Stonej14

Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook

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21 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

He performed poorly from a real life stand point and yet he only scored 6 points less than the perfect player in Mahomes.  That’s almost the epitome of an elite fantasy player.  Nobody cares if his real life mechanics are questionable.   His elite rushing ability can offset an average throwing performance.  

 

People will care when luck stops falling his way. His rushing ability helps for sure. I never said he is a horrible fantasy QB. He's not elite though and for sure not top 5 in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, yanksman said:

Patrick Mahomes is in a class by himself. If that's the comparison youre gonna make to label an elite QB then I'll tell you that the list starts and ends with Mahomes.

 

I'll give you that one. You asked the question though. 

I simply think he has worse games on the horizon. But, he'll probably have some huge rushing performances and some big games also. I don't think Lamar is bad as a fantasy option. Again, just don't think he's even top 5. Top 10, a starter, sure that will inevitably burn you some weeks. It's coming. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong though!

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7 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

I'll give you that one. You asked the question though. 

I simply think he has worse games on the horizon. But, he'll probably have some huge rushing performances and some big games also. I don't think Lamar is bad as a fantasy option. Again, just don't think he's even top 5. Top 10, a starter, sure that will inevitably burn you some weeks. It's coming. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong though!

You should really stop drinking while you post.

Guy may not be "elite" in real life but he is for fantasy.  He will easily finish in the top 5 as long as he stays healthy.

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8 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

You should really stop drinking while you post.

Guy may not be "elite" in real life but he is for fantasy.  He will easily finish in the top 5 as long as he stays healthy.

 

I must be drinking because I think a guy who isn't an elite or even great quarterback in real life might falter enough through a whole season to see a huge dip in numbers and not be top 5 (which I consider elite, outside of Mahomes tier which someone else mentioned)? 

I never even said the guy was bad. Or would be bottom half QB. I said top 10 probably. I just think some of his weaknesses get exposed. He's still good and the Ravens will still win games this year. I just think 5 other people put up better numbers than him over the course of a whole season. You may not agree with me which is fine, but it's certainly not some far fetched foregone conclusion that he won't be top 5.

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22 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

You should really stop drinking while you post.

Guy may not be "elite" in real life but he is for fantasy.  He will easily finish in the top 5 as long as he stays healthy.

 

Agreed. 

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34 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

I'll give you that one. You asked the question though. 

I simply think he has worse games on the horizon. But, he'll probably have some huge rushing performances and some big games also. I don't think Lamar is bad as a fantasy option. Again, just don't think he's even top 5. Top 10, a starter, sure that will inevitably burn you some weeks. It's coming. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong though!

What question did I ask?

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36 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

People will care when luck stops falling his way. His rushing ability helps for sure. I never said he is a horrible fantasy QB. He's not elite though and for sure not top 5 in my opinion.

Well he's the #2 QB in my Yahoo league which has pretty standard scoring. Just 1.08 points behind Mahomes!

With a 15 point cushion over 5th place QB. So we'll see...

If "luck" is the best argument you have against him...well that's not really an argument.

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11 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

Well he's the #2 QB in my Yahoo league which has pretty standard scoring. Just 1.08 points behind Mahomes!

With a 15 point cushion over 5th place QB. So we'll see...

If "luck" is the best argument you have against him...well that's not really an argument.

 

He happened to win more coin tosses than not for most of his big plays. That should come back to the mean and some of those will be INTs. 

They stick with short/intermediate dumpoffs to TE/RB and don't go downfield often. When they do go downfield he's not putting the ball where it should be and to this point his WR have made up for it with some decent plays. That won't continue if he throws the ball the way he has been, and teams will start taking away the short stuff as the season goes on.

It's week 3. 15 points is not that much over a whole season. He's in the mix right now for sure.

