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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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So he's now to the point where we don't even comment on his majestic bombs? I like it. Bonafide stud.

Have all of his homers been to dead center? I can't imagine what will happen when he starts pulling them more.

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Tripped out of the box and looked to twist an ankle or something during his 3rd AB. Stayed in the game after looking a little gimpy. Manager said he taped it up and was fine after that but something to monitor... this is my major concern with him. Even at 20 I feel like he's going to struggle to stay healthy with that physique. 

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50 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

So he's now to the point where we don't even comment on his majestic bombs? I like it. Bonafide stud.

Have all of his homers been to dead center? I can't imagine what will happen when he starts pulling them more.

 

Just another day at the office for Vladdy.

Sad times for the haters who were scared to invest a 4th-5th round pick on him.

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Posted (edited)

SSS, cherry-picking, etc. caveat:

last 14 days: .333/.404/.714, 5HR, 8R, 10RBI, 10%BB, 8%K, 193 wRC+ (10th best in the MLB during this time period)

Edited by osb_tensor
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9 hours ago, absknicks said:

Tripped out of the box and looked to twist an ankle or something during his 3rd AB. Stayed in the game after looking a little gimpy. Manager said he taped it up and was fine after that but something to monitor... this is my major concern with him. Even at 20 I feel like he's going to struggle to stay healthy with that physique. 

For sure. But being able to use the DH will help a lot.

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10 hours ago, absknicks said:

Tripped out of the box and looked to twist an ankle or something during his 3rd AB. Stayed in the game after looking a little gimpy. Manager said he taped it up and was fine after that but something to monitor... this is my major concern with him. Even at 20 I feel like he's going to struggle to stay healthy with that physique. 

I think he'll be fine until he's not.

Like Prince Fielder.

Agreed that I don't see him in his prime in his late 30s or even mid 30s at that matter.

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14 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I think he'll be fine until he's not.

Like Prince Fielder. 

Agreed that I don't see him in his prime in his late 30s or even mid 30s at that matter.

Unsure why Prince Fielders weight has anything to do with Vlad's.  Prince Fielder had a 547 consecutive game streak and had his career cut short do to a neck injury.  I'm not a doctor but I don't think his weight had anything to do with it.  Similar to Peyton Manning, where weight was not an issue.  Injuries happen to ALL professional athletes.  Claiming a 20 year old is going to have injury issues because he's not "skinny" seems like a stretch.

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I'm all for fat shaming - I've joked on here too... But the Vlad weight concerns are overblown on here. There will be BSOHL reports like Devers in the next few years - you watch.

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1 hour ago, kelle1sa said:

Unsure why Prince Fielders weight has anything to do with Vlad's.  Prince Fielder had a 547 consecutive game streak and had his career cut short do to a neck injury.  I'm not a doctor but I don't think his weight had anything to do with it.  Similar to Peyton Manning, where weight was not an issue.  Injuries happen to ALL professional athletes.  Claiming a 20 year old is going to have injury issues because he's not "skinny" seems like a stretch.

 

1 hour ago, bradwatson said:

I'm all for fat shaming - I've joked on here too... But the Vlad weight concerns are overblown on here. There will be BSOHL reports like Devers in the next few years - you watch.

 

Vlad has some extra weight in the midsection, but his quads and backside look like he could squat a small house for fun.  He just turned 20, I think we're about a decade away from any of these weight-related concerns coming true.  

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he may have the strongest lower half in all of baseball and he's only 20.....let that sink in

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Posted (edited)

i searched this specific topic and didn't find that it had already been mentioned, but apologies if it has..

according to statcast, vlad owns the 2nd and 13th hardest hit balls of the season, 118.9 and 115.5 mph, respectively. 

he's not at the top of any statcast leaderboards for the various stats related to average/percentage of well hit balls, but i've got a feeling it's coming. the power is there, and the results have been trending upward. the biggest negative so far has been launch angle, which is currently at 7 degrees for the season. this is pretty low and hanging around with guys like chad pinder and nick markakis. judging by the below graphic, i've got a feeling this is in the process of improving.

edit: obviously the rolling sample of 50 has only recently been reached and couple of hot games can skew what the overall line will look like with more batted balls, but its nice to see improvement.

image.thumb.png.0eb20aac82fa992bca5e1b0656100ce8.png

Edited by osb_tensor
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0-fer since twisting his ankle coming out of the box the other night

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16 minutes ago, absknicks said:

0-fer since twisting his ankle coming out of the box the other night

 

That's 0-11.  I mean you are right with the facts, but are you thinking there's a correlation there? 

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On 5/23/2019 at 10:53 AM, osb_tensor said:

 

according to statcast, vlad owns the 2nd and 13th hardest hit balls of the season, 118.9 and 115.5 mph, respectively. 

Fwiw there is some predictive value in how hard someone hits the ball. I can't recall where I read it (probably pitcherlist or fangraphs), but batted balls with a high exit velocity (I think it was 110+ mph?) are slightly predictive of future production. Maybe someone else recalls the article and can share it. I'm still relatively cool on his redraft value but he's shaping up to be a long term star. 

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22 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

That's 0-11.  I mean you are right with the facts, but are you thinking there's a correlation there? 

 

Yeah, although I’m hoping I’m wrong. He was on fire prior to doing that.

