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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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He looks great. Statcast data is elite. Expected batting average of .301 suggest he's been very unlucky. He had a rough first few weeks, and even with his dreadful start his current pace is around a .270 avg with 30 bombs, 65 runs, and 80 RBIs - pretty damn good for a 20 year old. He can't help the runs or RBIs with his lineup being s---. I really don't see what there is to gripe about at this point. He's a stud, and he's gotten better each week.

Numbers by month:

April: .214    .353    .286    .639

May:  .253    .317    .484    .801

June: .325    .349    .475    .824

 

Is this good?

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Even if you don't want to look at advanced stats and predictive models try this one on for size.

 

2019 Vladimir Guerrero:

.268/.329/.463 16/7/19/0 30K:14BB in 39 games

 

2018 Ronald Acuna:

1st Half: .249/.304/.438  24/7/19/2 56K:12BB in 43 games

2nd Half: .322/.403/.625 54/19/45/14 67K:33BB n 68 games

 

I swear some of ya'll have the memory of a goldfish. 

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Posted (edited)

Has his first two good games in a while (against Orioles pitching) and the projection guys come fast and furious to chest thump. Like clockwork. 

His fWAR is currently 0.3 thru 40 games. His wRC+ has been hovering around 100 (league average) for weeks but after these last two days it's up to a more respectable 111 wRC+.

I don't think anyone's disputing the long-term potential... it's more a question of whether or not he'll become a valuable asset in redrafts ROS. 

Edited by absknicks
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5 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Has his first two good games in a while (against Orioles pitching) and the projection guys come fast and furious to chest thump. Like clockwork. 

His fWAR is currently 0.3 thru 40 games. His wRC+ has been hovering around 100 (league average) for weeks but after these last two days it's up to a more respectable 111 wRC+.

I don't think anyone's disputing the long-term potential... it's more a question of whether or not he'll become a valuable asset in redrafts ROS. 

 

Pretty much the exact opposite.  The projections came out in response to this comment:

"So where are all y’all hyping up vladdy as the number 2 hitter ? Told y’all it doesn’t matter about what his per 162 numbers are. Since he’s joined the big leagues he is on average a top 150-200 player when you take into account what everyone else in the majors is doing "

I agree that chest thumping after a few good games is dumb. But so are the "I told ya so" comments after 30 games of progressive improvement in a rookie of Vlad's caliber. Only time will tell.  

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Has his first two good games in a while (against Orioles pitching) and the projection guys come fast and furious to chest thump. Like clockwork. 

His fWAR is currently 0.3 thru 40 games. His wRC+ has been hovering around 100 (league average) for weeks but after these last two days it's up to a more respectable 111 wRC+.

I don't think anyone's disputing the long-term potential... it's more a question of whether or not he'll become a valuable asset in redrafts ROS. 

This...He is garbage in redrafts and could not even take advantage of Orioles pitching( grounders that go for singles don’t count...this isn’t softball). Even jarrod dyson is going yard this week. Vlad is Eric Hosmer at 3b until he adjusts to mlb pitchers

Edited by Dr. Whom

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12 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Pretty much the exact opposite.  The projections came out in response to this comment:

"So where are all y’all hyping up vladdy as the number 2 hitter ? Told y’all it doesn’t matter about what his per 162 numbers are. Since he’s joined the big leagues he is on average a top 150-200 player when you take into account what everyone else in the majors is doing "

I agree that chest thumping after a few good games is dumb. But so are the "I told ya so" comments after 30 games of progressive improvement in a rookie of Vlad's caliber. Only time will tell.  

 

The progressive improvement you speak of is debatable. It only looks progressive because of the last two games against O's pitching. Unless you're talking about improvement from his truly dreadful start which everyone knew wasn't representative of his talent level. 

I just think it's a little disingenuous how the season long extrapolations only pop up after a couple of good games... so we always get them on the upswing but never on the downswing.

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24 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

The progressive improvement you speak of is debatable. It only looks progressive because of the last two games against O's pitching. Unless you're talking about improvement from his truly dreadful start which everyone knew wasn't representative of his talent level. 

I just think it's a little disingenuous how the season long extrapolations only pop up after a couple of good games... so we always get them on the upswing but never on the downswing.

 

I agree with your point but it goes both ways. wRC arguments crop up more when he's in a mini slump.  Pretty much any trend is "debatable" right now in him. Virtually none of his numbers have reached a stabilization point outside maybe K rate so it's all premature.  Doesn't mean people can't respond with some potentuslly positive trends and statcast data when there's yet another "lol this guy is garbage" post, at least as long as they're willing to recognize the limitations 

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Geez, hit by pitch. Ran the bases. Now removed from the game as the Blue Jays re-take the field. Hope it's precautionary and nothing more obviously.

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Any reports.  Saw he stayed in the game and ran the bases.

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Hoping for the best but it looked bad. 