That's my opinion. It is good rationale. The only thing anyone else has said is "he rushes and he has lots of points right now". No one is refuting anything I'm saying about his play and instead agreeing that he's not a great QB, but somehow that doesn't have any effect on the probability that he stays in the top 5 season long. And I've said he will probably make top 10. People are acting like I'm calling him a bum in fantasy. Just not true.

I don't own Lamar but I watched the whole game. I wonder how many here did instead of looking at the stat line. I'll see myself out of here now.

Edited by tschwicht

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22 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

He happened to win more coin tosses than not for most of his big plays. That should come back to the mean and some of those will be INTs. 

They stick with short/intermediate dumpoffs to TE/RB and don't go downfield often. When they do go downfield he's not putting the ball where it should be and to this point his WR have made up for it with some decent plays. That won't continue if he throws the ball the way he has been, and teams will start taking away the short stuff as the season goes on.

It's week 3. 15 points is not that much over a whole season. He's in the mix right now for sure.

That's my opinion. It is good rationale. The only thing anyone else has said is "he rushes and he has lots of points right now". No one is refuting anything I'm saying about his play and instead agreeing that he's not a great QB, but somehow that doesn't have any effect on the probability that he stays in the top 5 season long. And I've said he will probably make top 10. People are acting like I'm calling him a bum in fantasy. Just not true.

I don't own Lamar but I watched the whole game. I wonder how many here did instead of looking at the stat line. I'll see myself out of here now.

I watched the whole game. And he definitely got fortunate on 2 of those desperate throws that his receivers happened to come down with. 

However, does that describe his first 3 games as a whole? No. 

Kansas City is a tough defense. He was under pressure all game. And your theory that he will get worse or "come back to the mean" is no more valid than my theory that he will actually IMPROVE as the season progresses. 

This is after all only his 2nd NFL season. He has shown the ability to improve so far, why should I think that will stop?

He doesn't have to play mistake free football to be top 5. Because he's that explosive on the ground and a good to great passer when things are clicking. 

This was a terrible passing game for them all around. Look at Mark Andrews production. That won't continue.

I think that's one of the tougher defenses he will face and he put up 21 fantasy points (with 3 short range TD's going to Mark Ingram). He's one of the few QB's in the league that will have several 30+ point games and that's why I expect him to finish top 5.

The ability to put up RB1/RB2 like rushing numbers instantaneously makes him an elite fantasy QB. You might love Tom Brady's mistake free football and accurate passing, but he has to have an unbelievable game and throw for 5 touchdowns to keep up with Lamar because of the way rushing is rewarded in the fantasy point structure. 

Edited by mbell317

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not trying to get to league specific but im sure a lot of people play 6 pt pass td leagues/ bonus pts so where would we rank lamar in a 6 pt pass yardage bonus pt league? still #2 behind mahomes? I think he is clearly #2 in standard 1 qb 4pt pass td.

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On 9/23/2019 at 2:37 PM, tschwicht said:

 

He happened to win more coin tosses than not for most of his big plays. That should come back to the mean and some of those will be INTs. 

They stick with short/intermediate dumpoffs to TE/RB and don't go downfield often. When they do go downfield he's not putting the ball where it should be and to this point his WR have made up for it with some decent plays. That won't continue if he throws the ball the way he has been, and teams will start taking away the short stuff as the season goes on.

It's week 3. 15 points is not that much over a whole season. He's in the mix right now for sure.

That's my opinion. It is good rationale. The only thing anyone else has said is "he rushes and he has lots of points right now". No one is refuting anything I'm saying about his play and instead agreeing that he's not a great QB, but somehow that doesn't have any effect on the probability that he stays in the top 5 season long. And I've said he will probably make top 10. People are acting like I'm calling him a bum in fantasy. Just not true.

I don't own Lamar but I watched the whole game. I wonder how many here did instead of looking at the stat line. I'll see myself out of here now.

