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Gerrit Cole 2019 Outlook

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26 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

I get that he hasn't fully lived up to what people were hoping for but I'm trying to buy right now. The long ball is catching up to him but a K:BB of 112:18 with a K/9 over 14 is pretty nuts. He's struggling and still rated in the top 10 AND he had an xFIP of Something like 2.3-2.4 a week ago (can't find current numbers unfortunately mobile). Sign me up. 

xFIP 2.23

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In keeper/dynasty leagues, is anyone concerned about him being a free agent and possibly leaving houston after this season? Boas and the Stros arent exactly a great match.

 

Before coming to the stros he wasnt anything special 

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25 minutes ago, kelle1sa said:

xFIP 2.23

 

That's assuming his HR rate (1.51 HR/9) will normalize to league avg (1.35 HR/9). I expect it to lower, but who knows how much. That being said he still has a 2.92 FIP which is still elite

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

That's assuming his HR rate (1.51 HR/9) will normalize to league avg (1.35 HR/9). I expect it to lower, but who knows how much. That being said he still has a 2.92 FIP which is still elite

 

I am am more a believer in FIP myself rather than xFIP.  Not sure why there is the belief a pitcher can not suppress home runs one way or another or is prone to giving them up.   

Although someone in another thread said it is proven xFIP is more reliable.  Who knows?

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1 minute ago, B&F said:

 

I am am more a believer in FIP myself rather than xFIP.  Not sure why there is the belief a pitcher can not suppress home runs one way or another or is prone to giving them up.   

Although someone in another thread said it is proven xFIP is more reliable.  Who knows?

 

At least both of them suggest better days are ahead. 

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He has the best xFIP in baseball by a good margin over Blake Snell, but you open up a game thread and numerous posters are in unison saying THIS GUY SUCKS!  

Never seen anything quite like it.

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His HR/9 last season was 0.85, good enough for top 15 in baseball.  His career rate is 0.84.  Surely people don’t think that his current rate of 1.51 will hold steady all year long?

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14 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

He has the best xFIP in baseball by a good margin over Blake Snell, but you open up a game thread and numerous posters are in unison saying THIS GUY SUCKS!  

Never seen anything quite like it.

 

323jnq.jpg

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

 

I am am more a believer in FIP myself rather than xFIP.  Not sure why there is the belief a pitcher can not suppress home runs one way or another or is prone to giving them up.   

Although someone in another thread said it is proven xFIP is more reliable.  Who knows?

It's certainly true that certain pitchers (particularly guys with good control) are able to suppress home runs better than others. However, if you look at large sample sizes, most pitchers will be fairly close to league average in home run rate (or within a few percentage points thereof). As such, without trying to deduce what an individual pitcher's true-talent home run rate, you can use the league average rate and it will be more predictive of future results than using that pitcher's year-to-date home run rate. The big thing we're trying to get at with xFIP is that you're reducing small sample size errors, since home run rate fluctuates wildly early on in the season.

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XFIP: 1. Gerrit Cole 2.36, 2. Blake Snell 2.67, Max Scherzer 2.90, Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.93

That’s it, those are the only guys under 3.00

His HR/9 of 1.59 is right there with some of the worst starters in the league, unfortunately.  That’s why a lot of his owners are pissed off (given Cole’s draft slot).  But remember, his career HR/9 rate is pretty low (about half of his current rate).  Unless it’s just “one of those years”, that ratio should start to normalize a bit.

Wins are a team stat, I can’t fault him for the paltry total.  Last night was a case in point.

K/9: Gerrit Cole 13.82, Chris Sale 12.80, Blake Snell 12.41

If not for Ryu (15-to-1), his 7-1 K/BB would be the best in the league.

 

 

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Proud Owners rejoice!

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On 7/7/2019 at 8:39 AM, Tommy Lee Jones said:

This dude just keeps trucking.  3.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 170 K in 116 IP.  Ridiculous.

 

I like to call him the 2nd best pitcher in baseball.

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Guy is special.  Dots corners of the strike zone at 98-100.  

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Sincere question. 

Is it possible for a starting pitcher to carry a team to a standard roto championship?  

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I'm more shocked that he only has two pages!! Just goes to show that we all expect him to do well. He has been solid all season.

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A short thread is exactly what you want to see for a guy with Cole's ADP. Verlander is still on page 1. Guys like Kluber, Goldy, and Sale are up to 5-6 pages.

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It’s actually a very shameful thread for a guy who is on pace for like 10,000 strikeouts.

The early season game threads tell the story, but we won’t shame those who have surely moved onto football by now.

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3 minutes ago, brooklynfinest42 said:

this guy is a second rounder borderline first next year...  carrying fantasy teams.. throwing video game pitches 

 

They really are.  It isn't even really the movement that amazes me.  He is dotting the edges of the plate at 98-99 consistently.   Lot's of guys have crazy movement on pitches.  Nobody has that much velocity with command.

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He gave up 6 ERs against the White Sox on May 22nd (which took his ERA to 4.11), which seemed to be the peak "panic time" for, to be frank, impatient and irrational owners.  Since that start, he has given up 16 ERs over 11 starts, with 17BB/105K over 71 innings and has lowered his ERA over a full run to 3.03 on the season.

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On my board hes the number 1 pitcher next year.  Verlander and max have too much age and mielage for me.

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3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

On my board hes the number 1 pitcher next year.  Verlander and max have too much age and mielage for me.

 

I agree. But is anyone worried about his free agency? He only got studly when he got to Houston. If he leaves houston, do you see some regression? It's an unique question but one that i think is somewhat valid. 

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