5 Swings. I haven't managed to catch the start myself, but the point of my "Red Flag" comment is that in this case, I don't really have to. What I want to look for with Sanchez in me believing he can be all that he can be is his willingness to use the Curve. We saw that Willingness today, and if he can get the feel for the pitch again, look out. 

 

Until he gets hurt. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

What's the opposite of a Red Flag? Like a positive version. Something you watch for that keys in to the potential FOR future value. 

 

Aaron Sanchez's Curveball is something I watch entirely independently. Because he stopped using it for a while, and to me it was maybe the best offering he had. He threw the Curve 17 times in his first start via Brooksbaseball (17/92 for 18.47%), which would be the highest Curve Usage % of his career, coming off last year when it was the lowest of his career.

 

The Curve was largely ineffective on paper (11 Balls on 17 Pitches) but did manage 2 Whiffs on 5 Swings. I haven't managed to catch the start myself, but the point of my "Red Flag" comment is that in this case, I don't really have to. What I want to look for with Sanchez in me believing he can be all that he can be is his willingness to use the Curve. We saw that Willingness today, and if he can get the feel for the pitch again, look out. 

 

Until he gets hurt. 

 

Watched his entire start yesterday. His curve usage was nice to see, but it was also great to see his fastball around 94-95 all day and it looked like it had a lot of late life to it. 

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Posted (edited)

Yeah he stopped using it because he couldn't feel his fingers last year. It had nice shape yesterday and the speedball was really flashing +

AL East is always a gauntlet, but was very encouraged watch his toss yesterday.

Edited by ST. STEVEN
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Last year his fb velocity was down 1 mph from his previous levels. This spring and first outing it's back up to previous levels. This is imo another promising indicator of health. I'm all in but for the shallowest of leagues.

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He's had issues with blisters the last couple years, with adjusting to the new MLB balls.  But when h's healthy, he's a stud.  He was in the Cy Young conversation just a couple years ago.  

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This is why he’s ditched the curve in the past:

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I am reserving judgement on all Jays pitchers until they face a team better than the Toledo Mud Hens.

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Part of his problem is his control.  He walked 3 batters in 5 ip.  His BB/9 in his 8 minor league seasons was 5.0, as a pro it's 3.8 per 9.  I love the stuff but I worry about the lack of control when pitching on a bad team, in a tough division, with a homerun friendly home park. 

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1 hour ago, dicka24 said:

Part of his problem is his control.  He walked 3 batters in 5 ip.  His BB/9 in his 8 minor league seasons was 5.0, as a pro it's 3.8 per 9.  I love the stuff but I worry about the lack of control when pitching on a bad team, in a tough division, with a homerun friendly home park. 

Yeah but if it is any consolation, we all either drafted him late or picked him up for free. We just want him to be solid against the bad teams and hope he can have good games against the better teams. If he sucks, he is an easy drop. 

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I think as Blue Jay fans we have all seen the talent with this guy. His curveball is elite and his pitches have movement. What he lacks is the ability to stay healthy and part of that is attitude. He's got little heart. If you could take some of Stroman's energy, attitude and enthusiasm and channel it to Sanchez you'd have an all star. I own 1 share of him bought him for $8 in my auction league. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

I dunno, he was pretty pumped throughout his first game if you watched.

Most certainly was- Jack Morris was outwardly wondering if he was being too emotional even.

Edited by ST. STEVEN

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I think getting waylaid by something so stupid as blisters/cracked nails has got to be, ironically, really mentally challenging. As a pitcher you probably steel yourself for major injuries like torn UCLs, but not losing years to such frustrating, niggling stuff. I've really enjoyed the flashes he's shown and don't blame him a bit if he's feeling good about it. 

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Just now, UberRebel said:

What’s his upside? Top 20 SP?

 

I had him I think SP29 about two years ago. I don't have faith in the health yet, but the talent is there for a top 20 per start pitcher for sure. I mean I truly, truly fell in love with his Curve. Enough so that I felt he personally was spiting me by not using it. Love seeing near-20%, even in one start. That's what I wanted to see in 2017. 

 

 

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I haven’t had a chance to watch his game until just recently... and man does that curveball have some real bite to it. I mean his sinker is pretty nasty alone, but that’s a REAL big league breaking ball. 

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Occasionally the control isn't great, and this Jays team is pretty bad. But I'm a believer this season, and he could be a > 3.50/1.20 type of guy that will be a steady presence in your rotation.

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2 hours ago, Fantasyguy007 said:

No health issues so what is keeping this dude from getting more buzz? He looks fantastic!

 

Honestly I think it's the history of injuries and the relative anonymity of players not named Vlad Jr up in Toronto. He is decidedly post-hype at this point. 

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3 hours ago, Fantasyguy007 said:

No health issues so what is keeping this dude from getting more buzz? He looks fantastic!

 

 

I am buying everywhere! I fully expect him to be a $15 SP this year. His injury record is fluke stuff, he is 100% and baring nuttiness he will be money!

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Anyone watch his start tonight. While following on the mlb app, his velocity looked good, seemed be getting solid swinging strikes with both his curve and change, and seemed to throw the curve at will.  Final line didn’t look bad but he definitely ran is pitch count up quickly and walked too many batters. Is this a must add??

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Why was he taken out early today? Blister issues again??? I hope not. Maybe he had the case of the runs? 

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Just now, mrfrood said:

Why was he taken out early today? Blister issues again??? I hope not. Maybe he had the case of the runs? 

This guy is made of glass

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Broken Fingernail, see you next year

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