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On 5/19/2019 at 7:47 PM, bradwatson said:

Lol he's a stud just like we thought. Not seeing many bust posts these days.

 

This is why it's never good to chest thump over small samples. He now has a 92 wRC+ and .716 OPS through 111 PA. He's been below league average so far. 

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7 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

This is why it's never good to chest thump over small samples. He now has a 92 wRC+ and .716 OPS through 111 PA. He's been below league average so far. 

 

Vlad just isn't a typical prospect. I have absolute confidence that he'll be well above league average moving forward.

I was looking at some Statcast stuff earlier and I came across something interesting.

You know who leads the majors in batted balls over 115 mph (with 3)?

Yeah, it's Vlad.

He hits the ball far too hard to all fields.

His current BABIP is .243. That will not continue.

Even being extremely conservative and bumping his BABIP to .300 would bring his batting average from .235 to .278.

The difference between the .243 BABIP and the .300 BABIP? It's about 4 hits.

And he's currently on pace for 30 homers.

If he was currently on pace for .278 with 30 homers, people would be saying he's doing exactly what everyone expected him to do.

Let me make this is simple as I can: Vlad is doing good things and will only get better. Vlad is good.

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3 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Vlad just isn't a typical prospect. I have absolute confidence that he'll be well above league average moving forward.

I was looking at some Statcast stuff earlier and I came across something interesting.

You know who leads the majors in batted balls over 115 mph (with 3)?

Yeah, it's Vlad.

He hits the ball far too hard to all fields.

His current BABIP is .243. That will not continue.

Even being extremely conservative and bumping his BABIP to .300 would bring his batting average from .235 to .278.

The difference between the .243 BABIP and the .300 BABIP? It's about 4 hits.

And he's currently on pace for 30 homers.

If he was currently on pace for .278 with 30 homers, people would be saying he's doing exactly what everyone expected him to do.

Let me make this is simple as I can: Vlad is doing good things and will only get better. Vlad is good.

 

Yes, i certainly hope he gets better, and I agree the statcast data is encouraging. But the idea that someone could be satisfied with him as a 4th round pick in a redraft right now is absurd. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Yes, i certainly hope he gets better, and I agree the statcast data is encouraging. But the idea that someone could be satisfied with him as a 4th round pick in a redraft right now is absurd. 

 

I expect Vlad to play to roughly a .290-.300-ish batting average, 30 HR-ish pace for the remainder of the season. So I expect him to be better than a typical 4th round pick going forward. But if you play in a Roto league then sure he's not on track to deliver 4th round value by the end of the season. Whether or not you're happy with having Vlad on your team is going to depend on a lot of factors.

If we're talking about long-term dynasty leagues, Vlad is in the very top tier along with players like Trout and Acuña.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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31 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

I expect Vlad to play to roughly a .290-.300-ish batting average, 30 HR-ish pace for the remainder of the season. So I expect him to be better than a typical 4th round pick going forward. But if you play in a Roto league then sure he's not on track to deliver 4th round value by the end of the season. Whether or not you're happy with having Vlad on your team is going to depend on a lot of factors.

If we're talking about long-term dynasty leagues, Vlad is in the very top tier along with players like Trout and Acuña.

How? He is batting .230ish for the season and the last 7 days with another Ofer tonight. Seems like he will struggle all season long

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

How? He is batting .230ish for the season and the last 7 days with another Ofer tonight. Seems like he will struggle all season long

 

ya, he has 1 good week and now hes 3 for his last 22 with no homer and 0 rbi

 

im not saying hes bad, but i think youll see some crazy hot streaks but a bunch of 3 for 21s to go with them.  id say you are better off expecting .240-260 with a 25 hr pace.  which will absolutely NOT return 4th round value...in whatever format.

Edited by jfazz23
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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

ya, he has 1 good week and now hes 3 for his last 22 with no homer and 0 rbi

 

im not saying hes bad, but i think youll see some crazy hot streaks but a bunch of 3 for 21s to go with them.  id say you are better off expecting .240-260 with a 25 hr pace.  which will absolutely NOT return 4th round value...in whatever format.

Agreed...unless some stacaster has some data in his hitting profile that says he is hitting the ball hard at someone or something. He is returning nothing at the moment

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

I expect Vlad to play to roughly a .290-.300-ish batting average, 30 HR-ish pace for the remainder of the season. So I expect him to be better than a typical 4th round pick going forward. But if you play in a Roto league then sure he's not on track to deliver 4th round value by the end of the season. Whether or not you're happy with having Vlad on your team is going to depend on a lot of factors.

If we're talking about long-term dynasty leagues, Vlad is in the very top tier along with players like Trout and Acuña.

 

This right here is a super important detail. Everyone knows his value is very different in keeper vs season long leagues. But no one really talks about the difference in roto vs h2h value. He has an elite batting profile, even for a top prospect, and while baseball is not super predictable almost every measure we have suggests he's only going to get better even in the course of this year.  So do you need season long roto numbers, or would you prefer high value player by the end of the year? Acuna didn't really take off till the end of the year but when he did I'm sure he won a few people titles last year. And no as good as Acuna was he wasn't at the same level of prospect Vlad was.  The draft value argument is simply dumb without a ton of league context. 

Edited by Baur10

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