Stallion

Matt Boyd 2019 Outlook

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Just carved up the Yankees lineup to the tune of 12 K's in 6 innings, and has now opened the year with 2 straight performances of 10+ K's.

 

Not often that you'll find someone with this strikeout potential available in 60% of leagues (Yahoo). What are your thoughts on his ROS outlook?

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He had my curiousity when he posted a swstr% of 17% last game when his previous career high was 10%

 

He now has my attention

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Love Boyd this year. This is what I wrote in the sleeper thread:

One of my favorite late round starting pitcher values this year is Matthew Boyd. He's currently got an NFBC ADP around 325 making him an SP8 or so. I'm always a bit of a sucker for a best shape of my life story and apparently he's shed 15lbs of fat without sacrificing strength (https://www.mlb.com/news/matthew-boyd-using-data-driven-routine/c-303724218). He started last year with some diminished velocity, but it rose throughout the year and he finished with a 2nd half k/9 of 9.00 and a bb/9 of 1.88. He also finished the year with a solid 1.16 whip. He had some pretty dramatic home/road splits (2.63ERA at home and 5.89 on the road) so if you carefully deploy him in his starts I think you could have great value here. My plan is to start him at home and in road starts at KC, Minnesota etc, but bench him on the road against the big boy lineups in the AL.

 

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I don't even know why I even bother preparing for a fantasy baseball season. 

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9 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I don't even know why I even bother preparing for a fantasy baseball season. 

 

So you can draft guys like Boyd.

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10 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

So you can draft guys like Boyd.

Or strahm or Hampson or Voit. I'm going to go shake my fist and yell at a cloud now. 

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1 hour ago, Stallion said:

Just carved up the Yankees lineup to the tune of 12 K's in 6 innings, and has now opened the year with 2 straight performances of 10+ K's.

 

Not often that you'll find someone with this strikeout potential available in 60% of leagues (Yahoo). What are your thoughts on his ROS outlook?

Don’t short-change him that 13th K against my Yanks (the human whiff machines).

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Don’t short-change him that 13th K against my Yanks (the human whiff machines).

 

Yeah I realised that right after my window to edit the OP closed 😂

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The more pronounced slider spin axis is causing about two more inches of both horizontal and vertical break this season.

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I'm not buying..... his minor league numbers and last few years say that all these Ks are a mirage.   He's done this against Toronto .....and still lost and the Yankees who are just missing everything right now,  including their roster.   Detroit has no offense and eventually no run support will ultimately be Boyd's demise.  I will stay away. 

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44 minutes ago, panthers528 said:

I'm not buying..... his minor league numbers and last few years say that all these Ks are a mirage.   He's done this against Toronto .....and still lost and the Yankees who are just missing everything right now,  including their roster.   Detroit has no offense and eventually no run support will ultimately be Boyd's demise.  I will stay away. 

His fastball is faster by a couple ticks, his slider is breaking more, he's in the best shape of his life, and he's in one of the worst hitting divisions of this decade.

 

I bought and I'm still buying where I can. 

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This.

 

The man has - 23 STRIKEOUTS - through 11.1 innings and has thus far doubled his strikeout rate from last season while tripling the average movement on his out pitch.  Better to take a chance and force this man onto your roster only to drop him later than to miss out on what could be a true breakout.

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spacer.png

 

Currently sitting behind only deGrom in SwStr%

I feel like he's not this good but look at that babip. Idk what's goin on.

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Feels like the Corbin breakout. Sure it's a tiny sample, but SwStr% is one of the first rates to stabilize. You can't fake that many swings and misses.

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He should be owned just for his amazing work in Uganda and for being a great human being. OK, well, maybe not owned, but appreciated for sure.

 

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16 minutes ago, SpartyinFoCo said:

He should be owned just for his amazing work in Uganda and for being a great human being. OK, well, maybe not owned, but appreciated for sure.

 

Speaking of which... how's he gonna fight slavery in Uganda and then OWN the Yankees?!!

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I always load up on the pitching "sleepers" in my draft and then stick to them through the beginning of the season to give them a chance. Of course, I always miss out on the dark horse guys who didn't get drafted and broke out to finish top-20.

Well not this year, fellas! I've got two tickets to the Shoemaker/Boyd Train. All aboard! Our first stop is "Desperation Junction," followed by a brief stay over in "I Don't Know, Maybe!?" Complimentary drinks in the dining car. 

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In leagues where Wins are important, Boyd won't have as much value.  I road him a lot last year and had him on teams to start this year.  But when Wins-Losses are an important part of the equation, he loses a lot of value.

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11 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

In leagues where Wins are important, Boyd won't have as much value.  I road him a lot last year and had him on teams to start this year.  But when Wins-Losses are an important part of the equation, he loses a lot of value.

 

Matt Boyd last yaer and Matt Boyd this year are very different. Boyd was a somewhat streamable pitcher at times last year. But he's never had a two start stretch that looked anything like this.

 

Don't get me wrong, you're right about the Wins total. But let's not pretend at all that owning him last year or what he did last year has any effect on this current evaluation. The current praise heaped on Boyd is there on the basis that he has significantly improved over the offseason to miss more bats. The sample isn't large, but it is incredibly substantil, which is why he's worth the flier. 

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I picked Boyd up in one of my leagues.  I love the K potential, but I think his poor GB% (in the 30's) means a higher HR rate than we'd like.  The key for him will be whether or not those HR's come with runners on base or not.  With some luck he could pop an era under 4. He's not a flame thrower.  His fastball is in the 89-91 mph range.  This means there's less margin for error.

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