 

His reaction was tamer than i thought it would be thought so maybe he rolled with it or something. Either that or the kid is tough AF

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X-Rays negative 

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5 hours ago, Baur10 said:

 

I agree with your point but it goes both ways. wRC arguments crop up more when he's in a mini slump.  Pretty much any trend is "debatable" right now in him. Virtually none of his numbers have reached a stabilization point outside maybe K rate so it's all premature.  Doesn't mean people can't respond with some potentuslly positive trends and statcast data when there's yet another "lol this guy is garbage" post, at least as long as they're willing to recognize the limitations 

I never said he’s garbage , I just stated he hasn’t been preforming as a top 45 pick in redrafts so far. Advanced stats aside , in most point leagues and 5x5/6x6 leagues Vladdy has been a disappointment thus far,  yet people are saying there glad they drafted him? Am I wrong to say if it was Rhys Hoskins ( similar adp ) put up numbers like vladdy there wouldn’t be all these positive posts. 

A matter a fact no other top 50 players would be getting this praise on a forum for going 2/5 with a rbi.

dont get triggered that I stated the unpopular facts , he hasn’t been preforming 

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8 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

I never said he’s garbage , I just stated he hasn’t been preforming as a top 45 pick in redrafts so far. Advanced stats aside , in most point leagues and 5x5/6x6 leagues Vladdy has been a disappointment thus far,  yet people are saying there glad they drafted him? Am I wrong to say if it was Rhys Hoskins ( similar adp ) put up numbers like vladdy there wouldn’t be all these positive posts. 

A matter a fact no other top 50 players would be getting this praise on a forum for going 2/5 with a rbi.

dont get triggered that I stated the unpopular facts , he hasn’t been preforming 

 

🙄 No one is "triggered" by your opinion, don't flatter yourself. I have yet to see anyone use that term that wasn't either trolling or a teenager.

 

1) Yes no other top 45 pick would get the pass Vlad does, mostly because no other top 45 pick is a 20 year old mega prospect called up multiple weeks into the season.  Again Acuna was pretty much universally a 1st round pick this year and started off worse than Vlad did to start last year. Let's pump the brakes.

 

2) He wasn't a top 45 pick in most formats.  Average ADP between ESPN/Yahoo/CBS/RTS/NFBC/FT was 53.4.  Rhys Hoskins was 40.2. So no, not "similar ADP".  Nice try though.

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Whew, all that extra mass he carrys in those hands saved him.

That padding comes in handy eh?  Pun intended. 

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So he’s ok to keep playing it’s assummed?

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46 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

🙄 No one is "triggered" by your opinion, don't flatter yourself. I have yet to see anyone use that term that wasn't either trolling or a teenager.

 

1) Yes no other top 45 pick would get the pass Vlad does, mostly because no other top 45 pick is a 20 year old mega prospect called up multiple weeks into the season.  Again Acuna was pretty much universally a 1st round pick this year and started off worse than Vlad did to start last year. Let's pump the brakes.

 

2) He wasn't a top 45 pick in most formats.  Average ADP between ESPN/Yahoo/CBS/RTS/NFBC/FT was 53.4.  Rhys Hoskins was 40.2. So no, not "similar ADP".  Nice try though.

 

He was going later then 53 if you drafted a week before the season in most your leagues like i did many times late 5th or 6th round. If you got in leagues that started a week or two after the season started he was falling even further. I'm sure some people took him 4th round but many also took him later then that depending on if you drafted post injury. 

Not in one of my 11 leagues did he go before Hoskins.

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He was suppose to have the night off.

Also think he looks like he has lost a few pounds.

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18 hours ago, absknicks said:

Has his first two good games in a while (against Orioles pitching) and the projection guys come fast and furious to chest thump. Like clockwork. 

His fWAR is currently 0.3 thru 40 games. His wRC+ has been hovering around 100 (league average) for weeks but after these last two days it's up to a more respectable 111 wRC+.

I don't think anyone's disputing the long-term potential... it's more a question of whether or not he'll become a valuable asset in redrafts ROS. 

What are you talking about with your "last 2 games" nonsense? Do some games count and others don't? Before his "last 2 games" he had an 0fer and a 2 hit game and then a few 0fers and another 2 hit game. His game log looks like a baseball player's game log. He's a young stud and you sound salty for no reason.

I want Vlad to be an absolute monster, and I think he will be in a few years. I want him to be awesome this year, but a sick, twisted part of me wants him to just suck so all you guys who drafted him too high will burn. You don't draft rookies in the first 5 rounds, and any of you who did it deserve pain for your awful decision. You come on here and complain because you made a bad decision, and it's nobody's fault but your own.

Nobody should be salty owning Vlad. He had unreal expectations, and he hasn't met them but he's still been good. If you want to see someone who has truly flopped look at Jose Ramirez - owners of that bum should be salty.

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1 hour ago, motown magic said:

He was suppose to have the night off.

Also think he looks like he has lost a few pounds.

They sit him a ton. They should stop. Guys get their rest naturally on days with nicks & bruises. Toronto is a poorly run organization

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Is he in the HOF yet? Sliced bread is scared of losing the top spot.

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