His first two games he got a lot of his points from deep throws, almost all of which were VERY on point. I'm pretty sure one of LJ's biggest strengths as a passer is his deep ball. Their whole offense is predicated on a strong running game and then the deep ball from LJ once the defense starts to creep up or is on its heels. One of the reasons they drafted Marquise Brown was due to his speed. He has the ability to take the top off the defense and take advantage of Jackson's arm strength and quality deep ball. 

 

For whatever reason LJ was off against KC. Not sure if it was the weather or KC's defense or him coming back down to earth a bit or just a bad day. Yes, he won't get to play the Dolphins every week. On the other hand he's only started like...10 regular season games? Keep in mind every game he starts is more experience under his belt and another chance for him to get more comfortable in this offense and I think those things are beneficial to a young QB. You could maybe argue his game against KC was his floor. He had an off day passing, most of the TDs went to his RBs, and he still put up decent points due to his running. If that's his floor, and we've seen his ceiling, I think he easily finishes within top 5 at his position. 

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No chance Lamar is a top 5 guy. He can’t play Miami and AZ again. He’s a great runner and below average passer. He’s going to get better passing no doubt but he will never be an elite QB. This guy will be fortunate to finish top 10. He made KC defense look like a top 5 unit with shutdown corners. Top 5 guys torch the Chiefs.

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17 minutes ago, Krambone said:

No chance Lamar is a top 5 guy. He can’t play Miami and AZ again. He’s a great runner and below average passer. He’s going to get better passing no doubt but he will never be an elite QB. This guy will be fortunate to finish top 10. He made KC defense look like a top 5 unit with shutdown corners. Top 5 guys torch the Chiefs.

I don't think so. Of course Lamar isn't an elite QB by any means, but he is in fact an elite fantasy QB. He still put up good stats against the Chiefs, it's not like he sh** bed. I would go as far and claim - if healthy - that Lamar is a top 5 lock. This offense is rolling and their schedule very nice as well.

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23 minutes ago, Krambone said:

No chance Lamar is a top 5 guy. He can’t play Miami and AZ again. He’s a great runner and below average passer. He’s going to get better passing no doubt but he will never be an elite QB. This guy will be fortunate to finish top 10. He made KC defense look like a top 5 unit with shutdown corners. Top 5 guys torch the Chiefs.

To counter your point, Mark Ingram had 2 touchdowns from the 1 yard and the 2 yard line, and he rushed for his 3td TD from inside the red zone as well. If Lamar throws for 1 TD pass out of those 3 opportunities then he finishes 6th for the week. IF he rushes for a TD out of those 3 opportunists then he finishes 4th for the week. He ultimately ended up finishing 10th on the week. You think Ingram is gonna have 3 TD’s a game? Even with the RB getting 3 TD’s he still finishes in the top 10. Stop fooling yourself kid 

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49 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

To counter your point, Mark Ingram had 2 touchdowns from the 1 yard and the 2 yard line, and he rushed for his 3td TD from inside the red zone as well. If Lamar throws for 1 TD pass out of those 3 opportunities then he finishes 6th for the week. IF he rushes for a TD out of those 3 opportunists then he finishes 4th for the week. He ultimately ended up finishing 10th on the week. You think Ingram is gonna have 3 TD’s a game? Even with the RB getting 3 TD’s he still finishes in the top 10. Stop fooling yourself kid 

 

He had a pretty sub par game...but still scored 21 points in my 4 pt per TD league. Believe that was a top 10 QB finish for the week.

If that's his "floor" game, I'll take that and know that ceiling games will come and win me games.

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5 hours ago, Krambone said:

No chance Lamar is a top 5 guy. He can’t play Miami and AZ again. He’s a great runner and below average passer. He’s going to get better passing no doubt but he will never be an elite QB

 

. This guy will be fortunate to finish top 10.

 

He made KC defense look like a top 5 unit with shutdown corners. Top 5 guys torch the Chiefs.

 

🤔

😂

🙄

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Q2. Who is your favorite sell-high candidate at this point in the season and what would you try to get in return?

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

“I admit I didn’t see him coming to the degree he has been bringing it, but you can do so much with his massively-high value right now. Trade him for a struggling Aaron Rodgers
, who is sure to bounce back, and package your WR2 with Jackson and upgrade him into a struggling, low-end WR1 (like a Michael Thomas or Davante Adams). Buying low and selling high is the key to building an unstoppable team stacked with a handful of big-name players.”
– Smitty (SleeperU)
 

Lamar Jackson may be crushing so far, but what did you expect versus the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chiefs through three weeks? Don’t hear me wrong; he is a reliable QB1 with plenty of upside, but at this point, 

 ⁉️you can move him for a WR3 like Mike Williams or an RB3 like David Montgomery, and I’d do either without hesitation.”⁉️
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

😂

🙄 🤣🙄

Edited by dashoe
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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Q2. Who is your favorite sell-high candidate at this point in the season and what would you try to get in return?

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

“I admit I didn’t see him coming to the degree he has been bringing it, but you can do so much with his massively-high value right now. Trade him for a struggling Aaron Rodgers
, who is sure to bounce back, and package your WR2 with Jackson and upgrade him into a struggling, low-end WR1 (like a Michael Thomas or Davante Adams). Buying low and selling high is the key to building an unstoppable team stacked with a handful of big-name players.”
– Smitty (SleeperU)
 

Lamar Jackson may be crushing so far, but what did you expect versus the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Chiefs through three weeks? Don’t hear me wrong; he is a reliable QB1 with plenty of upside, but at this point, 

 ⁉️you can move him for a WR3 like Mike Williams or an RB3 like David Montgomery, and I’d do either without hesitation.”⁉️
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

😂

🙄 🤣🙄


I wouldn’t move him for anyone mentioned above besides maybe DeVante Adams.  That’s crazy.  

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33 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Don’t hear me wrong; he is a reliable QB1 with plenty of upside, but...


Gotta love those mixed messages. "He's a reliable QB1 with plenty of upside, but if you can trade him for a struggling WR3 like Mike Williams I wouldn't hesitate". Yeah, great advice.

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I think I would be accused of collusion if I traded Lamar Jackson for Mike Williams

Edited by yanksman
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11 minutes ago, Dark One said:


Gotta love those mixed messages. "He's a reliable QB1 with plenty of upside, but if you can trade him for a struggling WR3 like Mike Williams I wouldn't hesitate". Yeah, great advice.

In this case, it only applies to Mahomes. He's a difference maker at the position. QB is, meh, unless you have some funky scoring model. There isn't a ton of separation in the field of fantasy QBs besides Mahomes. So yeah, packaging Lamar isn't a bad thing. Of course, through three games your Top 4 are Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, and Prescott. As the season progresses though I believe there will be separation.

Edited by FitzMagic

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Yeah I'm all for prioritizing RB's and WR's, but even I'm not trading Lamar for a WR3 or RB3.

I do however agree with the idea of packaging him to get the best player in the trade back, like a WR1 Michael Thomas or Davante Adams. 

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1 minute ago, FitzMagic said:

In this case, it only applies to Mahomes. He's a difference maker at the position. QB is, meh, unless you have some funky scoring model. There isn't a ton of separation in the field of fantasy QBs besides Mahomes. So yeah, packaging Lamar isn't a bad thing.

Yes it is.

Lamar gonna break all time rush yards.

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3 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

In this case, it only applies to Mahomes. He's a difference maker at the position. QB is, meh, unless you have some funky scoring model. There isn't a ton of separation in the field of fantasy QBs besides Mahomes. So yeah, packaging Lamar isn't a bad thing.

Lamar Jackson is 1.08 points behind Mahomes in Yahoo standard scoring. Dak Prescott is 1.20 points behind.

So whatever separation you're referring to hasn't happened yet?

Edited by mbell317

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